[SPOILERS - El Grillo & Charriu PB51] One step at a time

[El Grillo]

T25:

Warrior is heading home and taking a safe route, Worker is starting the road to the second city. Two unknown players grew to size 4, though it's a bit tricky to tell who with the land points that came in as well. Also, the two Lions that ate Ramk's and Amica's Scouts are hanging out together. It would be nice to clean them up with the Warrior for easy exp, but the timing probably won't work out.



It's getting close to time to decide what the path forward is re: city 2 and War Chariot production. I haven't completely settled on an option yet, but I'm leaning more toward the full aggression plan. Amica's natural expansion options don't immediately box me in, but in the medium-term those Terraced PRO-defended cities will be too tough to crack and he'll know that, so we'd likely end up fighting over that floodplains area anyway. Might as well do it on my terms, not his. Judging from the graphs, Amicalola is currently also headed to Bronze Working, and he is likely timing his Settler to be able to plant for Copper. However, he will still lack Wheel and Hunting (this is where the Incan Mysticism start can actually be a drawback), so unless there's a natural connection via river and he settles on top of it, my attack window of either hitting on t43 with 5 WCs or hitting on t39 with 2 WCs and 3 trailing should be effective. The way I see it, if he detours for Archery, then a slightly later attack with more units is more likely to catch him by surprise, while if he goes for Spears then I want to attack before he can have built a single one.

Furthermore, with Ramk as my other neighbor, I definitely want units in play to watch the space between us. I wasn't sure what to make of him, so I did some Google searching and found out that he (and Plemo) are both active on civforums.de, where his thread has more activity than any of ours here! Ramk has played in a whole bunch of games there over the years, and Plemo has played multiple recent Pitboss games as well, so my threat assessment of both of them has definitely gone way up from when I thought they were both green players who weren't even bothering to report . When I have a bit more time, I might try and read some of their past games with the help of Google Translate. Anyway, surviving WCs will serve as great sentry units and fogbusters so I have an answer to any Skirmisher aggression.

[Charriu]

The warrior will move SW on the hill I suspect? Should be enough defense I suppose.

Other then that I'm all on bord with aggression. Amicola's position is way to secure with us being their northern neighbor and their southern and eastern neighbor being Atlantis. Better to get rid of Inca before the become a problem.

[El Grillo]

T26:

The Warrior indeed moved SW and uncovered a dry plains cow and the promise of more jungles to the west.



Demos look as expected with most players growing to 3 and 4, and Amica's graphs show that he's improved 3 bonus tiles at his capital, which if I had to guess are a 5/1/1 tile, plus the riverside cow pasture and dry wheat farm I had scouted.



Next turn, if Amica's Quechua doesn't show up, I'm going to go back to the sandbox and write out the timings for the WC buildup. I remember doing at least a couple of swaps to tighten the timings a bit.

T27:

Quiet turn, and good news in the form of no Quechuas in sight, so the second city should be able to plant without any disruptions. Time to bring out the sandbox, it's time!

[El Grillo]

T28 & T29:

More quiet turns, no change in the demos from Amicalola. I'd definitely put him on Bronze Working given how long it's been since he last finished a tech.



Settler didn't fully move to the city site in case there was a wolf or panther waiting to just ruin my day, but it wouldn't have been founded until next turn regardless.

However, something wonky is off with my sandbox and I'm 2 beakers behind in-game than I am in the sim. Believe it or not it actually matters because I could finish Bronze Working a turn earlier in my sim by working a riverside grass for two turns, and that won't be an option in the actual game.

As a result, comparing the options between settling on horses and settling between horse and wheat, settling on horses only actually saves 3t because the limiting factor becomes finishing BW and revolting into Slavery to actually produce the WCs. Makes me really consider the sane spot again, it just gets to do so much more in the medium term, and if the savings are only 3 turns, could that really be the difference?

