Astronaut without sin confounds press, invites trio to control civilization

[spacemanmf]

It's not often you see someone with a power graph like ours on the defensive.

Approx power adjustments:

Us: 1,336k->1,480k (up 124k)
Mackoti: 1,123k->1,159k (up 36k)
Luddicator: 1,054k->1,104k (up 50k, estimated)
Yuri: 500k (assume unchanged)
Sian: 207k->216k (up 9k)

[spacemanmf]

Right then, here's the defence we left in Ganymede. We left 3 units (EOT) in Callisto and Titan in case he has sneaky commando knights waiting to pounce. We don't think they can take it this turn and given the losses they would hopefully suffer, we actually would prefer them to do that. Especially given our rapid reinforcing. (EDIT: We promoted some of those muskets and pikes before ending the turn.)



There is still the possibility of them splitting stacks, which might get messy, but that would hopefully enable better mopping up.

F1 screens before EOT:




And the demographics after we ended turn:



Our power rating is 130k higher at EOT compared to pre-drafting.

[novice]

In before Spaceman steals all our thunder:



Operation Turtle is under way. In addition to the 69 units in Ganymede, we have 3-5 units in Titan, Europa, Ariel, Janus and Callisto, two loaded galleons that can unload in Europa next turn, and 3-4 loaded galleons in Callisto that can unload in Ganymede next turn.





Most of those 1t builds are just slowbuilds, microed for max hammers and using overflow from previous whips.

[spacemanmf]

Totally too slow dude.

[spacemanmf]

And remarkably similar...

[spacemanmf]

So the tracker probably needs fixing to (a) loop me back in and (b) remove Fierce (who allegedly has the save right now).

[spacemanmf]

Ok then, we have the save.

So the main stack moved towards Europa:



In the mega-stack closest to Europa, there are 61 knights, 11 horse archers, 6 impis and a chariot. So 79 units. They threaten Ganymede, Europa and Janus.

1SW of them (1N of Janus) are a further 3 knights. They are only threatening Janus right now.

1W of those 3 knights (1NW of Janus) are 8 freshly invading knights (mostly promoted to pinch). They are only threatening Janus too.

Finally, on the hill 1N of those knights, there are 5 more knights with a mace. The knights there threaten Ganymede and Janus.

On a side note, mackoti has continued to reduce the defence of Ariel with the two frigates in Pharsalos.

I think we have to attack this time.

Those extra pinch knights of mackoti are annoying, though, since they can attack the tile 1N of the mega-stack, which would otherwise be a decent square to leave our units on in order to block the path back to Ganymede.

But I think we still have to leave some there, as well as 1E of the mega-stack, in order to block any attempts to take Ganymede and Europa. Our units are, to some extent, disposable since we can replace them so quickly.

[spacemanmf]

So, attacking. We can send in 17 Barrage II cannons (which get 63.7% odds) and 14 barely promoted catapults (which get 2.3% odds).

How much damage will that do to 79 units? I have no idea.

We then have 44 units to attack from Ganymede, plus 3 maces NW, plus 6 units from Callisto loaded on boats. (NB: 3 pikes and a warrior can also move to defend Ganymede.)

There are 4 useful units that can attack from Janus, 8 from Europa, 2 from Titan, and 3 drafted muskets.

So that's... 70 units.

And one or two of those we should leave in Ganymede and Titan, although we can 1-turn pikes in Ganymede (or a musket here) and Titan (and Europa and Callisto), as well as chain some units into Ganymede. We can also whip yet another archer in Janus.

Oh man, this is going to be bloody.

Let's say, for the sake of it, that our cannons and non-siege units get on average 2/3rds chance for victory.

So we have (say) 11 (out of 17) cannons left, and 46 (out of 69) non-siege. That means we kill 46 units, leaving 33. We'd have to assume they have promotions to use so could heal a lot of any damage we will have caused (hopefully we can mostly take out knights with our attacks).

So they have 33 left, plus 16 knights that can attack the square 1SE of Ganymede.

We have 57 surviving units (ignoring the catapults, which would probably get flanked away even if they survived).

Hmm, not looking good.

[spacemanmf]

OK, I did a quick sim which I couldn't get to randomise, annoyingly.

Anyway, these were the results. This is just the cannons having attacked, not the catapults.



I didn't bother doing all the promotions. The Combat II pikes were getting 96% odds, although that ignores the odd shock knight that is there, and the muskets were getting 78% odds. That's making me feel a little bit better, although not many cannons survived the initial attacks.

I'm half-inclined to leave the catapults in Ganymede. Yes they are useless defenders, but they are units that need defeating to take the city, and they're just going to be sacrificed in open land.

[spacemanmf]

I've attached the WB save for you to have a look if you wish, but I think it's telling me that we should send in the cannons...

Let me know when you're back. I'm in tomorrow night.