Diplomacy No press Game 01 LURKER THREAD [NO PLAYERS]

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England Changes Their Mind

While I’m guaranteed to grab Belgium, I think that getting Belgium would be a mistake:


F and G will then have an easy way to team up against me, so I think they’d take it, at least in the medium term. I can’t hold Belgium very easily right now, so while I wouldn’t mind having it, it’s a mistake to grab it instead of Norway. So:

A Yor – Nth – Nwy

F Nth C A Yor – Nwy

F Eng – Bel (this will either bounce a French build or get me a 2nd build. True, it’s a build I’ve got a decent chance of losing next year, but I’d build F Lon and F Edi, using F Edi and likely F Nth to head east and grab Sweden first and then more threaten either Den or StP later. And slowing France down = a good thing; if France orders Mao-Bre then he’s down to just one build.)

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Russia chimes in

Spring 1901:
Decided on standard opening moves. I considered showing non-aggression to get some cooperation going, but decided to see what my neighbours did first. I'm happy about that now that Turkey is in Armenia.

Fall 1901:
I can't afford to fight both Austria and Turkey, so I take Rumania from Galicia, which should hopefully signal peaceful intentions to Austria. I'm not risking Sevastopol, so the fleet there stays in place. Actually I use the opportunity to signal an attack on Turkey to Austria.

Moved northern fleet to Sweden, expecting a bounce.

- Excellent moves, just what I would have done, and I've got my eye on him (and Germany) as front runners here.

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Austria gives some (okay, a keek-sized amount of) thoughts

Ok, some thoughts on the moves... I'm going to start with the most relevant ones (Turkey/Russia/Italy), and I'll be a bit more brief about the E/F/G moves since those don't really matter as much yet, but they're still worth commenting on.

Austria - Not much more that I can say that I haven't said already, but I've given myself an easy shot at 2 centers, and if I take Greece, I'll get a minimum of 1 center if Russia does walk in on Budapest/Vienna. More on that later after I submit my moves... I have quite a lot of options here, but I do think there's one specific set that is superior to the others.

Turkey - Interesting move into Armenia. I think that's a pretty safe sign that he has hostile intentions against Russia, which means I make natural allies with him. I'm hoping it's meant as a signal to me, that way we can have some sort of A-T alliance and hopefully get me through these scary first turns. I'm happy with his moves overall.

Russia - Yeah I knew there was a strong chance he'd move into Galicia. I mean I could always hope he'd open north with Mos-Stp, but I knew the chance was pretty slight. He can guarantee himself Rumania, and I'm hoping he does something like Ukr-Rum with Gal support and Sev-Bla... Which would be a pretty reasonable opening. Also, with hostile Turkish intentions being broadcasted, he may recognize the need for Austrian help and leave my centers alone. If he's smart he'll recognize that taking Vie/Bud will mean I still get +1 center and he'll be subject to an A-T alliance against him.

Italy - Not sure what he's going for here exactly, but the one thing that's for sure is I don't think he intends to be friendly with me, as literally every single one of his units went east. I may consider ordering Trieste to support Venice as a way of signaling to him that I'd like peace (since the alternative is basically to order Trieste to hold).

Germany - Not sure what he was doing in Tyrolia... That makes me really nervous. I thought I could count on Germany as my one ally, so yeah I have no clue what he intended to accomplish by ordering Mun-Tyr. Surely Mun-Ruh or Mun-Bur would've been better? Going to need to keep an eye on him, but he poses no threat for 1901 so I'm not too worried.

France - Ordering Marseilles into Burgundy with no support seems odd and risky but it's going to pay off I guess. He'll probably order Mao-Por, Gas-Spa, and Bur-Bel and lose Brest, netting him +2... He'll be fine I guess.

England - Typical moves, not much else to say. I do think he should've ordered Lvp-Wal instead of Lvp-Yor, giving him the option to convoy onto western Europe with Eng... However his order to York signifies he's going to convoy into Norway instead, which is the anti-Russian move... Which is another thing that's good for me and gives me hope that Galicia won't try anything funny. A-R alliance is not impossible if he lets me keep my home centers in peace.

Mun-Tyl in S01 is actually usually a pro-Austrian move (though it's hard to really get that across in no-press). I think G, I AND A are all probably better off that it bounced (well, maybe not Italy).

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And..... moves!

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Fleet Albania -> Greece.
Austria: Army Trieste -> Venice. (*bounce*)
Austria: Fleet Albania -> Greece.

England: Army Yorkshire -> North Sea -> Norway.
England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Yorkshire -> Norway.
England: Fleet English Channel -> Belgium. (*bounce*)

France: Army Burgundy -> Belgium. (*bounce*)
France: Army Gascony -> Spain.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Portugal.

