[SPOILER] Comrade Gaspar Arshavin of Russia

[Gaspar]

[Gaspar]

More to come...

I'll probably be somewhat less comprehensive here than I am in my Civ threads, but I'll still attempt to put out there what my thoughts are each turn. As I said in the signup thread, I played one game of Diplomacy in college and only moderately understood it. Still, I think I'll be decent at figuring out the global geopolitical situation, but less good at convincing others. Hopefully it means I avoid the stab, but who knows.

Why Russia? Well, I don't know if there are any Arseblog.com readers here, but I was thinking of Blogs' Arshavin bit, and it'd be kind of fun to occasionally roleplay it here. Also, while I haven't followed the current game beyond the gamestate and lurker threads, strategically, Russia seems quite well positioned. And as it turns out, apparently Russia has the highest win percentage of any country on the board. While my aims are not set yet, I think its more important to find the players you can work with than the country that lines up ideally. Still, its no coincidence that 10 seconds of perusing the interwebs tells me that the RT alliance is so powerful it gets referred to as "Juggernaut." That sounds pretty appealing. Unfortunately, I've quite literally never worked with Jowy, so I don't know how well it will go, but not having to worry about my Southern flank opens a world of possibilities, moreso than even the easy conquering of Turkey with a competent Austria or Italy (Austro-Russian alliance is pretty bad, IMO. Someone has to stab eventually.)

So I'd say my preference according to the map would be to work with:

1. Turkey
   
2. Italy
   
3. Germany
   

I think Germany or France is most likely, however, as I suspect both Bob and Commodore will be easier to deal with than Jowy or TT. I will try, however.

[Gaspar]

Done a bit of diplo. Here's my 30 second synopsis:

Nobody trusts Russia.

This is going to be a challenge.

[Amelia]

I wouldn't trust Russia either after what Regoarrarr did to me

[Gaspar]

So I've had some chats with Jowy, TT, Commodore and Sciz. I'm sure you've read in one of the other players threads the thoughts about Austria, so I won't bore you with that. I will say its unfortunate trust is so hard to earn. I basically proposed Juggernaut almost immediately to Jowy. That was my plan. I would like to DMZ Black Sea so we could focus elsewhere. Unfortunately, Jowy, while savvy, didn't trust my intentions. So I'm sort of forced to do the normal thing, which is bounce there. It also means rather than my hoped for fake alliance with Italy to open things up for Turkey, I'm forced to do a real alliance with Italy against Austria. This is not as good as Juggernaut for 2 reasons: 1. I'm open to a stab as long as Turkey is not fully allied. 2. Italy is a more awkward ally than Turkey, and will arouse German suspicion quickly. Still, I need to walk out of T1 with Rumania and Sweden. Whatever happens beyond that, I don't really care. And I'll ally with the team who proves most honest. But, under no circumstance will I give Turkey the Black Sea.

[regoarrarr]

I wouldn't trust Russia either after what Regoarrarr did to me

I'll be rooting for you!

[Gaspar]

So I think this is the consequence of a noob game, but this Austria situation is getting way too complicated. All we need from Germany is a quiet agreement to not intervene. Or better yet, them heading west as is typical. Instead I just got a message asking if I'll support him into Vienna. Not bloody likely, Kaiser. But TT, while the most loyal ally, cannot be allowed to drive. And he's driving right now. And this is a shit show. If only I could trust Jowy.

Maybe I should dial up sciz... :P

[Gaspar]

I'm talking a lot, but I'm not saying anything. Say something once, why say it again?

Does anyone have a link to a program/website/something that allows for me to shuffle units around on a diplo board for options? I could make this thread mildly more interesting by talking tactics if someone could point me toward one.

[scooter]

http://jdip.sourceforge.net/

This is JDIP - it's what Sareln used to adjudicate Diplo1. I made a sandbox and imitated all the moves so that I could use illustrations for tactics analysis and such in my thread. Pretty simple and works great.

[Gaspar]

http://jdip.sourceforge.net/

This is JDIP - it's what Sareln used to adjudicate Diplo1. I made a sandbox and imitated all the moves so that I could use illustrations for tactics analysis and such in my thread. Pretty simple and works great.

Thanks, scooter. Much obliged. What I decided was to put together a map based on what everyone is telling me. I figured this would be a good way to double check who might be fibbing.



The Russian moves are pretty accurate based on what I would do if everyone was telling the truth. So let's move on.

Let's start with the west. I have no actual idea what those guys are up to. I got a very loose bit of intel that we might be looking at FG v E. I got additional lose intel that E might be steered towards Scandinavia, which is really bad for him if he's also looking at FG. Anyway, I don't really know what's going on here beyond that, France's moves are a total guess. Who cares anyway, anything west of Germany isn't going to impact me right now, and I can analyze what's going on there later when it actually might impact my game.

Let's talk about the Turkey/Balkans situation before we talk about Germany, which is where the key is this turn. As I stated before, I genuinely wanted a DMZ in Bla, but Jowy understandably didn't want to help me out there. So we'll bounce. The other two moves are pretty obvious regardless of his plan so long as his plan isn't "Invade Russia." Puts him in Bul right away, and sets him up for a second Balkan center in the fall, depending on what happens with Sciz. Or it sets him up to try and bounce me out of Rum if he decides to go that route. Regardless, I feel pretty cozy that will be Turkey's opening orders.

Italy - TT, as I said, is all over the place. I believe he genuinely supports the RI alliance, but I also think he's gotten Germany involved when we'd much rather she was headed west. Still, from intel I have, F Nap is going to pick up his freebie in Tun, A Ven is heading to either Tri or Tyr (more on that in a moment) and obviously A Rom moves up to threaten the other centers next turn.

The ciphers here are Germany and Austria. Obviously I don't actually think Commodore is just going to hold in Mun. I believe the current situation is that he's telling both Sciz and TT he's going to support them into Tyrolia. So assuming Sciz believes Commodore, he'll definitely move A Vie -> Tyr. Sciz has also given Jowy strong indication he's aiming for Greece this turn, Which makes F Tri -> Alb a pretty strong guarantee. A Bud -> Ser could just as easily be A Bud -> Rum, and if so, I'm probably trading Rum for Bud in the fall, which means I have to land Swe. But that's getting ahead of ourselves. The question here is what Germany does, not least of which the possibility F Kie is heading towards Bal instead of Hol to pressure Eng.

If Germany:

A Mun S A Vie -> Tyr he can keep his word with Sciz and I still end up in Gal. It puts TT under undue pressure however, assuming TT has ordered A Ven -> Tri in this scenario.

A Mun -> Boh he can assist in the Austrian assault, though he's going to want spoils from it.

A Mun S A Ven -> Tyr then TT & I pressure all 3 Austrian SCs in the fall, and Commodore needs us to get a SC out of this.

Option 3 is probably the best for us, but it also relies on Commodore keeping his word.


Lurkers, more experienced players, am I missing anything here?