WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Jowy]

You are right, that post looks really bad now that we know much more.

[Azarius]

First thanks for being a good sport about this Gazglum. Sorry about wanting to kill you and everything, your claim did seem too late to me.

I really thought we had a wolf on the block between them. So random question, was the village role pm in the first post at the very beginning of the game?

[Azarius]

Jowy, since I'm one of your top suspects, I would be interested in hearing a scenario from you on how night two went now that you have it confirmed that I visited novice.

[novice]

So random question, was the village role pm in the first post at the very beginning of the game?

Yes.

[Jowy]

Jowy, since I'm one of your top suspects, I would be interested in hearing a scenario from you on how night two went now that you have it confirmed that I visited novice.

Ah right! That does make it seem very unlikely that you are scum together. It improves your position individually as well, as we now know you have an ability that you can use on someone. Could still be a fake claim by scum who has another ability, or a scum roleblocker. But I've talked a lot about odds this game, and the odds of you rolling wolf have gone lower now that we know for sure you did visit novice.

[Azza]

Still keen to play.

Well I sure got to play a heap more.

[Gazglum]

Struck down from above! That must be my most spectacular exit since suiciding into a duel with a confirmed townie. Fun playing with you all, and good luck town.

[Qgqqqqq]

Ok I've basically stayed away from the game for a few days, and will probably need to re-read more to get back into it.

I don't know if it will make a difference at this stage, but I can address one aspect of my play that was pretty schizophrenic. I turned on Azarius so savagely at the start of the day because i had tracked him to Novice during the night. Given scum seemed to have been blocked, and Novice seemed an obviosu target for scum, that implied that either Azarius was a jailer or a failed assassin.

Why would a failed assassin be seen visiting me?

If you were jailed/baned (as you were)?

Well that actually resolved itself pretty neatly. I thought at least one of our lynchees would be scum which would probably have been even more awkward. Now, scum lost a mislynch candidate but apparently got recompensed behind the scenes.

Yeah, they probably got another role or something, we definitely seem to have caught a break here.

I have to admit I've kind of lost steam with the pause though, but we do have lots of new info available now to analyze with a fresh mind.
.....
Oh and thanks for playing, Gazglum and Azza. Phenomenal effort, Gazglum. Maybe you were even right about Mattimeo.

Definitely well played there Gazglum, you managed to push a almost inevitable lynch away...unfortunate that you died anyway

It just couldn't be easy :P There is more to analyze now that we know the alignments of the two dead, but my top suspects are Azarius, Zak and Novice. Not sure yet what order would get us the most information. I've pretty much taken my town leans off of everyone who were on MJW, because it would have ultimately lead to two villager miss-lynches next. Now we only had to miss-lynch one of them though, thanks to the mistake, so that's at least a positive thing for us. Shouldn't forget about Q either, but I kinda think he would have tripped by now if he has a wolf, because of how much he writes. There were a few small slip-ups I thought, but no-one else agreed with me on them, so I guess I was jumping at shadows.

Now the "long shot" theory of a scum play with Azarius fake claim is much more relevant. But the thing is, those theories do assume that scum voluntarily no lynched in the night. I still question whether the scum would find it worth it to hand us one more miss-lynch in return. If Azarius really did block the night kill, then it was either scum trying to kill novice or novice being the one who was supposed to perform a kill in the night. Atm I only have three suspects. If Azarius and Novice are both village, that only leaves Zak as a wolf, but there should be two left, not one. And I also doubt Zak would want to kill novice because following novice is the perfect cover for him. So maybe Azarius is the only village of the three, and novice and zak are a scum duo, which would certainly explain their early game shenanigans. Novice seems to be the most likely to be scum in either scenario (whether Azarius' claim is true or not), so my vote is for him for now.

I'll have to re-read and see if it's worth it to bring any new suspect on the table.

Personally I'm feeling suspicious of Jowy, Jkaen and Zak. I want to re-examine Novice though, I suppose if he was wolf that would be the time for him to kill...
You say it only leaves zak as scum - do you see Jkaen/matt/I as impossible scum now? I don't get why the "long shot" theory about Azarius takes precedence over the very possibility of Jkaen/matt/I as scum. This seems like you're getting too caught up in the theory that you're not looking at the possibilities.
I'm not going to auto-vote Jowy again, because I want a chance to re-read with those flips in mind.
I dislike how you're talking about how it would have lead to mislynchs like you already know their alignment.....what is that bit supposed to mean, anyway?
Out of curiosity, what slip-ups? I remember that weird exchange about laughter, but was there anything else?
What early game shenanigans?

Jowy, since I'm one of your top suspects, I would be interested in hearing a scenario from you on how night two went now that you have it confirmed that I visited novice.

Ah right! That does make it seem very unlikely that you are scum together. It improves your position individually as well, as we now know you have an ability that you can use on someone. Could still be a fake claim by scum who has another ability, or a scum roleblocker. But I've talked a lot about odds this game, and the odds of you rolling wolf have gone lower now that we know for sure you did visit novice.

So who else do you suspect at this point, given Azarius' unlikely position? Or do you think you have the wolves in zak/novice?

[Jkaen]

Can we have a first post update please?

[Jkaen]

Vote tally when Azza votes Mattimeo on day one, courtesy of my development version of MafiaHelper:




Note that Azza's weakly founded vote makes it 4-4 (Gazglum's vote on Mattimeo is listed on Matt).

Also, Mattimeo pushed MJW to 4 votes when nobody else had more than 2, that's a pretty good village tell on Mattimeo. (And shows why Azza's vote on Mattimeo is poorly founded, as it's a bit early to start voting self defense at that point. (Azza answered this later saying it was self defense because Mattimeo was going offline.)

Okay, Azza pushed it to 4-4 but was town. Q was on Mattimeo before the MJW wagon built up. JKaen, however, pushed it to 3-4 just before Azza made it 4-4. Here was JKaen's justification:

Well, we at least got 1 more post out of Serdoa, and truth be told I am not going to push hard for a day 1 policy lynch.

The MJW train as has been pointed out is just so obvious as a day 1 safe bet for votes, I can't bring myself to vote there as he is generally just a mislynch waiting to happen.

Mattimeo however complains about the discussion being all on zak's post, then mentions nothing else in his email, finally (as the last person of the day) voting the easy MJW. Also Serdoa and MJW mislynches tell us pretty much nothing, if we do end up wrong on Matt, then there is at least a link through to Gazglum that we can poke at a bit

Mattimeo

Not a brilliant case, but best option I can currently see day 1

Serdoa jumped on this post, and was night killed.

Jkaen

So I vote for somebody who may or may not be village on day 1.

Doing so I take some pressure off scum who I later help lynch anyway.

Using Serdoa as a weapon against me is stupid. It was day 1 so there was little to go on, and as has already been covered he was throwing a lot of questions at you towards the end of the day too.

Finally I still stand by what I said, a day 1 lynch of MJW I think would have given us very few tells to go off based on his behaviour (heck what did we trace from him posts interaction wise when we got him day 2?) whereas (the villager) Gazglum pushing Mattimeo very hard was a clear interaction that would have been useful knowledge later.

Don't see a good case here Novice