[Spoilers] Shallow Thought and Hitru's series of (unfortunate?) events

[shallow_thought]

Well, the good news is that we have horses in a nice location. Not only convenient, but providing a workable tile for AA! Do horses naturally appear under forest, BTW?




Bad news is that other people probably have them close as well, so we need a counter. Luckily for us, Immortals make an OKish counter to chariots, so we can probably save a few hammers on spears in the short term. Got to find the hammers for Immortals first though...

Hitru pointed out that getting past t50 alive was no excuse for sloppy micro, and that the granary at the cap was going to complete at a really bad point in the food cycle. This is because I'd not followed through on re-working after swapping to workboat first, of course. So, a few tweaks, and the plan becomes (roughly):

Cap puts turn into axe, then worker (chop/whip), then finish axe with overflow to avoid hammer decay, then remaining overflow goes into granary.
AA has just whipped its granary. It then puts turn into its axe, which passes the six hammer barrier and frees up the warrior to go MP at cap, then starts a settler once it gets back to size 3. Chop from horses goes into that.
BB puts turn into axe once it gets to size 2, then completes barracks, then some combo of workboat/axe.
CC finishes barracks, then maybe a cheeky warrior for more MP, then granary?

Worker A finishes mine at BB then heads NE, ready to help road towards ivory. Can put down roads and cottages as it travels.
Worker B chops at cap, then starts on cottages, maybe finishes PH mine east of cap.
Worker C cottages shared Cap/CC tile and then works towards ivory.
Worker D chops forest at horses then pastures.
Worker E works E, then starts roading towards silver. Cover for this will come from ... somewhere.

Oh, and we don't want to chop the forest at dyes for a while unless there is no other chop available. CC may end up working this tile on-and-off.

We're still at 60% break-even after CC. Still going Writing first, but then debating Sailing against Iron Working. I need to calculate how much trade a city on that island would be worth. I don't even have a rule-of-thumb for that .

[shallow_thought]

A quietish turn. Realised I'd made a small mess of the micro plan - there is significant overflow from AA's whip that I'd rather have into a settler than the axe. That means the axe will only be swapped in next turn, and will only be whippable the turn after that, so I need to keep the warrior around rather than moving it to the cap as MP. Well, I only realised this after I'd moved it , but it's still in range of AA, so can hang out where it is for a turn. Or it could even go and cover the unprotected worker - but if an Impi or chariot comes out of the fog that would probably be pointless anyway  .  This is a rather uninformative screenshot, but at least it has the turn number and score in it to remind me when I look back over my notes.




Demos. I'd be happier if my crop yield were higher, but we'll see what happens when I actually let my cities grow. I am a bit concerned the big value. I'm guessing Coeurva is getting a little bit of a snowball going.




Speaking of crop yield - ouch for Magic Science. His power also fell slightly this turn. He does have three cities though, and his score hasn't dropped, so maybe he's just working hammers? Charriu is also out to three, but RFS-81 is still on two.




I'll just keep on with this farmer's gambit some more, try and ride other players nerves' about the Zulu and Rome a bit. We will have the ability to whip an axe out of BeaB next turn, and one out of AA in 2t, as well as one from the cap. Might even get round to finishing one soon! Plan remains to try and get 3 more cities out to grab silver and some of that land to the west, and worry about the economy a bit later. As Hitru has pointed out, alternative is to get sailing and send one settler off to the island, which we'll do if economy falls faster than expected or if expansion to west gets blocked.

[shallow_thought]

We've played t53 and are getting the beginnings of drama in the tech thread. I'd like to avoid more, but my playing windows are likely to be very limited over the next two days. So, just in case, let's prepare a plan. There's quite a lot of switching back and forth to do with builds, unfortunately, and I wouldn't guarantee that my calculations below are correct. I'd love to have been more precise with this, but ... meh.

Ah, good, looks like Hitru can cover, so some of this may be redundant, but as I'd already worked on it, here goes.

