[Spoilers] Old Human Tourist: Empress of Azteca

[Old Harry]

Oh you tease Ceil! Unfortunately I know too much about stats to expect to get a big swing back in our favour. Although I clearly don't know enough to crush Mardoc... the only reason we're making progress is that he keeps throwing longbows at us.

Also we did get lucky to get so many huts at the start, and with the sleepy state of our first neighbour, so don't take the complaints too seriously.

[Old Harry]

From pitboss portal it looks like Mardoc took Infrared back.

Also I'm now only seventeen posts behind Fintourist on this thread. Can I come up with seventeen posts worth of content before he gets back?

[TheHumanHydra]

Isn't the 'random' number generator known to be streaky?

[Fintourist]

From pitboss portal it looks like Mardoc took Infrared back.

Also I'm now only seventeen posts behind Fintourist on this thread. Can I come up with seventeen posts worth of content before he gets back?

No way! I'm gonna log in soon and spam ~5 posts full with random comments and for RNG.

Don't even dare to reply here...

[Old Harry]

If you want to switch to some wealth builds JB, Nina, Izzy and a few other places would be good.

[Fintourist]

Couple of comments, I did not change anything because Mardoc had already played. Mardoc captured Infrared back and has a wounded HA there, next turn we can take it for good.

Next steps in war:
- I think we might want to take Troubleshooter next. It has a nice wet corn in the first ring and it's nearby. After that we could take Yellow or release Azza from his turn-playing duties. The main reason for diving deeper with Mardoc immediately is the fact that he can build relevant units while Azza not, and thus destroying Mardoc's production power is more valuable. Mardoc's current engineering ETA is 10 turns and pikes could be annoying. He has one source of iron available at his current capital, "Green", which I think we could disconnect in time. However, of course there is a fair chance that BGN or someone else would gift Mardoc iron so I would not sacrifice enormous amount of resources for that. And after all, I guess Mardoc has whipped himself down already and we can also catapult us through some pikes.
--> Anyways, let's not give our catapults a single turn of rest and start heading them towards new engagements immediately so that we keep increasing our city count. As said, Troubleshooter is a decent option for the next fight, or how do you see it?

National wonders (reg vA question):
- 8 banks/universities is quite much so we are not talking about super super fast Wall Street/Oxford. However, I think both are on the near-term agenda for our capital, Alfie, which will beautifully reach size 19 in 3 turns. Due to cheap Financial banks and our break-even rate being pretty much 50 % (at least before awesome Free Market), going Wall Street first is very likely the case here.

Tech path:
- I guess the quick comment here is that we are thinking along the same lines here
- Economics is now obviously the next tech and I think we should try to get it EOT148 as every turn in Free Market is worth a load of commerce. I can do some math next turn as our overflow goes into the tech and we can calculate the exact amount of gold that we are currently short of finishing it in 4 turns. I think we could try to go for a loan anyways and see if e.g. Krill+novice would loan us 250 gold for 26/27 gpt. I think we now have a common enemy in dtay and we might as well start assuming that it makes us friends.
- After economics I like Printing Press quite a lot (dtay is now going for it so we might as well follow and it brings almost +50 base commerce immediately). From economic perspective Philo-Nat-Constitution-Corporation would be after that a way to go, but I think we want to reach the next level in our militaristic capabilities. Philo-Nat-Military Tradition and Gunpowder for Cuirs and Astronomy for Galleons seems like a solid path. However, this is something we already chatted with OH: RB-wisdom generally values 2-movers highly for a good reason. But in this game, once we have conquered the whole continent, our warfare will basically be navy-based for the rest of the game and 2-movers lose lot of their value. Thus skipping Philo-Nat-Mil Trad and just going for Galleons, Frigates, Rifles and Cannons is a better option than it usually is. (The downside of this is that we will be far away from Corporation, but I guess + 1 trade route is not thaaaaat good.)
- I haven't yet thought through about the Astronomy bulb, 2-man GA plan, but assuming you are correct it sounds attractive to me

Macro position:
I think dtay now has 4 more cities than we do and higher quality land. So unfortunately we are not going to become a huge early run-away that I dreamed of. I think we have played a solid game and we have been lucky with our Azza-Mardoc continent. However, it seems that dtay has had even more luck with Whosit-CH-combo. CH spilled some dtay blood, but it's clear that Mardoc is giving us a harder time. Party due to our weak RNG luck, which slowed our attack crucially, partially because Mardoc has played economically a stronger game than CH, who could not reach Feudalism during the whole war.

BGN is ahead of us in score, but I would not say that he is really ahead of us when it comes to game position. He has lots of score from wonders, but is behind in city count. However, it seems that his catch up phase has begun and it looks like he will be one of the strong ones in the game

Assuming we will finish Azza+Mardoc eventually, our third neighbor will be pindicator who is now just behind us (4th in score). Yay for having a conquerable continent, but damn for being squeezed between 3 opponents with highest score after that.. However, pindicator has significantly less cities than we do and there is still some hope that he will start a war with Cyneheard or even dtay and we can benefit from the situation. Let's hope he does not see us a realistic target or even as an enemy that he simply wants to hurt.

