September 13th, 2011, 12:16
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Serdoa, I'm not dismissing your work or your points. But if I understood correctly, you suspect scooter to be Zak's partner? I have gotten no villager vibes from scooter and I have gotten some big villager reads from Zak's messages. It makes more sense to me to vote scooter today and then draw conclusions based on his alignment.
September 13th, 2011, 12:24
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Serdoa Wrote:btw: I know that nobody wants to read that wall of text. And for exactly that reason, zak is getting away with it. It is easy to look at Jkaens post and formulate an opinion. It is easy to look at TTs posts and do the same.
I'll read the text Serdoa. Hell, I went through all of his Day 1 posts and picked through them at the beginning of Day 2 on my own already. You can read my thoughts on why I suspect him less now than before my earlier big post, but I'm certainly open to a fresh look at it.
That being said, I don't think today is best used going after the more vocal villagers. zakalwe is going to keep talking and we'll continue to get better reads on him. I don't think that's true with the quieter players, and I'm very confident there's a wolf to be found there.
September 13th, 2011, 12:30
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Meiz Wrote:It makes more sense to me to vote scooter today and then draw conclusions based on his alignment.
We don't have time for this anymore. We're at 8-4 right now. We lynch a villager today, someone dies tonight, and we're at 6-4 with a double-voter still out there... And we'd have to lynch 4 straight wolves. We CAN'T mislynch today. So "lynch and find out based on alignment" is not an option for anyone.
September 13th, 2011, 12:50
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scooter Wrote:We don't have time for this anymore. We're at 8-4 right now. We lynch a villager today, someone dies tonight, and we're at 6-4 with a double-voter still out there... And we'd have to lynch 4 straight wolves. We CAN'T mislynch today. So "lynch and find out based on alignment" is not an option for anyone. Please show me the fact evidence of someone's sure guilt? I'm voting for the player I see as the most likely wolf (TT is another one, but I already said my interest to put you two on the block). Sure you say that you're innocent (who wouldn't), but I still find it hard to believe.
scooter, I asked earlier what other wolf clues people had on Sareln instead of his quiet play? Care to share you insights on that?
And out of genuine interest, what are your reasons to suspect TT, instead of his quiet play?
September 13th, 2011, 12:51
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Couple of extra ?'s that shouldn't be there
September 13th, 2011, 13:08
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Meiz Wrote:Serdoa, I'm not dismissing your work or your points. But if I understood correctly, you suspect scooter to be Zak's partner? I have gotten no villager vibes from scooter and I have gotten some big villager reads from Zak's messages. It makes more sense to me to vote scooter today and then draw conclusions based on his alignment.
No I am not sure on scooter being zaks partner. I first thought so, I suspected him enough to push for him yesterday at the end and I thought so when I read the exchange with zak. But I thought about that quite some time now. What is the most damning thing on this whole exchange for me is that zak gave scooter a free pass after scooter provided an imo rather lacking answer. Even more damning for me now that scooter pointed out that zak even lied in that whole exchange when he stated that scooter has not lashed out at uberfish when in reality in a sense he did. You see, what I say is that whole part about what really happened at that time between scooter and uberfish should have come out yesterday when zakalwe questioned him. But zakalwe did not care what answers he gets from him, imo he simply wanted to show that he is a villager who questions other players. scooter might be a wolf, scooter might be a villager but zak is clearly not playing to catch wolves.
Oh, btw: zakalwes Night 1 post is a perfect example for nonsense. Not the content. But to write it. Honestly, on Day 1 he got quite some suspicion his way. The chance of him being scried might have been high (simply for being zak), the chance of him being night-killed? Rather low I would say. I think I had much more reason to believe a kill will come my way.
But he did write one and in a tone as if everyone already told him that he for sure must be innocent. He basically declared himself innocent with that post and when you read it first, you believe it. I did so, trust me. I read it and instantly everyhing inside me screamed "zak is a villager". Having time to think about it... it makes no sense to write that. And now without power-roles left, I know it was not a power-role trying to get a high-profile so that the wolves would look somewhere else.
That he decided on night 2 that he won't write anything as he has nothing meaningful to say is just another part in this puzzle. Honestly, if he says nothing I don't care. But he defends himself BEFORE even someone questions him about it? And then by stating that he has nothing meaningful to say. I can't imagine zak writing that... but he did. Thats another tell for me that he is simply not playing village.
September 13th, 2011, 13:16
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Injera Wrote:I'll read the text Serdoa. Hell, I went through all of his Day 1 posts and picked through them at the beginning of Day 2 on my own already. You can read my thoughts on why I suspect him less now than before my earlier big post, but I'm certainly open to a fresh look at it.
I read them. I understand why you have me in the suspicious camp why he is in your "I trust him"-camp. Unfortunately for me I know that I won't change your opinion on that. Others who played a lot with zakalwe maybe - not because he plays differently, as you said people learn, but because he would have had to change his character to state several things (as pointed out in my last post, zak is not the guy to write a humble post. I like him really, but he is not only selfconfident but overconfident. Yet in this thread on several occasions he writes as if he is only a humble villager among many... and thats not the self-picture a zakalwe has from himself. Not as far as I got to know him in those games).
