[Spoiler] First rodeo: Jalepeno takes the bull by the horns.

[jalepeno]

Industrious bonus doesn't show in the demographics. Only bonuses that benefit all production appears in it. So, forges and factories appear in demographics (state property in vanilla is anotehr example, I think), bonus production on wonders, workers, buildings, do not.

Ok, that means there’s any of WK, HK, or TBS could have the GE. Sian & Yell0w can’t because they’re before me and rival best prod was 4 on Turn 0. I’m back to my earlier thought that HK has the GE in order to get +2 from ind on the worker. This also means that it could be someone other than Yell0w growing first; I still think it makes the most sense for him, but no way to be sure until we meet.

So let’s redo T3 production numbers: rival average of 6, avg is floored (from what you said before), so that means total rival production should be 30-34. High 9, low 4, means remaining three have total 17 to 21. Assume possible #’s are 4, 7, 9 (GS growing on oasis, GS build worker on deer, GE build worker on deer; makes no sense to grow on oasis with GE building warriors, so 6 is out). Possible scenarios: all 3 worker first, 2 worker – 1 grow, or even 1 worker – 2 grow. Yay for guessing in the dark!

Regarding GNP, there's the prerequisite bonus, which shows in the demographics.

I think its probably researching something with a pre req, which tells me agriculture -> calender.

Ok, prereq bonus is what, 20%? So +2 up to 15 base GNP, then +3 up to 20 base. Hmm, ok, this works then if it’s the kurios who went with the GE (no way are khazad or Grigori going mining first). Before border pops they would have 11 from palace/city tile, +3 GE, +2 oasis = 16*1.2 = 19. Afterwards, switch to working deer, base 14*1.2 = 16 GNP. Someone else would have had the lowest GNP of 17 the turn before. I think that’s only possible for someone with a GS, working the deer, teching a first tier tech. To work deer last turn and me to see it, means either Sian or Yell0w. Sian’s creative, so that only fits for Yell0w. But that means he’s going Agr and probably possibly worker first. Which turns out must be so, since rival best GNP was 21 on Turn 0. Yell0w went with a GS (known from prod #'s), working oasis Turn 0 gives GNP 19. If he were teching mysticism, wouldn't that be 19*1.2 = 22? Could someone please confirm that you get a prereq bonus for myst?

For reference, opponents’ starting techs:

Khazad – crafting
Ljos – exploration
Elohim – AC
Grigori – crafting
Kurios – Agriculture

I don't think these are spoilers. FfH games in general have a more free approach to lurker comments and this is general game knowledge. I'm neither confirming, nor denying that you are right or wrong. If you want, I can point out a very interesting thread that also teaches C&D.

I very much appreciate your help so far; please point me in the direction of that thread. Even though…

I don't know though, I gave up early in pitboss9

…I’ll likely do the same soon, haha. Especially once there’s more going on in-game. Right now the turns are just moving the scout and pressing enter. Wild attempts at reading the tea leaves is about all there is to do.

[jalepeno]

What we I [think I] know

With all of the postulating I've been throwing around, I wanted to state what I'm actually sure of (not to be confused with actual fact)

• Sian and Yell0w used shades for GS
  
• Sian and Yell0w are going for 1st tier techs (almost certainly agriculture)
  
• Someone turned their shade into a GE
  
• At most two people went for GE's, rest are GS (no GM because never saw crop yield of 6 which it would have been on first turn)
  

Likely scenarios

• Kurios have GE, worker first, teching calendar
  
• The person with food of 5 is growing first (or emphasizing commerce over hammers while building worker)
  
• All of my analysis is just so much and all this is doing is upping thread count and confusing me...so definitely worthwile!
  

[Ichabod]

Not sure if you like reading other players game threads (if you like to, there's a high chance you've read this one already), but Pocketbeetle's FfH PBEM I Thread is really, really fun. And it also teaches C&D. It's a win/win read.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=3418

[jalepeno]

Not sure if you like reading other players game threads (if you like to, there's a high chance you've read this one already), but Pocketbeetle's FfH PBEM I Thread is really, really fun. And it also teaches C&D. It's a win/win read.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=3418

Ooooh, yeah, PB's thread is classic. I'd forgotten about his excellent C&D though (too many memories of hill giant renaming shenanigans). I'll try to skim it this weekend for demo analysis.

[jalepeno]

Turn 4

The RNG giveth and the RNG taketh away:

Paid the gold of course; losing the beakers would have lost 2 turns on agriculture.

Scouting the SE some more:

Looks like my theory about land bridges connecting N-S might be correct; what about E-W? Q, what do you think of sending the warrior to the Forested PH 3W, 1S of Paradigm? I really want to see what’s around the floodplains. He’d land there turn 6, so some very slight danger of a spider or griffon eating him. Definitely safer now than later though.

Demos:

-score: both Sian and Yell0w finished a tech this turn, almost certainly Agriculture (as did I EOT)
-MFG: rival best drops to 7 from 9, worst up 4 to 6. Player with GE switches from deer to oasis, emphasizing commerce with tiles to make up for GE.
-GNP: Rival best is only 20, which means either Sian didn’t dial up his next tech yet, or he’s going AC next instead of calendar; probably the former. Yell0w must be going for calendar or mysticism: 15 b (8 palace, 6 GS, 1 tile) *1.2 = 18 + 2 culture = 20. My guess is calendar, with mysticism to come afterwards.

[Qgqqqqq]

Go for it.
I don't think barbs spawn that close (least, they don't in bts) so they're won't be a spider, and even if there is a griffon you'll almost have odds
Is that the gold you got from the other event?

[jalepeno]

Go for it.
I don't think barbs spawn that close (least, they don't in bts) so they're won't be a spider, and even if there is a griffon you'll almost have odds
Is that the gold you got from the other event?

We'd actually have odds on a newly spawned griffon (3 + 50% from F PH + defend at 4.5), so yeah, I guess going for it makes sense.

I got 25 gold from the first event on Turn 3, then had to pay it all back on Turn 4 to prevent losing 19 beakers from agriculture. I guess I can be glad the two events didn't happen in reverse order.

[Qgqqqqq]

Oh yeah 3 strength
Its better then that, FH is +75%.

[jalepeno]

Oh yeah 3 strength
Its better then that, FH is +75%.

I think that's BTS you're thinking of. FH is only showing +50% bonus in game. We're blitzing now, so we'll know soon enough if anything finds him tasty.

[jalepeno]

Blitz got through 4 turns today. Took notes and will update tomorrow but need to hit the sack now (after midnight now). However, there is one key development that needs to be addressed before the next turn.

Scout's been heading towards the graveyard every since he saw it and has just stumbled upon a dungeon. So, do I pop it? It's 15 tiles away from the capital, so should be closer to one of my rivals than to me.