Werewolf 7 game thread

[Sareln]

If you open it with Wordpad it works fine (no clue what the name of that is in Portuguese, though.)

And wow, this file is really helpful for reviewing things Sareln. I think I'm going to start making one like this for my own use.

Yeah, I found it helpful to start organizing my impressions when I read everything. Do keep in mind that those aren't verbatim copies/simplifications of each post, but rather what I thought was the important part of each post.

[Ichabod]

I was thinking about the game on way home and as such am going to post here before playing my PBEM turns (Sorry, Commodore.) I think realistically the best thing to do is throw out some assumptions that have been made and "start over." Now I don't mean start over completely - we have 2+ days worth of data now. But I mean start over on the who's a wolf/who's a villager bandwagon. In one sense it makes it easier to identify irregularities now that the power roles are dead/have been used. Personally, I'm always wary of those sorts of players who have behaved highly out of character because in previous games we've seen this is also how village power roles behave.

So we have 12 remaining players: Gaspar, Ichabod, zakalwe, Serdoa, Meiz, Roland, scooter, Injera, Erebus, Catwalk, Jkaen, Twinkletoes. Of those 12 there are 4 wolves and 8 innocents. Picking at random gives us a 1 in 3 chance of hitting a wolf. Not bad, actually, if we had a bit more leeway, but we don't. So how can we narrow it down? Well, from my experience wolves generally follow one of 3 types: Obvious, lousy wolf (i.e. me the last two games), unavailable, low-content wolf (i.e. Molach or pling from the last two) and the deep cover wolf, usually requiring a scry or endgame to find (MJW last game.) I don't think we have anyone in the first category, as we'd not be down 2 mislynches now if that were the case. So let's look at potential members from the other categories:

I found this to be a very good post. There were plenty of helpful posts today, from a lot of different players. Just to respond to your comments about me, Gaspar, I think you are right about them. I'm having difficulty to find proper time to play this. I can do mostly in some windows and I have a lot of text to catch up when I'm able to. Since, I don't like to post without reading everything that has been said, I'm posting very few posts. But I try to adress all the things I think are important on them. And I have a very hard time making decisions, especially when there's little reliable information. What to make of this is, obviously, something I can't answer.

No, I don't think villagers should always try to appear as honest as possible. Generally, yes. I don't think a play like this is unwise, or even uncommon. IMO it can often be wise to lay low with an accusation, once you accuse someone he becomes wary and can change his playing style to shore up weaknesses. If you get a suspicion on someone and can keep quiet about it, it will sometimes be confirmed later on. And I do think it makes good sense to make an active effort to get a few allies early on, if you have reason to believe you can do so succesfully. Of course, that's the case whether you're a villager or a wolf.

As I mentioned earlier, I didn't have any particular suspicions against you. You were in my neutral camp, I buddied up with you because it seemed like a smart thing to do. I still maintain it was a smart thing to do.

When I started reading today's posts I thought my read on Catwalk that I posted yesterday was very accurate. This would be a certain type of play that I'd never think of doing (and a play that would be unusual to be made by the majority of the players), for example. But after the following post by Gaspar (and other from Injera, if I remember correctly) and some later comments by catwalk, I had to question this assumption a bit. One thing is a different style of play that, like I've said in my previous post (and Catwalk said too), is consistent. But some things Catwalk say/do are nearly chaotic and I can't say that something chaotic is consistent. So i'm having second thoughts about Catwalk.

Here's Gaspar post:

The reason why its bad, Catwalk, is because we're supposed to be trying to find wolves, not trick villagers. And I don't entirely buy your ex post facto reasoning - I think you got called on your snuggling to zakalwe and are trying to explain it away as clever play. I think you tried to cozy to zakalwe because you believe him to be a village power player and you're seeking acceptance this game, as much as you're seeking victory, due to your actions from last game. Sorry if that's harsh, but its what I read from your play. And I recognized your inappropriate cuddling from minute one - I tried the exact same play in WW5.

I'm not saying I think you're a wolf - though I'm also not saying I think you're innocent. I'm not one to hedge a lot, but I'm completely on the fence with you. Primarily because I think external factors to the game actually make as much sense as wolvishness to describe your behavior. Still, I think you should stop the fancy play and get to the analysis. You seem a bright enough player - just too cute for your own (and the village's) good.

