[SPOILERS - PBEM19] Huayna Capac of Ottomans - yuris125 & Maestro

[Maestro]

As far as planning goes, I'm still reticent in terms of attacking GES. It feels more like we're trying to stop his empire than we're trying to improve our own. We won't be able to get a full kill, so we're stuck with two unenticing options. Either we take cruddy cities that we can defend (hub) or good cities that we can't (his southern coast).

RL7's score has jumped dramatically with the acquisition of MNG's land. But they've gotta be paying a fortune in maintenance costs until they get a forbidden palace up. I'd be very curious to see their tech situation.

I believe we can draft 3 cities per turn on small. 4 on normal, 5 on huge. Thus a Globe Theater drafting city is stronger on a small map.

So after all that, what do I think we should do? Blergh. I really don't know. I'm reticent to engage in any military actions that don't directly benefit us. To my mind, attacking GES because he's in the lead is an indirect gain. If we can support Commodore vs. GES that'd be great. Or RL7 vs. GES. But here's a crazy idea... could we get GES to attack RL7? Just something to think about.

Having some Janissaries around will give us flexibility, so we don't need to decide immediately. I'm just really not sure what the best path is.

[Maestro]

And in the final self-response post, I realized that I didn't weigh in on the deal with RL7 for galleons. The value of galleons is pretty much based on what we intend to do with them. If we don't have plans to attack soon, then their value to us is much lower. No matter what our plans, I disagree with Seven's claim that 1 hammer is worth 2-3 gold. If he believes that, I'll sell him any dang thing he wants at 3 to 1. 200 gold for a 53 hammer ship just plain isn't going to happen.

Yuri, I think you and I have different perceptions of our relations with RL7. To date, our only deal boils down to RL7 settling in our backyard, and us paying them a bunch of gold and 40 turns of ivory (which they turned into Statue of Zues). Their 53 hammers on that Settler turned into a lot of value. And 200 gold for a 53 hammer ship is hardly the friend price. Basically, I don't think they've cut us much slack at all. It's not that I dislike them; I just don't think they've done much for us.

Anyways, enough rambling. If the decision were entirely up to me, we'd continue to run a skeleton army and do our best to improve our land and tech up. I believe that even if we succeed in slowing GES, it'll just give RL7 the window they need to become the new #1. However, I know your perspective may differ, and it's more your team than mine, so I will happily comply with (and do my best to help with) whatever plan we pick. But those are my thoughts at the moment.

[yuris125]

First, the easy question, the tech path. I would go for Guilds, but bulb part of Printing Press with a Great Scientist on the way, and pick up Printing Press asap after that

As for long-term plans, here is my take:

* Janissaries are the best units of this era. Not attacking with them means losing one of few advantages we have
* We cannot and don't want to attack Commodore
* Our army won't be ready in time to attack MNG
* I wouldn't be averse to attacking either RL7 or GES
* With RL7's Astronomy, it will be very difficult to attack their core. However, attacking them in former MNG's land could be a good idea. I would expect all or most of their army to be there, and we should be able to deal with it with Janissaries. MNG's land also is the most logical addition to our empire
* GES is the easiest target to attack, because of his paper-thin military. If we cancel the NAP, he can witch to Nationalism without anarchy and start drafting. However, this will affect his research potential
* If we do nothing, we won't be able to catch up with GES, and he will easily become Lord Parkin of this game

So, our options are:
1. Stop negotiations with RL7, attack them in MNG's land when the NAP expires, keep decent defences in our own land to defend against anything they can bring from their core
1a. Keep the NAP with GES in place
1b. Cancel the NAP and switch to the state of cold war with GES
Pro: The chance to acquire the best land
Con: Attacking the more powerful opponent. Need to build A LOT of units in the next 8 turns
Note: Option 1b allows us to slow down both primary opponents, but has a risk of a backstab from GES while we're busy with RL7

2. Sign a deal with RL7 (I guess it's realistic to get a 30t NAP + 5 Galleons for 1000g total). Cancel the NAP with GES and attack him in 10t
Pro: We have an ally in RL7 and are protected from a backstab. We slow down GES's progress
Con: GES's land is very difficult to integrate into our empire and protect against his counter-attack

