[SPOILERS] The Kaiser Strikes back! A Bigger Germany is better

[Bigger]

man, perhaps I should be ded-lurking you the rest of the game .

As for why I'm not attacking France: I would prefer to do so, however I really can't. I need at least one ally in the region I can trust. I do trust Tatan (and to a smaller extent TT), but neither could help me in the face of a combined attack. I really do not trust Rowain at all - would be too worried about him backstabbing me just for the chaos effect. I do think I could trust Tasunke to be loyal, however I don't trust him to be reliable at all - there's a very good chance he would just not submit his moves at a critical time and screw me. So I really have to play with Scooter. And now that the game's developed a bit - honestly I find myself trusting Scooter more and more, which is a good sign. Unless one of us makes a stupid mistake and leaves himself open for a stab, we've got a decent chance of pushing for a 2 way draw (or 3 way w/ Austria or Turkey).

Anyway, regarding your worst case, above (and btw, I see no benefit for moving A MUN to RUh other than antagonizing Scooter): How do I lose a fleet? I don't see myself losing a core in that example - Tas can only reach DEN w/ the NTH nav, and I've protected DEN w/ an army. He can bounce (even w/ scooters support), but that leaves me with a ship in SKA, a ship in HEL (from kie in fall), and scooter has a ship in ENG and IRI at least. Or, scooter has taken a chance and gone BRE>Eng and MAO>iri in the spring, allowing him to take a stab at lvl in the fall.

It is slow, but safe.

What do you think about this? Scooter's in chat I'm going to bring it up, but-

FBER-BAL, FDEN-SKa. then in the fall I can support myself into Swe, stealing a core from Rowain (2 if we get turkey and austria to play along). Next year, I can use sweden to support myself into NOR, and build a 3rd ship in KIE. as long as Im stabbing Rowain, I can move my MUN army (probably in the fall, holding in the spring) into SIL, so I can support Tatan into GAL, allowing us to threaten WAR next year.

The downside: slows down the england attack a bit, but not really that much (stealing norway will be almost as good as an english core, and it doesnt seem like we'll get one in 1902 regardless). also, if I shut down rowain before tasunke and have sweden and norway, scooter will likely want an extra English core (we agreed early on him getting BEL and LVP, me getting LON and EDI), and honestly - I'll have to admit thats fair.
also, Rowain is playing nice so far, so it'll be a tad bit mean .

[waterbat]

sweet - i know we chatted a bit, but agree with everything here. except for the ded-lurking part - this baby is your ship!

we lose a fleet if he attacks into ska with support, which seems like an odd move, but that seems to be my lot this game - identify odd moves and then later find out that they are in fact illegal

[Bigger]

chat with scooter, I'll post the Rowain chat when we're done:

More ***9660;
You have invited water to this chat.
This is now a group chat. Add another person.
scooter scooter has joined.
water bat has joined.
scooter: oh hey waterbat. didn't know you had a chat account.
me: im pretty sure he's afk, but I invited him anyway
scooter: ah ok
me: so, Im quite pleased that Rowain complied with my "suggestion" not to build in STP

