RBPBEM FfH V [SPOILERS] Sareln of the Amurites

[Sareln]

Chat with Iskender:

(10:55:03 PM) Iskender: hey. thanks for the heads up
(10:55:47 PM) Iskender: and congratulations on the sage, way to go!
(10:56:02 PM) Sareln: thanks, and yeah, he got used to bulb KotE
(10:56:21 PM) Sareln: with a pillaged capital, the academy would pay off in 30 turns, and I have to think with a smaller window than that right now :P
(10:57:12 PM) Sareln: as to the heads up, no problem. Figured you could use the warning with the power numbers being what they are.
(10:57:14 PM) Iskender: i can give you ench. mana as soon as we have a trade route
(10:57:20 PM) Sareln: excellent
(10:58:40 PM) Iskender: maybe we could extend a road
(10:58:49 PM) Sareln: roads will be hard to keep up with that wolf-rider around.
(10:58:52 PM) Iskender: i have a city east of the pyre
(10:59:11 PM) Iskender: so maybe fishing
(10:59:15 PM) Sareln: probably fishing
(10:59:32 PM) Sareln: if he's moving north I can link my two cities and that will put my trade route out to that river.
(10:59:58 PM) Iskender: gotta go play the turn
(11:00:12 PM) Iskender: i'll reach you later
(11:00:22 PM) Iskender: i mean.. errr tomorrow?
(11:00:33 PM) Sareln: heh, yeah sure.
(11:00:35 PM) Sareln: talk to you later!

[Sareln]

T72:

Holy crap my nerves are shot, so much adrenaline. I just took out the wolf-rider over the river at the price of 3 warriors. That just took all the mobility out of the choke, I get to have tile improvments again!
My simulations said that the 7 warriors I had in the capital should be able to do it, even across the river, but pulling the trigger was still hard. I was expecting to lose 6 warriors! In the end, I flipped a coin head to go for it, and I just pulled the trigger.

Score right now is 4 Warriors to 1 Wolf Rider. I don't know why he left him hanging out there. I think C3/S1 might have given him a false sense of security, since Promos are funny things in the CIV combat engine. The remainder of his choking forces (2 Goblin Archers and a C2 Warrior) are camped on a hill just north of my copper site, nowhere near the capital. I've got 2 workers with a 3rd on the way. Probably will pump out another warrior from the capital while growing and then another worker again.

The choke isn't over, but it's definitely the end of the beginning here in Amurite lands.

YACWB:

(1:28:09 PM) BobChllingsworth: I finally checked the demographics screen for PBEM 5
(1:28:15 PM) BobChllingsworth: someone has only 13 gnp
(1:28:18 PM) Sareln: whoopsie
(1:28:21 PM) Sareln: wasn't me :P
(1:28:26 PM) BobChllingsworth: how is that even possible
(1:28:32 PM) BobChllingsworth: that's like, the palace
(1:28:34 PM) BobChllingsworth: and that's it
(1:28:47 PM) Sareln: heh
(1:28:51 PM) Sareln: well, I have no tile improvments
(1:29:04 PM) Sareln: on the pluse side, I just traded 3 warriors for that goblin rider!
(1:29:09 PM) BobChllingsworth: haha
(1:29:12 PM) Sareln: boom mother fucker
(1:29:17 PM) BobChllingsworth: I was about to ask, how the choke is going
(1:29:19 PM) Sareln: so much adrenaline going
(1:29:26 PM) BobChllingsworth: was that this turn?
(1:29:30 PM) Sareln: yeah
(1:29:35 PM) Sareln: I'm still staring at the screen
(1:29:41 PM) Sareln: not quite comprehending that I actually did it...
(1:29:46 PM) Sareln: I had 7 warriors
(1:29:46 PM) BobChllingsworth: haha
(1:29:49 PM) Sareln: but had to go across the river
(1:29:57 PM) Sareln: I was screwed if he managed to retreat on the defense...
(1:30:05 PM) Sareln: oooh, 13 xp
(1:30:10 PM) Sareln: boom mother-fucker indeed...
(1:30:20 PM) BobChllingsworth: better cover the winner
(1:30:27 PM) BobChllingsworth: unless he can't snipe him
(1:30:50 PM) Sareln: he can't, but the last thing I need is a lizardman out of the fog to ruin my day :P
(1:30:56 PM) BobChllingsworth: I personally am very much looking forward to the turn after next
(1:30:59 PM) BobChllingsworth: verrrrry much
(1:31:01 PM) BobChllingsworth: so much
(1:31:16 PM) Sareln: OO?
(1:31:16 PM) BobChllingsworth: YOU WILL SEE WHY
(1:31:21 PM) BobChllingsworth: something like that!
(1:31:25 PM) Sareln: either that or Perpentach
(1:31:27 PM) Sareln: but I figure OO
(1:31:32 PM) BobChllingsworth: Loki :P
(1:31:37 PM) BobChllingsworth: Perp is the leader
(1:31:43 PM) Sareln: what'evs
(1:32:20 PM) BobChllingsworth: my GNP sucks tho
(1:32:26 PM) BobChllingsworth: beaker count is pathetic
(1:32:32 PM) BobChllingsworth: it's all just a lot of culture
(1:32:35 PM) Sareln: you're doing better than me sir... :P
(1:32:51 PM) BobChllingsworth: hah. I don't have an excuse, though :P
(1:33:09 PM) BobChllingsworth: I'm just not very good with managing an econ
(1:33:29 PM) BobChllingsworth: I love production too much, and I hate micro or sims.
(1:34:58 PM) BobChllingsworth: another great scientist was born this turn. Dunno if you can build elder councils yet, or if you already got a GP, but if you can and you haven't, probably a good idea to catch up
(1:35:37 PM) Sareln: I already got my GSci
(1:35:41 PM) Sareln: he was popped for KotE
(1:35:49 PM) Sareln: shocking I know...
(1:35:53 PM) BobChllingsworth: haha
(1:36:00 PM) BobChllingsworth: that's surely the best use
(1:36:10 PM) Sareln: Academy would take too long to pay off
(1:36:16 PM) Sareln: what with a pillage capital
(1:36:31 PM) BobChllingsworth: I don't plan to ever build an academy, at least not anytime soon
(1:36:34 PM) Sareln: so bulb for the fast adept with haste
(1:36:36 PM) Sareln: heh
(1:36:46 PM) BobChllingsworth: too bad you don't have mind mana
(1:37:04 PM) BobChllingsworth: floating eyeballs are really neat tho
(1:37:27 PM) BobChllingsworth: I'd happy trade you my mind mana for a loan of your meta :P
(1:38:29 PM) BobChllingsworth: and hey, if you have jungles you can burn them all into forests, which is kind of okay if you'd rather wait 60 turns for them to finally finish burning rather than spend 5 chopping
(1:39:30 PM) Sareln: hehe
(1:39:40 PM) Sareln: given that I've got BW in the pipe in another 2 turns
(1:39:46 PM) Sareln: I'll probably go with the chops...
(1:39:53 PM) Sareln: now Tredje's land on the otherhand...

