[SPOILERS] Cornflakes and giraflorens PB49 - any stock traders out there?

[giraflorens]

I was reading this last paragraph and for a moment I though I was reading a Post of Superdeath,
Your are very close to each other so soon there will be some encounters.

You don't have much forest, so maths is not going to help you a lot.

[Cornflakes]

I'll only pursue war if/when swift and decisive victory can be achieved.

Bowmen are quite effective defenders through the classical era so I will be keeping my eyes open for opportunities to passive-aggressively muscle more than my "fair share" of territory.

[Cornflakes]

Check out that juicy terrain between us and Raskol 

   

That is the best clump of terrain that I've seen so far, and compensates Carthage for their tight start. Raskol adopted Slavery last turn an therefore presumably has a settler on the move. I suspect the highlighted tile between the wheat is the destination which would get settled around T30. This puts Copper 2nd ring which would be picked up by the border pop on T35. Best case scenario with road in place and 2 workers they get copper connected T37. My Bowman completes EOT 27 and could reach copper T37, while forking the 2nd city (with 80% odds vs warrior, or 70% if warrior has full fortify)   Once my bowman reaches Copper, the hill defense will make the position near impregnable to warriors. For those of you who are following along from past games, you know that formulating EvilPlots™ is one of my favorite parts of the game. Not saying I'm going to follow this plan, just pointing out the options. This would guarantee a permanent enemy, but the initial investment would be minimal and would greatly disrupt the snowball. 

Miguelito gets the "first to 2nd city" award at the blazingly early date of T25, then he founded Hinduism a turn later to pop border at his 2nd city. That fits the SPI/IMP narrative, but puts him further from his UU Granary.

[Cornflakes]

The good news is that I have a resource pocket towards Carthage as well.

   

The bad news is that my copper is in the opposite direction.
The good news is that ORANGE dot can pick up two new food resources.
The bad news is that location can't split off a resource from the capital.
The good news is that I no longer need an immediate 2nd worker to improve Deer since 3 food resources + granary is far too much for one city.
The bad news is that already-completed tile-swap micro that is optimal for an immediate 2nd worker is suboptimal for a delayed 2nd worker.
The good news is that Risk Management can grow instead of whipping down to 1.
The bad news is that neither food resource at ORANGE provides more than 4 food.
The good news is the city seals the border with Carthage.
The bad news is the "A" tile that picks up all three resources is flatland.
The good news is the river protects the front of the city.
The bad news is that CRE Carthage will always have control of the diagonal tile to 1-turn with mounted.
The good news is the military guarding the settler follow the same trajectory as choking/annoying Carthage per my EvilPlot™.
The bad news is that Carthage 2nd city on PH between wheat can build its own 2nd warrior before my bowman can arrive on-scene to attack so I'm unlikely to be able to get a cheap raze of the city.
The good news is that the city would have time to grow to size 2 so that I could capture and keep rather the razing.
The bad news is that it would take enormous effort to build enough Bowmen to out-produce Carthage's warrior output.

[giraflorens]

You are very close, so the game is going to be very exciting soon.

Have you seen the stats of Japan??? Ah, now I realize that in this mod is balance, ain't it? I was very surprise

[Cornflakes]

   

Raskol settled the 2nd Carthaginian city at the furs/cows T32, only 1 turn ahead of my non-IMP 2nd city. That is a flatland city that does not appear to have the production capacity to build its own warrior by the time my military can arrive on scene 

[Cornflakes]

2nd city settled and Horses are revealed

   

Raskol settled on horses, but notice the tile yield is still just 2 food. Raskol does not yet have Animal Husbandry tech. I moved my military such that my options are still open. Next turn both can move 1NE with the bowman visible from Carthaginian culture the the warrior hidden unless their warrior is fog busting. I've been trying to convince myself to give peace a chance ... But Ras is not making a very convincing case for peace. Check out the power graph. Still just the 1 warrior that I saw a few turns ago. 

