RB goes medieval - a CK:DV succesion game

[regoarrarr]

This is a great thread, thanks.

I played very little CK, as in one game only which I never finished. The game was quite funny. I wanted to start small to get a feel for the game, so I started as a count (I think) of Constanta by the Black Sea. Before I knew what was going on, I became Duke of Varna, and then... Emperor of Byzantium (gasp!). That much for wanting to stay small

Kalin

That reminds me of the game I was playing recently. I started off as Duke of Bohemia (after it took me awhile how to figure out how to play as anything less than a king). Then all of a sudden the current King of Germany dies and I'm the successor! So yeah, talk about getting big out of nowhere!

[Mist]

[SIZE="6"]1079[/SIZE]

February 1075

*Our persistence paid off - Aukshayts experienced mass-scale conversions and is now properly Orthodox. Power previously in hands of clergy gets redistributed now.

*Principality of Chernigov got involved in a war with Cumans to the south. It got pretty mauled and ceased to be a power on the Russian stage. We'll have a powerful pagan obstacle if we ever decide to go after crown of Russia.

May 1075

*Svyatoslav developed a personality. Unfortunately it's one of a Sissy This does not bode well for his martial education.

July 1075

*Fosterling Oleg needs to be sent to school. He's poor across the board, but something might be squeezed out of his intrigue. Court Education it is.
*Since Aukshayts is Orthodox now we gave in to the demands to end their silly revolt. We were running out of rope to hang traitors anyhow

October 1075

*Construction of Courthouse began in Aukshayts

November 1075

*Davyd has thrown a hissy-fit about inheritance again. This time it mad him rebelious. He might need to die. But that would require 212 gold. Hmmm... Keep an eye on him.
*The Pope called a crusade for liberation of Jerusalem.

January 1076

*Rostislav the Bland grew up. He's still bland. Let's wait for the education outcome before deciding what to do with him.

February 1076

*Novogrod went to war again and again it's against the northern pagans.

May 1076

*Tile factory started in Polotsk
*Irina's time for school. Only thing she's decent at is diplomacy, so we send her off to the court. Also having her education sorted, we foster her out to Poland. Never enough improved relations.

July 1076

*Well, well. Rostislav became a Knowledgeable Tactician. That leave us with a second valid succession option. I'll marry him properly and give him a plot of land. Next player will have to decide whether we want an excellent military specialist ( Roman ) or a better rounded package ( Rostislav ) on the throne and give that person a second county.

September 1076

*Principality of Novogrod seems to be faring badly and various surrounding pagans are declaring war on it. I'm staying put for now, I'll wait for dust to settle and pick up interesting pieces.

January 1077

*Tile Factory started in Jacwiez

February 1077

*Divine Rights in Polotsk mean we have full coverage of this concept and can hike noble taxes. Crown duty up 10%.
*Finally after nearly 6 months of patient waiting, Constance de Normandie, third daughter of William, king of England came of age. marriage proposal was sent.

March 1077

*And was refused. Hmph.
*Therefore option B. Kunigunde von Weimar in Bavaria.
*Aukshayts completed a Courthouse. This is the last one in the realm to be built so we can hike up Burgher taxes. Tolls up 20%.
*Option B was also shot down. So plan C. Which is... Yeah, I'll get back to you on this.
*Cuman declared on Pereyeslavl. Man this is hard. I decided to honour the alliance but stay batch and watch how they fare. Pechengs were allied with Cuman and declared on us. Messy. Memo to myself, take first white peace coming this way. We really don't want to get involved in the south. We want big Cuman on our doorstep even less. Where are the Hungarians when you need them?

April 1077

*Our Diocese Bishop died of old age. There's no suitable replacement.

June 1077

*Rogovold developed a personality. He became a Critical Scholar.

July 1077

*Old Prince of Pereyeslavl died which spells the end of alliance. White peace request were sent to both pagan tribes we're at war with.
*Cumans refused.
*Pechengs refused

September 1077

*Alliance offer from Byzantium. Refused. They are at war with Seljuks and loosing, we want no part of that.
*For lack of better, or rather any, reasonable parties, Rostislav got married to Benedetta, a Master Theologian form Bishoproc of Aquilea.

