[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: The Honorable French

[scooter]

More stuff. Mardoc asked me two questions via chat, and I figure I'll explain them and a few more things here. He asked what the purpose of Wes-Lyo and Lvp-Nao was. Wes-Lyo was paranoia over Italy. If Italy ordered Tys-Lyo, I would be in a lot of trouble. I'd have to back off the attack after committing, and it would be an all-around disaster. So that was a necessity. The other thing was I did not want my F just sitting in Lvp (that's why I wanted MOlach to disband his army), so it was either Lvp-Iri or Lvp-Nao. Lvp-Nao is more flexible, so I went with that. It also sets me up for an eventual push into the northern waters.

Finally, I knew Germany was going to order Nwy-Nwg because I encouraged it pretty heavily. Basically, Germany planned to move Hel-Nth with Den + Eng support and order Nwy-Nwg which in theory would mean he'd get both barring an Edi-Nwg order. That was good because I wanted to deny him North Sea. The problem was he was considering Hel-Nth with Nwy/Den support late, but I discouraged that. Basically, the plan he wanted was this:

1) I order Lvp-Cly and support myself into London.
2) He'd double-support himself into Nth
3) In the fall, I use Clyde to guarantee him Edi from Nth.

I didn't like this as I couldn't prevent him from getting into Nth. So I sold it as I didn't want a fleet in Clyde as it was awkward and FOREVER away from Italy, which actually would be 100% true if I wasn't stabbing. Also mentioned it left me really vulnerable to Italy shenanigans if he vassal'd to Turkey, which was also true. Also, at this point I was slightly unhappy by how much work I had to do to help him as a result of him HAVING to get a center the previous year, though my decision was made so that probably clouded things a bit. But yeah, so the goal was to keep him out of Nth, as that greatly increased my buffer zone for this upcoming year. Molach has basically said his units are at my disposal, so that's pretty huge. I'll have to be cautious of a counter-stab by Molach though, he literally has nothing to lose. I was straight with him though and promised him exactly what I would deliver and nothing more - I said he would live longer than Germany. So we'll see. Also, just got this from Bigger:

nice stab. although im curious why you didn't just agree to the CLY move if you were going to stab me anyway. that fleet might be in STP right now

game on, I guess. you certainly have the upper hand

Glad to know he didn't take it personally . I enjoyed chatting with him and Waterbat and felt kinda bad, but it's part of the game, and I don't doubt he's considered doing the same to me. Though I don't quite understand him because if I had ordered Lvp-Cly he would've used Nwy as support rather than Nor-Stp - or at least that's what he told me. Also, I don't want him taking a Russian center anyways as him getting a build would be really bad! So it's fine.

[scooter]

Finally, I will say this situation is not 100% perfect for me. There's a scenario or two where I walk away with 0 gains against Germany. That would suck. It would have been MUCH better had they gone with Berlin-Prussia. Should have pushed harder, but I didn't want to push TOO hard and tip them off. We'll see. He'll have to get quite lucky to prevent a center from me though. If I keep up with TT, Austria, and Russia I should be good.

[Gaspar]

Definitely a guessing game but I think you're in about as good a position as can be expected. In a worst case, Bigger could lose as many as 3 centers this turn. In a best case, he loses nothing. But as we said in chat FG win is nearly impossible and the game is certainly much spicier. I don't like Bigger's position because he's already pissed off Rowain. Basically leaves him with Molach and TT as partner options and Molach's neutered and TT has his own problems.



Also, reasonable chance that the sum of this is that Austria ends up dead this year, which will certainly change the calculus particularly I'd think it would strongly tempt Mattimeo against Rowain.

[Jkaen]

Oh, meant to say thanks for the interesting reporting, and yes I just skip chat logs so keeping things summarised is much better

[scooter]

WOW. I have no other words right now, check back later.

[scooter]

Alright, quick comments.

1) Cannot say I expected 2 centers. I got TT to promise no Tyrolia cut, but I had no such promise from Tatan. I didn't even talk to Tatan - I was afraid of putting any ideas in his head . So my hope was just to guarantee Munich and maybe sneak into Nth if I was lucky. I secured the double-supports from Molach first. I then lobbied to TT to leave Tyrolia alone - he agreed - more on Italy in a minute. So I forced into Munich which was guaranteed barring a Tyrolia cut. I then had nothing to do with Belgium. I suspected he might try to cover Kiel, so I ordered Bel-Hol just because Belgium had nothing better to do. The result was a very light blue map:



2) Bigger now has THREE disbands he must order. I think Nwg and Hel are the no-brainers. His other decision will likely be from A Swe, F Den, or A Boh. I think A Boh is the least likely even though it's really awkwardly out of position. Sweden is probably most likely, though as Gaspar pointed out to me, it's sickening the Rowain might take both Norway and Sweden with no fleets whatsoever .

3) Got bounced in Nth. Fine by me. I was hoping for 1 center and control of Nth. I think this is definitely better, especially considering I'll just take Nth next year.

4) Back to Russia - Rowain did tell me he was going to cover Stp with Fin because he didn't want to have to cover Stp with Mos and make it too tempting for Turkey. I'm not sure if he meant to lie to me or if he just changed his mind..? Not sure what happened there, but boy did he hit the jackpot. He took Sev, but he also helped T into Trieste so it sure wasn't a stab. Sigh. Juggernaut is becoming a problem.