   

Bowman vs. full fortify warrior in 20% culture flatland city is 82.4% ... vs. unfortified warrior it's 97.5% how can I pass up those odds? And in either case a victorious bowman earns 2 XP for a promo-heal and Shock to kill a 2nd warrior if one arrives. If only 1 warrior is present my warrior can clean up if the bowman loses.

[Cornflakes]

As you can see from the tech thread, I played a double turn. On T34 I moved my warrior and bowman both 1NE. We were not at war and I did not intend to declare war on the 2nd turn so I do not believe that was a "double move" in either the letter or the spirit of the rule. In fact by taking a double turn I put myself at a disadvantage by giving Ras an extra turn of warning ... and allowed him to camp his scout on my Pigs an extra turn early

   

Here is the situation now. Pigs are blocked. I should have whipped the bowman last turn in order to free the pigs quicker. Oh well. Ras retreated the warrior back towards the capital suggesting the intent to abandon the 2nd city without a fight. I'll move the warrior 1NW first which will reveal if any reinforcement is coming from the capital (power graph suggests Carthage still just has 1 warrior for military). If the forest 1N is clear I'll just use the warrior to raze and move the bowman 1NE with the intent to fortify on the copper and ensure that Ras doesn't pump out a few warriors to force a city on the copper. I don't want Ras saving up cash, founding on Copper, and then immediately upgrading a couple warriors to axes. One bowman fortified on the copper hill will defeat a host of warriors.

My [current] plan is to choke Carthage in the capital, plant a city on "their" hill between the wheats, tech to catapults, and then eliminate Carthage. In the short term I will press the two existing bowmen and the warrior forward to pressure Carthage, raze improvements, force warrior builds, slow archer research and production. If I see an opportunity to take the Carthage capital I'll take it but I don't think I can get copper connected and a pair of axes to bear before Carthage stuffs enough archers in.

   

Here's the capital's build queue. I should have anticipated Ras blocking pigs and whipped the bowman last turn  Overflow will complete a warrior (necessary for MP as well as ensuring the scout can't dance around the bowman). After the warrior I'll 2-whip the worker, grow on another bowman, and 2-whip the settler. I'm working deer over the mine because growth is the critical path for the worker whip as well as the subsequent settler completion. I'm looking at around T45 for the settler which will give a somewhat late 3rd city around T48. However I'm hoping to get a settler out of Technical Analysis around around T50 to settle an excellent 4th city at Carthate's double-wheat site.

[Cornflakes]

You are very close, so the game is going to be very exciting soon.

I hate to ruin somebody's game with a choke but CRE/IMP neighbor is not pleasant especially on a tight map, and "farmers gambit" is a gambit after all. And my current Bowman vs. Warriors is probably the best military edge that I can get for the next 100 turns.

Have you seen the stats of Japan??? Ah, now I realize that in this mod is balance, ain't it? I was very surprise

Japan's Samurai in the mod come early compared to Macemen (no Civil Service requirement) but Bowmen of equal promotion level still get >50% odds for <50% of the hammer cost  I just remembered that Commodore is AGG so will have free C1 promo so I'll have to double-check taking that into account. But the cost efficiency still stands. I don't mind Commodore as a neighbor. I feel like I can trust Commodore to act in a rational manner and not drag us both down unnecessarily. I will aim for a comfortable border that we can both live with (preferably splitting off the golds in the 2nd ring for each of us).

[Cornflakes]

   

Carthage 2nd city razed   Power graph indicates Carthage now has 2 warriors. With that river protecting the front of the city and 40% culture defenses I'm not going to be able to dislodge 2 warriors. My raiders are now circling the lake to pillage pigs and the mine. I kept my Bowman on the east side of the lake because priority #1 is prevention of copper connection. One advantage of attacking this early is that trade connections are not yet established and therefore Carthage can't be gifted copper from a neighbor.

At Risk Management I decided to box in the Carthage scout. My current military is not enough to eliminate Carthage immediately so I would rather prevent the possibility of tile blocking in my backlines.

[Not pictured] Elkad has settled on Copper as expected, so he can get axes/spears into the field in short order. I'm not concerned though since Bowmen are adequate defenders in this era. Even still my scout will be patrolling the jungle between us and Elkad (partially to keep barbs from spawning)