[SPOILERS] Woof! Woof! Bad dog! No biscuit! Charadon of the Doviello

[Ellimist]

Okay, I want to start putting some thoughts down about my possible choices after calendar.
My tech rate is terrible so whatever I choose matters a lot more.

At my current tech rate, here is how long it will take me to research:

Research time at 9 bpt
>Exploration - 9 turns
>Festivals - 20 turns
>Animal husbandry - 18 turns
>>>Horseback riding - 39 turns
>Mining - 20 turns
>>>Bronze working - 43 turns
>Ancient chants - 9 turns
>>>Mysticism - 22 turns

I plan to plantation the 3 dye tiles as soon as I can and I'll need exploration at least to hook it up. Once I get 3 plantations up, my tech rate at least will be better.
My biggest dilemma is whether to go mining-bronze or horseback. Right now my inclination is to go for HBR because of goblin fort wolf riders. 5 strength at 3 speed for 60 gold can be decisive.
A copper based strategy is also more risky, I'm not sure how far away I'll have to settle to find it. HBR is just as risky as far as horses are concerned, but I only plan to build a few anyway. I can shut off research as soon as I get it and just collect gold, then hire a wolf rider army.

[Ellimist]

Okay, I just realized I've made a huge mistake. I was too excited to be getting an early second city and I didn't properly evaluate the cost/benefit of whether to raze it. I definitely should have razed the city instead of keeping it. It's completely useless to me in the short term.

That sounds harsh, but it is surrounded by forest and water, and I cannot improve any tiles without a border pop or the mining tech. I can't even build monuments without a tech detour. Basically, the city was okay for the Lanun, plenty of water and corn/silk/crabs in the second ring, but for me it sucks and is going to be an economic drag. The only thing it can do is produce units(which I can't afford) and my capital can do that better.

In other news, I know the approximate location of Ichabod(SareIn told me in his first message), and the soldier count demographics aren't that impressive for anybody, so I'm going to move units in that general direction. Ichabod's power is either 6000 or 8000, and I already know he has a scout in the vicinity of SareIn's razed capital. That leaves a maximum of either 4000 or 6000 worth of power defending his city.
I doubt I'll be able to beat him with what I have now, but the wolves are fast and might be able to surprise him. I should be able to get the bulk of my forces up there in another dozen or so turns.
I'll know more once I find his borders, but if I can find them in the fog and not move into view I'm going to. The "enemy forces appear suddenly out of nowhere" tactic might work a second time. The main question is how many troops I should commit. I can get 2 wolves to him very soon. I can get 2 beastmen and a 4.8 strength wolf up to him a bit slower, and I can't get Lucian to him for quite awhile. I can also produce more units, but my expenses are bad enough and I don't even have calendar yet.

Large Images:

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Serves you right !

(This is the ghost of the Lanun past, whispering guilt into your ears)

[Ellimist]

Hey, any mistakes I can learn from in this game could help us do better in PBEM21.

I would say the primary mistakes involved are:

• I have a tendency to keep cities rather than razing them. I should really evaluate each situation better.
  
• Simple tunnel vision. I made plans and was following them, and the plans were made before I had a full look at the terrain around the city.
  
• I was paying attention to other things more than I needed to, and whether to raze the city wasn't something I properly considered.
  
• The Doviello suck at tech. Normally I don't worry too much about a city requiring additional technologies to become productive, but those technologies have a major opportunity cost when each technology takes this long to aquire.
  

[Ellimist]

Okay, my basic economic plan moving forward will be to improve River Heights considerably. After calendar I'll probably get exploration or possibly ancient chants.
While I wait for calendar, my worker is building a grassland farm, and will probably start another farm on either floodplains or grassland after that.
After calendar, I will switch to agrarianism and probably build another worker and get the dyes improved. I will most likely build a settler shortly after this and found a city here:

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with Innsmouth. I'll probably use it for workers/settlers or something until I can make it useful.

Ichabod will probably cast River of Blood as soon as the "Top Five Cities" tells him we both have size 3 cities. At least the wet corn will help me grow back quickly.

Some C&D stuff regarding the Calabim defenses:

Ichabod and Mist have 8000 and 6000 soldier points.
I know that Ichabod used a scout to raze SareIn's capital. That's 2 power. I believe the Calabim start with a warrior, which is another 3 power. Both Ichabod and Mist have size 2 cities, which grants 1000 soldier points. That adds up to 6 power and Ichabod either has 6 or 8. If he has 8, that means he has an additional scout, it can't be a warrior, and it probably isn't at home. So right now only one (aggressive) warrior likely defends the Calabim capital, but he may build more now that 2 players are gone this early. I'll run some sims and see what amount of forces would be able to take it.

[Ellimist]

Game mechanics questions:

When will I start seeing animal units? I've seen tons of barbarians but no animals.
On quick speed, how many turns is it before I'll start seeing hammer decay?

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Dunno about the animals, but any units left on the queue for >6 turns will start decaying. Kinda annoying, no way to reset the timer.

[Ellimist]

And, I managed to find the Calabim without them seeing me.

Border bleed image, zoomed in:

I can see the border bleed on two tiles, the forest tile with the goblin on it and the forest hill tile east of it. The grassland tile west of the goblin does not show any border bleed, which tells me this must be the corner of their BFC, the square SW-SW from their capital.