scooter: i saw that! very nice.
turkey built 2 fleets. that'll terrify russia and italy
me: yeah
well the ANK fleet is going to take BAL, but the other 2 will go out into the med to defend against Italy
thats what mattimeo has told me anyway
scooter: makes sense. sure looks like AT to me
Sent at 1:30 PM on Tuesday
me: ok, so I need help w/ our moves.. not sure if our deadline is tonight or not, but might as well prepare
Sent at 1:32 PM on Tuesday
me: first, if you moved into ENG and IRI w/o support, assuming you got lucky and he didn't bounce you, what could you do that would be much better than just moving into IRI in the fall? not likely you could take LVL, as his army can just bounce you (not likely to do much else)
Sent at 1:34 PM on Tuesday
me: even if you wanted to move it to WAL, for a support from ENG to LON, might as well do that in the fall, move into WAL next spring, then take LON next Fall.. or am I missing something?
Sent at 1:35 PM on Tuesday
scooter: sorry, multitasking here as apparently the propoganda thread for the ISDG is kicking off and I'm contributing a minor piece hah. ok, pulling up the map now
me: isdg?
scooter: er, inter-site demogame. sorry
me: ah, well there's no rush, this game will be finished before that one starts =)
scooter: haha. ok, yeah england has us ina reall awkward spot here
*really
ok, for my fleets, i don't think it's worth it attempting bre-eng without support
me: well thats why I'm thinking slow and steady here, we cant take a core in 1902 prob, but we can set ourselves up nicely for 1903
scooter: so i'll prob support myself into eng. that's the easy part
me: ok
scooter: yeah that's my thought too
me: then support me into NTH in fall, and move from mao to IRI safely?
scooter: set ourselves up for a big 1903
something like that, though i'm not 100% sure we can actually guarantee Nth this year, trying to figure that out now
me: no, waterbat doesn't think it will happen either
scooter: because ok, berlin can move into bal or kiel
me: I was thinking of an alternate plan for me
scooter: either way it can at best get into hel, ska, or den in the fall
me: yeah likely I would end up in SKA after a bounce and HEL going into 1903, which isn't too bad, we have IRI, ENG, SKA, and HEL
scooter: we could potentially get rowain in to screw with nwy
me: id prob move my army into DEN to protect it
scooter: but chances are he won't want to contribute to a quick english death
me: well this is what I was thinking instead, tell me what you think
scooter: ok
me: w/ my 2 fleets, in spring, move DEN-SKA, and BER-BAL
since Rowain has been nice enough not to build in STP, I can support myself into SWE in the fall, picking up a 3rd core (fleet in KIE) - since im not likely to take the NTH this year anyway
scooter: oh
might also get rowain to take nwy
thereby giving you +1 and tasunke -1
helps us a ton
me: then spring 1903 I can support myself into norway,
scooter: and i'll get a +1 from spa
me: oh
yes
scooter: if rowain orders mos-stp he can take nwy
but he cannot hold sweden
me: ah
scooter: so we basically offer him a swap
me: I see
scooter: he can break even and we get what we want
the potential snag is tasunke getting into nth in the spring
and being able to support nwy
me: yes, he might take that over me pressuring him, and him being dependent on a tasunke support to hold sweden
scooter: yeah
me: Tasunke's not really reliable for anyone right now, lol
scooter: no kidding
this disappearance is case & point why i didnt want to work with him at all
me: yeah
me too
Sent at 1:46 PM on Tuesday
me: there's a good chance Rowain moves that MOS army north even if I don't say anything to him, he's kind of bottle in the south and its not likely to play a part there
scooter: if he does that, then yeah just play it simple and take sweden
oh
wait
sorry, thought you said south
so nvm that.
ok, i'm betting he orders lon-eng for one. then edi-nth with nwy support
so he probably gets into Nth and not much we can do about that
me: well, should I reach out and encourage him to move north, or just say nothing and see what he does? If he holds or tries to go south from Moscow, I take a core from Rowain but have 3 ships up there, if he moves to STP I offer Rowain a switch and steal a core from tasunke?
honestly, I think the most likely moves for tasunke are - ALL UNITS HOLD, I wouldnt be surprised if he's checked out
scooter: i'd say try to figure out what he's doing with moscow
me: ok
scooter: gotta think he's pretty concerned about the south
something like sev-arm is pretty likely from him
i'd think
me: yeah
scooter: so something like sev-arm, mos-seve, ukr-rum, rum-bla is plausible
just to guess
me: he could do that, or he could support rum from UKR and SEV, fearing AT cooperation to push him out of RUM
can a UKR army support a fleet on RUM? it can, can't it? (not sure)
scooter: yeah it can
it just can't support rum-bla
or any illegal fleet move
me: right
scooter: but it coudl support a defense
he's goign to want sev empty in the fall
he badly needs a F build there or something
though i'm not sure he gains any cneters
centers
maybe he gets one disbanded
me: ok, so I'll move FDen-SKA, FBER-BAL, AKIE-DEN, prob hold the other 2
and probe Rowain in the mean time
I assume you move APOR-SPA, what are you doing w/ that paris army?
scooter: right, wanted to talk about that too
i think it'd be really good if we try to avoid moving into bur and ruh
at the very least, let's not make it tempting for each other. a stab at this point is dumb, but trying to keep bur and ruh empty for now would make it impossible
me: sounds good to me.
scooter: you think thats plausible or no?
me: yes
I would prefer the same
scooter: ok. in that case i'll prob move it to pic
that way a convoy is available to me even if i don't take it
me: ok cool
scooter: gives tasunke more to defend against
me: my HOL and MUN armies will be holding
scooter: ok. yeah i'll hold belgium
Sent at 1:58 PM on Tuesday
water: hey guys
scooter: ok, so are we set on what we'll do this spring? for this spring anyways, i'll support myself into ENG. you'll move Fs into ska and bal (and A to cover Den), and we'll see what the english and russian moves are to dictate the fall.