*Invasion of Kurs was greenlighted to cut out a county for newly married.
*And Gleb challenged a courtier. Again This time he went to sight-see in Poland. With a depression

October 1077

*Fosterling Ksenia turned out to be a prodigy. Keep an eye on her, we will want to marry her into our family.
*Later that month... you just have got to see this

November 1077

*Tile factory completed in Polotsk

January 1078

*Oh, the rebels in Zhmud are still going strong. I know! Let's hang some more traitors :]

February 1078

*Conquest of Kurs completed and Rostislav given the title.

March 1078

*King of Poland considers himself our rival as of now. Relations plummeted. This will not end well.

April 1078

*Tile Factory started in Akshauyts

July 1078

*Tile Factory completed in Jacwiez
*The Prince started showing Stress symptoms. Considering the age I'm afraid he won't live much longer. Stress pushed us over efficiency limit again.
*Considering this I leveraged a rivalry to grab the claim to county of Beresty. We've got quite a bit of prestige, time to start using it.

November 1078

*Forestry started in Polotsk

December 1079

*Tribe of Livis went suicidal and declared on us.

Techs

Shortbow spreads in Aukshayts
Basilican Structures spreads in Aukshayts
Offensive Terrain spreads in Polotsk
Divine Rights spreads in Jacwiez
Soft Leather spreads in Aukshayts
Two-field System spreads to Zhmud
Handaxe spreads to Aukshayts
Slinged Javelin spreads in Zhmud
Stonepit spreads in Zhmud
Sculptures spreads to Jacwiez
Divine Rights spreads to Polotsk
Wood Ploughs spreads to Jacwiez
Shortbow spreads to Polotsk

***

All right, I've ended a year early because there's a decision to make now that next player will have to live with. Our prince just got stress, at this age he'll last maybe two years, this means we need to choose a successor. Whoever you go with, give him Jacwiez, it's the weakest province we're left with. Now an outlook

Triangles mean countries we're at war with.

Black can't reach us ( you can't move armies across neutral territories with hostile religion ) so don't worry about them. The war should fizzle out due to inaction, expect white peace offers within a year. If that doesn't happen, spend most of the gold on something and offer them whatever's left. AI sometimes takes pace offers involving whole treasury regardless of amount.

Red just declared on West Divina, so we got involved. They have a quarter of our forces so just steamroll them. Take Livis, vassal all else. Or just whatever works.

Purple hexes mark our current rivals.

Keep an eye on them. Rivalries are personal and will clear on death of the Prince.

Striped territories need to be taken for us to get the crown. If we take all the stripes, we will be able to vassalize stars which is kind of important as they carry unique ducal titles that can't be reassembled. If you can't see yourself fighting a successful war with Kiev either delay, or reconsider and just go after the stars and break the uniques.

That said you're not in a position for a much of conquest, our reputation hovers around Slightly Tarnished right now.

Here's the save : http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14578363/CK/y1079_Polotsk.zip

And good luck

Mist - just played
regoarrarr - UP
SleepingMoogle - on deck

[regoarrarr]

Uh... where do I put the save? I can't find where the other saved games are. Or I guess it doesn't matter.

To reply to some things you said earlier, I would be interested in an abbreviated version of education, as well as a rundown on the different tile improvements and what they do, and which ones are the best to build

[Mist]

Uh... where do I put the save? I can't find where the other saved games are. Or I guess it doesn't matter.

\secenarios\save games

To reply to some things you said earlier, I would be interested in an abbreviated version of education, as well as a rundown on the different tile improvements and what they do, and which ones are the best to build

Okay - Education TL;DR, and buildings will come today or tomorrow. I can also make a spreadsheet for calculations, but that might be an overkill

[Mist]

On Education

There are five education paths - general, diplomat, spymaster, steward and bishop

Generals are trained in the Army, bishops in the Monastery, everyone else at the Court.

Each education paths offers 4 outcomes. Let's call these Levels. Level 1 is poor, Level 4 is exceptional.

Ignoring all possible modifiers Level 2 is most likely to happen, followed by Level 1, Level 3 and Level 4.

