Okay. Well. That pretty much makes most of my warriors in Ithralia invincible compared to his attacking sons of asena.
My strongest warrior, Leonardo da Vinci, has the following then: 3 base strength, +15% fortify, +25% terrain, +25% city defense, +20% combat 1, +20% cultural defense -10% sons of asena city attack bonus. That's 3x1.95=5.85 strength. He also has shock 1, which reduces attacking sons of asena strength by 40%, making the strongest possible Sons of asena attacking him this turn 4 base strength +20% combat -40% shock 1 on Leonardo = 4x0.8 = 3.6 strength.
The reason i am calculating all this is because of this picture:
![[Image: Civ4ScreenShot0549pngeh.png]](http://img.imgcake.com/Civ4ScreenShot0549pngeh.png)
I'm fearing that the stack with 3 sons, 2 wolves and the scout will go north to the mine NE of Ithralia next turn. That is bad for two reasons. First, he can then easily traverse to Mutanbo without my warriors being able to intercept him. Second, he can destroy my mine. Therefore, I want to place warriors on that tile NE of Ithralia. He can kill them, and do so much easier than if he attacked Ithralia, but It'd be worth it because if he attacks I should be able to strike back from Ithralia, killing off the weakened units. That would both help me because I can replace units much faster, but that would also help save Mutanbo, and I wouldn't lose any mines (hopefully).
I need to figure out how many warriors I have to keep back though. That's why I am calculating. Basically every warrior in Ithralia will get the 25% warrior city defense bonus, the 25% hill bonus and the 20% cultural defense bonus. Thatis 70%. Then minus 10% for the sons of asena city attack gives a 60% bonus against sons of asena and 70% against wolves and scout. Add to that the varying degrees of fortification, from 0% to my newest, 15% on Leonardo, 20% on two warriors, 25% on three, 10% on two and 15% on another. Some of my warriors will therefore have 85%-95% bonus, depending on whether it's a sons of asena attacking or not. Which makes it 5.55 strength for 85% and 5.85 for 95%. His attacking sons of asena will have 4 strength. His units also have 0-1 first strike. That shouldn't be too much of an issue I think. I have 10 warriors in Ithralia. He can attack with max 8. So if I put two warriors on the NE mine, he can't possibly take it, since I will complete another warrior when I end my turn.
However, I should be able to put more than two warriors on that mine. If he gets extremely lucky with every dice roll he could kill all my warriors, but come on. My 8th worst warrior is a 5.4 strength (25% hill, 25% city, 20% cultural 10% fortify). His 8th best is a scout. 1.4 strength (it's damaged). Yeah. There is no way he's killing my 8th best. So I can remove one. And even then he has to get lucky with all the other dice rolls as well. My 7th best is 5.55 strength (same as above but 15% fortify). His 7th best is a 3 str wolf. May or may not have strength penalty against cities. He's not taking that either. According to my probably a bit off calculations taken from (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=137615), he should have less than 1% chance of killing my 7th strongest warrior.
Actually going by that link, let's take his strongest sons of asena vs my strongest (Leonardo). He is 4x(1+0.2-0.4=0.8 )=3.6 Leonardo is 3x(1+0.25+0.25+0.2+0.2+0.15-0.1=1.95)=5.85
3.6/5.85=0.615. According to the list in that link, that should give him a 2-5% chance of winning. Also possibly a first strike but that couldn't possibly help him more than maybe bumping him to 8-10% or something. The next son will probably also attack Leonardo... And so on. If I remove my weakest (read lowest fortify bonus) four warriors from Ithralia, I remain with three 25% fortify, one 20%, one 15% (leonardo, he has combat and shock 1) and one 0% (the newly created one, he has to be there). Their strengths are in decreasing order: 5.85, 5.55, 5.55, 5.55, 5.4 and 4.8. And that's against sons of asena, so against other units they get another 10%. All his units within reach together are in order of decreasing strength: 4.8, 4.8, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 1.4. And that is without factoring in that the first attacking sons of asena will get -40% because of Leonardo's shock 1. But wait! That's not all! Those two last 4's attack from across a river! That gives another 40% to my defenders, giving my 25% bonus warriors 6.75 strength against them! I just don't see how it would be possible for him to take Ithralia with those 8 units against those 6 of mine. He'd have to have the luckiest dice rolls ever.
So yeah that's what i've been doing for a while. All that is probably terribly hard to read. Well, I might clean it up later. The fact that all this might be terribly wrong scares me, but I sincerely hope it isn't. Someone tell me this isn't a terrible idea
I'd move 4 warriors to the plains hill, where they only get the 25% terrain bonus, giving them 3x1.25=3.75 strength. The combat 3 wolf has 4.8, the combat 1 son of asena has 4.8, the others have 4. So yeah they would probably die if he attacked. But would he? If he does I most certainly should be able to finish off most if not all of his troops. He must be injured quite a bit. the str 4 vs str 3.75 battles is according to the aforementioned site a 62-75% battle. I just took a 70% battle killing the scout near Mutanbo, which gave my attacking warrior 1.4 remaining strength. If his sons of asena have that little strength left I should be able to kill them.
Now watch all of this be in vain because I have misinterpreted something somewhere.