[Ilios]

Nice!

Do you remember the odds you had after each Warrior?

[Sareln]

Nice!

Do you remember the odds you had after each Warrior?

The first one (with C1) had 0.8%, the 2nd one had 14% (no promos). I didn't bother checking on the 3rd since after the first warrior, I just needed to keep committing warriors until the deed was done. No way could I afford to let him get away, even if it took all 7 warriors in the capital once the bloodshed had started.

[Sareln]

The first one (with C1) had 0.8%, the 2nd one had 14% (no promos). I didn't bother checking on the 3rd since after the first warrior, I just needed to keep committing warriors until the deed was done. No way could I afford to let him get away, even if it took all 7 warriors in the capital once the bloodshed had started.

And yes, if his defensive retreat had proc'd I would have been hosed.

[Ilios]

Hehe, I get the adrenaline rush!

Pretty good move you pulled off here, you're probably right that Tredje didn't expect you to throw all those Warriors at his nicely promoted Wolf Rider.

People tend to forget that even if a unit is strong, it's still only one unit.

[Sareln]

Hehe, I get the adrenaline rush!

Pretty good move you pulled off here, you're probably right that Tredje didn't expect you to throw all those Warriors at his nicely promoted Wolf Rider.

People tend to forget that even if a unit is strong, it's still only one unit.

Perhaps he didn't notice that I had finished a 2nd worker and therefore his wolf-rider was in range of the capital if I was willing to attack across the river? Definitely possible.

[Sareln]

Still dancing that is all.

[Sareln]

[SIZE="5"]Mob Rule Combat Analysis:[/SIZE]
Initial Results: I got Lucky, the odds that I would only pay 4 or fewer warriors to kill that Goblin Rider were approximately 2.5%. Numbers and Calculator to come.

Edit: After days of intense research, Amurite Scientists have perfected a multiple-attacker, single-defender combat odds calculator. It does not yet handle [STRIKE]first-strikes[/STRIKE], collateral damage, or [STRIKE]withdraw odds[/STRIKE], but for now we can answer the initial question: "Just how lucky did we get, and how big of a gamble did I just make?".

Multiple-Combat-Calculation:

Single-Combat-Example
[SPOILER]

[/SPOILER]
EDIT: Updated to Show Newest Calculator Images

In short, damn lucky, but not nearly as lucky as the initially estimated 2.5%. And yes, this does show that I bet the game on what was effectively a 75% combined battle. In the following days, I hope to coordinate with Cyneheard to add the missing functionality and consider (but probably discard) the idea of building a multiple-attacker, multiple-defender calculator.

[Ravus Sol]

2.5%?? You lucky SOB!

Maybe you should rename the lucky warrior appropriately. 2.5% could be a name :-p