Krill+Novice are sitting in the 5th place in score, but have most cities in the game after we and dtay. I actually wonder how did they manage to get so many, because I haven't noticed them really fighting that much. Yes, couple of cities from Whosit and there was something with Ruff back then, but somehow they still have way more land than they should.

There is still many things that can go wrong, but the fact that Azza+Mardoc still have 12 cities combined and there filler places to settle I like our chances of reaching 45-50 cities in semi-near future. After that we might be squeezed between strong neighbors, but 50 cities would still be more than what dtay has currently and if he wants more he needs to start fighting stronger opponents. Well, plako could actually be a completely realistic conquest target for dtay in a while, but that will still be a much harder task + he surely needs to commit some resources for his borders with us, Krovice + pindicator.

Misc:
- Cyneheard has a galley in range of Upland Cress, I think we want to cover it with a knight next turn just that we don't tempt him too much,
- dtay indeed has knights in his nearby cities so simply burning couple of cities from him is not too attractive. Let's just consume Azza and Mardoc first and then see if we can backstab him. I would imagine this is one of the situations where earlier games bring some burden. After PB13 I doubt that neither of us will ever think that our border will be completely safe..
- I like the way Cornelius has now grown closer to its potential (at size 12), at next sizes it can pick again mines/specialists and get that bank and possibly a great merchant done.
- I think we are now playing it correctly with Butterscotch and Daisy. Size 9 is probably the proper size for Daisy forever so that it can work all those workshops and use corn every second turn while we should get B to size 12-14 so that it can work the coast as well.
- That hindu missionary is going for zucchini, right? We want those pigs inside our borders asap..
- Once we are sure that we don't lose Aspargus we want a missionary there also. That own source of incense will be extremely useful. Another option is to simply found a filler NE of the resource. Actually, now that Free Market is coming soon we should totally do it.
- Actually, for the same reason, could you build us a city in the extreme south that I have noted as "great city". Galley NW of lucky should be the transport, Twinkle can be useful and whip a WB and e.g. Rocky or Snowdrop can whip a settler
- I don't see other fillers as important/useful/practical before we have finished Azza off.
- Gertie has -1 health- I did not check if we could trade us something, but regardless the city could get a grocer after it has finished the bank
- I think Lucky should give up on that tundra hill mine and just work coast. I guess that's just for being able to whip that cat next turn, but just saying so that it does not become a habit
- I think Nina should give up on that plains workshop pretty soon and grow couple of sizes onto coast even if that's a bit slow and coast is not thaaat valuable.
- Is zucchini plains mine instead of grass mine on purpose? Does it speed up the knight/next build in a crucial way?


Ok, that's enough for now... Too tired to actually double-check for typos etc, so apologizes!

[Old Harry]

That's a great post. This is the sort of thing that really helps me focus on the big picture instead of getting bogged down in the sand .

Next steps in war:
- I think we might want to take Troubleshooter next.

You're probably right, but it's got 40% culture and walls, while Communist, Ultraviolet, Green, Violet and PURGE are all 20% or less without walls. I think the first priority is to wipe out the cat stack and the other HAs (wherever they went). After that C2 Knights get odds on the LBs in Communist and Ultraviolet. UV can be hit from the NE diagonal when the culture readjusts, so it could be a very easy win, opening up the other cities. We don't know what Violet or Green are like yet, but I think we should unload the HA 2S of Green to fork the cities. If it is a trap then at least we'll injure and unfortify a spear.

Tech path:
- Economics is now obviously the next tech and I think we should try to get it EOT148 as every turn in Free Market is worth a load of commerce. I can do some math next turn as our overflow goes into the tech and we can calculate the exact amount of gold that we are currently short of finishing it in 4 turns.

I think 4 turns should be easy. Perhaps one or two Wealth builds will get us there.

- After economics I like Printing Press quite a lot (dtay is now going for it so we might as well follow and it brings almost +50 base commerce immediately). From economic perspective Philo-Nat-Constitution-Corporation would be after that a way to go, but I think we want to reach the next level in our militaristic capabilities. Philo-Nat-Military Tradition and Gunpowder for Cuirs and Astronomy for Galleons seems like a solid path. However, this is something we already chatted with OH: RB-wisdom generally values 2-movers highly for a good reason. But in this game, once we have conquered the whole continent, our warfare will basically be navy-based for the rest of the game and 2-movers lose lot of their value. Thus skipping Philo-Nat-Mil Trad and just going for Galleons, Frigates, Rifles and Cannons is a better option than it usually is. (The downside of this is that we will be far away from Corporation, but I guess + 1 trade route is not thaaaaat good.)

