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WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

Rev the Chainsaw boys this is going to get messy. :D

Some things just need to be told as they are.

Tasunke Wrote:Of you, I hope, you could see the wisdom in voting Sareln at this time. As a villager he has learned how to lurk *well*. I will admit that in WW11? 12? He played a good WW game, but right now it seems that the wolves may be trying some sort of *cute* strategy or something because, other than propping Novice up for mayor, I haven't seen any clever plays yet enacted by the wolves (that I could see). Therefore, I can see how even though Sareln played a wolf well in that game, he might not be able to now. Particularly telling is with how much vigor Novice and Gaspar defended his "innocence."

What is interesting is that Sareln's argument against his lynch (or rather, his argument directly towards me at least) is that I have been simply repeating the same idea with little to no evidence. His adoption of two wolf-based BWs seems, at least to me, to at least be moderate evidence (or at least little to moderate evidence) ... but NO evidence? The fact that he would emphasize an idea that there is no evidence whatsoever (what he did) or even to simply place it on the continuous range (zero to little vs little to moderate) seems, to me, an exagerration.

...

Not really sure what to think about the Ichabod wagon ... but I KNOW* that we should have a good lynch with Sareln. So I would ask the Ichabod voters to reconsider Sareln.

*well, obviously I don't know, but still.

How does it feel to be so utterly convinced of an idea that you cannot even consider the possibility that you are wrong Tasunke?

You have several themes going against me: Wireless comment in day 1, Bad votes for Mattimeo and Bigger in day 1, and a supposed ignoring of your accusations. But I have not ignored your accusations, you've just decided that I have! Either your refuse to read what I write, or you're being willfully ignorant of my defense in an attempt to get your mislynch. I'm not sure which it is.

Sareln Wrote:Tasunke's Litany. 15 of his 37 posts, chron. Order from Top to Bottom. I don't quote these as defense per-say, but rather to point out that if I get lynched (and I will flip vanilla villager) you should consider what it says about Tasunke's alignment. Right now I am personally of the opinion that he is also village but is in love with a theory of my guilt wink.

...

(Here I quote very single one of your posts regarding me)

...

As to my own votes day 1, I opened with Tasunke, Followed Lewwyn onto Qgqqqqq, Pushed Mattimeo as an alternative to theStick, and then pushed Bigger as an alternative to theStick and Mattimeo since I think a more conservative play would've been better than potentially lynching a village investigative/protective role. Sounds pretty damn bad when we know now that theStick was guilty as hell, doesn't it? lol

Later on I hit the note again:

Sareln Wrote:...

Looking at the big picture, I think it's interesting to see what happened to each of those Mattimeo voters after Mattimeo made his claim.

As the Mattimeo wagon collapses there are (possibly) two kinds of voters on Mattimeo: Wolves and Villagers.

Wolves know that theStick is guilty, so they have to make a snap decision: do they bus theStick for village credit, or do they attempt to build a different bandwagon? If Mattimeo is innocent they also know he's telling the truth*, so they need to get off his wagon post-haste.

Villagers on him only know that Mattimeo has claimed cloaker. And then theStick claims watcher. So what do we do? Clearly we shouldn't stay on Mattimeo. Even if he's lying, it's just too risky a possibility to lynch any village protective role on day 1. What about lynching theStick? That might be solid if he's lying, but once again, if he's telling the truth we're lynching a villlage information role on day 1. Also pretty damn bad. Also, theStick has a pretty strong lead, maybe he's telling the truth and any wolves on him are going to stick and get that anti-village mislynch in.

So both wolves and villagers, if they're thinking clearly, see that there are only two options left for their votes at end of day. Either theStick or Bigger (the one with the 3rd place vote total).
...

Where do I ignore your accusation? I freaking list every single one, and then go in depth about what I was thinking at the time and why my votes went as they did. Your best evidence is that I made anti-town votes in day 1, and I address them head on!

Your wireless accusation I met with the seriousness it deserved earlier:

Sareln Wrote:@Tasunke, theStick

This game is starting with me on the road, so the train-wireless was a happy coincidence that allowed me to post. I thought it worth mentioning, though apparently this is an unpopular statement? tongue

Oh gee, look at who also latched onto the thinnest thread of an introductory post. wink

How do you know that both the Mattimeo and Bigger bandwagons were wolf based? I sure as hell don't know. Maybe every single Bigger voter at the end of the day was innocent? That sounds absurd on it's face, yet it's no less absurd than assuming that every single person who voted Mattimeo and then Bigger is guilty! Why must every wolf play be clever? How do you not recognize that you're making gigantic assumption about how the day went?

Instead, you've grown your post count from 37 -> 60 (23) while taking your total number of references to me from 15 -> 25 (10). You are obsessing but you've not brought anything new this entire day. Just the same tired (he made bad votes) accusations which I've done my best to address*. But you won't see that. You won't see that the wolves know the full situation as the Mattimeo wagon collapses but not us villagers. You won't acknowledge even the possibility that I could be innocent. You won't even acknowledge that I have addressed every point that you've made.

*Actually, now that I re-read this, you have made a new accusation today: that I started a run on Pindicator. Well yes, yes I did, how is this a wolf tell? You know why it makes sense as a villager? Because as a villager on the block it's not enough to make the case against lynching yourself, you also have to make a positive case for someone else. So I tease apart the day. I build lists and look at overlaps. I build a vote record and analyze it, and I find that the best vote is Pindicator. I make my posts just as the Euro-day is starting and surprise, the European players address it. How is this shocking? How is this some proof of malice?

...