The plan of attack:

The two northern wolves can reach the city very soon, depending on terrain. The two beastmen can reach it on turn 23, as shown. The two southern wolves, including the C3 wolf, can probably reach the city at the same turn as the beastmen, depending on terrain. Lucian is too far away. If I maintain the element of surprise, with 4 wolves and 2 beastmen, I think I'll have a shot against 2 warriors, maybe 3.

My finances are terrible:

I've gone to binary research and emphasized commerce in both cities. I don't want to disband troops because I'll need them to have a shot against Ichabod.

Innsmouth sucks:

Yes it is undefended because it hurts me more than it helps me and the troops might be useful elsewhere. And it's working the hill tile this turn because every commerce matters.

Both cities are building beastmen, but I won't let either one finish. I'll hold them in the queue for now. The only things I really want to build don't let the city grow and River Heights needs to grow.

[Ellimist]

So, I just got the save and am about to open it, and it occurs to me that I should probably make contact with Ichabod. He most likely knows I am close to him(through SareIn), and he can see my soldiers count on the demographics screen. He will likely start preparing for me to attack him anyway unless I start lying to him.

I can emphasize the crappiness of Innsmouth(and the Doviello) and my lousy tech rate. I'll try to give him only misinformation that would match what the demographics would be telling him, but other than that, all bets are off.
I hate to be so deceptive like this, but if it increases my chances of him doing a farmers gambit, so much the better. I think I'll also avoid some of the elaborate language I've been using with the others, it might tip him off a little.

I can (rightly) point out that I can't afford the cities I already have, and that his aggressive trait nullifies my main advantage vs him. I can also point out that I don't want to deal with march of the trees, so the elves might be a better target for me before they get that.

If I make contact, I could see his graphs and confirm whether or not he has the city well defended. Plus, he'll be able to see my graphs that way and see that my power is not rising any more since the worldspell. I'd also like to see a bit of his land inside his borders. There's a river that his city is probably founded on. I want to make sure I won't be attacking across it with my current plan(and modify the plan if so.)

I don't think I should choke him, because the more worker improvements he gets completed before I reach him, the better. Plus it would just encourage him to build more troops that I don't want to fight. If my attack reaches him and I don't like the odds, I can do a choke at that point.

One thing I won't do is agree to a NAP. I really think that NAPs are overused at RB, and I don't think I'll ever agree to one without a VERY good reason. This is part of the reason I was planning to avoid contact with him.

EDIT:
What I sent:

[COLOR="Teal"]Greetings from the Doviello.

So I've known your approximate location for awhile(through SareIn), but finally found you this turn. I had made contact with the Lanun and Khazad, but I've been isolated since their mutual exit. If you have any tips for finding Mist, I'd appreciate it as I only have vague directions to him from SareIn("west".)

So let's get right down to business. I know I've probably made an impression already, with the Lanun being destroyed and all that, but I definitely should have followed your lead(with the Khazad) and razed the city. It's nearly surrounded by water with no good tiles I can work without a border pop(and I can't even build monuments.) My tech rate sucked before due to the barbarian penalty, but now it's basically been cut in half. So bravo to you for making the right decision while I made the wrong one.

I know you're probably a little worried about my power rating, but right now half my troops are stuck in the south(where the Lanun were) and half of them are wolves(2 strength and a penalty to city attack.) If I were inclined to rush you, you're aggressive and that negates the only advantage I really have. Even if I could take another city right now, I can't afford it, and I'll be disbanding the wolves (to save on upkeep) once I get enough map knowledge.

I am interested in mutually beneficial deals, and if you have any ideas please let me know. Bob had some ideas regarding Hyborem and I'm now wishing I had listened. I'm aware of the fact that my civ sucks at everything except rushing, and apparently it sucks after a successful rush too. I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that I won't be winning this and I'm basically going for second place at this point. If that means teaming up with you vs Mist(or Mist vs you,) then that's probably what I'll be doing.

Ellimist[/COLOR]

[Ellimist]

Okay, I'm still waiting on the save as well as a response from Ichabod.
Mist updated his thread after my last post, so I will assume that he played his turn and Ichabod has the save.

There is a new possibility regarding Ichabod thanks to the convenient barbarian goblin I noticed earlier.
The Calabim city probably only has one defender. The demographics show 8000 and 6000 soldier points for my two rivals, so one of them has a warrior and a scout(and size 2 city). The other one most likely has 2 scouts and a warrior, and since the elves start with 2 scouts, it's probably them. Either way, both of them probably only have one warrior at home, Bob may have been the only player to take extra precautions by having a second warrior. My capital is currently empty, though I can finish a beastman in one turn if needed.

If I understand the turn order correctly, I move first each turn, then Mist, then Ichabod. The barbarians (I think) move last, so if the barbarian goblin attacks Ichabod in two turns, I'll be next to move and Ichabod's warrior won't get a chance to promote beforehand. What I am planning is to have both my wolves in position to attack the city at that time, just in case the barbarian goblin does significant damage.

I don't know whether the river goes east or north in the fog, so I have the wolves set up so that only one of them will be forced to attack across the river, regardless of its course. One reason I allowed him to see my wolves was so that I could get a look inside his territory. Knowing which direction the river flows is important and I could slightly alter my plan of attack if it flows north instead of east.

Large Image:

My plan will be to set up a sim once I see how damaged the warrior is, and if I like the results of the sim, I'll make an attempt on the city. Alternatively, I can threaten to choke him, allow him to talk me out of it, and hopefully get him thinking I'm not a danger.