[SPOILERS] Can't we all just get along? (lurker thread)

[uberfish]

This is close to a forced F win if it isn't there already.

Ok I don't see how France does not win this now - 5 units hold Germany, 5 the Med position and the push into Finland and St Petersburg can't be stopped.

[Rowain]

From Rowain's latest post it looks like Rowain made the assumption that scooter should have taken his public declaration of war as an invitation for negotiations, or a starting point for them, but scooter instead took that rowain had made his mind up to go after scooter and let Turkey win. So yeah, fail on both their parts.

Too true.

It's actually a completely reasonable strategy for Russia on the wrong end of a 2v1 to throw the entire SE of the board to Turkey, and then say to France: "I'll hold the north for a draw, but throw the game to Turkey if you so much as move one unit in a suspicious direction."

While true I didn't want another 3 way draw this game. So I had little interest to push for that. I wanted a return to Status quo ante before France took DEN with a 3 powers endgame in flux.

Wrong strategy from Russia imo. Helping France now while he has no navy is practically begging France to attack him in Scandinavia afterwards. Even St Pete cannot be defended against enemy naval superiority, and Russia has no attacking prospects against French holdings without a navy. And Germany + Scandinavia + St Pete + Tunis is enough for an 18 sc French win.

(For this reason, Turkey must NOT allow France to hold Tunis even if it plans to stab Russia.)

My goal was to reach a 3way end game where none of the 2 other powers (France & Turkey) will attack Russia out of fear from a solo-win of the other party. Didn't want to make either F or T too nervous about Russia (thats also visible in my support Turkey into VIE move earlier). Obviously this didn't work out as inteded.

[scooter]

Scooter: Great play on his part. Only annoyed at the 1+ hour of nice chat just before the stab. If he'd have been quiet, would we have been 1% more suspicious? no - we were blind to it - at least I was -- i was supposed to be the guy on the team looking out for that sort of thing ... so "FAIL" on my part.

This was the one part I felt kind of bad about, but I felt like I needed to. The reason was, the stab was something I had been setting up and planning for for several phases already. I wasn't ever 100% sure I was going to follow through, but I was planning it into my moves so I had the option. I was afraid you guys were going to get suspicious, and I hadn't really talked to you guys much during that phase, so I felt I had to get on that last hour or chat through move possibilities. I was afraid if you guys had an hour to yourselves before the deadline you'd figure it out. I think my fears were actually well-placed since Uberfish apparently figured it out:

Check the following possible moves out for example: Build A MAR "I'm attacking Italy with it", Mar->Bur, Bel->Ruh, Pie->Tyr, Eng C Wal->Bel

Haha, called it exactly.

This made me laugh, but yeah, he nailed it. If you guys had an hour to talk to each other without me and think about why I had been so quiet that phase (completely unrelated to a stab, but it can be enough to up the paranoia level), maybe you could have come to the same conclusion? I figured I needed to keep you occupied. Also, I was only about 75% sure I needed to go through with it. I was still a little bit on the fence, so I figured having that chat would give me a good read on your game and whether or not I needed to take that window. I didn't really see anything to change your mind, so I felt I had to go through with it. My primary reason was I wanted to solo, and I felt that was my best window so really I needed to go for that.

I think Rowain made a mistake to build yet another army. He can't get all the armies he has into position yet, let alone a new one. He'd have done much better to get a fleet in the water, and probably to follow up with a 2nd next year if he has the build.

Build is also totally incomprehensible to me and I think there's a high chance he will come to regret it.

Not sure if I ever explained this in my thread and I don't see an explanation in Rowain's thread, but basically this was a bit of a reparation on Rowain's part for not following through on a promise. I don't quite remember which one it went with, but I sent a few unhappy messages to Rowain and he eventually offered this to get me to shut up . I'm not sure if persistence paid off or if Rowain planned to do it and merely "offered" it as a concession, but from my limited knowledge, that's what happened. Rowain may have to comment further.

Yeah, I agree that blackmail is legit, but I don't think Rowain's made it clear that scooter has an option, and scooter hasn't even tried to talk to Rowain about options. From Rowain's latest post it looks like Rowain made the assumption that scooter should have taken his public declaration of war as an invitation for negotiations, or a starting point for them, but scooter instead took that rowain had made his mind up to go after scooter and let Turkey win. So yeah, fail on both their parts.

