WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Molach]

90% or so by meta alone, I agree we have a high chance of sk.
For every villager that claims, scum odds of choosing random claim improves. (8 unknown roles, 4 villagers. 50 % you claim wrong. 7 unknown roles 3 villagers. 43% you claim wrong)
A smart vig might even leave hints, so if it comes down to a face-claim-off, you can point back and win.

[Jowy]

Hey Vig, you don't need to claim. You've got plenty of good targets to choose from and we'd rather not have you blocked or killed. Keep on rockin

Once mass claim comes around, we can judge him by his play and by his reasons for his targeting.

We could have a SK, or we might not. Let's not worry about it too much, it should be clear in time. Hunt mafia, not indies.

[Jabbz]

Before coming here, I've never played with a third party role. Is Jowy's claim that we shouldn't worry about a sk, and instead should focus on mafia sound, given that we are already two mafia, and two town, down or is that some shady shit? Not being accusatory here Jowy, just looking for some input.

[Bobchillingworth]

Yes, a claim would be good, since I currently see myself sitting on him for the complete day.

Thanks for alerting us in advance as to your plans to be completely useless for 48 hours. I'll endeavor to ignore your posts with renewed vigor.

I'm not so sure a vig would have claimed, but I don't see a reason to speculate about it. I just hope that whoever killed Lewwyn follows up by killing Bob. He didn't claim yesterday, so no reason to be gun shy.

Hey everyone, if I die tonight it was totally a vig and definitely not at all Zak & associated scum. I haven't claimed, so vigs, goons, SK etc. should feel free to just blast away at the scary information void. Who knows what you could bag!

Information wise, lynching bob next would be good, all things considered. I actual hope he's claim is possible to be verified, because then we don't need to spend a lynch, seeing as I don't think he has been playing in a scummy way.

Ichabod... what the heck?


Lynching anyone provides "information". But collecting voting data alone is a really bad reason to get rid of someone, especially if you legitimately believe that I'm actually with the village. If you've got a case to make for why I'm scum, go for it, but please don't park your vote on me D3 because you think it will somehow yield valuable clues after I'm lynched. Unless I'm misunderstanding your post?



I'm torn on the idea of a vig claiming. If we have a village vig, then it's just another pointlessly exposed power role (we surely aren't anywhere near LyLo yet). At the same time, I do suspect there's a SK running around instead, in which case having them self-identify is obviously useful. I kind of doubt there will be any takers.

[Jowy]

Before coming here, I've never played with a third party role. Is Jowy's claim that we shouldn't worry about a sk, and instead should focus on mafia sound, given that we are already two mafia, and two town, down or is that some shady shit? Not being accusatory here Jowy, just looking for some input.

The thing with SK's is that they are harder to catch by play because they can hunt mafia. They can also kill mafia, and mafia can kill them. It's best to focus on hunting mafia. One of our power roles might catch the SK at some point. A tracker might track him to a kill, a watcher might see him kill, a jailkeeper might notice the lack of a SK kill on a night he jails the SK, a vigi might not kill his target and if unexplained by town claims, it's either mafia protected by mafia doctor, or SK who is bulletproof. Things should be clearer later in the game after mass claim. SK also needs to be the last one alive to win, and it is rare that they make it all the way to the very end. Mafia is our main opponent in the game.

[Ichabod]

Ichabod... what the heck?

Lynching anyone provides "information". But collecting voting data alone is a really bad reason to get rid of someone, especially if you legitimately believe that I'm actually with the village. If you've got a case to make for why I'm scum, go for it, but please don't park your vote on me D3 because you think it will somehow yield valuable clues after I'm lynched. Unless I'm misunderstanding your post?

I'm not going to vote for you based on that and I won't park my vote on you because of that.

[Qgqqqqq]

I'm not sure where you are going with this. I'm not claiming you did something wrong. I'm saying theres no fuckin way in hell I could know that my changing votes would derail the train. AFAIK I have/had zero town cred from you, or most people for that matter, so why would people jump on my vote? I made the call I thought was best, by following people I trusted, and supported by the quick read through I did of the claims. I also hopped off TT, as I said, because I didn't have time to evaluate his counter-claim, and at the time, it didn't look like his bus was going anywhere anyway.