hey waterbat.
me: hey there, lol
scooter: we've had some tactical discussion. if you want to catch up and share your thoughts that'd be great
water: wow, you've been at this a while, have my sounds off and 10000 windows open in chrome so didnt see the notificaiton
ok reading now - ive been worried about our position tactically
me: yeah that sounds good. if it works out right we'll both be able to build a 3rd ship (if we need it) and dismantle tasunke fairly quickly in 1903
yeah we both decided you were prob right about the NTH waterbat, so we went with the alternate plan I suggested in my thread
scooter: rowain just message'd me. i can try to get feelers on moscow and all that
me: cool
Sent at 2:03 PM on Tuesday
water: i was promoting the swap NOR with SWE for some time in our thread - but we havent brought it up to Rowain
scooter: ok. yeah i like that idea
water: Molach is taking over for Tasunke - including diplo
scooter: for sure?
me: ah, figures
water: depends on if Tasunke gets back - but that's how i took it
so maybe 1 turn of no diplo - if Tasunke doesnt show, Molach's got it
PM from Mardoc semi-confirmed it
anyway - ENGLAND can screw with our plans up both
up north
by attacking into SKA
our support for the NWY swap gets broken
and our DEN army can't move into sweden without support
because rowain would have bounced
now.. we can convoy from BER (if we move our army north from MUN)
and support from DEN
scooter: yeah that's my concern - the inevitable english fleet in Nth
water: an attack into SKA initially seemed overreaching
but i dont see how we can do much about it
i tried some scenarios with F BER -> KIE
scooter: well, ska-swe with bal support takes swe and that's not defendable
water: but its so slow
scooter: though it takes a F out of ska
water: oh! no doubt - we CAN take SWE without an issue
scooter: and i think a fall move of nth-ska would be a mistake by england
with me in the channel especailly
water: it seems like it would be
scooter: *especially
water: but... i couldnt tactically refute it - i wasnt concentrating too much on how much he would lose to you
Sent at 2:14 PM on Tuesday
me: well
if Rowain does move MOS -STP (and that seems more likely to me than to scooter) then we can always get him to help, I take swe he gets nor
scooter: actually
water: just afraid of encouraging MOS-STP
scooter: could just ask him for support into norway in exchange for not taking sweden
water: if he does form a bond with Molach/Tasunke
well yes, scooter - we can strongarm him
especially if we move MUN->BER
that's an additional convoy
i.e. our message coule be: either swap NWY with us, or we take SWE outright
scooter: one other thing. if he doesn't move north, tasunke could walk into stp
me: MUN-SIL would be more threatening than MUN-BER
scooter: i'm actually a tad concerned about that
if he DOES move south, nor-stp is undefendable
water: yeah NOR->STP seems like a good move in the fall
grab a quick center
scooter: tend to think a south move is unlikely for that reason. a hold is more likely
if tasunke gets a build this year, that's bad.
he may even try it this turn
which would mean even if he tries to move north, he can't
actually... nwy-stp and lon support edi-nth is probably englands best moves
water: would a english NWY->STP be accompanied by a NTH ->NWY in the spring?
scooter: if they take stp, they cannot lose it in the fall. it's not possible
possibly
though that would be risky-ish
man. wish tasunke was doing orders for sure, then he may not recognize nwy-stp
but molach might
water: i think its ok for us strategically
beats him and rowain cooperating
me: I agree
scooter: true
just really don't need a +1 for england this year
that'd be not good
water: well, if he does the move in spring
me: and regardless, we both get an extra fleet build, and a crippled russia can't save his ass, so even if (worst case) he gets an extra build we'll have strength in numbers
and I don't think thats likely anyway
scooter: yeah true
water: if he does the move in spring - we definitely will ge rowain's help against NWY
so he won't gain a build
UNLESS he attacks out into SKA
which means you get free reign down there to do what you want
Sent at 2:23 PM on Tuesday
water: so many possibilities there
hard to say what molunke will do
Sent at 2:25 PM on Tuesday
me: ok, so mardoc says deadline is extended another day, until 31 hours from now
water: i think he extended the build phase and this phase is normal
scooter: yeah this is normal
48 hours
water: the build phase just pushed us back 24
scooter: right. but spring/fall will always be 48, and we just started spring
water: yep
me: k
water: i wonder if T is going to support A into RUM
things could get interesting down there
me: i haven't talked to either in a few days.. I only ever see you 2 and Rowain on chat :/
scooter: yeah. i sorta took a couple days break given the extensoins
water: even if it fails, they could do it again in the fall
with BLA support too
Sent at 2:31 PM on Tuesday
water: i didnt see above - scooter are you moving BRE->ENG with MAO support?
scooter: that's the plan
water: and por->SPA in spring?
scooter: would be awesome to move bre-eng and mao-iri
just not sure it's worth it
yeah
water: it be nice to pull off a POR->MAO->IRI->LVP convoy
me: lol
too fancy and dangerous
water: you could set it up without issue, but its not like he's not going to see it coming
Sent at 2:34 PM on Tuesday
water: any word from rowain yet, scooter?
or bigger, if you've reached out as well
me: im talking to him, but being very careful.. nothing really informative
water: understood
scooter: he's basically said he doens't fear nwy-stp
which i think is nuts
water: agreed
me: in hindsight, he really should have built a fleet in STP (north side)
lol
but Im not sure what else he can do w/ that MOS army than march north
ah well, if he does march north I'll cut him in, if not no need
water: agreed - wait until spring moves are in
and see what shakes out
scooter: yeah
Sent at 2:42 PM on Tuesday