PP-Philo sounds good to me, although Compass could slot in there to allow a Harbour and Customs house in Gertie. And Drama gets us a 200 beaker discount on Philosophy.

On the merits of 2-movers vs 1-movers at sea: We can currently make 11XP Knights from Hazelnut, while 1-movers are 9XP and can't take Amphibious...

- I haven't yet thought through about the Astronomy bulb, 2-man GA plan, but assuming you are correct it sounds attractive to me

I checked in world builder, because I didn't quite trust myself either. If we go for Astro I think we should try to bulb it, but there is a chance that we don't need to go for Astro - 3-move Ironclads and galleys from Hazelnut make a fairly formidable force on this map. Physics is the next tech that requires Astronomy, but that's some way off at the moment. I'd probably prefer to get Astro, but it's an option.

Macro position:
There is still many things that can go wrong, but the fact that Azza+Mardoc still have 12 cities combined and there filler places to settle I like our chances of reaching 45-50 cities in semi-near future.

This is a great point - with a huge interior we can afford to make our coasts pretty spikey and run a farmers gambit internally. Perhaps we don't need to put so much thought into hitting our competitors, but old habits die hard .

After that we might be squeezed between strong neighbors, but 50 cities would still be more than what dtay has currently and if he wants more he needs to start fighting stronger opponents. Well, plako could actually be a completely realistic conquest target for dtay in a while, but that will still be a much harder task + he surely needs to commit some resources for his borders with us, Krovice + pindicator.

I think dtay has some backwards neighbours to his north, but that Pindicator and the Hindu Shrine could also appeal to him.

Misc:
- Cyneheard has a galley in range of Upland Cress, I think we want to cover it with a knight next turn just that we don't tempt him too much,

Good spot. It was next to his city last turn.

- That hindu missionary is going for zucchini, right? We want those pigs inside our borders asap..

He was headed for Yam, but he can divert...

- Once we are sure that we don't lose Aspargus we want a missionary there also. That own source of incense will be extremely useful. Another option is to simply found a filler NE of the resource. Actually, now that Free Market is coming soon we should totally do it.
- Actually, for the same reason, could you build us a city in the extreme south that I have noted as "great city". Galley NW of lucky should be the transport, Twinkle can be useful and whip a WB and e.g. Rocky or Snowdrop can whip a settler

This. I've been wondering when to start spamming cities for all the filler spots. Also which cities to whip them out of... We want all our northern cities to grow nice and big, so I can see Izzy, Lucky, Nina, Rocky and Snowdrop producing a lot of Settlers for us.

- Gertie has -1 health- I did not check if we could trade us something, but regardless the city could get a grocer after it has finished the bank

Or harbour? (Requires compass)

- I think Lucky should give up on that tundra hill mine and just work coast. I guess that's just for being able to whip that cat next turn, but just saying so that it does not become a habit

It would have grown unhappy. In fact I think that whipping some Settlers out of Lucky may just be the best answer to its overfeeding problem

I agree with most of your other points, will have to go through them again with the game in front of me next turn...

[Old Harry]

Isn't the 'random' number generator known to be streaky?

Well computers aren't very good at generating perfect random numbers anyway, but I presume its good enough to fool me... as for civ being streaky - do you have a source? That sounds familiar, but also the sort of thing that is inherent in random numbers and which people just don't realise. Like how with more than 28 people in a room the odds are better than 50% two will share a birthday. Or tossing 5 heads or tails in a row should happen every 16th time you toss 5 coins.

[Old Harry]

Turn 146 prelude

The news from the west is that there is one Longbow in each city. And also that our HA has a 20% chance of taking Violet if we gamble next turn... And also that BGN only just adopted Bureau!


Our green Knight gets 96% without promo and 97% with, so sending him to fight the HA unpromoted means he can promo-heal twice this turn if he wins...


He does but the Granary got trashed in the re-conquest.


Mardoc's stack of stuff is here, our Mace gets 74% on the Welly, then our injured Knights should finish off the rest handily. I was wondering about sacrificing a cat to make things easier, but I don't think it helps a lot.. Anyway, I'll play this evening, so if you have any thoughts give me a shout.


Domestically:
- Should we 2-pop whip Flossie's bank?
- If we whip Lucky's cat then we can overflow to a settler and whip that t148.
- 2-pop whip Ophelia's Longbow just in case that Galley has anything on it?
- 2-pop whip the knight in Z to make the city grow a turn earlier?
- Watercress will grow every turn for the foreseeable future

[Ceiliazul]

as for civ being streaky - do you have a source? That sounds familiar

GDC 2010: Sid Meier Keynote - "Everything You Kno…: http://youtu.be/bY7aRJE-oOY

A pretty insighful hour. including some notes about the tweaking of the rng. BUT. Ive always assumed that the tweaks did not apply to mp... maybe im giving them too much credit, I dont know.