Once child reaches 16 years of age education outcome is check is performed each day. Basic probabilities for levels are :
Level 1 - 0,066%
Level 2 - 0,077%
Level 3 - 0,058%
Level 4 - 0,046%

Or on a yearly basis
Level 1 - 21,41%
Level 2 - 24,51%
Level 3 - 19,01%
Level 4 - 15,52%

There are five general factor sets affecting this basic outcome
1) Attributes of the child
2) Character Traits of the child
3) Attributes, education Path and education Level of advisors
4) Mother's and Father's education Level and Path
5) Buildings present in Capital province

Let's do a path by path breakdown

1. Spymaster

*)Attributes

For good outcomes it's essential
-to have high intrigue ( 8 or more )

it's helpfull
-to have high diplomacy ( 8 or more )
-to have good health ( hidden stat, generally let's say not be stressed, ill or disfigured )

*) Parents

If father has the spymaster education he'll push the child towards the level he's at.

If father has other education he'll drag the child down if he is Level 1 or help him if he's Level 4. Levels 2 and 3 have no effect.

Mother affects the child in the same way as father.

*) Advisor

Realms Spymaster is the relevant advisor.

Advisor has no effect if his diplomacy is 6 or less.

Advisor will push the child towards the Level he's at, but only if his education is of Spymasters path. If the child is friends with the advisor, this effect increases.

If Advisors Intrigue is 10 or more it will increase the chance of better outcomes, and decrease the chance of ending with Level 1.

*) Traits

Following traits are helpful ( they make better outcomes more likely ) :

-Bastard
-Chaste
-Cruel
-Deceitful
-Harelip
-Hunchback
-Kinslayer
-Lisp
-Modest
-Sceptical
-Suspicious
-Wise

Following traits are mixed ( generally positive, but with drawbacks, like increasing chance for both Level 1 and Level 4 ) :

-Coward
-Indulgent
-Pragmatic
-Selfish
-Vengeful

Following traits are bad

-Clubfooted
-Crusader
-Depression
-Energetic
-Forgiving
-Generous
-Hostile
-Inbred
-Just
-Lazy
-Lustful
-Maniac
-Merciful
-Proud
-Reckless
-Romantic
-Schizofrenia
-Stubborn
-Stutter
-Temperate
-Trusting
-Valorous
-Weak Willed
-Zealous

Following traits are disqualifying :

-Arbitrary
-Excommunicated
-Heretic
-Honest

*) Buildings

Following buildings help achieve the better outcomes :

-Large Castle
-Library
-University
-School
-Royal Post
-Grand Palace
-Huge Castle

Example from the game calculated on a spreadsheet.

The child :
Rogovold.
Ma: 8
Di: 7
In: 7
St: 8
Sceptical, Suspicious
Not a friend with Spymaster

The Advisor :
Di : 9
In : 10
Spymaster Level 4

Fathers Education : General Level 3

Mother Education : Spymaster Level 2

No education affecting buildings in Polotsk.

Possible outcomes :
Spymaster Level 1 MttH ( in days ) = 1050 ( lvl1 base ) * 1 ( no modifiers from attributes ) * 1 ( character traits don't affect this level ) * 1.05 ( advisor's education ) * 1.15 ( from advisor's intrigue ) * 1 ( father not a spymaster and not extreme level, doesn't affect the outcome ) * 0.95 ( mother a lvl2 spymaster ) = 1204
This translates to a probability of 0,058%

Spymaster Level 2 MttH = 900 * 1.05 ( Sceptical ) * 0.95 ( Suspicious ) * 0,95 ( advisor's intrigue ) * 0.9 ( mother's education ) = 768
Translates to 0,09%

Spymaster Level 3 Mtth = 1200 * 0.95 ( Sceptical ) * 0.9 ( Suspicious ) * 0.95 ( advisor's education ) * 0.9 ( advisor's intrigue ) * 0.95 ( mother's education ) = 833
Translates to 0,083%

Spymaster Level 4 Mtth = 1500 * 0,9 ( Suspicious ) * 0.9 ( advisor's education ) * 0.9 ( advisor's intrigue ) = 1093
Translates to 0,063%

Now if we shift these probabilities to see how likely is each of these outcomes over a year period we get :
Spymaster 1 - 18,72%
Spymaster 2 - 27,74%
Spymaster 3 - 25,89%
Spymaster 4 - 20,41%

<..TBC..>

[Mist]

2. Diplomat

*) Attributes

It's essential to have
-high Diplomacy ( 8 or more )

It's helpful to
-be in good health

It's marginally helpful
-to have high intrigue ( 8 or more )

*) Parents

As with Spymaster

*) Advisor

Realms Chancellor is the relevant advisor.