Quote:That being said, I don't think today is best used going after the more vocal villagers. zakalwe is going to keep talking and we'll continue to get better reads on him. I don't think that's true with the quieter players, and I'm very confident there's a wolf to be found there.
I would agree on that. Heck, I think I was the first one to point out that we have probably several wolves in the quiet category. But I don't agree on the "he will keep talking" argument. He has already kept talking for quiet some time. If what he has said is not enough to catch him, we won't catch him with 10 more posts.
September 13th, 2011, 13:16
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Righteo, here's another one of my brief forays into contributing before vanishing again for a few hours. Tomorrow I have currently no work nor plans (besides an overdue lie-in) and so I am aiming to contribute a lot more.
What I will say though, is that I prefer actually having these limited windows pretty far apart to contribute. I think too many of us get caught up and end up spending hours on here replying to each post and somewhat losing the threads of their suspicions under constant questioning of either their observations or their innocence. This is a problem which I think has led to the predicament we are in now.
I am (once again) unsurprised to see that zak resorts to going after me now his other favourite targets Rowain and MNG have met their unfortunate demises. Once again he has tunnelled in on me and I have not seen one good reason from him to suspect me any more than his other suspects. Also he says I'm playing differently than WW1 and to an extent he's right. I grew to hate WW1 and I am doing as much as I can to avoid being so emotionally invested in this game and I am trying to stick to my own logic or gut feeling if logic is failing me.
I stand my decision to switch to scooter as I became really convinced that Erebus' emotion was real and that he was screaming villager at me. I sympathised with him and pushed for catwalk to save him. Once catwalk was off the table, I took a risk to trust Serdoa and his arguments. I may still be proven wrong and scooter is innocent too, but I was determined to keep Erebus alive.
I almost feel like zak is trying to goad me into voting for him and it is becoming awfully tempting. I also think that with my reading of his posts that I am more and more uncertain of his innocence. Something isn't quite right and with someone posting in the quantity that zak does, that is much more noticeable to me.
I don't have the time to fully explain it now, but if I was to punt right now on the four wolves I would guess thus:
1) Zak - see reasons above
2) Meiz - I may be wrong on this one, but I just get the feeling from my reading that he does seem to go along with zak quite a lot. I get the impression that they are perhaps combining to try and shape the debate in the thread - as their usual play (I believe) is to do so anyway.
3) Sareln - I think that, using a WW1 analogy, he is playing the Ilios role. He is hiding away the most and even now comes up with pretty little of use when he does get involved. I'd be surprised if there were more posts by him stating something that vote tallies - a cunning disguise.
4) Catwalk/Scooter - Catwalk again (on my reading) seems to be tying himself quite closely to the zak/meiz line of argument and that is the main thread of my suspicion at this current time. His saving grace (or Meiz's) is that I don't think the wolves would try and have 3 of their number singing of the same hymnsheet so openly.
Scooter is another person who I do have some suspicion on, though his posts yesterday did make me think twice about whether he just started suckily and now is starting to get more invested and trying to make up for it. However, I do also have the feeling that the right 'synergy' of the four wolves from my perspective would be 2 out of the Zak/Meiz/Catwalk trio trying to be prominent and shape the debate and then have the silent but deadly Sareln in the shadows and a scooter who does contribute, but on a different way of thinking than the main two to avoid tying too many of them together if one went down.
This is my theory, I am not going to say its 100% accurate but its the best that I can come up with at this time and would be prepared to stake myself on it.
I hope that this will satisfy you all for a few hours while I go and 'celebrate' getting rid of 70 teenagers who've driven me up the wall for the last day and a half!
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
September 13th, 2011, 13:20
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Let me get this straight? You suspect that both me and scooter are wolves? Oh the irony
September 13th, 2011, 13:25
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Meiz - I'm not going to spend significant amounts of time responding to all of your questions, because you will never change your mind, and everyone knows it. Ask yourself this. Is there seriously a possible answer to ANY of those questions you asked where you might believe me if I wrote it? I'm guessing no.
To point out some of this hypocrisy, I'll address this though:
Meiz Wrote:scooter, I asked earlier what other wolf clues people had on Sareln instead of his quiet play? Care to share you insights on that?
Remember how I got blasted (from you mostly) for "weak evidence" for my Erebus vote? Know who else voted for Erebus? Sareln. Here was his reason:
Sareln Wrote:Roland is right, I'm not going to get anything from JKaen outside of his posting period. I'd still love to hear from him, but since my own window is about to close I'm going to park my vote on Erebus .
That is literally the ONLY thing he ever wrote about whyhe'd vote for Erebus. That's it. That's literally no reason at all. And yes I'm the one getting fried because I didn't have a 12-page treatise on why I thought he was guilty?? Doesn't make sense unless you have a severe case of tunnel vision.
A question I'd like to pose. If I'm a werewolf, why is Meiz not dead yet? He's literally the only person who has me at the top of his radar (though I make honorable mention for a few people apparently), and I honestly believe if he wasn't in this game I'd be much more trusted, but he's been following me around shouting wolf every time I post. So why isn't he dead yet? It surely isn't fear of baner protection, as the logicl baner move probably would be protecting Serdoa/Ichabod, so why not? I mean Meiz, you are totally unwilling to admit you could be wrong, but I'm at least hoping others will be willing to consider that you might be wrong.
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