Okay, now that I'm done (uselessly) shouting at Tasunke duh ... I saw a JKaen comment (about Pindicator) in the thread that I want to address.
Blog | EitB | PF2 | PBEM 37 | PBEM 45G | RBDG1
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I've skimmed through the posts during the whole day, there's lot to chew here. Mostly gut readings, sorry if I'm doing injustice to anyone. I can relate to Selrahc, following this game effeciently on mobile is impossible.

Surprised that waterbat hasn't gained more heat. Early vote of thestick, backed away as soon as it gained little traction. Didn't press thestick afterwards (?). Generally no village vibes. Seemed to misunderstand my point. Jkaens misunderstanding made people think him villager, so...

Jkaen reading more like villager during the day.

Mattimeo made a good point of Zak dying after making the case on Ichabod. If Ichabod is villager, that's two flies with one strike. Case against him is mostly the feel of his posts. I think there are better cases and it would be horrible to lynch villager Ichabod on day2.

Injera's attack on Ichabod feels out of nowhere. They both suspected Gaspar, so very strange choice, especially as there's plenty of alternatives. Really tempted to vote him if it gains traction.

Tasunke insisting of his grand theory makes me think wolf faking crazy villager.

Crossposting with a bunch, somehow missed pindicator. Can't remember much of him, flying under the radar? [COLOR="red"]Pindicator[/COLOR]
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Ichabod Wrote:And, please, go and enlighten me about the big meanings of the day 1 lynch. Please. Interesting that you waited until after a lot of bandwagons were formed and 2/3 hours for the game to end to come and talk about the meanings of day 1 lynch. Why not speak before? And I don't see you speaking anything right now either.

I've been talking about it since it happened, starting the night before. My very first vote was on Sareln precisely because of what happened on Day 1.

Ichabod Wrote:And as much as you want to not see, defending myself is a good thing I'm making to the village. At this moment and through all day 2, it was the best thing I could do.

Except you didn't need to. You had a few votes on you, all non-concrete, because of Zak's suspicion at the start of the day. Meanwhile the train on Sareln was full steam ahead.

Quote:Still waiting for your day 1 insights that don't have anything related to lynch me... You know, the things I should have caught on.

Sorry I didn't post in the middle of your post.
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uberfish Wrote:Novice, I didn't get #975.





Merovech Wrote:zak and (novice? Was he the other early guy on thestick?
Serdoa Wrote:A wolf would
Ichabod Wrote:know.






Tasunke Wrote:He is saying that Merovech is looking innocent because he thinks Novice is innocent (based on being an "early" voter on TheSTick) and not much else. ...
uberfish Wrote:no






Ichabod Wrote:I guess it meant the following:

The way Merovech didn't remember who was the second guy (novice) to early vote for thestick (he only remembered Zak, who made the first vote) makes Novice think he's less suspicious.

Probably because, if he was a wolf, he would know pretty well what happened during the forming of thestick train.
uberfish Wrote:Yes
I have to run.
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About Catwalk and uberfish votes on Bigger right before deadline -

Uberfishs post was first so he couldn't know catwalk would do it right after. And I think there was a catfish crosspost - I don't think it's possible that catwalk could have read uberfish post then crafted his whole post from scratch in less than 2 minutes, quote and all. Mabye he sat with the post written out, hitting refresh or preview post, waiting for someone to switch. Really? The 'rescue' didn't even succeed.

So if it's wolfplay it's some gambit, 'wolf would never do that'-style. But easier interpretation is actually that they wouldn't.

Tasunke's "novice is obviously wolf" statement has me leaning a bit village on him. What wolf would say that now? While novice is not 100 % villager, suggesting he is 5% (?) is ...an interesting observation.

I'm torn about Sareln. Went for TT to at least explore other candidates before the lynch got locked in, but still suspect him.

(Preview post)
And now pindicator. I'll read up a bit on him, then move vote in half hour or so, looks like sareln vs pindicator atm. Can't say right now which is better lynch, both are on my suspect list.
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I'm not liking this Pindicator swing - possibly just my general suspicion of latish swings, but this is starting to stink
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
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Meiz Wrote:Injera's attack on Ichabod feels out of nowhere. They both suspected Gaspar, so very strange choice, especially as there's plenty of alternatives. Really tempted to vote him if it gains traction.

I'd be on board.
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Molach Wrote:Tasunke's "novice is obviously wolf" statement has me leaning a bit village on him. What wolf would say that now? While novice is not 100 % villager, suggesting he is 5% (?) is ...an interesting observation.
I think it's way over the top by purpose... like you said, what wolf would say that, right?
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Gaspar Wrote:There are other lunches I could get behind - Catwalk, Selrahc for two
First Lewwyn and now you want to eat me too? I need to start being less delicious. I'm starting to have fun again, I keep imagining novice as a 5 year old kid with a glue stick, a pair of scissors and a very concentrated look on his face.

I agree that pindicator's newfound explanation for day 1 votes is not credible, if it was genuine I think he would have brought it up much sooner. I might still change that vote, but I think he's a good candidate if enough traction can be achieved. I think the case against Sareln is poorly founded.

TT, votes have to change from time to time. If that always stinks to you, WW must be a miserable experience for you smile It's not new accusations, and they're not coming out of nowhere. What is suspicious to you about it?
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uberfish Wrote:I don't believe that.

If you were voting mattimeo just to reaction fish, and didn't suspect him, you'd have pulled your vote when the wagon started and not waited for Matt to claim.

And why would you not say anything about the reaction test until now??

Pindicator

I wanted to hear him respond first. I wish he hadn't claimed right away and instead just answered my question.
Suffer Game Sicko
Dodo Tier Player
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