[SPOILERS] Tales from the Enchanted Forest - Thessa of the Ljosalfar

[Nyktorion]

Turn 79

Yonna's culture grabbed my part of the flood plains between Yonna and Vallus back from Mr. Yellow. Workers are starting their pasturing of the sheep. Apart from that, I did just some micromanagement...



Foreign news:

Graphs show that the guy with 44k soldiers (i.e. getting the biggest share of last turn's increase) last turn must have been either Irgy or Thoth.

City growths (this turn): Mardoc's second city (5), Mardoc's third city (5), Thoth's third city (5), Thoth's fourth city (2), Irgy's third city (5)

Techs gained by: Mardoc (ancient), Thoth (classical), Irgy (ancient)

Soldier count: total 7k, split into 3k from pop + 4k from other sources (all going to the guy who had 44k soldiers last turn, putting him at 49k)

Maybe the most interesting piece of news is the one in plain sight. Mr. Yellow switched his civics:



A strange (on the technical level) thing about the switch is this:



The switch to religion was not mentioned in the event log, but he was Nationhood last turn...

I also think that the switch is strange on a gameplay level: his civic choices will not help him in our conflict in any way, neither culturally (-10% total output) nor militarily (-10% unit production, i.e. at least -1h per turn in all cities building units, and loss of the capital bonus); while I understand the switch to apprenticeship, I can't find the reason why he would switch to City States and Religion right now...

[Nyktorion]

Turn 80

Got a negative event:



It hit Hyll, i.e. my only big city without access to the farmed riverside corn.
The pasture for Yonna is finished, the workers are now moving towards another cottage for Hyll, and towards farming those two flood plains along the border to Vallus.



Foreign news:

City growths: Trinity (3)

Techs: WarriorKnight got another cheap (~300 beakers) and nonmilitary classical tech

Soldier count: rose by 3k globally; that is split into 1k for pop, and 2k for moving the rival best (Irgy or Thoth) from 49k to 51k (probably with a scout or lightbringer)

Future plans:

As Way of the Forests is due next turn, it is getting time to think about my next research goals. The following techs might be of interest to me:

Festivals -> Drama: the former is interesting on its own for the economic boost by markets; the latter would give me either the Autumn Song or a culture bomb in Yonna for free

Fishing -> Sailing: for hooking up those crabs in Evermore, and possibly settling on the island east of Evermore

Horseback Riding -> Stirrups: while I don't have any Horses, I could hook up deer with a tundra city, so that would be a military option to consider

Crafting -> Mining: at some time, revealing copper and getting forest hill mines would be in order

Knowledge of the Ether -> follow up tech -> Sorcery: I should put that Arcane trait to use at some point, and get my own version of siege weaponry

Philosophy -> Way of the Wicked/Priesthood: priesthood lets me get that forest economy going, and Way of the Wicked will finally give me Slavery, a tool for putting all that surplus food produced from the riverside corn and the riverside farms (and soon, the ancient forests) to good use

Currently, I favor getting the economic boost from festivals next, followed by the productivity boost from slavery and forest-growing priests. I could also imagine going for the productivity boosts first.

[Nyktorion]

Turn 81

The hunting lodges in Hyll and Bruti are now finished. Hyll will now produce a hawk, followed by one or more hunters, while Bruti will rather specialise in archers.

Concerning workers, I am now building a road south of Bruti for quicker future access to Kabhalg and the Broken Sepulcher. Other workers are farming the flood plains on the border to Mr. Yellow, covered by two warriors.



Foreign news:

City growths: Mardoc's second city (6), Inishbofin (5)

Soldier count: both global and rival best increased by 3k each, so the strongest one got another warrior

[Nyktorion]

Some Diplomacy

Before playing today's turn, I received two diplomatic messages. First, one by WarriorKnight:

Dear nyktorion

Congrats on getting both FoL and Gilden! Getting both your hero and your religion in the same turn is quite an achievement. I'm sure your people are partying long and hard, or something like that. Not much has happened in Elohim land recently unfortunately (or at least comparable to what you've been up to) but I thought I'd just catch up and see how things are going with you.

Regards,
WK

Just some of the usual, though nice congratulations Still, in my answer, I'll plan to include one more serious item, which is the delivery of the following by Mr. Yellow:

Hello Nyktorion.