Some general principles:
- Avoid connecting CC; I think we need an MP warrior out of there.
- Don't chop any forests in BeaB's BFC into CC; they are needed for lighthouse/Moai.
- Don't chop the forested dyes until CC has a better tile to work.

T54:
- Turn science on (double check there's enough gold for Writing).
- Move warrior between AA and cap to cap, to act as MP. Could perhaps delay this, but we'll want to grow onto cottages after next whip, so he needs to be in the area.

T55:
- Decide what to do with worker Adze; either 2t road to connect BeaB, or 1NE and 1t road.
- Worker Bradawl moves 1t N and starts a cottage (I don't feel too strongly about this).
- Whip the capital, assuming there's 1t unhappy to go. If it seems more efficient to wait 1t, that's OK so long as worker finishes this turn.
- Switch in settler at AA to get chop hammers.
- Finish barracks at BeaB, switch to axe.

T56
- Must work on axe at cap to avoid decay; probably best to finish with overflow or a whip this turn.
- If Adze isn't roading, consider moving him to help Chisel cottage.

T57: what, you want me to plan 3t ahead? Um...
- Start horse pasture
- Workers Adze and Chisel work to develop CC. One can road the forested dyes, one move to chop the forest 1W of the city, perhaps?

Here's the relevant snippet from the spreadsheet.

[shallow_thought]

I've had a three-day break from the game because of a family wedding. In the meantime Hitru has stepped in, with the following result. First in the important demos!




Of course, I then had to make two whips this turn, so it didn't last . Despite that, the empire is looking nice and busy. We've actually got some military!




We should have a settler out of AA quickly, supported by two axes and a worker, ready to push for the silver. It's going to be food-poor until we can get a barracks in there, and we don't know what RFS-81 has been up to in the meantime. He's been on three cities a little while, so should be looking to expand. It's also on flatland, although the river helps a little, but I can't see a better option. Settling on the silver would be ... sad, and 2N is just too far away.




After that we try a similar push to the cows W and NW; again, could be a bit dependent on what Charriu has in the area. He's out to four cities. We're still several turns away from his graphs. City E could come 1E for speed and safety, but I don't really want to be having to push borders to keep the grassland cows. City F is another flatland gamble, and could go 1NE to get on a hill, but would then need a fast border pop to get any food - and would lose the gems (should have had resources on for these screenshots, dammit).




Last thing on the current horizon settle our island for the trade routes, so it will probably be sailing after writing. Considering slipping Mysticism in before that, simply for the flexibility of having the second pre-req for Masonry if we decide we need to go that way instead. Once that stone is linked up we would be able to whip walls in a hurry.

[shallow_thought]

Double turn today. We have another settler out, covered by 2/3 of our real military (although I've managed to crop the stack description out of the screenshot ). RFS-81's scout is keeping a close eye on things.



Equally close is the eye Charriu is keeping on the other side. We've moved our last axe in such a way as to ... dissuade him from further exploration. We'll have a settler ready to head that way in 5t, and I'm hoping to get a chop/whipped axe out of CC to double-up on the cover. We still want that warrior first for MP at cap, so workers are dancing to avoid connecting CC until the right moment.



It's odd, both our neighbours turning up to check on us at once. I'm looking forward to seeing Charriu's graphs - they should be next turn, but if I understand correctly that may change if he spends against us; we're looking comfortable against RFS-81 (whose power dipped slightly this turn - I'm not 100% certain what would cause that in Civ IV other than losing a weak unit while gaining something else; hmm). I was (over)worrying about potential double-moves after playing last the previous turn, but by the time I'd had dinner, watered the garden and chatted to Hitru they'd both played. I guess we're still all fresh and keen.

[Dark Savant]

Do horses naturally appear under forest, BTW?

No, unless you're on a weird map script like Fantasy.

RFS-81 (whose power dipped slightly this turn - I'm not 100% certain what would cause that in Civ IV other than losing a weak unit while gaining something else; hmm).

Every other population point is worth 1000 power, so power can also dip slightly if you whip an even-numbered population point and you gain no power otherwise.  That's not unlikely at this point in the game.