I'll bite on your question, though. If zak were a wolf, I'd guess strongly that the rest of the pack was TT, Sareln and yourself. Why? Well, the little battle with TT could be reminiscent of the zak/scooter gig in WW3. zak let Sareln off the hook easily, and as said, I think you've cozied up to him for different reasons than you say. Still, I'm not convinced zak is a wolf (I have Serdoa's post open in a separate window, I'm eating it in small chunks because its a lot.) I'm even less convinced he's a great target today. But if he were a wolf, that would be my guess as to the rest of the pack.

About this, scooter:

This gets repeated a lot against me, but I don't understand it. I'm accused of voting for Uberfish on "weak evidence" - really?? It was Day 1! Everyone was voting on weak evidence. I mean Ichabod, I surely had more basis for my Uberfish vote than your throwaway vote. And many people felt Erebus was guilty for the same exact reasons as me, but I'm the one with "weak evidence" and not the others. This feels like a huge double standard.

You are right. It was a bad argument, just like the one with Sareln, because it was also made on a false assumption (that we could have had a pretty good case on day 1). But your votes were still made in similar strategic moments, and that still makes me find you suspicious.

tl;dr of that "wall of text": zak is a wolf who is good at deceiving

btw: I know that nobody wants to read that wall of text. And for exactly that reason, zak is getting away with it. It is easy to look at Jkaens post and formulate an opinion. It is easy to look at TTs posts and do the same. Looking at zaks post? Whoa, the sheer amount of it makes you not want to do it. You just listen to that little voice that tells you "he had some longish posts, he accused some people, he is zak, sleep on".

Serdoa, I agree that Zakalwe play is not as clearly a villager play like I have assumed. I liked your post (the big one, I'm using this to adress it) and agree about what you said about the "little voice". But I have tried to read everyone's post so far with the less bias as possible. And I felt that Zakalwe seemed to be playing like a villager. I think gaspar said it pretty well when he said that if you make such an anlysis like you did, you'll probably find the same results with all the players that talk a lot.

But I know this isn't an argument to dismiss your theory. I read your post, but not with the due commitment (I haven't gone back to read Zak's posts yet, for instance). I'll try to do that tomorrow, but I'm too tired right now. But I want to vote today for the player i suspect the most, because I don't think we can afford another mislynch. And, right now, I don't think this player could be Zakalwe. But i'd like to hear more from Zak before the end of the day. Is it possible for you to comment on the players, Zakalwe? Especially on TT (I'm sorry if you already presented your case against him, but I can't remember right now), Catwalk, Scooter and Sareln, but other players would be nice too.

If you ever wonder why I find it hard to contribute here's a good one for you. I started doing a summary of every post after Erebus' hanging and I'm still only on Post 679... after a couple of hours. Just got past Ichabod's post about every player and am very confused as to why he doesn't understand my votes. I thought that I had explained my Mayor votes and Lynch votes at various points, but I guess I'll put them down here again.

Day 1 Mayor: (Scooter -> No Vote -> Gaspar -> Lewwyn -> Gaspar -> Serdoa)

I started off with a random vote, which was retracted after folks started pointing out how important mayor would be in this game. I switched my vote to Gaspar b/c I like how he plays and recognized that all his vote on me for day 1 was asking me to say something, which I did. The Lewwyn vote was the tweak Lewwyn since we were in an argument at that point about illogic, and the vote tally doesn't record it but I vote again for Gaspar in spoilers on the same post I vote for Lewwyn. More annoyed at Lewwyn than anything else at that point. Mayor race then looks to be a 3-way between Gaspar, Lewwyn, and Serdoa. I don't trust Lewwyn to make good choices, but Gaspar doesn't seem to be able to show up for the end of the day and I'm okay with Serdoa being mayor, so I switch to Serdoa.


Day 1 Lynch: (Roland -> Scooter -> TT -> Uberfish)

Once again, a random vote for Roland, then a tactical vote for scooter to throw some pressure (joining Gaspar), then a vote for TT after scooter provides some answers, and then TT gives a mostly-satisfactory answer towards the end of the day. With a decent answer from TT, I don't want to accidentally lynch him and uberfish has stubbornly refused to expand his defense beyond: "You're all stupid, raise your game". Hoping something would pop out as his predicament became more clear, but nothing came of that. Uberfish is lynched and is innocent.