Germany: Army Kiel -> Holland.
Germany: Army Munich -> Ruhr.
Germany: Fleet Denmark -> Sweden. (*bounce*)

Italy: Army Apulia -> Ionian Sea -> Greece. (*bounce*)
Italy: Army Venice -> Trieste. (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea CONVOY Army Apulia -> Greece.

Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Rumania.
Russia: Army Galicia -> Rumania.
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol CONVOY Austrian Army Serbia -> Bulgaria.
Russia: Fleet Gulf of Bothnia -> Sweden. (*bounce*)

Turkey: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Austrian Fleet Albania -> Greece.
Turkey: Army Armenia HOLD.
Turkey: Fleet Ankara -> Black Sea.

Ownership of supply centers:

Austria: Budapest, Greece, Serbia, Trieste, Vienna.
England: Edinburgh, Liverpool, London, Norway.
France: Brest, Marseilles, Paris, Portugal, Spain.
Germany: Berlin, Denmark, Holland, Kiel, Munich.
Italy: Naples, Rome, Venice.
Russia: Moscow, Rumania, Sevastopol, St Petersburg, Warsaw.
Turkey: Ankara, Bulgaria, Constantinople, Smyrna.
Unowned: Belgium, Sweden, Tunis.

Austria: 5 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 2 units.
England: 4 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 1 unit.
France: 5 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 2 units.
Germany: 5 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 2 units.
Italy: 3 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 0 units.
Russia: 5 Supply centers, 4 Units: Builds 1 unit.
Turkey: 4 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 1 unit.

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As always, you can get the moves on the USAK judge website (usak.asciiking.com). Actually, if you want to "observe" the game, and get the results emailed from the judge, you can sign on as an observer - let me know if you want to do that and I will set you up

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My thoughts:

Austria: Agree with his analysis that this was the ideal set of moves for him He will obviously be building 2 armies

England: I'm torn with whether he was right in switching his moves to go for Norway and leaning towards agreeing with him. Belgium is nice but an ally is nicer. Set up for an EG alliance I'd say. I'd expect F Edi.

France: Looking good and he has options. F Bre and A Par would be my suspicion. Again, I would have probably ordered a support of Eng-Bel to try and signal an alliance with England (but I understand his concern of England trying for Brest)

Germany: In good shape - A Mun and F Kie would be the standard builds. F Kie to take Sweden in the fall and A Mun to go towards Burgundy

Italy: Again, pungent He's got no builds, no friends, and is in serious trouble. Now Austria has 2 builds and Italy is not going anywhere. I'd advise him to make sure he gets Tunis this year

Russia: Nice job signaling for the Austrian support, but Turkey also wants to get Austria onside (supported Alb-Gre from Bul), and is in much better position than Russia, being in Bla and Arm. Plus Russia got bounced in Sweden so has only one build, and really needs it in the south and the north. He's in trouble from the tactical situation unless something changes.

Turkey: Like the support of Austria into Greece. If I'm Austria, I ally with Turkey instead of Russia. I could see a F Smy build but probably an army to take on Russia (A Arm S A Ank-Bla-Sev for instance)

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England's Fall and Winter thoughts.

England's Winter 1901 and F1901 recap:


That…was interesting. I’ll do the simple situation of F and G first. So France gambled with Mao-Por, which is fine; I’d have been better off with Eng-Bre after all, but I took the safe bounce in Bel. Germany did essentially what was expected (yay for Den-Swe!). Mun-Ruh could have been dangerous if Bur-Mun had happened (F Bel and A Mun = Germany on the ropes very quickly, but oh well). I wonder what France expected F Eng to do; he didn’t prep for Eng-Bre, obviously, so he probably expected Eng-Bel…but in that case Bur-Mun is actually better for both of us, and I think France prefers a dead Germany to a live one. Oh well.


Expected builds:

A Mun and F Kie for Germany (Argh)

A Par and F Bre for France (Also ARGH)


Down South:

Russia passed up an Austrian center to protect against Turkey. And STUPID ITALY there; passing up a safe build for what ended up NOT EVEN BOUNCING AUSTRIA, although Bul S Alb-Gre was a surprise, so I don’t blame him for missing that. But Alb-Gre wasn’t a shocker (Bul-Gre was also likely, tbh). Russia’s got a real problem if he doesn’t build A Mos: Bul-Rum and Arm-Sev with Bla supporting one or the other = trouble b/c Ukr can’t support both. I’m happy with this down south, because Russia is busy but the others aren’t making much progress: A Mos HAS to be supportive down south in at least the spring; frankly, we’re looking at a logjam in the Russia/Turkey front unless Austria interferes…which is rather risky. Austria just went from “Should Be Screwed” to “Favorite To Pick Up territory” with this fall turn.