[Bigger]

well Rowain went offline, so the convo ended. honestly I'm getting tired and can't think about it much today, will reexamine tomorrow, with your input. Getting Rowain involved would avoid a nasty BER-BAL bounce.

I'd be willing to negotiate a eng split with Rowain that involves him getting NOR and SWE (not this turn, Id need one for 1902 then he could retake), but I wanted him to say it. under that scenario I would get ENG and EDI, scooter LVP and BEL, and most likely once england was dead I'd turn my fleet back on scandanavia <G>. Of course thats more promising with a strong AT alliance hehe, which makes it easier for me to retake scandanavia.

Rowain: Hi my german neighbour
Sent at 2:04 PM on Tuesday
me: hello
Rowain: Anger over WW13 gone?
me: lol
I've calmed down enough not to be bitter, prob not enough to respond to that lurker thread yet
its all good, sounds like you had some kind of vendetta against zak (wanted him dead village or wolf) and I just had the bad luck of having Zak on my team... so I'm not taking it personally
Sent at 2:06 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: not vendetta just a shortening of the day and the goal to take him with me
Sent at 2:08 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: Apperently I saw me more in danger as the general consensus is I were
me: well, you weren't going down.. you didn't know I had scanned you, and anyway I had no way of revealing that info to the village, so i wouldnt have on day 3.. if you keep quiet, prob Injera lynches day 3, and short and fat wolves have a 50/50 shot, I think .
I don't think you were in danger at all. in fact I knew your role and didn't see how I was ever going to get you lynched, you were coming off as very villagerish to me
Rowain: well my plan was to take zak with me and leave the village clueless after 2 useless days
me: yeah
Rowain: you should have never drawn attention your way
me: if zak actually was the alpha (and I was the zeta) I would have let you.. but I was convinced you had actually scanned me, and would finger me the next day (or you would finger me whether you had scanned me or not)..
I didn't want the village to know there had been a recruit, i was actually trying to get myself lynched before zak, figuring when I rolled alpha he would have a good chance of surviving
Rowain: zak was unsaveable after the silverblood claim
me: I actually expected them to follow me onto thestick day 4, that was a miscalculation :/
well
teh funny thing is, the reason was because of Lewwyns vague less than half vanillas claim.. no one figured there could be another non-vanilla. But it turns out there was, Serdoa - lol.
Sent at 2:12 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: there were ebven 3 with the 2 masons too
me: yeah
well the meiz night-kill didn't help me and Zak. I knew there were masons but didn't know it would be village info day 4 :/
Rowain: Nobody knew tat the msons were vanilla villagers in Lewwyns mind
me: yeah
lol
Sent at 2:15 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: It was a wonder that MNG joined your side.
me: I think I made a pretty good case <g>
I came pretty close to winning on the last day.. Tasunke told me if he was alive last day (if I had killed Sareln instead) he would have self-voted
Rowain: But it was already proven that you lied. you couldn't have scnned Sareln since you killed thatnight.
me: although a better plan would have been if I had shut up during the night, killed Sareln and told the village "shoot, I thought he was the wolf, I guess its Injera"
yes, but that was before I outted myself as wolf, that can be forgiven
Rowain: You were lucky that thestick didn't realy defend since he thought you were a given lynch
me: hehe
funny thing is, I was guessing w/ the stick.. pretty educated guess, and I nailed it. But by the time of the lynch he had convinced me I was wrong, I thought I was railroading MNG into a mislynch
which would have been hilarious, i was a little sad when it turned out I was right
Rowain: Anyway I would have hated to be village in that game.
me: yeah no kidding
Rowain: lynching 4 wolves in arow making no obvious mistakes and still having no chance to win
me: they needed luck. it could have been runaway village if they got the right luck (we killed each other w/ night-kills, or doubled up more than the 1 time we did) - but they just didnt get the luck they needed
Rowain: they had already luck. The 2 silvers did their job early on. 1 slleeper lynched. wolves fighting and lynching each other
me: yes, they got plenty of luck, but not enough, hehe
there probably should have been a 3rd silverblood, woulda been more helpful to the village than the masons
Rowain: Anyway lets look forward to WW14 and come to business here
Any contact already with the new goverment of England?
me: yeah
im sick of multiple wolf packs tho, I hope thats ditched
no im not even sure he'll submit moves
Rowain: He did update Englands thread
me: ah
Rowain: yesterday that is
me: I wonder if it was "so I slept through the build deadline, looks like I got a ship built for me, yay"
Rowain: No Molach did submit the build order
me: I know