My strongest warrior, Leonardo da Vinci, has the following then: 3 base strength, +15% fortify, +25% terrain, +25% city defense, +20% combat 1, +20% cultural defense -10% sons of asena city attack bonus. That's 3x1.95=5.85 strength. He also has shock 1, which reduces attacking sons of asena strength by 40%, making the strongest possible Sons of asena attacking him this turn 4 base strength +20% combat -40% shock 1 on Leonardo = 4x0.8 = 3.6 strength.
The reason i am calculating all this is because of this picture:
I'm fearing that the stack with 3 sons, 2 wolves and the scout will go north to the mine NE of Ithralia next turn. That is bad for two reasons. First, he can then easily traverse to Mutanbo without my warriors being able to intercept him. Second, he can destroy my mine. Therefore, I want to place warriors on that tile NE of Ithralia. He can kill them, and do so much easier than if he attacked Ithralia, but It'd be worth it because if he attacks I should be able to strike back from Ithralia, killing off the weakened units. That would both help me because I can replace units much faster, but that would also help save Mutanbo, and I wouldn't lose any mines (hopefully).
I need to figure out how many warriors I have to keep back though. That's why I am calculating. Basically every warrior in Ithralia will get the 25% warrior city defense bonus, the 25% hill bonus and the 20% cultural defense bonus. Thatis 70%. Then minus 10% for the sons of asena city attack gives a 60% bonus against sons of asena and 70% against wolves and scout. Add to that the varying degrees of fortification, from 0% to my newest, 15% on Leonardo, 20% on two warriors, 25% on three, 10% on two and 15% on another. Some of my warriors will therefore have 85%-95% bonus, depending on whether it's a sons of asena attacking or not. Which makes it 5.55 strength for 85% and 5.85 for 95%. His attacking sons of asena will have 4 strength. His units also have 0-1 first strike. That shouldn't be too much of an issue I think. I have 10 warriors in Ithralia. He can attack with max 8. So if I put two warriors on the NE mine, he can't possibly take it, since I will complete another warrior when I end my turn.
However, I should be able to put more than two warriors on that mine. If he gets extremely lucky with every dice roll he could kill all my warriors, but come on. My 8th worst warrior is a 5.4 strength (25% hill, 25% city, 20% cultural 10% fortify). His 8th best is a scout. 1.4 strength (it's damaged). Yeah. There is no way he's killing my 8th best. So I can remove one. And even then he has to get lucky with all the other dice rolls as well. My 7th best is 5.55 strength (same as above but 15% fortify). His 7th best is a 3 str wolf. May or may not have strength penalty against cities. He's not taking that either. According to my probably a bit off calculations taken from (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=137615), he should have less than 1% chance of killing my 7th strongest warrior.
Actually going by that link, let's take his strongest sons of asena vs my strongest (Leonardo). He is 4x(1+0.2-0.4=0.8 )=3.6 Leonardo is 3x(1+0.25+0.25+0.2+0.2+0.15-0.1=1.95)=5.85
3.6/5.85=0.615. According to the list in that link, that should give him a 2-5% chance of winning. Also possibly a first strike but that couldn't possibly help him more than maybe bumping him to 8-10% or something. The next son will probably also attack Leonardo... And so on. If I remove my weakest (read lowest fortify bonus) four warriors from Ithralia, I remain with three 25% fortify, one 20%, one 15% (leonardo, he has combat and shock 1) and one 0% (the newly created one, he has to be there). Their strengths are in decreasing order: 5.85, 5.55, 5.55, 5.55, 5.4 and 4.8. And that's against sons of asena, so against other units they get another 10%. All his units within reach together are in order of decreasing strength: 4.8, 4.8, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 1.4. And that is without factoring in that the first attacking sons of asena will get -40% because of Leonardo's shock 1. But wait! That's not all! Those two last 4's attack from across a river! That gives another 40% to my defenders, giving my 25% bonus warriors 6.75 strength against them! I just don't see how it would be possible for him to take Ithralia with those 8 units against those 6 of mine. He'd have to have the luckiest dice rolls ever.
So yeah that's what i've been doing for a while. All that is probably terribly hard to read. Well, I might clean it up later. The fact that all this might be terribly wrong scares me, but I sincerely hope it isn't. Someone tell me this isn't a terrible idea
I'd move 4 warriors to the plains hill, where they only get the 25% terrain bonus, giving them 3x1.25=3.75 strength. The combat 3 wolf has 4.8, the combat 1 son of asena has 4.8, the others have 4. So yeah they would probably die if he attacked. But would he? If he does I most certainly should be able to finish off most if not all of his troops. He must be injured quite a bit. the str 4 vs str 3.75 battles is according to the aforementioned site a 62-75% battle. I just took a 70% battle killing the scout near Mutanbo, which gave my attacking warrior 1.4 remaining strength. If his sons of asena have that little strength left I should be able to kill them.Now watch all of this be in vain because I have misinterpreted something somewhere.
![[Image: Civ4ScreenShot0556pngyg.png]](http://img.imgcake.com/Civ4ScreenShot0556pngyg.png)
![[Image: Civ4ScreenShot0590pnghe.png]](http://img.imgcake.com/Civ4ScreenShot0590pnghe.png)