Micro for settling the sane spot, while still prioritizing the rush (e.g. chopping WCs before farming the wheat):

t30: city2 founded and works the pigs, cap works rice + gfh, worker begins pasturing (1/4), slider to 0%
t31: cap works rice + gf, worker pastures (2/4), slider to 100%
t32: cap grows to size3 and works rice + 2x gf, worker pastures (3/4)
t33: BW finishes, cap Warrior finishes, revolt, worker finishes pasture, slider to 0%
t34: worker roads (1/2)
t35: city2 grows to size2 and works pigs + horses, worker finishes road, cap and city2 swap to WCs, slider to 100% on Pottery
t36: worker moves to and chops forest 1E of cap (1/3), cap 1-pop whips WC and takes pigs, city2 1-pop whips WC
t37: cap and city2 overflow into WCs, worker chops (2/3)
t38: cap 1-pop whips WC, worker moves SE and chops (1/3)
t39: cap overflows into WC, worker moves NW and finishes chop into cap WC (this saves 1 overflow hammer from rounding than chopping+whipping on the previous turn)
t40: cap grows to size3 and works rice + pigs + gf, cap overflows into WC, worker moves SE and chops (2/3), 3 WCs move from staging tile (t-3) to (t-2)
t41: worker finishes chop into capital WC, cap swaps gf to gfh (to finish WC), 3 WCs move to (t-1) and 1 WC moves to (t-2)
t42: Pottery finishes, slider to 0%, cap overflows into granary, worker moves S into forest in prep to chop, 3 WCs move to (t-0) declaring war, 1 WC moves to (t-1), 1 WC moves to (t-2)
t43: cap grows to size4, swaps to worker on rice + 3x pfh, city2 grows to size2, overflows into worker and works pigs + horse.
(... cap slow-builds workers for a bit while waiting out whip anger, city 2 chop+whips its Granary, workers farm the wheat and go back to cottage the capital)

Ideally 6 WCs is sufficient for the war (especially if Amicalola doesn't spot our incoming units until the turn they enter his borders moving from (t-1) to (t-0)) and we can go back to development, with 3 WCs attacking Amicalola's capital on t43. Compared to settling on the horses directly, the more aggressive variant can attack on t43 with 5 WCs or on t39 with the first 2. So as expected we'd be trading 2-3t of attack timing against a much more useful 2nd city since it could go on to improve the wheat without a border pop, and actually work the horses too. In my sims, I can't see Amicalola finishing Hunting and Archery and revolting into Slavery before t44, but even if I'm off by a turn somehow he'd need to be at size 4 to whip at the swapping penalty to finish an Archer after our first attacks, and hopefully we'd win with enough HP against his quechuas to be able to beat it too, with 1 fresh reinforcement that turn and 2 more on the way.

Basically, it comes down to this bit of risk assessment. If I'm 95% confident that the aggressive city placement would result in a successful elimination, how much less confident am I in this variant? 90%? 75%? Honestly it's been too long since I've played mindfully so I don't have a great grasp on that. I have a much more tangible sense of how much we'd be giving up in terms of short-term growth and cumulative value by losing the use of those two high-yield tiles. Decisions, decisions...

Finally, this is me planning with the worst case scenario in mind where Amicalola goes straight to his best defensive option, and in case the rush does fail I'd much much rather be in the position of having a strong second city than having a near-worthless one. If Amicalola decides to go for Pottery or a religion or goes lighter on Quechuas than I'm expecting, then there's far less to worry about.

[Charriu]

Good assessment. In this case I would go with the city between horse and wheat. Even 3 WC can disturbe his economy enough while also making him whip units for defense.

[El Grillo]

T30:




After sleeping on it some more, I decided to found the sane city. Welcome to the empire, Humboldt Forest: a lovely redwood forest in the northwest of California where I had a memorable camping trip with my good friend and his then-fiancee. One highlight was the Dyerville Giant at Founder's Grove, a fallen redwood that visitors are encouraged to climb and get a sense of perspective.



From the Civ side of things, I'll be following the micro plan on page 8 and pasturing the horses, then chopping the two roaded forests into our WC expeditionary force. If things don't go disastrously wrong on that front, it will eventually get 2 more improved tiles and 2-pop whip out some Workers, and later on with Fishing weave in some 3-pop Settler whips.