was molach on his team? I thought he just got drafted as a temporary (but maybe permanent) replacement?
gj picking up the build in the south.. scary w/ 6 cores
Sent at 2:26 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: He was his teammate.
Well we will see how many of them are left come winter
me: oh, I didn't realize they were teammates
ok
Rowain: Any plans fromyour side to take SWE?
me: well
honestly I wanted to build that fleet in KIE - you can guess where it was supposed to go
but the NTH bounce was unexpected, and backed me up
Sent at 2:29 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: Thats why moving the Fleet into HOL instead of DEn is better at leat if you don't plan to deny Russia Sweden
me: if my plan was to deny you, I could have easily done it in 1901 :P
If I thought tasunke was moving into NTH, I would have moved to ska.. but he convinced me he was bouncing ENG again :/
Rowain: Oh so he did do Diplo
me: yeah, the only chat I've had with tasunke.. that was last thursday, i think
about 5 days ago, lol
Sent at 2:33 PM on Tuesday
me: so I haven't talked to Tatan, but I'm assuming yall will end up bouncing in GAL? I'm holding my MUN army, so won't be getting involved
Rowain: I have not talked with Tatan either but I guess some bouncing is bound to happen . Sadly i don't see any new cnter on the horizont
me: yeah its gonna be tough for 1902, scooter may be the only one picking anything up :/
(SPA, obv)
Rowain: He has at last SPA secure. And if you find Russia with 6 centers already scary ...
me: heh, i was being glib.. I've played Russia before I know its limitations
unless Turkey is foolish enough to ally w/ you and push west, and you both somehow trust each other, Russia isn't too scary
Rowain: Well the Fleet in ANK is a clear sign how much Turkey is onmy side
me: yeah
lol
Sent at 2:39 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: So since i'm a nosy person what are our planned moves. Especially with your Armies
me: I'll tell you mine if you tell me yours :P
Rowain: Oh mine are simple Hold RU bounce GAL and hope the Turk isn't coming for me.
Not really any offensive actions available for me
me: so you're supporting RUM from UKR and Sev?
Rowain: Quid pro quo.
me: what about the MOS then, it just holds?
MUN is holding, in case Italy or Austria get frisky
or france, even
or you, even
Rowain: I'm still waiting for you answers
me: my armies are holding
KIE will either hold or move into DEN, not sure, the other 2 hold for sure
Rowain: How will you bring your fleet into play then?
me: what about your MOS army?
Rowain: BER is in an awfull place right now
me: well
Rowain: at leat for attacking England
me: yes, well, it was the only open spot
FDen-SKA, FBER-KIE
Rowain: i know. So shall we bounce in BAL
me: setting up for 1903
Sent at 2:49 PM on Tuesday
me: that would be bad, I'd rather get him out of BER
Rowain: Or would you prefer support DEN-SKA
me: yes that would be useful, just in case!
Rowain: So that in the end there are a Fleet in SKA, in BAL and an Army in DEN righ arundthe poor russianfleet in SWE
me: hmm, I completely forgot an army can move from DEN to SWE until you just said that
lol
Sent at 2:52 PM on Tuesday
Rowain: Anyway I knew that I might lose SWE if I don't build in STP
but that was a risk I was willing to take
Sent at 2:53 PM on Tuesday
me: well, you certainly have shown yourself willing to work with me so far... perhaps because you fear an AT alliance, but I'll take it
Sent at 2:56 PM on Tuesday
me: I would like a core this year, for help west of Norway.. I'd just assume it come from Tasunke, who hasn't shown himself to be reliable.. maybe we can work togethor on that?
Rowain: Anyway I won't bounce you in BAL but I would prefer to see the fleet from BER in KIE
To get you into NWY?
me: either that, or we swap (I take swe, you go into NOR so you don't lose a core... )
Rowain: Might be possible but I don't know what I will really do with MOS. Alot depends what I hear from Turkey & Austria.
me: ah
Sent at 3:00 PM on Tuesday
me: well the way I see it you only ahve 2 choices, if you plan to get agressive against Turkey, you move the SEV army south and replace it would the MOS army.. otherwise no reason not to move the MOS army north, no?
Rowain: There are more possibilities
depends also what I believe my neighbours there will be doing
me: yes, MOS- LVN, but that would be odd and somewhat threatening to me hehe
Rowain: Maybe get the fleet out of RUM and move the Army from UKR into it and MOS-UKR
Or move WAR-SIL and MOS-WAr
or perhaps get UKR into GAL and move MOS into UKR
WAR-SIL not to threaten youbut to ge more bearing onto GAL
me: well the first option Tatan can bounce you out of RUM even w/o turkeys help
and I trust you, but I'd still rather neither of us be in SIL
Rowain: Without Turkeys help Tatan ha to makeadecision does he wn o bouce me in GAL or in RUM
I understand about SI
SIL
I hate this chat somehow keystrokes get lost
me: I knew what you meant
anyway, apparently we have another 30 hours, I can't help you any in the south obviously but I'm willing to cooperate in Scandanavia if you are.. think about it and we can talk tom