Day 2 Lynch: (JKaen -> Erebus)

Vote JKaen in an attempt to elicit any participation from him. Scooter/Roland or someone similar tells me that you can't squeeze blood from a stone, especially when the stone isn't online. I'm trying to figure out who to switch to when Erebus starts trying to cast aspersions on me with his "just asking questions" line about the vote tallies. I think that's strange for a villager to ever do, and so vote for Erebus. I check in later in the day, see that Erebus hasn't really shaken my "Why would you do something like this" question that came with my vote, and so stay on him. I'm not present for the last couple of hours but apparently I missed some craziness.

I hope that answers Ichabod's questions about my voting record.

Alright. Back to reading.

The troika of the not-talking-much?

This took too long to compile together. Just a short summary of every post since Erebus was hung (attached).

I think that the thought that there are a number of quiet wolves is worthwhile.

I think voting against Zakalwe today is a waste of time. Spends too much energy to accomplish something that is uncertain, when it will become more certain as we make it through more days.

I know that voting against me is also a waste of time. Meiz seems to know that I'm innocent as well. I don't quite know what to make of that.

Serdoa v. Zakalwe and Meiz v. Scooter won't get us anywhere today. They sound a lot like personal vendettas for now. On the plus side, these are also conflicts that will clarify themselves with more time I think.

JKaen is very probably mod-killed unless he shows up.

Of the 7 that are left, after you exclude Serdoa, Zakalwe, Meiz, Scooter, JKaen, you have the following:

Gaspar, Ichabod, Roland, Injera, Catwalk, Twinkletoes, Sareln.

I'm the one talking, and I know I'm innocent, so I'm going to throw myself off that list mmkay?

Now it's Gaspar, Ichabod, Roland, Injera, Catwalk, Twinkletoes.

Thoughts on these remainders:

• Gaspar - Still in his reasonable mode. Either he's learned to be a better wolf or he's innocent. Inclined towards innocence here.
  
• Ichabod - most of his arguments against me seem to miss answers I've already written. I hope he sees my voting logic post and my clarification w/ scooter about my reasoning for Erebus on Day 2 and backs off. I don't think he's doing it on purpose, that would be silly and incriminate himself if he was. Keeping an eye on that.
  
• Roland - still writes books, but hasn't thrown any obvious tells near as I can tell. We'll leave him alone for now. Even if he's innocent I could see him lasting quite a while as wolves chew through other players first.
  
• Injera, making good sense for why Zakalwe is probably innocent. Notes something interesting about TT"s defensive behavior (focusing on the loudest voice probably). Linking the three of TT/Catwalk/Serdoa is probably a false lead IMO.
  
• Catwalk - inclined to think he's just a poor villager. I do think villagers (sans power roles) should be as honest and forthright as possible. Buddying up to try and hide in another person's wake as a villager doesn't make much sense to me. He could also be a really bad wolf though. If he were, that would probably clear Zakalwe.
  
• TT - Almost as quiet as I am, inclined to buy his busy excuse. His focus on Zakalwe is understandable. Villager maxim is that when you find yourself on the block you work to get yourself off of it mainly through offense. The village needs to lynch someone so it isn't just enough to make yourself invalid and hope the mob moves on.
  

Lynch vote and reasoning in another post, so hopefully they're read together, instead of only taking my vote paragraph and thinking I didn't justify it :neenernee

I really like these posts, Sareln. I think they adress much of my concerns. I still want to read your attached file, but it'll have to wait until tomorrow too. I'm going to think about my vote during the night and try to give more comments tomorrow, when I'm not so tired. But I'm liking the tone of your responses and the little I read on your file goes accordingly to what you said on the first day about showing up later with more content.

I'd like to hear about the people who suspected and are voting for Sareln what do they think about him after these posts. I'm not so confident anymore to vote for Sareln and i'd like to hear what others think.

[Gaspar]

I think Sareln sounds earnest in these posts. What that means at this point I don't know. I've seen moments where Sareln seems like village Sareln, and I've seen moments where scooter sounds like village scooter. I haven't seen that sort of behavior from either TT or Jkaen, though in fairness, I've never played with TT and WW1 is a billion years ago. Jkaen, obviously, hasn't actually contributed anything village or wolf, so it's literally not possible to have a read on him.