We are officially the first to a second city, though of course with only 3 pop and 2 improved tiles when other players already have that in just the capital. Being first in crop yield is reassuring though since it means that no one has hooked up 3 strong food resources at their capital.




No score increases from Amicalola in a while means he too must be very close to finished with his Settler. Very curious to see if the fog gives any clues about where he chooses to send it. He also is continuing to put 100% of his EPs on me, so I wonder if one of his Quechuas is trying to meet his western neighbor.

[El Grillo]

T31, T32, T33:

Turns 31 and 32 were entirely uneventful, just following the plan with the Worker on the horse pasture and the capital growing to 3 and completing the second Warrior. There's more to think about this turn, as Amicalola finished Bronze Working on T32, followed by us finishing it on T33. One confusing thing is that Amicalola has played T33 and has yet to found a second city or revolt to Slavery, which we did this turn. In theory I could calculate when his Settler would have finished and then figured out where he could be sending it based on all this, but I've had a headache all day so it's not happening. Is it possible that he went for a second Worker at size 4 with the plan of chopping/whipping out his second Settler?

Copper has been revealed. Both of us have two sources nearby.









One possibility that concerns me is Amicalola settling on top of the desert hill copper to his northwest, which I believe (and I'll definitely have to sim this) will automatically hook up copper for him at his capital due to it being on the same river, though I'm not sure if the whole thing needs to be in culture or just adjacent tiles which would work due to that lake (?). That would mean that he could skip The Wheel for now and would only need to research Hunting to whip spears at the capital, and that would be that. At least that city would be a real slow starter otherwise. He also has the option of that backline coastal city that shares capital food and picks up wheat and copper, but that would come as a bit of a surprise.

I'm pretty happy with our southern copper as a city settled on it would give us an uninterruptible copper supply and a 2h city tile, and I'd like to settle it fairly soon regardless of how the attack goes, around when we finish Pottery and want to start building cottages.

EDIT: I made a sandbox with Amicalola's riverside copper setup and it appears that while settling on the copper tile does not immediately hook up the capital with copper, it will do so once the capital pops 3rd-ring borders and claims the entire length of the river between the two cities within Incan culture. Also, he could found the city on the grassland tile between the copper and horse and just mine the copper, and because its riverside it will hook up the second city immediately, and then the capital once it pops 3rd-ring borders. Not the worst-case scenario as I had feared, we should still have a window to strike the capital before t50, but certainly not ideal.

[Charriu]

I wanted to write just the same about the copper situation, but you already figured it out.

[El Grillo]

T34:

Another quiet turn at home, but we can begin producing War Chariots next turn once the pasture road is completed. The tracker and event logger shows that Amicalola logged back in after ending his turn to revolt to Slavery on T33, same as us. Still no sign of a second city from him, though it must be coming this turn or very soon thereafter.

[El Grillo]

T35:

Some big developments this turn.

Amicalola founded his second city on T34, and I did some tile scanning to see if I could figure out where it might have been planted. Well look at what we have here... the fact that the highlighted copper tile doesn't say "requires: Mine" means that that's where his city is. Well played Amicalola for taking advantage of this resource placement, he's definitely going to go for spears and now it's just a matter of if I can get my hits in before he can produce them.



On that front, I spent some more time in the sandbox revising my micro slightly. The root change is having the capital work the pig this turn instead of city2, which ends up working out quite nicely in the following turns.

t35: city2 grows to size2 and works horses + pfh, cap works rice + pigs + gf, worker finishes road, cap and city2 swap to WCs, slider to 100% on Pottery
t36: worker moves to and chops forest 1E of cap (1/3), cap 1-pop whips WC and works rice + pigs, city2 1-pop whips WC and works horses
t37: cap regrows to 3 and works rice + pigs + gf, finishes WC and overflows into WC, city2 finishes WC and overflows into WC, worker chops in place (2/3)
t38: worker moves SE and chops (1/3), cap 1-pop whips WC and works rice + pigs
t39: cap regrows to 3 and works rice + pigs + gf, finishes WC and overflows into WC, worker moves NW and finishes chop into cap's WC
t40: cap finishes WC and overflows into WC, worker moves SE and chops (2/3)
t41: worker chops in place into cap's WC, cap works rice + pigs + gfh
t42: Pottery finishes, slider to 0%, cap grows to size4 and finishes WC and overflows into worker on rice + pigs + 2x gf, city2 finishes WC and overflows into warrior, worker moves to wheat and farms (1/5)