While we have had our dispute regarding our borders, another issue is brewing from the west.
During talk with the Malakim they have suddenly gone silent and have been building up for something.
I've tried to get any response from them, but to no avail. They have just hooked up copper and have curiously hided their warriors from my view, all a sign of an invasion.
For that reason i'm willing to swallow my pride and no longer contest the river between us. Furthermore i'll even concede the northern area where the pines are.
What i'm asking for is military aid on my western border to reinforce against a possible runaway power. I've yet to talk with the monks about this and will contact them at a later time.
I've researched Cartography a while ago and can get an Open borders agreement up to allow passage through my lands.

I hope you are willing to let go of recent hostilities and unite against an empire that is increasingly more obviously looking for lesser powers top dominate.

Sir Yellow, Chief Advisor of the Bannors.

Things are getting interesting now. Basically, I see three general possible paths of action here for me:

• Help Mr. Yellow. This would improve our relationship again, it would essentially make him obey the very suggestion I gave him when he spotted my Yonna settling troop (get your settling lands from the Malakim rather than from the Ljosalfar), and hamper one of the leading civs (Thoth)
  
• Sit back and do nothing. Two civs warring each other should be nice to watch, and WarriorKnight's presence would mean that balance of power remains in the game
  
• Hit Mr. Yellow, too. In the case of success, this would split Mr. Yellow's lands between Thoth and myself. That would give me some much-needed land, and eliminate one potential threat.
  

I did not really know how to react before I opened my turn, but after playing it (and also thinking about it some more), I'm really favoring the last option. Therefore, I'm writing about T82 next, and then follow up with a closer description of my thoughts about this message.

[Nyktorion]

Turn 82

Eventful turn!

First, we have researched Way of the Forests, meaning that we are the founders of the Fellowship of Leaves! The holy city is Hyll, and there was already a free spread to Yonna
I immediately revolted to the new religion, and sent the free disciple to Evermore (which can use the additional happy face).

Gilden Silveric is ready, as well; I already sent him south towards Bruti. I'll get a second hawk in Evermore now. That way, I can keep one in Yonna watching Mr. Yellow, and have hawk that is free for new explorations.

Speaking of my first hawk, I sent it to Yonna, and immediately let it make its first recon flight. Let's see what it revealed:



I see some more Bannor lands. I also see that Mr. Yellow can't capture my workers next turn, because he has no workers in position to build a road from Vallus to my own workers. I also take a look into Trinity:



I can find a market in there, confirming that Mr. Yellow has already researched festivals.

Moreover, this recon flight also tells me that I should not really trust Mr. Yellow; more on that in the diplo section below.

Since I'm now anticipating some real conflict involving myself soon, my next research goal will by Philosophy -> Way of the Wicked for Slavery.



Foreign news:

This turn, quite a few items I'm really uncertain of are marked by a "?". I had a hard time making all numbers add up, and due to the number of point increases, there might be other ways to make things add up, too.

City growths: Cahir Abbey (8), Irgy's third city (6)?, Irgy's fourth city (1, just founded)?, Tentatio-onis (2), Astrum (1, just founded), Mardoc's fourth city (2)?, Thoth's third city (6)

The rest of WarriorKnight's point increase is due to Deruptus Brewing House (??), and the rest of Mr. Yellow's increase are land points for Trinity's first ring.

Next up: why I believe that I and Mr. Yellow will be hostile quite soon.

[Nyktorion]

Special update on Mr. Yellow

First off: my C&D information on the Bannor

• Techs: currently has 11 techs, all of them ancient, making him pretty much the last in the tech department. Currently, I know the identity of 10 of those techs: Agriculture, Ancient Chants, Calendar, Cartography, Crafting, Education, Exploration, Festivals, Mining, Mysticism.
  
• Cities: Torrolerial (7), Vallus (5), Trinity (3), Tentatio-onis (2), Astrum (1).
  
• Soldier count: 36k (plus up to 0k-5k, to be checked in the graphs next turn), consisting of 9k from population and 27k from actual units. Looking at the distribution of his soldier count increases reveals that those 27k should come from 7 warriors and 3 scouts.
  
• Other notes: Contact with WarriorKnight and Thoth; Trinity has a great bard.
  

Now, what are conflict-boosting things I know about Mr. Yellow?

