Diplomacy No press Game 01 LURKER THREAD [NO PLAYERS]

[Gaspar]

I've got $5 on:

Austria being scooter.

[regoarrarr]

Your guesses are interesting, and I neither confirm nor deny them (though if there's a consensus, I could...)

Also interesting that people have enough of a writing "style" that they can be identified. But remember, the players themselves don't see any of that, so they can't really know anything.

Also, remember that one option we have with the judges is a gunboat full press game - so it's like a regular game, but again, nobody knows who is playing who. Might be harder to do a lurker thread like this though. And since our RB Dip community is pretty small, it might be pretty easy to guess who's who...

[regoarrarr]

And, on that note, here's some notes from Turkey

France marches vs Italy to get a bit out of it before Austria swallows all. The not building of a F BRE was a sign of friendship towards England and the supportorder into Belgium did underline it. I think the the fleet in MAO will not enter IRI but WES speeding up the end of Italy.

England had shown friendship to France too by moving the fleets northwards and can take now either STP (if Russia prefers to guard the south ) or get a sure center from Germany (either SWE or DEN ). Althoug I'm sure that a ENG-GER clash will happen I believe that England will first try to get rid of Russia in the north but the temptation of curbing Germany now is there.

Germany has made an offer to a joined atttack on Austria to France so this turn we will see the responses to this.

Austria has decided to be pro Turkey in spring I hope it doesn't turn in fall Austria will get VEN and after that Italy will soon be dead. The german order to support a french Army into Tyr is something to consider for him.

Russia's offer was a bit weak if it even was one and not expressing the wish that my Armenian army should go to hell

Predictions: Austria will be big, Italy will be dead and one of Turkey or Russia will be in trouble soon.

[regoarrarr]

Thoughts from Germany

Thoughts on Spring 1902:

Another good season for Germany.

England: Decided to go fully north which, in a way, is good news. He
may have eyes on Scandinavia though and maybe future eyes on the
German heartland after he gets a few builds.

France: He made the move I hoped he would, did not make a play for
Belgium and simply defended Burgundy. I don't mind that support order
for ENG-Bel because I would have made the exact same move in his
position. Clearly England is his ally and he would rather him than me
have Belgium. He must have been very worried about a German attack on
him this season and yet he is still moving units with a view to
heading south (army in Mar is nice) and I hope that my set of moves
simply told him that I was only interested in Belgium and that I would
help him head towards Italy/Austria.

Austria: A very good set of moves. This guy strikes me as being a very
intelligent player. Not only does he support Turkey's expected move
from Bul to Rum, but he moves there himself from Serbia on the
off-chance Turkey supported him instead. And with his move to Tyr, he
will cash in on Venice next turn. This is a very good player who at
the moment is my bookies favourite to win this game, even at this
early stage.

Turkey: Made a balls of this set of moves. Presumably feared Austria
switching to Russia's side. Even if you expect F Sev to move (which
was a plausible alternative), Rum is the wrong army to want to put
into Sev anyway. So why not take a chance that Austria might actually
be on your side at no cost! NOW I expect Austria to have second
thoughts and may well side with Russia, if he expects Russia to pick
up on this and supports him into Bulgaria like he should have done
last turn.

Russia: He just told Austria he was going to support Ser-Bul so why
did he not do it? A Rum S F Sev is a dud order. That support is ALWAYS
going to be cut. Austria may have flipped to his side this turn
because of Turkey's lack of support but now Austria probably doesn't
trust Russia either. Also, I have no idea what message his fleet in
GoB was intended to be.

Italy: Another crazy move. He should have left Tunis alone for the
Spring because he is guaranteed to get it but would know whether it
was safe to take it with the army or fleet (though almost certainly he
could not afford to have his army over there.) Now he will lose Venice
this turn and will shortly be squeezed by yellow, red and light blue
fleets. Hmm... after thinking a little more, maybe it's better to give
up Venice (he didn't know Austria was coming), put the army in Tunis
and use the fleet to cover the TYS in the Fall?

Very perceptive comments, especially on Austria and his potential swap to be pro-Russia.

Surprised that he (as well as some others) did not understand Russia's F Sev order of convoy Arm-Cly - I thought that was pretty clear that he was signaling Turkey to remove his army in Armenia.

[regoarrarr]

F1902 moves in

Austria: Army Serbia -> Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Trieste -> Venice. (*bounce*)
Austria: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Army Serbia -> Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Tyrolia SUPPORT Army Trieste -> Venice. (*cut*)
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Russian Army Rumania.