The biggest difference is that by having the capital work the pigs an extra turn over city2, the capital hits its growth thresholds cleanly and allows a 1-pop whip that regrows in between turns, twice on t36-37 and t38-39. It finishes its last WC with exact hammers and grows to size4 a turn earlier. Having city2 work a 2h tile that turn also helps to shave a turn off of it finishing its 2nd WC. Pretty happy to squeeze out a bit more efficiency here and there, and slightly embarrassed that I missed it in my first attempt. The tradeoff is that the second city is slower to regrow to size 2 after its first whip, but this actually gives me time to improve the wheat farm.

The other decision to be made is a tactical one. I think it might be worth sending out my first pair of WCs as soon as they are completed on t37, without waiting an extra 2 turns for the 3rd to complete from the capital. Amicalola seems to be quite on top of things and I don't think I'll catch him off guard with my numbers by waiting, whereas hitting 2 turns earlier might make a bigger impact. Every turn where we can attack Quechuas with WCs will matter, because the big deadline is when the first spear can be whipped in, finishing on t51. I thought about if Amicalola could speed that up by founding a religion next in his second city, but the way the river flows it actually needs the cap's third-ring, just the second city's second-ring would be insufficient. As far as I know the religion never appears in the capital if there is a second city, so that's a relief. One other thing to consider is that because Quechuas as a unique unit don't queue-upgrade into Spearmen, he can't whip ASAP because of the swapping penalty, and I don't expect him to have grown his city to size 6. Upgrading costs 80g, which I suppose could come into play if he stops researching as soon as he finishes Hunting, but I think I could detect that from the GNP chart. That would be a really defensively-minded play and would slow his development down quite a bit, so would he go that far? For that matter, he could try speeding up his border expansion by chopping and 1-pop whipping a Monument at his capital! Could he possibly finish it in time to have a spear ready before my first WCs could hit?

It's currently T35, so the capital has 68 culture in it (2 per turn minus the anarchy turn). Graphs show he doesn't yet have a Monument, but assuming in the worst-case scenario he finished it between turns and it started producing culture on T36 at 70/100 culture, that would pop his 3rd-ring borders on T46 instead of T50 without one. T46 is the exact turn my last pair of WCs built on T42 could attack his capital, while the other 4 would have already hit. If my math is right, then while he would have the extra cultural defenses, he would not have had time to whip in a spear, in part due to a Quechua not queue-upgrading. Furthermore the micro adjustment I made this turn makes that one additional WC attack possible in time. If the Monument doesn't finish by next turn, then it's too late to matter, assuming my combat rolls don't go too poorly. More Quechuas to stuff the capital with would probably be better, though obviously if my attack would have come later then a single spear would be much more valuable than 2 Quechuas. This may all be overly paranoid on my part, but a lot is riding on this rush of ours so I want to make sure I've done all my due diligence. Honestly if I had known about that copper placement I would've put my foot down and settled on the horse to get my attack in 2 turns earlier. Well, what's done is done. Next turn once I whip out those first two WCs, the die is truly cast.

Whew, that's a long enough post already, but there's more! 



We also got Ramk's graphs this turn, and good god I think I need to reinstall Blue Marble with the blue UI instead of the gold one! He has the top power if I'm reading things correctly, went Bronze Working first, then a couple of spikes of at least 6k which could be Archery, and a recent 4k increase which could be a Skirmisher. His food graph is also surprisingly low, and he has yet to found a second city. Maybe a chop-heavy opening with a second early Worker? In any case it would be really bold for him to send Skirmishers at us, especially once he sees our power rising. 



Demos with 5 pop and 3 improved tiles look pretty good. Hopefully we come out of this looking as good.