• Let's have another look at the map delivered by our hawk this turn:
  
  
  
  In particular, notice the shape of the borders. From that, it is clear that none of the revealed tiles is within the first three cultural circles of Torrolerial; so Vallus has been founded quite some distance away from Torrolerial. This reminds me of the pink dot, and I now consider this a very aggressive move by Mr. Yellow - even more aggressive than my own founding of Yonna (I think that the distance between Torrolerial and Vallus is at least as large as the distance between Evermore and Yonna).
  
  
• Mr. Yellow's current strength is very weak, and he does not have the tech for anything but warriors and scouts at the moment; however, his huge land and Bannor's intrinsic military strength starting from fanaticim still make him a mid-term threat that should not be underestimated. Therefore, the best opportunity for action against him is relatively soon.
  
  
• Mr. Yellow has quite some land; this means that I consider him a threat mid-term, but it also means that the spoils of a war against him would be plentiful. Already the cotton of Vallus, or the flood plains of both Vallus and Trinity look quite yummy
  
  
• The distance between his borders towards Thoth and myself seems rather large. In the case that Thoth is really planning some aggression against Mr. Yellow, that would make an attack of my own tactically rather convenient.
  
  
• I am running out of settling space. After the Kabhalg, the point of least resistance would simply be Vallus (unless I want to expand overseas or into the tundra). Also, the hawk's map clearly shows that Vallus is the evry reason I am running out of settling space.
  
  
• According to my C&D, Mr. Yellow currently has 7 warriors, with an 8th one possibly finished this turn. Subtracting the 3 warriors in Vallus and ignoring the scouts, that leaves only 4-5 warriors for his 4 remaining cities. Assuming that he has at least 1 warrior in each city, this means that Vallus contains more military than whatever his border city towards Thoth is. So somehow, he does not seem to fear Thoth that much, at least not as much as he is fearing me. That makes me wonder how sincere his fears of Thoth really are.
  
  
• I think he had Mining for about 20 turns now, but has never researched Bronze Working since then. Did he just not feel threatened, or is this a sign that he has no copper within his borders. At least, by looking-for-tiles-that-yield-more-hammers-than-they-usually-should, there is no copper in the working radii of Vallus and Trinity.
  

Conclusion: I think I'll better prepare for a war against Mr. Yellow soon.

[Nyktorion]

My response to Mr. Yellow:

Dear Sir Yellow,

The news from the west is certainly a heavy development in global politics, thanks for telling me about it! Indeed, it would be a quite bad development if one of the top powers swallowed a neighbor already now.

Still, I think that the distance between our empire and your western border would make aid in the form of military units rather inefficient. I have gotten a hawk into Yonna last turn, and from what it has revealed yet, I judge the west-east distance between your borders to be quite huge.

We see some possibilities, though: we are already quite close to getting trade routes, so maybe those could open up some deal that would help you? Also, as I have mentioned, I do already have hawks, for which large distances are much less of a problem than for ordinary military units - I could imagine having a deal that involves me relaying some scouting information from the west of you, as well.

I hope that any of those suggestions can help you, but of course, I am open to other ideas, as well.

best regards,
Nyktorion

I'm playing nice with him diplomatically as long as I don't have to get committed into something too much. That's also the rationale behind my two alternative offers: a small resource deal would just be "nice", but wouldn't hamper any of my own plans to annex Vallus and Trinity some day. The best case for me would be him asking me for copper - that would tell me that he doesn't have any himself! Also, any hawk scouting towards Thoth would benefit me as well; I could finally map out the lands that Yonna's hawk can not reach!

Dear WarriorKnight,

as always, I am happy to hear from you. Thanks for the nice words, getting two of my civ's specials in one go (if you consider FoL as belonging the the elves, that is :D) is quite a satisfying thing! As exciting as last turn was due to these two events, I have to say that I'm sharing your not-much-happening feeling for the turns before that.

I have to congratulate you, as well, though, on a more continous feat: your economy really seems to be blooming!

On a final note: there seem to be some tensions building between Sir Yellow and Thoth. Have you already heard about that, as well?

best regards,
Nyktorion

Mostly a chitchat response towards his chitchat message. The last part might get interesting, though. Maybe in this way, I can get him to tell me what he thinks of the conflict before I have to declare my own stance.

[Nyktorion]

Turn 83

Things are getting more quite in my own land again. I'm moving some units to cover Gilden when he attacks Kabhalg, and one of the flood plains farms for Yonna is finished.



