[Spoilers]Don't Shoot the Archduke! Diplomacy Lurker Thread

[Selrahc]

Multiple units can't occupy the same square.

Bul->Rum bounces
Con->Bul bounces
Ser->Bul bounces

All 3 units remain where they are.

[Sareln]

Apparently Nakor trusted Scooter!? To his detriment then...

[Mardoc]

Apparently Nakor trusted Scooter!? To his detriment then...

Definitely bad for him. The only question is whether he trusted Scooter, or thought he'd bluffed scooter away from Brest.

Also, Russia got the Black Sea. That's very bad for Turkey, right? Since a black sea fleet is very tricky to dislodge, but can provide support or convoys to all sorts of places.

Amelia's Death or Glory attempt may be ending in death. Maybe the Juggernaut wasn't such a bad idea.

[Sareln]

Definitely bad for him. The only question is whether he trusted Scooter, or thought he'd bluffed scooter away from Brest.

Also, Russia got the Black Sea. That's very bad for Turkey, right? Since a black sea fleet is very tricky to dislodge, but can provide support or convoys to all sorts of places.

Amelia's Death or Glory attempt may be ending in death. Maybe the Juggernaut wasn't such a bad idea.

Her move set implies that she shelved the planned stab and just went ahead with a "let's cooperate for now" set of moves. She would've been better off if she had tried for the stab (Bul -> Rum, Arm -> Black Sea) given what actually went down.

[Sullla]

Reposting the moves and results for easy viewing:

Orders:


Resolution:


- Awesome turn for England, really couldn't have gone much better. England picks up two builds and already has an army on the Continent in Fall 01. Wow. You don't see this very often. I would expect another fleet and another army from the builds... With another fleet in London or Liverpool, England can crush the only French fleet in the water (France cannot build another fleet in Winter 01) and gain control of MAO, opening up Spain and the Mediterranean. England looks to be one of the dominant powers in the game.

- Disastrous turn for France, as if it wasn't obvious. France had to gamble on the orders, and wasn't able to guess correctly. France did get Spain and Portugal, but at the cost of allowing Germany into Burgundy, and (the real disaster) allowing England to convoy an army into Brest. This basically means that France is finished as a naval power, and England will have total control of the seas. France's only allowable build is an army in Paris, which won't be enough to hold the stalemate lines for long once England and Germany get their builds. France needs to get someone to stab their allies, or it will be the first power eliminated.

- Good turn for Germany, not spectacular but still good. Germany takes Denmark and Holland for 2 builds, and bounces Russia in Sweden. Getting the army into Burgundy will be crucial in taking down France. There's not much more to say here, the key question is whether Germany builds two armies or an army and a fleet. England will want Germany to avoid building fleets. We'll see what he does.

- Italy is actually in a fairly weakish position. Yeah, the move to Piedmont screwed over France, but the main beneficiaries were England and Germany. Italy will get one build in Tunis, and that looks to be it for a long time. 4 SCs isn't many to work with, meaning Italy will probably be a minor power. Supporting the army into Venice ended up doing nothing, as Austria will just build another army in Trieste next turn. I honestly have no idea where Italy will go from here.

- Austria actually had a pretty good turn. One build from Serbia, free passage into Galicia to trouble Russia, bounced the Turks in Bulgaria, and advanced the fleet into Albania. Good stuff there.

- Turkey nearly had a great turn, but it ended up being a rather weakish one in the end. The good news: control of Greece in Fall 01! The bad news: everything else. Bouncing with Austria in Bulgaria created a traffic jam which blocked all of the other units. No build in Bulgaria (and Turkey should pretty much always get that province in Fall 01), and furthermore Russian control of the Black Sea. That fleet in Ankara is going to be almost useless. Not a good position, even with Greece in hand.

- I thought Russia made out relatively well. Taking Rumania unopposed was a steal (likely some nice diplomacy there, as I said before I'm not reading all the messages) and gaining the Black Sea was icing on the cake. However, Austria did advance into Galicia, and getting bounced in Sweden by Germany wasn't very nice. Indicates a hostile Germany, which you don't want to see as Russia. The key question is where Russia builds in Winter 01: army in Warsaw, or fleet in St. Petersburg? I would guess the former, which is even more good news for England. Let's see.

My build predictions (see how I do):

England
A London
F Liverpool

France
A Paris

Germany
A Kiel
A Munich

Italy
F Naples

Austria
A Trieste

Turkey
F Smyrna

Russia
A Warsaw

[Gustaran]

Here is the current map with slightly changed colors again:

[Wyatan]

IMO, Turkey is dead unless she can get help real soon. Austria has no reason to ally with Turkey (after Russia is dealt with, Austria would be Turkey's only valid target). Russia could still choose to ally with Turkey, but he may want a fast growth to counterbalance Germany's and England's fast growth, and keeping the alliance with Austria is what guarantees the fastest growth. Plus Austria can provide a tad more help vs Germany than Turkey can.
So help has to come from the outer ring, and Turkey has to hold the fort till then.
I find the tactical situation interesting.

First, I'll assume that Turkey built a fleet in Smyrna and F Smy - Aeg.