Expected builds:

Italy: NONE. Crazy. At least if I’d gone for Bel instead of Nwy, I was guaranteed to get it. I think with Germany getting 2 builds, I’m better off not having gone for Bel

Austria: A Vie A Bud; these are forced. I’d continue to pressure Italy, mostly; there’s not a lot of progress to be made against an A Con build for Turkey.

Russia: A Mos; best way to defend against Turkey. An AT pseudo-alliance against him = lots of trouble, especially since I should be threatening Swe and Stp VERY quickly. Nor am I worried about losing STP once Russia crumbles.

Turkey: A Con or F Con, not sure which. I think F Con’s better, but he needs the support to hold Bul better.


My plan:

Build F Edi

S02: Eng – something, Nth-Nwy and Nwy-FIN (then I can threaten Swe OR StP in the fall, and Bot-Fin is crazy IMO). This assumes no StP build. Edi-Nwg and Eng-Nth if I don’t see a fleet in Bre. If I do see F Bre (ugh), I’ll do Eng S Bur-Bel to suggest to France that I’m willing to work with him against Germany; I think I’m going to focus on a rather busy Russia, but this might help keep France off of my back.

He even bolded and underlined them for me - what a sweetheart

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Thoughts from Turkey

So fall 01 is processed and there are agian some interesting moves.

France did move to get 2 centeres for sure and has now the possibility to build a Fleet in BRE. That gives the chance to put any further English attacks at bay for a while.

Germany did take the risk to open MUN and had success.

Italy on the other side risked a lot with the try on GRE and lost.

Austria risked a home center and got rewarded with 2 builds and a weak Italy as neighbour.

England made an expected move and I'm sure the Army in NWY makes russia very uneasy.

Both Russia and Turkey made a move to tell Austria 'Hey we love you. Please work with us'.

What are the consequences of all that:
1) Italy is weak . It has attacked Austria twice and has now no build while Austria has 2. Additional France might use one of its 2 builds for a F MAR and if this happens Italy will be gone soon
2) Austria has 2 build and both Russia and Turkey begging for help.
In short Austria is now in a very strong position and we might see a game with Austria as winner.
Sadly with the weak Italy one great danger for Austria is practically gone. Usually if I,A and R work together vs Turkey Austria ends up to be sandwiched between Russia and Italy and consequently crushed as it is not possible to defend both fronts. Here we have Italy weak and maybe even in danger from the west so Austria has free hand to do what it pleases. Sadly for me it can easily side with Russia and crush Turkey.
3)Russia is in a dificult position too. In the south it will be Austria making gains (If those 2 work together) and in the north the Army in NWY already a threat.

So the interesting things for Winter and Spring 02 are: Will France build F MAR and move vs Italy? Will Germany build 2 Armies and send them east? And will Austria move vs Italy, Turkey or (and I consider thatr the least likely) Russia?

I wonder if I can survive longer than Italy.

Not sure why he's so pessimistic; he's actually in a pretty good position

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I asked Italy his thoughts

i think i'm screwed
my plan for the first year totally failed, and I don't know what I'll do now
maybe try to turn around and attack France

Yup. Pretty much.

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Thoughts from France

OK, comment for the thread.
on last turns move
A: basically ordered the same (as far as outcomes are concerned)
E: I was pessimistic, ordering what would hurt me the most. They played a more...friendly...role that was worse for them. As it is I get 1 more build than I should, they get 1 less.
F: I'm F, so what's the F-ing point in commenting on this, you noob?
G: smart play, playing for the future.

I ordered: 1 bounce with E, Hol captured, 1 bounce with F. The ordered 1 bounce with R, Hol captured, one reposition to take an areathat is a 3 part contested area. I don't think I guessed that badly there.
*they ordered
Itally are so let's ignore them.
I didn't know most of russias moves were even legal
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol CONVOY Austrian Army Serbia -> Bulgaria.
that's legal?

I didn't know people f***** about in no press
wimps
yes
I consider it to be buls***
actually, I can't figure out a way to consider that to be above board
so yeah, consider this to be a complaint

still,please post that I think Russias orders are bulls***, as far as my understanding went as to the game type
I may
underline MAY,
have ordered different orders last turn if I had known
tbh I wouldn't
but that's only because I know that ordering A Bur S F Eng-Bel is a wimp move
giving them the optino of f***** me over

Any guesses from the peanut gallery as to who this is?