The thing is - and maybe this is my bias showing - but anyone can come up with one shining villager post if given enough time. You have to take the sum total of actions into account, unless someone falls victim to a gotcha moment. On the basis of that, I'm still quite uneasy with all four of the relative "non-contributors."

I guess since I've seen a moment from both Sareln and scooter, even if I'm not willing to let them fully off the hook it seems to make sense to put Twinkletoes89 on it.

[scooter]

As I said earlier, I'm dropping the vote on Sareln. Temporarily I'll set myself to no vote. I have an idea or two but it's been a busy night and I don't have time to check a few things first. So I'll vote in the morning once I check a few old posts as I want to make sure I'm not misremembering.

[zakalwe]

Scooter, here is the explanation I gave earlier for my feelings towards Uberfish on day 1.

My feelings about Uberfish progressed like this. First, when he made his opening post, I thought he must be a wolf since it seemed like a ludicrous village play. Then he made a fairly convincing "reveal" post, stating how he intended to use his gambit to catch wolves, so I figured he was a villager. As I then started realizing how many of the people "implicated" by his gambit were in fact likely to be innocent, like me, my feeling that his ploy was really bad villager play grew. He then failed to follow up his gambit with any actual wolf hunting, and just kept focusing on me with what I thought of as poor arguments. When he constructed an apparent contradiction out of my actions, which for me was a big wolf tell, my alarm bells started ringing, and I figured: Uberfish is a good player; why would he play such a bad villager game? After mulling that over for a while, I decided to follow up on my hunch that he was a wolf with an actual vote. As that turned into a landslide, he really didn't defend well at all, while my second suspect TT did defend pretty well. I saw no better lynch option, although I was watching because I partly expected him to claim a power role. I figured his play might make sense as a villager if he had a power role as life insurance.

Some questions:

Catwalk: Yesterday you wanted us to look into the theory that the lynching of Uberfish was a move to save TT. Do you no longer suspect TT now?

Roland: As far as I can see, your only reason for voting TT today was to put pressure on him (even though you wrote another overly verbose treatise to justify it). What are your thoughts about TT now that we've heard from him? And why are you so certain that I am innocent?

[zakalwe]

For those who think Scooter is innocent; if he is, then my actions at the end of day 2 aren't very incriminating. If I were a wolf, don't you think I would allow myself to be persuaded to vote for Scooter, if he is innocent? That would still leave Erebus as a severely untrusted villager, for a possible second mislynch today (or later).

[Serdoa]

For those who think Scooter is innocent; if he is, then my actions at the end of day 2 aren't very incriminating. If I were a wolf, don't you think I would allow myself to be persuaded to vote for Scooter, if he is innocent? That would still leave Erebus as a severely untrusted villager, for a possible second mislynch today (or later).

So, what you say is that when scooter is innocent then you are innocent?

[Roland]

Random thought: What do you guys think about having the vig claim now?

I've heard a lot worse ideas thus far. Not exactly my area of expertise, but I'd say unless they're on the hook to being lynched they should remain silent. Just my two cents.

tl;dr of that "wall of text": zak is a wolf who is good at deceiving

btw: I know that nobody wants to read that wall of text. And for exactly that reason, zak is getting away with it.

Read it. Digested it. Not sure, to be honest. It's a great deal to take in, and it's a rather mind-warping theory. That's not to say it isn't plausible, but... I don't know. I'm hesitant to just jump on board, not least because of my personal bias up through now. While I don't normally find these sorts of clash of wills to be overly constructive, I must say you did put a huge amount of effort into this Serdoa. I respect you, and your insights. I'm just not prepared to make the plunge with you. I really need to sleep on this one, and see what develops.

Catwalk is tripping my radar once again, and I can't decide if it's because he's just that BAD of a Villager, or he's an overconfident 'Wolf who's not afraid to show it anymore. I've been trying to get my bearings on him, but it's so cloudy. I feel like, personally, I'm having an off night. I'm just not as sharp, nor as confident as I felt throughout Day 2. Gaspar would probably tell me I'm losing my backbone, but at this point I'm nervous about making the wrong move, so I'm holding myself back a bit.

That being said, I don't think today is best used going after the more vocal villagers. zakalwe is going to keep talking and we'll continue to get better reads on him. I don't think that's true with the quieter players, and I'm very confident there's a wolf to be found there.