I know exactly what you're saying here.

You turned a relatively even 3-way lynch into a two-way lynch, eliminating one of the candidates from realistic consideration. I'm not saying that's inherently wrong - like I said, I was about to do it the other way to TT, and I wasn't opposed to a Dtay lynch, by any means. But it does mean that if he flips scum, we'll want to look very closely at you, and vice versa.

That you're trying to deny that and avoid being associated with protecting TT is something that I'm finding more suspicious.

I don't get what you're saying about claims here, either.


Vig should absolutely claim now. Don't listen to Jowy, he just enjoys being contrary. But yeah, we have at least one SK.


@Jabbz, SK is questionable. I mean, we could have none, we could have two. We could have no mafia left, we could have loads. The reason people say not to hunt SK's is it's distracting, and gives the mafia (who are generally the more dangerous faction) room to hide. At the same time, you need to be wary of dismissing them too eagerly - each is an extra anti-town kill and vote, and - whilst it's difficult - they have won in the past.
Here we also need to keep in mind that my scans reveal mafia or not-mafia, so if there's a SK there, than they can hide as a supposedly confirmed villager.

[Jabbz]

How in the hell am I protecting TT? I made a pretty substantial case against him early day two. I haven't retreated from that claim, only backed off for the moment to evaluate it.

@Claims, I don't mean "I'm a cop", I just mean arguments people are making about other people, claiming they are scum. Didn't think about its more traditional use in this context. Sorry to be confusing.

@SK analysis, thanks, that, along with Joey's further explanation, helps clarify things.

[AdrienIer]

Well, why Vig should claim:

1. Claimed vig is confirmed non-mafia. He's either villager or SK. Either a confirmed villager or a cornered SK, both good village outcomes.

2. More information is better and I find that a confirmed villager is more useful to the village than a Vig. Vig is not a good role, except on very late game situation, where we can kill a player without losing another day of lynch, so it helps trimming the options. Confirmed villager is a massive thing for villagers, it's one less person that you need to read with suspicious eyes between all the madness.

3. I don't trust our Vig to make good shots. Shooting Lew was bad play, in my opinion. Yes, he got a Mafia, but he risked a good town player with not a lot of evidence behind his guess.

4. Every day we lynch someone without the useful information we could get by a reveal we lost something. Yes, I understand why cops and watchers and such should not claim, I'm not saying that everyone should claim, but it's beyond me why a villager Vig wouldn't claim, after we are sure he's a villager.

5. Villager Vig claim would narrow down the other power roles scry/watch/track list. And if he gets killed by Mafia in place of the cop, that's good news for village, since cop is way more important.

Anyway, like I've said, I'm sure we have a SK. There's no rationale that I can see behind not claiming the Lewwyn shot for a villager Vig. It's very, very obvious play for me and I'll operate under the assumption of a SK from now on. Later, if we have a villager vig and he claims, we can have a talk about his reasons and perhaps I'll be enlightened/we'll understand each other. But right now, I say we have an SK and I think that's a pretty fair assumption to make.

Not sure about that.
1) a mafia could claim vig and lie about which night kills were his and so on. There's only one vig role so theoretically we could have none at all in the game.
2) Not sure how claiming is "confirmed villager". Novice claimed and even before Matt busted him I didn't think he was confirmed town.
3) Who was the better target then ?
4) The vig is a danger for mafia, Lewwyn's death will push that point even further in their minds. Without a mass claim on D3, and assuming Q gets killed tonight the vig is an obvious mafia target if revealed.
5) Again you're assuming the claim would be true. Which you can't be sure of.

We can definitely have both SK and vig, Lewwyn was a likely target for both sides last night.

Bob it was your own decision not to claim today even in front of a near lynch. About half the players thought you were the best candidate which means that if the vig is one of them you're a likely target tonight. If you had revealed you would have gotten yourself a day or two of respite from a lot of people, that was YOUR choice, now YOU get to face the consequences.

[Twinkletoes89]

Are we seriously discussing having someone claim right now?

Let's just give the mafia free information to kill a dangerous target?

Claims are for the day time, when we can use them, not the night when it gives the village zero benefit