Everything else as with Spymaster

*) Traits

Following traits are helpful :

-Amiable
-Coward
-Energetic
-Forgiving
-Gregarious
-Honest
-Modest
-Romantic
-Wise

Following traits are mixed

-Crusader
-Indulgent
-Temperate
-Valorous
-Zealous

Following traits are bad

-Chaste
-Clubfooted
-Cruel
-Deceitful
-Generous
-Harelip
-Hostile
-Hunchback
-Inbred
-Kinslayer
-Lazy
-Lisp
-Lustful
-Maniac
-Merciful
-Pragmatic
-Proud
-Reckless
-Sceptical
-Schizofrenia
-Shy
-Stutter
-Suspicious
-Vengeful
-Weak Willed

Following traits are disqualifying

-Arbitrary
-Bastard
-Depression
-Excommunicated
-Heretic
-Selfish

*) Buildings

Following buildings help achieve better outcomes

-Large Castle
-Grand Shipyard
-Library
-University
-Royal Post
-Grand Palace
-Civilian Harbour

Example calculations again

Let's take Rogovold once more
The child :
Ma: 8
Di: 7
In: 7
St: 8
Sceptical, Suspicious
Friend with the Chancellor

Advisor :
Di : 10
Diplomat Level 3

Mother : Spymaster Level 2

Father : General Level 3

No buildings.

Possible outcomes :
Diplomat Level 1 MttH ( in days ) = 1050 ( lvl1 base ) * 1 ( no modifiers from attributes ) * 1 ( character traits don't affect this level ) * 1 ( advisor's education ) * 1.15 ( advisor's diplomacy ) * 0.85 * ( child is friends with advisor ) * 1 ( father not a diplomat and not extreme level ) * 1 ( mother not a diplomat and not extreme level ) * 1 ( no buildings ) = 1026
This translates to a probability of 0,068%

Diplomat Level 2 MttH = 900 * 1.05 ( Sceptical ) * 1.05 ( Suspicious ) * 0,95 ( advisor's education ) * 0,95 ( advisor's diplomacy ) * 0,85 ( child is friends with advisor ) = 768
Translates to 0,091%

Diplomat Level 3 Mtth = 1200 * 1.1 ( Sceptical ) * 1.15 ( Suspicious ) * 0.90 ( advisor's education ) * 0.9 ( advisor's diplomacy ) * 0.85 ( child is friends with advisor ) = 1045
Translates to 0,066%

Diplomat Level 4 Mtth = 1500 * 1.05 ( Sceptical ) * 1.1 ( Suspicious ) * 0.95 ( advisor's education ) * 0.9 ( advisor's diplomacy ) * 0.85 ( child is friends with advisor ) = 1259
Translates to 0,055%

Now if we shift these probabilities to see how likely is each of these outcomes over a year period we get :
Diplomat 1 - 21,85 % ( Spymaster 1 - 18,72% )
Diplomat 2 - 28,28 % ( Spymaster 2 - 27,74% )
Diplomat 3 - 21,50 % ( Spymaster 3 - 25,89% )
Diplomat 4 - 18,20 % ( Spymaster 4 - 20,41% )

Which means Rogovold is better suited to be a Spymaster ( character traits, better teacher, mothers influence ) but the friendship with Chancellor will probably turn him into an average Diplomat instead.