England: Army Finland -> Sweden.
England: Fleet Norway SUPPORT Army Finland -> Sweden.
England: Fleet North Sea -> Denmark. (*bounce*)
England: Fleet Norwegian Sea -> North Sea. (*bounce*)

France: Army Burgundy SUPPORT Austrian Army Tyrolia -> Munich. (*void*)
France: Army Marseilles -> Gulf of Lyon -> Tuscany.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Western Mediterranean.
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon CONVOY Army Marseilles -> Tuscany.
France: Army Paris SUPPORT Army Burgundy.

Germany: Army Holland -> Ruhr.
Germany: Army Belgium SUPPORT French Army Burgundy.
Germany: Fleet Sweden -> Denmark. (*bounce, dislodged*)
Germany: Fleet Baltic Sea -> Denmark. (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Munich -> Tyrolia. (*bounce*)

Italy: Army Tunis HOLD.
Italy: Army Venice HOLD.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Naples.

Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Russia: Army Rumania SUPPORT Fleet Sevastopol.
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Rumania. (*cut*)
Russia: Fleet Gulf of Bothnia -> St Petersburg (south coast).
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Fleet Sevastopol.

Turkey: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Austrian Army Serbia -> Rumania. (*void, dislodged*)
Turkey: Army Armenia -> Sevastopol. (*bounce*)
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Armenia -> Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Austrian Fleet Greece -> Ionian Sea. (*void*)

[regoarrarr]

Austria chose to go in with the cuttable support of A Tyl, and got burned by it. But, he did pick up Bulgaria, but the problem is that Italy got a build from Tunis (though he's of course under severe pressure from France now too)

[regoarrarr]

The following units were dislodged:

The German Fleet in Sweden can retreat to Gulf of Bothnia or Skagerrak.
The Turkish Army in Bulgaria can retreat to Constantinople.

This might be a good time for Germany to DISBAND his retreating fleet, so he can rebuild it (as a fleet or an army) in Kiel.

I got a few questions from folks on the mechanics of this during this phase. Russia wanted to know about it. I think that he wanted to disband his northern fleet and rebuild it as an army (can't do it). But when a unit is dislodged, as Germany's fleet was, then it is an option to disband and rebuild

[Mardoc]

I invite correction - but it appears that despite Germany swapping from allying with Austria to with Italy, Italy's still looking pretty doomed. A French army in Tuscany and two French fleets to contend with is a very tough thing to handle on top of what Austria can throw at him.

Meanwhile, Austria still had a good year by his decision to swap to ally with Russia, England has a successful year, and everyone else held steady.

If England wants Denmark next year, I don't see how Germany could stop him. Moving fleets something like LVP -> North sea, North Sea -> Hel, Norway -> Ska would let him hit Denmark with the Sweden army and three supports in Fall. Even if Germany bounces one of those Spring moves, I still don't see how he can get more than 2 units to defend Denmark. And that assumes the Russian fleet doesn't get involved.

[regoarrarr]

Thoughts from Russia

Pretty happy with how F1902 turned out. Looks like I can get some
cooperation going with Austria, and Germany ought to move their fleets
west to meet the France/England threat, so I might even be able to
advance up north. Not sure what Italy is doing though. Of course, if
Austria continues its opportunism and kicks me out of Rumania I have a
problem.

[regoarrarr]

Retreats are in

Retreat results for Fall of 1902. (rbnopress01.006)

Germany: Fleet Sweden -> Skagerrak.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria DISBAND.

Ownership of supply centers:

Austria: Budapest, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Trieste, Vienna.
England: Edinburgh, Liverpool, London, Norway, Sweden.
France: Brest, Marseilles, Paris, Portugal, Spain.
Germany: Belgium, Berlin, Denmark, Holland, Kiel, Munich.
Italy: Naples, Rome, Tunis, Venice.
Russia: Moscow, Rumania, Sevastopol, St Petersburg, Warsaw.
Turkey: Ankara, Constantinople, Smyrna.

Austria: 6 Supply centers, 5 Units: Builds 1 unit.
England: 5 Supply centers, 4 Units: Builds 1 unit.
France: 5 Supply centers, 5 Units: Builds 0 units.
Germany: 6 Supply centers, 5 Units: Builds 1 unit.
Italy: 4 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 1 unit.
Russia: 5 Supply centers, 5 Units: Builds 0 units.
Turkey: 3 Supply centers, 3 Units: Builds 0 units.

Mistake by Turkey to disband - no reason to do so - let them (whoever "they" are) think that you might keep that army. You can always remove it in the fall. Not to mention there are several other units that would be better to remove IMO...

As for Germany, I still think I'd have disbanded but a fleet in Skagerrak is a good place to have one and I didn't notice that he still has a build anyways so maybe that was a good move