[LURKERS] PB 42

[superjm]

I'm curious superjim, what was the reasoning behind running your stacks into Gavagi like that.

Playing defensively or even to a stalemate is a lost cause either way, my empire as it stood was in no way equipped to challenge for any type of victory past the renaissance/early industrial, and Gavagai was snowballing pretty hard from him quick conquest of OT4E. The plan was to try and rush Cavs and try to secure as much of OT4E's land as possible before Gavagai had the chance to get equivalent units to stop me. Of course I planned to go with a bigger stack than what I did at first (I double whipped Cavs, most starting with pre-built Cuirs, out of all of my cities using Police State), but given that Gavagai had beaten me to Rifling tech and was getting out of control in demos I figured if I was gonna go out swinging, I needed to go as soon as possible. That turned out to be a mistake and I underestimated how many units he actually had ready to counterattack (I knew he was using boats, which is why I attempted to pillage roads and forts early on to cut off easy access to that chokepoint area, but he had enough workers nearby to just rebuild them. I should have just waited for more Rifle upgrades and for all my whipped Cavs to show up for a more overwhelming force. And also get some siege (even 3-55 trebs would have been enough). And also not completely miss that D2 is a valid prerequisite for Formation and that all his new rifles and muskets could be double promoted to Formation as needed which completely ruined the open-field/defensive combat odds I was expecting when I decided to go for Cavs. 

So yeah, not a very well played war by me, that's for sure, and losing that initial engagement was pretty much the end for me. It all relied on using my tech to reach Rifling before he did which didn't happen and for me to have a quick initial strike on his border cities to cut off that crucial crossing path for his boats, which was just a total loss. I will say imo, my many mistakes aside, the three major things outside of my direct control that led to this result is OT4E losing his entire unpromoted knight stack near the start of Gavagai's push, a crucial mistake that led to his extremely quick collapse, and me getting useless double Great Scientist spawns at extremely low odds to prevent me from getting a second golden age. Given that I was already in Environmentalism at the time, that second Golden Age would have been a massive help. And finally Krill rushing Astronomy and Chemistry ensuring that my plan B, going for him, was going to be extremely difficult as I didn't have the means to both counter frigates AND get enough of a Cav stack to overrun him if they did land.

But besides all that, I didn't play the last 30 turns or so all that well to be honest so all I can say is that I tried my best?

[Mardoc]

It's easy for omniscient lurkers to criticize decisions made by players, when the players are missing key information. But information in game has a cost, so it's probably correct to invest in your own empire instead of in scouting/etc.

[thestick]

I guess OH decided to leave Cairo alive as a buffer state?

[Mardoc]

I guess OH decided to leave Cairo alive as a buffer state?

I don't understand your premises.  OH wasn't at war with Cairo in the first place.  I'm sure OH's reasoning is that he'll have to fight Gavagai sooner or later, and this way he at least gets an ally.

OH is leaving superdeath alive - I suspect personally that's a tactical choice rather than a strategic one.  Doesn't want to give Gav a chance to finish Cairo on his own, willing to bet that superdeath can't/won't cause him too much trouble in the future. Or at least bet that future superdeath problems are smaller than current Gavagai problems.  But then OH is in a spot right now where he doesn't need to win the wars, he just needs to draw them out and make the world chaotic enough that no one can notice or stop his march to culture in time.

[thestick]

I'm asking the same question Gavagai was: why didn't OH attack Cairo? This isn't an accusation, I'm really just curious. OH's sparse reporting style makes it seem like he didn't even consider it.

Plus I'm an idiot who can't connect the dots and can't tell whether OH is seriously going for culture or if he's just mentioning it as a Hail Mary 'hope it all works out!' strategy.

[Mardoc]

I'm asking the same question Gavagai was: why didn't OH attack Cairo? This isn't an accusation, I'm really just curious. OH's sparse reporting style makes it seem like he didn't even consider it.

Ah, got it.

I'm not sure, but I'm of the impression that Krill made it clear that OH would have to fight him if he wanted to take Lewwyn or Cairo's lands. OH was all set to go for Lewwyn then Cairo but his plans changed when Krill was forceful about not letting him keep the spoils.

Plus I'm an idiot who can't connect the dots and can't tell whether OH is seriously going for culture or if he's just mentioning it as a Hail Mary 'hope it all works out!' strategy.

Knowing OH, I suspect he's seriously going for culture in four cities, and is bending the rest of his empire toward generic strength. There isn't much the rest of the empire can do to help - aside from building missionaries for the cultural cities which is probably mostly done already.

Strength would help with a culture win, but OH is one of the best I know of at flexibility. Strength could help if he sees an opportunity for a spaceship victory, and there's always the off-chance that constant pressure will give him an opportunity to play for domination - after all it's already brought him up to definitely 2nd place and looking at 1st.

Still, I think the most likely possibilities right now are Gavagai winning by domination/concession, and OH winning by culture or concession.

[JR4]

You have to give credit to Old Harry. At one point he looked sure to be eliminated by Knights but he somehow stayed in the game. The longer the game goes on, the higher chance of him winning imo. Gavagai still has a definite edge, though. From a lurker`s perspective I`m glad that the game wasn`t called a number of turns ago.

[The Black Sword]

I'd guess OH called dibs on the culture victory by building the Sistine but hasn't committed much else to it yet. He's spread religion and built AP buildings because they're good, the fact that it helps with the CV is just a nice bonus. I really doubt he's started any non-AP Cathedrals yet.

With how coastal OH's empire is, he needs to hold the seas above all else. Even if someone else starts committing more to a victory condition, a Sistine powered CV should beat them, the important thing is to get there IMO.

And from the ship numbers between him and Gav that he's quoted it sounds like he might have the seas soon too. It's definitely been a real nice read to seem him pivoting so often and getting rewarded for it.

[thestick]

Has OH posted any shots of his cultural cities? Have been too focused on the wars to notice if he posted domestic shots.

And dear baloney, I am not used to OH's style of flexible boating, or water maps in general. These 'load up troops and sail away' attacks are alarmingly faster than the 'build knights for 10 turns then spend 20 turns wading through enemy culture.'

[BaII]

How did OH not end up getting destroyed by Krill's knight's though? Did Krill just not have the opportunity to walk his massive knight stack through some of OH's cities and take them?