Pictures taken thanks to my hawk:



Here I noticed (with some zooming) that Vallus has a carnival now.



So WarriorKnight has gold...

Foreign news:

City growths: Glens of Killybegs (7), Thoth's fourth city (3)

Techs: WarriorKnight (classical), Thoth (classical), Mr. Yellow (ancient)

Soldier count: rose by 36k (!), split into 1k pop for Thoth, 26k or 27k for rival best (Thoth?), and 9k unknown. So, Thoth might indeed have gone on a major upgrading spree (e.g. >=8 warriors to swords, armed with bronze weapons?). On the other hand, none of the missing +5k went to Mr. Yellow last turn. So he still had 1 warrior for each remaining city this turn. If Mr. Yellow is indeed Thoth's target, things mgiht be looking grim for the Bannor...

[Nyktorion]

Diplo response by Mr. Yellow:

For now we can get a NAP and an open borders agreement up (i'm letting your units in on permission). The city that i fear will lose soon is 14 tiles to the west of Vallus and it would take around 10-11 turns of travel time to reach (road network not fully optimized yet). The capital is 7-8 turn traveltime away.
I'm also up for additional trade agreements and have resources to spare.

What i'm currently looking for here is a few extra units for defence. Although the distance and time might indeed be too much and not worth the trouble. Hawk support would be apprechiated.

This *DOES* sound a bit desperate, and coupled with this turn's soldier count readings (the rival best, which is probably Thoth, is at 81k soldiers now!), Mr. Yellow's situation is looking even worse than I actually wished for last turn.

First off: sending units for defence would be a rather hopeless cause, even if I indeed wanted to send some. Looking at the soldier count numbers, I would say that it will take less than 10-11 turns until the attack hits.

Anyway, I definitely like his open borders offer, giving me free hawk scouting of his lands, and with some luck, the relayed information will help Mr. Yellow against Thoth, too; he'd have to add some more substance to his current military, though, if he wants to resist Thoth's onslaught.

Inconveniently, an NAP is added to that, but that was to be expected. Anyway, I wouldn't be ready to strike Mr. Yellow at this moment yet: I only have a low-XP Gilden, which would be able to win a 1-vs-1 attack against any of the defenders of Vallus soon, but he certainly needs some backup if I don't want him to succumb to several warriors. Also, collecting some more XP would do him well to get safe enough in those 1-vs-1 attacks, and I want Kabhalg, too.

So I think that about 20 turns would suit me well as the length of our NAP. Due to his nice distance description, I am confident that at least Vallus (and maybe even Trinity) won't be taken yet when such an NAP runs out. That's also the time I think I need to make some use of the whip, and it would put Gilden around the 26XP mark (giving him Combat III, Shock II, for instance).

Also, my war preparations against Mr. Yellow will keep an exit button until soon after I research Way of the Wicked. Slavery is also useful domestically, and I haven't diplomatically announced my intentions to anybody yet. Seeing as there are still a few unknowns in the geopolitical situation (Irgy, Mardoc), this might be a good thing.

[Nyktorion]

Sent to Mr. Yellow my proposal on the hawk & NAP & OB deal:

Dear Mr. Yellow,

for now, getting an NAP and open borders up for about 20 turns (say, until including T105) would seem fine to me. OBs would get the clause that units may only pass into the other's territory with specific permission. Further, for the duration of this treaty, neither Vallus nore Yonna excessively generate culture (for instance, not more than 5 per turn). You grant the right of passage to one of my hawks, I will order it to do scouting toward the Malakim lands, and I will send you screenshots of the results (note that this will show Thoth's movements with a delay of one turn, since he moves after me and before you).

If you accept, offer me OB ingame at your next turn, and grant passage to a second hawk, I might (depending on the arrangement of Torrolerial, Tentatio-onis, and Astrum) already be able to do the first such Malakim scouting flight from a city close to your western border city next turn.

What do you think of this?

Concerning further trade agreements, a road on any of the tiles east of Vallus should suffice to give us trade routes.

best regards,
Nyktorion

I just added a clause formalising his I-don't-dispute-our-border-anymore a bit.

My statement of how my scouting should already be almost at the Malakim border next turn should apply some gentle time pressure on him, so he won't bargain for an excessively long NAP (T110 would be the maximum I think I'd find acceptable).