Alright, so let's run down the other players and where they are at right now. Since I've been on a playing old Final Fantasy's kick, we'll rank everyone's chances by flavor of FF endbosses.
The Black Sword (Joao of Mongolia)
Current Game Position (by score): 1st
Chances of Winning: 85%
Best Comparison: Neo Exdeath (I think he was the biggest bastard of all the bosses the first time I faced them)
TBS has played a magnificent game. He took Joao on a map with a lot of land, spammed a billion early cities, got through the GNP crash with an early Golden Age, spammed Courthouses everywhere, has kept a massive military on hand all game long to ensure nobody takes a shot at him, claimed more land without war than anyone else, etc. He just spit out an absurd 6 Great People during his Golden Age which makes me think he might be headed towards trying to abuse Corps. I still don't really think they're that good, but with a Courthouse in every city and the FP built earlier than I think I've ever seen it built he probably has less need for SP than most. He never needs to attack anyone - he has all the land he needs to win - but he could probably eat Oxy at his leisure or Me at something less than leisure.
Path to winning: Stay the course, pick a victory condition, execute it.
Way it goes wrong: Basically, the only way he loses is I either Commodore or I are able to eat a neighbor and catch up in strength and pass with amount of land. Or if Thoth somehow manages to end the endless dtay wars and can find a way to put a hurting on him. Neither of those are particularly likely.
Commodore (Ramesses of Rome)
Current Game Position (by score) : 4th
Chances of Winning: 6%
Best Comparison: Orphan (FFXIII which I know like nobody here has played. It is one of the tougher endbosses from recent games, though.)
Commodore has played the Commodore game. Execute his strategies well, miss the forest for the trees a bit. He's leveraged his IND trait well (though the failure of dtay and Commodore to keep Stonehenge from TBS is as much why this game is the romp it is as anything else - you cannot give Joao free culture on a map this big) by managing to get the Oracle-Colossus combo. Colossus is just disgustingly good on this map. He planted a superb Moai city and got it done. And he's done a decent job picking off the bones of dtay. His start was just too slow and he didn't get far enough in front on tech with his GNP-focused start.
Path to winning: Someone suicides into TBS giving him time to integrate dtay's land and stop TBS from snapping up all the remaining first-to bonuses. There really isn't another path.
Way it goes wrong: He spends the rest of the game writing stories about the Roman Legion while nobody does anything to slow TBS down OR he decides to attack me.
Gaspar/Lewwyn (Zara of Ottomans)
Current Game Position (by score) : 3rd
Chances of Winning: 5%
Best Comparison: Ultimecia (VIII; Tough if you play the game normally, super easy if you know how to game it.)
I'll give a more thorough examination of our game coming up.
Path to winning: Successful conquest of a neighbor followed by someone suiciding into TBS.
Way it goes wrong: I spend the rest of the game bemoaning my bad luck rather than trying to fix it.
Thoth (Hatty of Zulu)
Current Game Position (by score) : 2nd
Chances of Winning: 3%
Best Comparison: Kefka (VI - good game, not much of a boss)
Thoth played a very aggressive start and smoked Pindicator and used that to get lots of land. Unfortunately, TBS mostly matched him peacefully. Thoth, being the swing for the fences kinda guy he is, figured he could double up on his chances by blitzing dtay but after a quick start stalled out and hasn't gotten much out of dozens of turns of war. This not only hurt his chances it gave Commodore a route back into the game by taking advantage of his now soft border. Thoth still has a ton of land, so he's not out of it, but he really needs a miracle at this point.
Path to winning: TBS attacks him and really screws up, leaving him the opening he needs to catch up.
Way it goes wrong: He spends the next 20t in a bloody stalemate with dtay while Commodore grabs the rest of his land; Either Commodore or TBS picks up the pieces later.
Oxyphenbutazone (Pericles of Maya)
Current Game Position (by score) : 5th
Chances of Winning: 1%
Best Comparison: Safer Sephiroth (Possibly the most disappointing boss in the whole series)
Oxy played better than us through the first 100t. What he's done since then is what happens when you're playing against competent opposition and you don't have time to devote to the game. He's been meandering aimlessly through the tech tree basically just waiting for me, Commodore or TBS to put him out of his misery. He has a lot of land relatively speaking but no real chance of being relevant at games end.
Path to winning: TBS joins the Peace Corps and Kuro takes over for him, Oxy takes all his land while I get bogged down fighting Commodore.
Way it goes wrong: Any other scenario.
So that's the current state of the game. Later today, I'll throw up a post about the metagame decisions each player made and how they resulted in the current game state.