Okay. With General Sunrise apparently being busy, I decided to just give it a whirl. It seemed like it was better to attack now (this turn), if I could get enough good odds.
First, Ingrid the roving scout (i.e worker) moved west, and spotted nothing in the fog. And ZZ Top is only guarded by a single shock mace (upgraded from a quechua I believe).
So, first I sent in the cats. First cat took the big dog (C3 elephant) down to 6.9/8, which was not much and he defended also against the 2nd cat, who also died but took him down to 4.6/8. 2 more cats died taking the C2 elephant down to 4.8/8.
Then we started the real fight
C2Ele @ 7.3/8 vs. C1 Ele @ 86.3%
C2 Mace vs. C1 Ele @ 87.7%
C2 Mace vs. C1Medic Ele @ 88.2%
C1Shock Mace vs. C3 ele 4.6/8 @ 94.6%
C2 ele 6.6/8 vs. c2 ele 4.8/8 @ 88.1%
C1 mace vs. C1 ele 5/8 @ 94.4%
C2 ele 6.6/8 vs. C1 5/8 @ 89.1%
C2 knight 9.2/10 vs. elephant 5/8 @ 94.6%
C1 ele vs. HA @ 99.9
9 for 9! Captured 15 gold and after some debate, decided to keep the city, which came with no buildings.
Then I cleaned up a sentry HA to the south with a C2 knight @ 97.3% and a C2 knight took out "Shithead" the wounded HA @ 99.9
So from before we were 603K to 469K in soldier count.
I dropped to 584K (-20K for 4 cats, +1K for the city)
He dropped to 424K. But actually, I think he's no longer 2nd. If he was at 469K, and lost 8 elephants and 3 horse archers (and 1 city), he should have dropped 83K, or be at 386K. Again, it will be interesting to see where he gets after these 15 whips.
I tried to divide things up between my current stack and the city. I have enough that he can't take the city. He may win a battle if he wants to attack with that C1Shock Mace, but he won't have odds with the elephant and actually, depending on how things go, I may have a shot to take ZZ Top next turn.