[Mist]

3. Steward

*) Attributes

It's essential to have
-high Stewardship ( 9! or more )

It's helpful to have
-good health

It's marginally helpful to have
-high Diplomacy ( 8 or more )
-high Intrigue ( 8 or more )

*) Parents

As with Spymaster

*) Advisor

Realms Steward is the relevant advisor

Rest as with Spymaster

*) Traits

Good traits :

-Chaste
-Energetic
-Just
-Pragmatic
-Selfish
-Shy
-Suspicious
-Temperate
-Wise

Mixed traits :

-Clubfooted
-Modest

Bad traits :

-Bastard
-Coward
-Crusader
-Deceitful
-Generous
-Gregarious
-Harelip
-Honest
-Hunchback
-Inbred
-Indulgent
-Kinslayer
-Lisp
-Lustful
-Merciful
-Proud
-Reckless
-Romantic
-Sceptical
-Stutter
-Trusting
-Valorous
-Vengeful
-Weak Willed
-Zealous

Disqualifying traits :

-Arbitrary
-Depression
-Excommunicated
-Heretic
-Lazy
-Maniac
-Schizofrenia

*) Buildings

Helpful buildings :

-Large Castle
-Grand Shipyard
-Civilian Harbour
-Extensive Roads
-Court of Justice
-Mine
-Improved Mine

And example again

Let's take Rogovold once more
The child :
Ma: 8
Di: 7
In: 7
St: 8
Sceptical, Suspicious
Not a friend with the Steward

Advisor :
Di : 5
St : 13
Steward Level 4

Mother : Spymaster Level 2

Father : General Level 3

We have a Court of Justice which helps towards levels 2 and 4.

Possible outcomes :
Steward Level 1 MttH ( in days ) = 1050 ( lvl1 base ) * 1. ( no modifiers from attributes ) * 1.1 ( Suspicious ) * 1 ( advisor's diplomacy not high enough ) * 1 ( father not a diplomat and not extreme level ) * 1 ( mother not a diplomat and not extreme level ) * 1 ( no buildings ) = 1155
This translates to a probability of 0,06%

Steward Level 2 MttH = 900 * 0.95 ( Courthouse ) = 855
Translates to 0,081%

Steward Level 3 Mtth = 1200 * 1.05 ( Sceptical ) = 1260
Translates to 0,055%

Steward Level 4 Mtth = 1500 * 0.95 ( Suspicious ) * 0.95 ( Courthouse ) = 1353
Translates to 0,051%

Now if we shift these probabilities to see how likely is each of these outcomes over a year period we get :
Steward 1 - 19,67% ( Diplomat 1 - 21,85 % ) ( Spymaster 1 - 18,72% )
Steward 2 - 25,61% ( Diplomat 2 - 28,28 % ) ( Spymaster 2 - 27,74% )
Steward 3 - 18,19% ( Diplomat 3 - 21,50 % ) ( Spymaster 3 - 25,89% )
Steward 4 - 17,05% ( Diplomat 4 - 18,20 % ) ( Spymaster 4 - 20,41% )

There's nothing really pushing Rogovold towards stewardship and it shows. Generally outcome is along expectations, he has solid but not outstanding attributes with traits pushing him slightly towards spying. Good teachers make a failure unlikely, but there's not enough in him to expect spectacular. Three most likely outcomes are Diplomat 2, Spy 2 and Spy 3.

[regoarrarr]

Thanks Mist for this!

A few questions on education

1) So if he's in a court education, all 3 of these "tracks" are possible, right? So each day we roll some random numbers, with the probabilities that you laid out above, and eventually one of those levels / tracks is chosen.

When you say certain traits "disqualify" you, how does that work? What if you are in the army education but you're disqualified from getting that? Do you just get no education?

@Rest of the team - who should be our heir?

Next player will have to decide whether we want an excellent military specialist ( Roman ) or a better rounded package ( Rostislav ) on the throne and give that person a second county.

Any thoughts?

[SleepingMoogle]

Given that our main goal is the crown of Lithuania, and we need to do more conquering to get it, I would personally lean towards Roman, but I'm happy to hear arguments supporting Rostislav's rise to power.

Thanks a ton for all the tutorial stuff Mist! Without it, we would surely bring our dynasty to ruin.

[Twinkletoes89]

Well Rostilav has a lustful wife so more chance of kids and the dynasty. Also means we are quite well rounded.

Though if we are going on a major expansion drive, we will need Roman to lead it.