Agreed with this, especially the last sentence. My main issue is I was very unhappy at the time, so I avoided messaging Rowain for a couple days. I figured if I responded immediately I would just say something dumb to anger Rowain and totally ruin my chances, so I kept my mouth shut for a couple days. Plus like I said, I was unhappy so I was frequently thinking revenge and not thinking in my best interests . I felt Rowain was in a kingmaker position and that at that point, he had chosen T and I just needed to be in damage control mode. But yes, fail on both our parts, I do think I could have managed the damage control in a much better way.

My goal was to reach a 3way end game where none of the 2 other powers (France & Turkey) will attack Russia out of fear from a solo-win of the other party. Didn't want to make either F or T too nervous about Russia (thats also visible in my support Turkey into VIE move earlier). Obviously this didn't work out as inteded.

I can't speak for Turkey, but my main reason for not being particularly interested in your hard bargaining was I didn't see any real benefit in doing so. Basically, I could come to an agreement with you where I gave you more centers than you could otherwise achieve in the north, stalemate in the south, and sit quietly and wait for the inevitable 3-way draw. My other option was to just play aggressively in the north. If it failed and you threw things towards Turkey. I still felt that I was strong enough to prevent him from solo'ing even with your help. It would be tight, but I viewed the outcome to be the same between playing aggressively and you punishing me for it and playing to your desires... But playing aggressively has the upside of solo potential if I get a bit lucky, so I felt that was my only choice. I played things much differently with Mattimeo because he had legitimate power in the south. Basically, I was not completely convinced you could completely give Mattimeo a solo if you wanted to, though it would certainly be close. So I took the risk and hoped the status quo changed.

EDIT: just saw this in Mattimeo's thread, this is what I was talking about:

I guess this game is going to come down to whoever Rowain throws it to. Or scooter, since I'm not sure I can even push to 18 at this stage, even if Rowain was to let me.

[Rowain]

Not sure if I ever explained this in my thread and I don't see an explanation in Rowain's thread, but basically this was a bit of a reparation on Rowain's part for not following through on a promise. I don't quite remember which one it went with, but I sent a few unhappy messages to Rowain and he eventually offered this to get me to shut up . I'm not sure if persistence paid off or if Rowain planned to do it and merely "offered" it as a concession, but from my limited knowledge, that's what happened. Rowain may have to comment further.

It was the consequence of a mistake. I ordered (in a last second switch ) STP-LVN instead of STP- FIN in fall before. With that my standing in the north was too weak to make scooter totally unhappy so I had to reconcile him. => an army instead of a fleet.

That move STP - LVN is one epic fail for me in this game.

[Bigger]

congrats Scooter, well deserved

[Molach]

Yeah I lagged out for the last season sorry.
A deserved win, congrats.

[Mardoc]

Yeah I lagged out for the last season sorry.
A deserved win, congrats.

Thanks for stepping up when you did, though! It made the game much more interesting.

[uberfish]

My goal was to reach a 3way end game where none of the 2 other powers (France & Turkey) will attack Russia out of fear from a solo-win of the other party. Didn't want to make either F or T too nervous about Russia (thats also visible in my support Turkey into VIE move earlier). Obviously this didn't work out as inteded.

It boils down to map layout really. Turkey can't solo by stabbing Russia until it holds centres over the stalemate line. France already had Tunis and would find it very difficult to push against Turkey. Therefore France was always going to try and solo by attacking Russia and appeasement efforts would be futile.

Anyway, congrats to Scooter for the win.

[Rowain]

It boils down to map layout really. Turkey can't solo by stabbing Russia until it holds centres over the stalemate line. France already had Tunis and would find it very difficult to push against Turkey. Therefore France was always going to try and solo by attacking Russia and appeasement efforts would be futile.

Replace my moves in spring 08 with:

A TYR S GERMAN A BER - MUN, A BOH S GERMAN A BER - MUN, A PRU - BER, A SIL S A PRU - BER, A SWE - DEN. After that France is down 1 center (and could even lose KIE too - depending on guesswork).

And germans move with A BER -MUN. I think it would have been enough for turkey to win afterwards.