3. Continue to develop in peace
3a. Sign a NAP with RL7 and pay whatever they ask for it
3b. Let the NAP with RL7 expire is they continue to insist on a payment
Pro: We can avoid spending significant amount of hammers on military (especially with option 3a)
Con: We're well behind GES and RL7 in terms of growth and land potential, and won't be able to keep up/catch up with them

Of these, I think the peaceful option is the worst. After putting all this in writing, option 1b seems to be the most attractive, because it allows us to slow down both primary opponents, and gives us a chance to acquire land next door. It is also the most risky one, if RL7 still have sufficient power after the war against MNG, we could quickly follow him

Your thoughts?

[yuris125]

As for the Galleon price, as Seven said in his email, it would've been much cheaper if we had Astronomy or were close to it. We want to delay Astronomy as long as possible, but could use Galleons. That's why the price is so high, and that's why I think it's reasonable (well, maybe slightly above reasonable)

If you think we should go with the peaceful option, of course we shouldn't pay. But the peaceful option is a certain way to finish the game 3rd. Not exactly my ambition

[Maestro]

Turn 104 Played. Very quiet turn; nothing internationally, virtually no changes in builds domestically. MNG did accept the map trade, and only has 2 cities left, so we'll have a good picture of that area moving forward.

It sounds like you want to push for military, which is fine with me. I just wanted to get my thoughts out there first . It would be pretty interesting to attack RL7 with the very galleons they sold us. No matter who we attack, I'd want to feel out Commodore and see if there is a 2v1 opportunity. Cooperation with him would make any invasion much easier.

If we decide to attack GES, there are a couple of things we should leverage for better galleon prices from RL7. First, we're doing them a favor. GES is undoubtedly their best competition for first place. There is no denying that attacking him benefits them. Secondly, they just secured TGLH. It obsoletes with Corporations, but until then there will likely be talk of an embargo. We can promise to keep our borders open with them for some period of time, which is worth a lot in trade route income. We should get some concessions for those things.

From an empire management perspective, we should decide how strongly we're going to commit to an attack, and do so soon. Nationhood + theo will allow us to draft a really nice army very quickly, but we lose the very strong bureau bonus. Also, we should decide if we're going to keep building universities now, or wait for oxford until post war.

[Maestro]

Turn 105 was also rather quiet.

• Founded Radio Dacha. Maintenance rose by 18 gpt. We're up to 17 cities now
  
• GES is researching full bore on something, to the tune of 1404 GNP. I would presume that this would eliminate any questions about who is in the lead right now.
  
• Finished a couple of Janissaries. More on the way. What ratio of Janissary to catapult do we want?
  
• Received a Hindu Missionary from Commodore. He's heading to Ultra.
  
• I whipped the Granary at Next FM even though the chop 'finished' it. That's because I calculated that the overflow would be perfect to finish lighthouse in 1 turn after granary. I checked after hitting end turn and was right: 41/40 on lighthouse.
  
• Did some tile micro, most notably between Best and Rock, to keep them working improved tiles. We may need another worker or two. Actually, we definitely needed another worker or two, but needed them 20 turns ago . Not sure if they'd be as useful now.
  

Some pics:

[Maestro]

Played turn 106.

• The only interesting thing internationally was the capture of Chartres by Commodore.
  
• Lyons is MNG's only remaining city. I have all of our power heading toward Maximum, just in case we do want to go for Lyons. If not, well they'll be centrally located for loading into galleons, if that every becomes an option
  
• Dropped research to 50%, picking up Machinery and 45 gold.
  
• Thought for a long time about revolting to Nationhood + Theo. I decided to put it off for 1 turn. We just have a lot of tiny cities (under size 6) that won't be able to draft. Also, we don't have a specific NAP-cancellation plan with Commodore. We should decide about this very soon.
  
• Building two strategic canal forts
  
• Even the few units we've constructed have caused our power graph to rise sharply. If we start drafting, we'll cream everybody else's power graph.
  

[yuris125]

Diplo update. Almost for the whole time I was away, we've been going back and forth on extending our NAP with RL7, and buying Galleons from them. Some of these negotiations were mentioned in this thread, but they weren't that exciting to post all messages we sent to each other

To reiterate briefly, Seven initially asked 600g for a NAP extension, without specifying the term or any other details. Later, he added that they could sell us Galleons if we sign the NAP. When we started to discuss the Galleons price, Seven asked for 200g per Galleon, which seemed a little too high to me, and bizarrely high to Maestro When I tried to get concessions like extending the NAP for free and/or reducing the price of Galleons to 170g, we received this mail from GES

Let's ignore the galleons for the moment because you're not getting any if we're attacking you.

I'm not sure you realize how much trouble you're in if we don't renew the NAP. We just (basically) eliminated a player, and we have a high military and the only navy in the game. For 300g I'll extend it 30t. Another 150g and we'll back off on Lyons for 10t, letting you presumably take it.

This was exactly on the turn when GES's GNP skyrocketed. We felt Seven was bluffing anyway, there wasn't much advantage for him to attack us. We decided to call him:

This deal has been a dominating subject in our discussion with Maestro for the last few days. I have to say we're not convinced our position is as bad as you're saying

I guess there's only one way to find out, and if you're set on attacking us if we don't extend the NAP, then so be it. However, I can promise that we will prepare adequate defences, and you won't be able to steamroll over us

The only player who will ultimately benefit from your attack on us is GES. Did you notice his GNP in the last few turns, when he turned on research? The longer he is left in peace, the lower the chance to stop him will be

So, there are two options. We can put our differences aside, stay on friendly terms, and work together to slow GES down. Or we can engage in a prolonged war, which you might eventually win, but whether it will allow you to win the game is doubtful

I have to say that asking for such a significant amount of money for NAP extension didn't look friendly. If we decide to work together, we would be happy to let it go. However, I firmly believe that signing a NAP and working together to bring GES down will benefit both our teams (maybe it will even be more beneficial to you, because you're clearly the next contender for the victory). Therefore, extension of the NAP will have to involve no payment or other concessions from our team

After this, Seven agreed to extend the NAP for free. Then we met in chat, and hammered out a final deal

* You send us 5 Galleons within the next 6 turns (T107-T112)
* We pay you 100g as soon as possible
* We send you a Great Scientist, which should arrive to you around T120
* We extend the NAP until T141, and maintain open borders until at least T136, both inclusive
* We do not use the Galleons against you at least until we can build a Galleon or Transport ourselves
* We abandon our claim for Lyons
* This deal is to be kept secret from GES

Maestro wasn't sure a Great Scientist is worth 4 Galleons (well, 4 and a bit, because the gold payment for the 5th Galleon is lower than discussed earlier). However, I do believe these Galleons could be the decisive advantage in our attack, and in these circumstances the price didn't seem too high. I was actually willing to agree to a GS + 150g, but Maestro started to push hard, and finally got Seven to drop the price further

Seven actually said this at one point

btw: GES has accused me of being a really tough negotiator in this game I can tell he hasn't done much diplo with you

I found it funny. Especially because it was before Maestro joined the chat and started pushing for an even better bargain

[yuris125]

Quickly checked the save, didn't play - can't play a turn in a hurry at this stage

We got our first Galleon. Don't forget to send 100g to RL7. Also, take care to send a NAP cancellation message before sending the save

GES discovered Gunpowder. Bad, but not too bad. We should be able to deal with Muskets, he probably won't get to Rifling, and he doesn't have Construction (!), so we won't face many Cats

Other things of note are that MNG is still alive, and RL7 started a GA and switched to Bureau and Free Market

[yuris125]

OK, here is how I want to attack GES

In the hub, we place 2 decoy stacks. The size of these stacks will depend on how many units we can produce (keep in mind that we can't build Knights yet). GES has visibility on Love Radio, so for sure he will have to react



With Commodore also distracting him in the west, we can expect his eastern border to be lightly defended. Especially because he knows we don't have Astro, and won't expect an naval attack

The main strike:



I would definitely expect to capture at least 2 cities, including his Moai city, before he can strike back

I would consider researching Engineering before Guilds, to make the logistics easier

Thoughts?