[shallow_thought]

Buddhism has fallen. Couerva? I'd have thought Superdeath was having too much fun with impis. As was half expected, Charriu's EP spend against us means another turn without his graphs. I (re-)discover the culture display toggle, after Hitru pointed out we could see Magic Science's borders in the fog to the N.




However, it's a double turn, so we get graphs after all. I'm not sure whether to be happy we're competitive / slightly ahead of our neighbours, or disappointed we haven't ridden IMP away into the sunset yet . Still time for that - lots of land to grab. So, graphs and demos (including the wiggles from RFS-81).

However, I'm unable to play because I can't peer negotiate with either RFS-81 or Charriu (although I can with Magic Science). Sigh. Waiting... but they actually take less time in game than I tend to, so can't complain really.

And then I log in alongside MS (busy evening!) and it all gets a bit exciting. We found Duncan Q and that shows us a bunch of units - settler and worker parties from the north. Technically, we may have just double-moved him - we were blind until this point, and I was focused on RFS-81. I can't tell whether he had moved that settler (under the archer - with a worker) or not. If he hadn't he could technically have settled 1SE. Not a good choice, IMHO, but we've now blocked him. Also note the unmined copper to the E. I'm pretty sure RFS-81 already has axes, so that's a backup supply for him. Alternatively, he has chariots.




Speaking of chariots, we start a couple of Immortals now that horses are lined up; there are also two more axes already in the pipeline. I think we'll need them, assuming life is as crowded out W and it has become in the E. We'd kind of like to skate along with fewer spears, relying on Immortals defensive bonuses to close the gap and save us hammers, as we need the two-movers anyway.

And, in other news, this turn-pace has caught up with attempts at micro planning ahead. Hitru's greater involvement keeps plugging the gaps, but the game is now really on.

[shallow_thought]

I am very sorry, but I think that we need a reload. The details of the situation are in my thread for general lurkers to see.

Sigh. Not sure what the ruling is on this one - I had no idea he was there, and just wanted to play my turn to avoid playing it tomorrow morning or asking for a pause. I agree it looks bad though from a certain angle. I'm not going to throw my toys out of the pram if there is lurker consensus, but there was no intention to gain advantage.

[Old Harry]

As an entirely unbiased observer totally biased cheerleader I'd say if you don't know you're in a settling race you can't double move. And that for the sake of the turn timer anything that encourages players to play early should be approved. And why didn't he settle as the first thing he did?

[shallow_thought]

Well, this is not the report I thought I'd be writing. I spent part of last night awake worrying the work, game, and about my wife being annnoyed with me and the amount of time I was spending on the game. The rest I spent asleep, but dreaming about worrying about the game, and my wife being angry. Apparently my subconcious is bored with worrying about work.

I have been trying to think out what I have done wrong. Being IMP should have meant being first to these positions, not a narrow squeak - and against a big reach from the opposition at that. I suspect that the hammers spent on granaries would have looked very silly with settlers wandering around with nowhere to go, and not enough happiness to grow properly. And I was all ready to take a deep breath and accept the turn order from the previous turn (Hitru, not so much - he's made of sterner stuff).

But the ruling has gone in our favour. Duncan Q is not wiped from the timeline. This is a big deal - we have been trying to find a fallback position, and there is nothing much. I actually favoured whipping four immortals and going all out to raze MS plant (which must have been aimed on the flatland to get both silver and wheat first ring). I reckon we could have been there in 6t. We could then either have planted on our current position, or even on silver for defense and guaranteed access to the resource. But now we don't have to do that.

We have to be very aware that MS is probably angry and frustrated. He has obviously worked extremely hard to get another settler out, given his earlier loss - kudos. I would also be very surprised if he can move towards Superdeath or Couerva (assuming they are his eastern and western neighbours). He is currently higher in power than us. So, we might be needing to whip those immortals sooner rather than later.

As an entirely unbiased observer totally biased cheerleader I'd say if you don't know you're in a settling race you can't double move. And that for the sake of the turn timer anything that encourages players to play early should be approved. And why didn't he settle as the first thing he did?

Thanks for the useful morale boost!