5) Italy. The Lyo-Tys was a change about an hour before the deadline. When chatting with Twinkletoes a couple turns ago, I told him I wanted to help him, but since I couldn't move into Tunis without capturing, I said the only way I could thing would be if he moved into Tunis and I moved into Tys and we clogged up the seas that way and stalemated Mattimeo. I told him I knew he wouldn't like that, but that was my only idea. He said "not going to happen" and I understood. Well then he sent me this email an hour or so before the deadline with the subject line "If you are still up":

I need you.

Please move your fleet into TYS - I will need the back up next turn as I think Austria will get divided up by the juggernaut!

TT

Alright then. I replied immediately and confirmed that I would do so, then logged onto chat and we had a very brief chat (I think we were both on phones so that's why it's a tad choppy)

scooter: Got your email
Twinkletoes: gdgd
scooter: Just to confirm, you for sure want lyo-tys?
I've been hoping rt would stab each other but guess not :/
Twinkletoes: I think its a full on juggernaut
scooter: Yeah. I think we can hold the waters if we do it right.
Twinkletoes: I am losing ION this turn, but we can stop him going any further
You are the only one I can trust and the only one who really needs me
I may be able to save Austria if I'm very lucky, but prob not
scooter: Yeah. I know it's probably a tad nerve wracking to have me in tys but believe me, I'd rather pass on your centers than let Mattimeo in.
Twinkletoes: I know
scooter: You have any idea what vie is doing?
Twinkletoes: Plan now may be to support me into Tri
with the fleet
scooter: I'm afraid of vie-tyr screwing me even if it makes no sense
Ok
Twinkletoes: waiting for confirmation on that
otherwise I think he will hold
scooter: Ok. Yeah vie-tyr makes no sense but many of his moves have been confusing so it's hard to predict
Twinkletoes: yeah
I tell you now though, Russia will have to go out of his way to help Turkey into Tri, most likely screwing himself out of Vie
so if that happens. it must be a juggernaut
too many times they have cooperated
scooter: Yeah. They're def together, I've just been hoping it was temporary
Twinkletoes: Doesn't look like it
anyway, time for bed for me - see you on the other side of the fall!
scooter: Yep, ttyl!

Underlined portions are key. The first two about why this happened. The last one turned out to be a very ominous prediction, though Rowain's move makes more sense in the context of a Sev handover.

So that's where I stand. I've got a few options for my 2 builds. I haven't decided which route I'm going on that quite yet.

[Gaspar]

Said it in chat but I'll say it here again - amazingly well played.

I'd guess G disbands A Swe but I'd definitely disband A Boh in his shoes. I guess if he hangs on to A Swe it at least lessens the chances of him vassalizing to R. RT is really going to be a pain with 2 of the 3 central powers down/crippled. Definitely need TT to stalemate T as best as possible and hope Rowain's happy picking the dessicated remains of Bigger and not pushing hard to England/pushing hard with Turkey.

I don't think anyone is getting a solo here, at least.

[scooter]

So I need to start thinking longterm. Rowain said he's not real interested in a 3-way draw and feels this game deserves a proper conclusion. I agree. His thinking is basically eliminate G + I, then have a showdown between myself, him, and Turkey. I'm generally OK with this, the question is how I set myself up the best. And do I risk trying to induce a T stab on R before then?

I have one key leverage right now that's really impacting the game. Since Italy let me into Tys, I can sit there forever helping Italy stalemate Turkey for minimal investment (1 fleet) while I go conquer Germany. If I played this properly, this would mean Turkey is stalled while I'm still expanding. T's only expansion options are Italy or Russia right now. Russia requires a stab, Italy requires my cooperation. I THINK I could leverage that power over him into forcing a stab on Russia, which would improve my odds of solo'ing. However, the risk there is that it would motivate Russia to help Germany. Russia helps Germany and England sees the window and stabs, and I have a mess in the north. While talking to Rowain, he more or less kindly threated to help Germany if I bottled up T too much, which fits with this pretty well.

So, I have two build then, but I could use something at all 3 centers. So each one:

Brest - I only have 2 fleets in the north, and I'd like a 3rd. It does depend a lot on how much G disbands, but the main thing is I don't want to move into Nth and then beg E to stab me. I'd like to contain E just a bit and not make it tempting to him. I'll definitely uphold my end of the deal and let him outlive Germany if he continues to help, but it's not impossible for him to get a better deal elsewhere.

Paris - If he leaves Hel and just disbands everything touching Russia, this might be relatively important. As of right now he could force me out of Hol with Hel, and/or his Ruh army could cause trouble and slip into Bel or Bur if I'm not careful. If I build Paris, I'm fine.

Marseilles - I have just 1 fleet down here, Turkey has 3. I also don't want to tempt Italy to stab, although my presence in Tys should be motivation enough. I also don't want Russia to see me as endlessly stalemating and start to help Germany to counteract it. However, ignoring Mar has the potential benefit of encouraging Mattimeo to stab Russia. Also, if Italy stabs me by ordering Apu-Rom and Tun-Wes in the spring, I'm pretty screwed and definitely losing a center.

So which route do I go here? Gaspar, any opinions? My feeling is that Paris is the most necessary build. Brest will be helpful before Marseilles, but if it encourages Russia to help Germany OR Italy gets cute and orders Tun-Wes, I'm in trouble. So it's hard for me to ignore Marseilles as tempting as it would be. Thoughts?

[T-hawk]

<GIANT DIABOLICAL STAB OF GERMANY>

So much for The Honorable French

[scooter]

So much for The Honorable French

It's Diplomacy - even the thread titles are lies.