With Greece cornered (no hurry), Austria might do F Alb - Ion as a protective move vs Italy, but let's assume he'll attack this turn instead (seems the most likely move). A Ser - Gre is a possibility, but I believe that capturing Greece with the fleet would be the stronger move (keeps an eye on the Ionian sea while threatening the Aegan sea).

So :
F Alb - Gre
A Ser S F Alb - Gre

On the Russian front, A Rum - Bul seems a given.

So the Greece army is lost... unless it anticipates its forced retreat : A Gre - Bul
But it gets bounced unless : A Con S A Gre - Bul
Except : F Bla S A Rum - Bul
2 vs 2, the Greece army is bounced and dies... unless F Ank - Bla, cutting the Black sea support.

With those moves, Turkey saves its army and swaps Greece for Bulgary... although keeping it in fall would be a tall order.
The other problem with this set of orders is that they're pretty obvious and can be countered : if Russia orders F Bla - Con instead, cutting the support for the Greece army move, no one gets Bulgary, and Turkey loses her army.

So I would assume F Bla - Con, and get a little more creative :
A Con - Ank
F Ank - Bla
It loses Constantinople (which makes that order set less predictable), but gains the Black Sea !
In Fall A Ank - Con + F Bla S A Ank - Con + F Aeg - Smy is garanteed to regain Constantinople while not losing further centers... and might even end up in the destruction of the Russian fleet.

So :
A Gre - Bul
F Smy - Aeg
A Con - Ank
F Ank - Bla

What do you think ?

[Sullla]

I'm not sure what to make of all that. What I will say is that Germany building an army in Berlin instead of Kiel is a fairly anti-Russian move, and Russia's own build (A Warsaw instead of A Sevastopol) indicates a similar worry about the western neighbors. I do agree that Turkey is in a lot of trouble right now.

[Sullla]

Spring 1902

Orders:


Resolution:


- England is still in really great shape. England will pick up Sweden as a build in the Fall, and cannot be dislodged from that position. England will also support itself into MAO in the Fall, and be able to move the extra fleet out of London into the Channel. The French fleet in Portual will be trapped there permanently now. France is basically dead after 1903. Where England goes after that is a bit murkier, however.

- As I said, France is just about finished. France cannot save Paris this turn (England A Brest supports German A Gascony -> Paris) and will be down to 3 SCs in 1903. With no control of the sea, Marseilles and Iberia will fall shortly thereafter. All that France can do at this point is spin desperately and hope that one of E/G/I stabs one of the others.

- Germany had a really good turn, better than anyone else other than Russia. Germany took Belgium uncontested, and will get Paris in Fall 02 to end up with 7 SCs and a very strong position. After that it gets a lot harder, but opportunities are there. Teams in the middle of the board (Germany, Austria) have the most danger, but also the most chances to get additional supply centers.

- Italy continues to help E/G with few benefits to itself. By sending that fleet further west, Italy is committing to the destruction of France. I'm just not sure what Italy gets out of that though... It seems like England and Germany are getting the lion's share of the spoils. Meanwhile, Italy has been a total non-factor so far in the Balkans, where a very powerful Austria and Russia are developing. If an A/R alliance forms, Italy will be in deep trouble. Not liking Italy's prospects in this game as it moves forwards.

- Austria is in pretty good shape. Austria destroyed the isolated Turkish army (retreat with no eligible locations = destroyed) and looks set to gain Greece in Fall 02. It's not guaranteed though, because of that Italian fleet in the Ionian Sea. Italy has been a real pain so far for Austria, pinning down a lot of units in the west. Overall though, Austria is still growing while two of its key rivals (Italy and Turkey) are not.

- Turkey had a disastrous turn, with Russia presumably stabbing. The army in Greece was destroyed, while Russia convoyed an army across the Black Sea into Armenia. Ooops. A good example of why losing control of the Black Sea is so devastating for Turkey! Ankara cannot be saved in Fall 02 if Russia supports the army into it. Turkey needs to work out something with Austria and/or Italy to avoid destruction now. Holding at 3 SCs in the Fall would be a victory.

- Russia had the best turn on the board, moving to tear out Turkey's guts with the convoy move. Now Turkey is really laid bare, and can be taken apart at leisure. Russia looks safe to get to 6 SCs in the Fall, and be in a very strong position. Russia could then make a deal with Austria and work together to dismantle Turkey, or ally with Germany and go after Austria/England. Many options open here.

The alliances will probably stay mostly the same through this turn. Once France (and Turkey?) dissolve, that's when you'll see things getting reshuffled, and new partnerships forming. Interesting times!

[T-hawk]

- Russia had the best turn on the board, moving to tear out Turkey's guts with the convoy move.

Yeah, I'm trying to figure out what happened with the Russia-Turkey relationship. They intentionally bounced in the Black Sea on the first turn. But then what was Amelia trying to do on turn two? She didn't try to enter it, didn't try to talk Russia out of it, just kind of forgot about it. Russia took it almost accidentally, expecting a bounce. But once in there, Russia figured he might as well take advantage of the situation and turned it into a full blown attack. (Not sure whether to call it a stab since R and T were never really allies in the first place.)