Rowain is offline. Messages you send will be delivered when Rowain comes online.

Rowain: I'willing to work with you in the north
With at least what my litle fleet can do and if the Army moves north with that too.
Sent at 3:12 PM on Tuesday

[Bigger]

ill prob edit out the WW stuff later, too freakin' tired right now

[waterbat]

too freaking tired at 2:15 in the afternoon? you still on the crazy unemployed guy schedule? im on that schedule and I'm employed - then its really rough !

[Bigger]

lol, yes.

[Bigger]

TT wants me to move against France

Twinkletoes89: hey
me: hey, whats up
Twinkletoes89: exams over and new laptop working so pretty good!
me: awesome, welcome back
brb
Twinkletoes89: kk
Sent at 2:32 PM on Wednesday
me: sry
Twinkletoes89: no worries
Sent at 2:33 PM on Wednesday
me: so waterbat was just asking me what your plans are this year, but I don't know the answer :>
Twinkletoes89: I suppose it depends on a few factors
How tied in are you to France? Looks like he's best set to pinch most (if not all) of England's home SCs
Sent at 2:36 PM on Wednesday
me: well I dont think either of us will get a home SC in 1902, and I'll be in decent position in 1903
I'll get edi at least
but considering I havent done any diplo w/ England, except for a brief chat with tasunke 6 days ago, not sure I'm even able to change course here
Twinkletoes89: I think we could cripple France this year - if you wanted to
me: how?
Sent at 2:39 PM on Wednesday
Twinkletoes89: move to Ruh and Bur this spring while I move on Pie.

I bet you his forces are out of position for the attack on England and I doubt he will reinforce to cover Marseilles this year as he trusts me
he loses at least Marseilles and is caught massively out of position
England is weaker, and your best chance to get more of it is to take out France at this point
I can see no point in the future with a greater opportunity for you
or me
we would have 4 armies to his 2
with the portuguese army out of play for spring
thoughts?
me: POR would move to SPA
oic, in the spring
Twinkletoes89: you could support me into Marseilles in the fall while supporting yourself into Belgium
me: well
his PAR army will be in pic
as well as a navy in ENG
meaning I don't think I could take BEL even if I didn't support you into MAR
Twinkletoes89: I suppose - but he would be caught out of position without a build most likely
me: although I guess he has to retreat the PIC army to PAR, but he can stikll support BEL rom ENG
true
Twinkletoes89: lets face it, he takes spain and gets on the english mainland, we cannot take him down
too many units
and my best hope of helping you is now before I am out produced and he gets fleets in the med
me: The real danger (for me, not so much you) is making a move like that w/o being confident of ENglish support, because England could always work with him once scooter realizes I've stabbed him
Twinkletoes89: He could, but you can offer help in scandanavia, he can't - and where else could he expand?
I bet they try and take a piece for themselves when they see the way the wind is blowing
Sent at 2:49 PM on Wednesday

