Edit: I'm sorry, I think I did that incorrectly. Assuming the first option is now at 1/16 odds, lets go ahead and just assume it begins to approach zero for some random reason. Would make the following more simple at least.
Therefore, it would make the chance that Uber is sane something slightly less than 75%, but considerably larger than 50%.
Therefore I would say it is not a cointoss, but instead I will play the odds slightly in my favor and vote for Brick.
----> as an interesting side note ... I could have only found out that I was sane if I scanned Mattimeo last night and got an innocent result. In every other scenario, I either confirm paranoid (brick or matt as scum), or I am torn between sane and insane (Brick as innocent).
It would have been quite fun to get an innocent read on Brick last night however ... as that would have made day far more interesting
Therefore, it would make the chance that Uber is sane something slightly less than 75%, but considerably larger than 50%.
Therefore I would say it is not a cointoss, but instead I will play the odds slightly in my favor and vote for Brick.
----> as an interesting side note ... I could have only found out that I was sane if I scanned Mattimeo last night and got an innocent result. In every other scenario, I either confirm paranoid (brick or matt as scum), or I am torn between sane and insane (Brick as innocent).
It would have been quite fun to get an innocent read on Brick last night however ... as that would have made day far more interesting