Again, not to be parroting other people, but this idea has been floating around in my head for much of the day. I won't say it's a terrible idea to challenge zakalwe given the mountain of evidence (and even that's... a bit subjective) against him, but it's such a big turnaround I have a hard time swallowing it in one go.

We don't have time for this anymore. We're at 8-4 right now. We lynch a villager today, someone dies tonight, and we're at 6-4 with a double-voter still out there... And we'd have to lynch 4 straight wolves. We CAN'T mislynch today. So "lynch and find out based on alignment" is not an option for anyone.

Scooter, honestly, this is not a constructive argument. From my perspective Meiz has been trying to do exactly what he states: get you to open up, and just answer him. This childish "I'm not dealing with you anymore" is not the way to go. It's the same BS that almost lost the game for the Village in WW1 between zakalwe and Twinkletoes. I'd really like to hear what you have to say about it, but I already know your response, so don't even bother. If you're a 'Wolf you won't be able to hide, and if you're a Villager... well, we've hung innocents for less than that, but at least you're still participating overall.

I am (once again) unsurprised to see that zak resorts to going after me now his other favourite targets Rowain and MNG have met their unfortunate demises. Once again he has tunnelled in on me and I have not seen one good reason from him to suspect me any more than his other suspects. Also he says I'm playing differently than WW1 and to an extent he's right. I grew to hate WW1 and I am doing as much as I can to avoid being so emotionally invested in this game and I am trying to stick to my own logic or gut feeling if logic is failing me.

Call it empathizing based on my own experiences, or an emotional hunch like I had with Erebus, but this bit right here is swinging me even more towards Villager for Twinkletoes. He's not cleared in my mind, but he's definitely striking me as more innocent than guilty, and I think the few things I've suspected about him can be chalked up to this (changing his behavior so he doesn't get so burnt out on this game; I think I may be feeling a bit burnt out myself at this point, although I could just be tired), as well as his initial response to uberfish. At first it struck me as typical Twinkletoes, much as I loathed it. Then I think I let my biased view of it (lynching a Villager just because he made a bad call? I don't agree with that) color his stance, and it made me doubt him. I just can't seem to find much to suspect about him other than him being quiet, though. There's nothing glaring or obvious about it - it's all very subtle, but it's there all the same. I'm going to follow my gut on this one, despite him being a top suspect for several people.

@ Scooter, Ichabod too since I remember seeing you state a similar idea upthread, I think you're either mischaracterizing or lopping off a very important part of my post voting for Erebus.

The irony here is that this was part of what's been nagging in the back of my mind about you, giving me just one more tiny reason to suspect you. I read that exchange the first time, and even now it still sticks in my mind. I react the same way every time I read it - it almost feels forced. I'm not even sure if that's how I want to say it - probably not. What I mean is, the turn-around from defensive to offensive just... didn't feel "right" to me. It didn't feel Villagerish. Normally I'm inclined to ignore such minor things as hearsay and jumping at shadows (and we've had FAR too much of that this game), but since the list of suspects is dwindling - as are our chances of pulling this off - I'm finding those little hunches to be worth more and more.

So, what are the other reasons for suspecting Sareln and TT? Once again, not counting the quiet play? Honestly hoping some answer here.

Twinkletoes I think - no, I feel - is innocent. Nothing concrete (not as solid as Serdoa or Injera, nor even you), but given his low post count a little has to go a long way. He just feels more Villager than 'Wolf to me, especially with his comments about not wanting to get burnt out. If he was a 'Wolf, I wouldn't expect him to care that much about being invested in the game - especially with the position the Village is in right now. Given that, why would he even bother mentioning it if he was a 'Wolf? It's too hard to fake, IMO, and not even worth the risk of putting oneself out there that much unless you truly mean it. I can only see a Villager doing that, so that's why I feel he's innocent.

Sareln, on the contrary, just never feels all the way there. I'm sure he's trying - it's just a question of what his intentions are when he is. So far he hasn't convinced me of his innocence - which isn't the same as convincing me of his guilt, per se. I see him putting the effort in, but I don't see him truly meaning it. Maybe that's just his playstyle - I honestly don't know - but I'm just not getting the same feeling from him as I do Twinkletoes. I forget who said it, but I know it's been said that sometimes it's best to look at who you feel is innocent, and why. In doing that, it brings Sareln into starker contrast for me. That's why I'm leaning towards 'Wolf for him.

