PBEM8 - regoarrarr takes over for Meatbalz

[regoarrarr]

An early save for me this morning, not that it really matters for all practical purposes whether I get the save at 1 a.m. my time or 8 a.m.

But I awoke to some bad news. In addition to the every turn red text messages that "The enemy has been spotted near Pepper" (and Cumin), I got one that we saw ye olde enemy at Saffron. It took me awhile to try and remember where Saffron was, but then I found it -



He used a Woody 2 spear to take my 2 workers who were mining the gems tile.

I have a Combat 1 axe who is the lone garrison of Saffron (I know, I know, but I'm so weak everywhere I have to gamble on these things).

He gets 97.6% odds on the spear (relative strengths of 5.5 and 2.91).

Unfortunately, there's a Woody 2 Dog Soldier that would be able to attack me back (not to mention he very well may have other units nearby).

So the real question for me is how many XPs would I get for the attack on the spear. I'm at 3/5 right now, so if I could get 2XP, then that would let me turn on auto-promote, and since I play last in the turn sequence, I could get another promotion (hopefully shock!) and might have okay odds defending.

According to the seminal article on the subject

The winner of combat gains experience points. Like most of combat, experience points are determined by the ratio of strengths. The value is floor(iXPValue*opponent_strength/your_strength), where iXPValue comes from the XML file. For all standard units, iXPValue is 4 for an attacking unit and 2 for a defending unit. The minimum number of experience points for a successful fight is 1, however. The strengths are the displayed modified strengths (from bonuses and hps).

So it should be floor (4 * 2.91 / 5.5), which is 2.11 so.... yay!

[regoarrarr]

So I did a few simulations.

A non promoted Dog Soldier (well he's Woody 2 but that doesn't help him attacking me on a hill) attacking a fully healthy axe on a hill has the following odds

C1 axe: 32%
C2 axe: 27%
C1 shock axe: 20%

Of course, watch auto-promote promote it to something like cover or city raider

But I think this tells me I have to at least whack the spear. Plus the 8 commerce from working the gems mine this turn will not be inconsequential. Or is that saying that it will be consequential. Is that even a word?

[regoarrarr]

Okay I figured I had to take the shot at the spear.

I won!



I took 1 hit and did get my 2 XPs.

Now it's off to check on that auto-promote code

[regoarrarr]

Okay a few things as I play the turn



Good ol' Rosalind Franklin was born and founded an Academy in Cumin. That bumped beakers up by 11 / turn @ my current rate at 40%, and would be 22 / turn at the max 100%. It also lets me put those scientists back to work and be able to grow Cumin into its grassland villages that it already has - it's got plenty of room under the happy cap.

Since I'm going to have to turn on auto-promote, I stuck a few other things into the queues of the 2 cities that were set to complete units this turn - I don't really want the governor auto promoting all my units. Hmm I'm going to have to check if it will promote even the existing units that need promotions.

Okay so as mentioned last night, WK got Alphabet and here's where we stand.



* Priesthood (52)
* Code of Laws (304)
* Engineering (871)
* Alphabet (261)
* Calendar (304)
* Feudalism (609)
* Monarchy (261)

Ooh ooh but after I end turn, I'll have
* Monotheism (104)

on him!!!!

So that's a beaker deficit of 2558 beakers. Yowza.

The other thing that we can check is the total populations of the other civs. As a reference my population is 39.

The formula for total pop is: Formula: Treasury * 3 * cityPop * investigate cost / stealcost / 2 / (their ep + 100)

I plugged in those numbers and found that... it didn't work well for Serdoa and Ad hoc as their treasuries are so small. The "Steal Treasury" cost is blank for both of them. So I plugged in just 1 to hopefully get an idea.

Serdoa: 49
Ad Hoc: 28
Shoot the moon: 92
regoarrarr: 39
WarriorKnight: 37

I got WarriorKnight, by taking my 39 population being 15.85% of the total population, giving the total population as 246. So that's totally wrong. WK leads with 28% (rounded) of the population. He's got to have 69-71 pop. This makes me feel a bit better because I was starting to cry if I really had a 39-92 deficit in total pop points!

Anyone see any flaws in my methodology there?

[regoarrarr]

So I still need to thwomp ad hoc. My only chance for glory in this game is to take his land.

He's 5th in score, and is approximately on par with me technologically (ahead some / behind some). He's also on part with me in soldier count (217K for me, 214K for him).

What units can I kill him with. Let's examine the beaker costs of various options.

Here's what I'm calling "core" technologies that HAVE to get researched for basic infrastructure

* Theology (435)
* Monarchy (261)
* Calendar (304)

That's a cool 1000 beakers. I would estimate my current teching ability at about 120 bpt at break even.

Option 1: Maces
* CoL (304)
* CS (696)

Another cool 1000 beakers

Option 2: Knights
* Feudalism (696)
* Guilds (871)

1569 beakers

Option 3: Curassiers
* CoL (304)
* CS (696)
* Meditation (69)
* Philo (696)
* Nationalism (1567)
* Aesthetics (261)
* Drama (261)
* Music (522)
* Mil Trad (1742)

6118 beakers i.e. a lot.

Option 4: Musketmen
* Feudalism (696)
* Guilds (871)
* Gunpowder (1045)

2614 beakers

Hmmm... obviously the more beakers, the better the units. Maybe I do try to do something with maces and cats, while also going to knights for a quicker strike force?

[spacemanmf]

Plus Cuirassiers need Gunpowder. That unit isn't really an option at this stage...

[regoarrarr]

Plus Cuirassiers need Gunpowder. That unit isn't really an option at this stage...

Yeah. Before I ran the numbers ,I was picturing some sort of targeted beeline where I could explode on the scene with Curassiers in a reasonable timeframe, rolling over the defenses.

So..... not so much.

[regoarrarr]

Okay the save is back to me. What's the big news?



First of all, the auto-promoter "correctly" promoted my axe to Shock. Thanks Blake!!

Ad hoc's dog soldier opted not to take the 22% battle, and used his woody movement to go around, threatening my "empty" city. Little does he know that I have a Guerilla 2 archer going there, plus I'll be whipping a crossbow.

Annyoingly I lost a worker to a rogue Indian spear. Stupid fast workers "Centralia" is starting to get a little heated over here!

[regoarrarr]

Even though the battle was not engaged, I found myself with a bit of a crisis. I have 2 workers under my shock Axe, but I have no way to evacuate them. They can't get back to Saffron through the jungle, and the dog soldier is blocking the road.

After a bit of thinking and some discussion with my closest military advisors, a bold gambit was decided upon!

I'll EVACUATE Saffron - putting the axe, the archer and both workers on to the sugar tile, counting on the whipped crossbow to hold the city. A dog soldier won't have odds on either the shock axe or an archer on the jungle sugar. Shoot the moon's worker stealing spearman complicates things slightly, but a spear isn't going to touch a shock axe in jungle.

Still trying to grab the islands



Here's the new city of Basil.

Also you can see that "Operation Bethlehem" is working out nicely. I have plenty of coin saved up to get Theology in 2 turns. Up to 212 bpt at max science, and 127 bpt at 60% (slightly cash positive). The economy is definitely looking up!

[Whosit]

Annyoingly I lost a worker to a rogue Indian spear. Stupid fast workers "Centralia" is starting to get a little heated over here!

Ah, Centralia. That brings back memories. But in less stupid and more relevant commenting: Quite an interesting gambit! Do you have plans/means to protect Saffron's borders in the future? It looks like just anyone can walk in there.

And what's going to defend Basil? Units, or hope?

Good luck!