[waterbat]

ok interesting! spring 1902 moves are in and no retreats.

so... Rowain is indeed on top of his game, thankfully

his idea to support us in SKA "just in case" saved our ass once again - BUT - he had to know that if we bounced in SKA, that it meant certain doom for SWE in the fall.

Also funny was that he moved his MOS army into STP - he apparently came around to a possible NOR->STP move. Seemed odd to risk not doing this move when MOS couldnt contribute anything in the south right away anyway.

TT finally declared a side. Looks like he is in the anti-AT camp now. maybe we should have worked with him on the France thing a little more.... unsure if he had already committed.

Initial thoughts per country (deeper look later):

ENGLAND: the disjointed leadership is showing through - a move *back* to WAL. i think its smart to defend against scooter, but it means he can't threaten us with convoy action. The move into SKA was smart. It will be interesting to see if Molach opens up the diplo now - He can now get support in NWY from all over the place (STP, SWE, NTH), so he might be tough to dislodge if he can secure rowain's help. We need to prevent that and NWY is easy.

FRANCE: expected moves. he'll have 6 centers no matter what happens. We need to keep up. i think his fall moves will be interesting though - does he try for IRI or not? having him do ENG->NTH to cut support seems useful, but we could do that ourselves with ska.

ITALY: the cat is out of the bag. I dont know about his course of action though - if he tries to convoy from Tunis, it is easily cut by the 2 turkish fleets. if he goes without the convoy and just supports into TRI, Austria can easily defend, but it takes away resources from the eastern front. In this case, Italy's move will be Rowain's gain.

TURKEY: supported Tatan as we suggested... did we ever suggest it to him directly? anyway... they are going to have to work together again in the fall or RUM could easily fall back.

AUSTRIA: another front appears to be open. If he can hold RUM and TRI , the extra build should come in handy.

RUSSIA: as noted above - interesting to see the move into STP. Also he got himself into GAL at the expense of a center - for now. i think he realized he was going to lose RUM no matter what (either now or fall), so getting something out of it would be good. Also GAL is going to put pressure back on the RUM territory.

GERMANY: i seriously would have cried if we bounced again instead we got all we wanted with some major help from Rowain. I like the idea of moving to support Tatan in the fall. we cant really do anything until 1903, but it looks like we are helping. Maybe wait for him to ask for it

[Bigger]

no, TT didn't commit until today. He finally nailed me down and tried to convince me to move into BUR and RUh to attack France, and when I wouldnt do that, he had to attack Turkey. he made a good argument, but I like where the alliance w/ Scooter is going and I trust him right now. He actually had anti-france moves submitted, I think, but changed them once he figured out I wasn't going to help him.

I could have lied to him of course, which Mattimeo would have loved <g>, but I have strung TT along enough and didn't want to mistrust me, I might need his help later in the game.

The Rowain support sure is a nice goodwill gesture. Is there anyway I can be assured (with his help) of Norway, and get my units in position? I really think I am going to have to take Sweden - and at this point I'd just assume he take Norway (he's lost Rum in the south, and I'm not ready for a crippled Russia just yet, plus I appreciate his help).

the best moves I can see, assuming Rowain's willing to cooperate, is:

DEN a moves into sweden alone. Rowain moves SWE navy to norway and supports himself from STP. BAL navy moves to DEN. SKA navy moves to NTH - either taking it with scooters support, or maybe just cutting support from ENG or NOR.

MUN and BEL probably hold again. I originally planned to move to SIL to help Tatan harass Russia, but at this point I'm liking the 4 way stalemate in the south, and I'm also liking Rowain's assistance, so I'd rather not disrupt either one until I'm more prepared to take advantage of a Russian collapse.

those moves are just an initial idea. Before I fire off any emails to Rowain, do you have any other ideas?