I'm really tempted to call the entire zak/Serdoa thing an unpleasant shouting match that's distracting us from picking the lower-hanging fruit. My gut instinct is there's probably a pair of wolves in the "quiet" group I pointed out last night, and I'd rather we spent today trying to sort the wheat from the chaff there. That said, the sheer amount of effort Serdoa put into his post means its worth reassessing, particularly as I feel pretty comfortable that Serdoa is innocent. So I'll hold off on shouting now.

Sums up my feelings pretty well, minus the shouting comment at the end.

Catwalk, you're almost comically bad at projecting innocence at this point. The part where AS A VILLAGER you're claiming you buddied up to zak to lay low, etc, etc is just absurd. Instinctively, I think that you'd almost have to be a villager because a wolf wouldn't dare be so obvious but who knows at this point. While I don't necessarily adhere to a lynch all liars policy as a matter of course, I do believe that a villager needs a really good reason to be dishonest (hiding a power-role, fishing for very important information, etc.)

Yeah, I gotta say Catwalk I was actually taken aback by your brazen statements. I don't know what game you're playing, but you smack of hubris and ego - like Lewwyn's WW2 game ("I'm playing to survive") mixed with zakalwe's persona. Worse than that, though, you completely lack either player's moral compass. That's disturbing in its own right, and almost reason enough to lynch you based on that. However, the only way I can possibly see you actually saying that is either if you're a Villager - a foolish, arrogant Villager - or you're a 'Wolf who's so close to victory even the threat of getting lynched doesn't phase you. With the air of your persona, both throughout the game and especially right now, I almost can't tell the difference - I could truly see you taunting us right now, being so close to a flawless victory. However, better judgment holds me firm, and I'm going to go with the former option: you're a Villager who's got some pretty screwed up viewpoints, and either lacks the experience or the humility to recognize that. I'm not going to harp on you about it further.

To Serdoa especially, but anyone else who'd like to comment as well: the main reason my suspicion on zakalwe has waned, outside of what I've seen as helpful contribution, is because that I don't think it's plausible he would have led both the runs on uberfish and Erebus. uberfish or Erebus I could see, but both seems too reckless. What are your thoughts about that?

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest, and hasn't, to see zakalwe lead the lynch mobs against uberfish and Erebus. Ironically, zakalwe dutifully marching onward towards lynching Villagers is what's made me think he's a Villager throughout this whole game. I know I've posited a lot of "what ifs?" with regard to him, but if you wanted me to give you an actual opinion instead of just wild theories I'd say my initial reaction was probably correct: even the "new and improved" zakalwe will still blindly lynch Villagers for the slightest of faults.

I'm still struggling with Serdoa's accusations, because I honestly can't dismiss them out of hand. There's just too much at stake, and too much craziness has already happened for me to simply dismiss anything short of someone standing up and saying "I'm a 'Wolf". :neenernee Still, I'm having a hard time letting go of my initial reaction. If zakalwe is a 'Wolf, I'll respectfully tip my hat to him that he's learned to be the Alpha 'Wolf of RBWW.

Also, this is bugging me. Is anyone else suspicious that Serdoa, Catwalk, and TT would all simultaneously go after zak?

No. I've seen this side of Serdoa, and when he gets his mind wrapped around something like this he will not let it go until he's put it to rest one way or the other. Twinkletoes I'm actually surprised hasn't been more at zakalwe's throat, if only for old time's sake, but read my comments about his response to this: makes solid sense to me. Catwalk... well, I'm not going to touch that, but suffice it to say I find it VERY odd to pull a complete 180 to someone whose ass you've had your head lodged in for most of the game - but I imagine everyone needs to breathe sooner or later, and at this point I wouldn't put much of anything past anyone. So, in short: no, I don't find it suspicious at all.

I guess, the way I'm starting to see it is that the case against zakalwe has been here the entire time; I know because I spent almost the first 50 pages making it! Why is it suddenly gaining any traction now?

1) Welcome to Werewolf - the game. 2) This is par for the course in just about every RBWW game I can recall. 3) I personally have seen it happen with me throughout this game, and at least once or twice in all the past games I've been in. It's Just One of Those Things ™.

Now, consider that Catwalk was one of the primary drivers of the uberfish vote that helped TT the most, