September 8th, 2011, 11:35
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Meiz Wrote:Every post so far is in line with the way they have played as villagers so far.
so far = previously
(sorry for the spam )
September 8th, 2011, 11:36
Posts: 9,706
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Joined: Dec 2010
There are a couple of players that aren't making much sense...
*Sareln was (and still is) voting for Gaspar to be mayor when Gaspar was voting to lynch Sareln... I first thought it was a crosspost (because Gaspar's lynch vote and Sareln's mayor vote were pretty close one to the other), but later Sareln revoted Gaspar after a joke with Lewwyn. Sareln's play seemed strange since the beggining, but I think I'm a little biased against him, so I decided to wait more. But this is too strange. Maybe it is just a villager that doesn't have enough time to play, but he actually reacted fast enough when accused.
Now that I think of it, Sareln's post where he voted Gaspar could be a pre-made post after some players called him on the random mayor vote thing (his first post). He said he was going to pay more attention to the mayor vote, then he voted for a player that wanted to lynch him...
*I can't understand Rowain... Maybe he's joking when he says he doesn't have any reasoning behind his votes, but I can't read those comments as jokes (Lewwyn does something similar too, but at least it's obvious that he's joking). Why would you do this? I'm curious to know the reason behind your votes, Rowain, and its frustrating to read that kind of comment...
I don't have enough to vote in someone after Catwalk's and Meiz's explanation. My suspects against Erebus aren't enough and I liked his last post.
I don't know TT or Injera, but I would expect TT to be more active if he was a wolf. Maybe he's just waiting to see the bandwagon dissolve by its own, but its too risky to do as a wolf (what Gaspar said is a possibility too, but I don't think it's likely). As for Injera, I don't see a problem with the no vote. And I don't think the other wolves would let Injera keep on attacking Zakalwe after getting some votes (there isn't enough new players to not have a experienced werewolf in the group), so it seems more likely that he's a villager.
I'm actually leaning towards voting Sareln, but I'm not that sure about it. In the end, most of my suspicions can be explained by lack of internet access. The problem is that he reacted pretty quickly when he was suspected and voted, which seems strange.
September 8th, 2011, 11:37
Posts: 12,335
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Cross-posted my last post with your second post, but I'm almost ready to go to bed.
And my vote is on Injera not Sareln, Meiz. I think I've been perfectly clear about every vote I have done and why I've voted for who I've voted for. Except maybe Injera, but I thought that the "no vote"" thing was pretty sel explanatory.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
September 8th, 2011, 11:39
Posts: 6,457
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Joined: Aug 2004
zakalwe Wrote:In his gambit post, the part about not wanting to play wolf again rang true to me. So how would he react to being a wolf for the third time in four games? Not by ragequitting, perhaps, but by trying a gambit, for fun? Possibly. We know he is devious and can pull off gambits, as he proved in WW5. I agree with this argument. I can easily imagine he'd get quite a kick out of succesfully playing a wolf who confessed on day one, if he's a bit of a prankster. I'm only going on hearsay here, but it sounds plausible. I don't blame him (if he's a wolf), it's not a bad play at all and it would be a whole lot of fun if it works out. I read up a little on wolf confessions, and in game 3 (which uberfish participated in, as a villager) Fire&Ice (also villager) responded to day 1 accusations by voting himself wolf. Votes against him were promptly moved elsewhere and he wasn't lynched until day 5. This demonstrates that yelling "I'M A WOLF!!" can in fact deflect attention.
Switching my mayor vote to zakalwe, as Meiz seems to be convinced uberfish is merely a joking villager. He's a wolf in fool's clothing!
September 8th, 2011, 11:41
Posts: 12,335
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Joined: Jan 2011
Ichabod keep Sareln in mind for next lynch if you can't get a critical mass today. I'm still pretty suspicious of him.
Still thinking about my final vote before bed.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
September 8th, 2011, 11:42
Posts: 739
Threads: 6
Joined: Sep 2004
Lewwyn Wrote:Hey Roland, can we lynch Meiz? Please? He's totally a wolf! I wanna lynch him! Meiz, Meiz, Meiz! ROLAND PLEASE!
Psh. What the hell do you need me for? Lynch whoever you want - you always do! :neenernee
Seriously though, as much as I'm undecided on Meiz at the moment, he does seem to be tripping the usual Villager meter for me. Clue me in on what I'm missing? He just doesn't seem much different than any other time I've seen him play, so I'm not seeing the 'Wolf vibes in him.
September 8th, 2011, 11:42
Posts: 6,457
Threads: 134
Joined: Aug 2004
Erm... switching my MAYOR vote to zakalwe and keeping my lynch vote on uberfish
September 8th, 2011, 11:46
Posts: 821
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zakalwe Wrote:I'd be very interested to hear what others think of this. (Seeing Injera's post in the preview, I'm guessing he won't like it.)
I really am open to arguments that uberfish is a wolf; it's the highlighting of uberfish as a bad villager that raises my suspicions.
Meiz Wrote:First of all, what's with all these "I believe he probably is a villager, but I'll still vote him" - comments?
Well, it's true for a lot of people! With the about a quarter wolves, unless you start to think someone is twice as likely as the others to be a wolf, they're still probably a villager. At the end of the day, though, you gotta vote for someone.
September 8th, 2011, 12:00
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Joined: Aug 2006
Lewwyn Wrote:I think I've been perfectly clear about every vote I have done and why I've voted for who I've voted for. "Perfectly clear" is a bit overboard . You do a lot of bandwagoning yourself, so it seemed odd that you're only comment for suspecting Sareln was his bandwagon on TT. Any more points why you feel he is guilty? I doubt you would be swinging today, so have a good sleep on it . I'm especially willing to give you a break if uber and TT come up as wolves, since you've had them both listed.
September 8th, 2011, 12:04
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Alright, I've eaten my lunch and collected my thoughts a bit better, so here's a few. After clearing my head and thinking it through, I've figured out who I'm going to vote for, although it may not be shocking necessarily. Some other comments I'd like to make first though. I suppose the smart thing to do would be to lay low while votes left me, but I'm too stubborn to do something like that. Here goes.
1. I don't like the votes on Injera. I'm a big believer in trying not to lynch/kill new guys on the first day if at all possible. By all means, keep an eye on him, but it's just not fun for new guys to get to play for all of 48 hours before they get kicked out. Since I don't see a NEED to lynch him, let's let him live at least for today. I'm serious about this btw - if this means that those on Injera jump back onto me, so be it. I'd just rather see the new guy get to play a bit, even if that means I get the axe as a result.
2. Twinkletoes is somewhat on my radar. I don't have any specific reason that others haven't already stated, so I won't rehash that. However, I'm not going to vote for him.
3. I'm voting for uberfish. The case against him is not airtight by any means, but it's day1, so this seems as good a chance as any.
Basically, despite what conclusions you draw from his "gambit" - his move makes a lot of sense as a werewolf actually. Consider this scenario:
Uberfish realizes he's a wolf yet again. The wolf email thread gets going, and he tells the other wolves that he's going to mix things up a bit, and explains his post he's going to drop in the thread. He tells the other wolves to more or less lay low. They can't all stay silent, but if they make comments on uberfish's post, make sure they are generic ones. The results of such a gambit would be a variety of reactions - some would believe him, some maybe not, some would possibly get mad at a quit, etc. Then, he could reveal the "gambit" and cast suspicion on a bunch of villagers that reacted in more noticeable ways. It's easy to come up with generic criteria that matches a few villagers. He came up with 3, and they were basically the 3 possible ways to react to it 1) believe it and push to lynch him = eager wolf, 2) don't believe it = wolf with knowledge, 3) wait and see = wolf afraid to commit. I mean, that's basically the only real ways you CAN react to it right??
So really, it's a shockingly convenient opening play for a wolf. I do think the case could be made that uberfish may just be a normal wolf without powers, as it's less of a risk - however a wolf is a wolf at this point.
Also, it really fits with the uberfish wolf style. I've played as a wolf with uberfish twice, and I've seen him play wolf at least one other time, and he's always happy to try something crazy. I'm pretty sure I remember once our wolf team had to talk him out of role-claiming seer or something crazy like that because he was a little too eager to do so and it wasn't necessary yet. So really, why not try a gambit like this? He's basically tried everything else. If it works, he could be wildly successful, dumping a bunch of suspicion onto innocent villagers (possibly a power-role or two if he's lucky), and getting others to mostly trust him. If it fails, meh, who cares, was worth a shot and it was fun.
FWIW, I still don't believe for a second the theory that he's a wolf who was serious in that post and the wolves talked him out of it. If Gaspar did that, I might believe it ( ), but not uberfish.
So that's about all that makes sense to me.
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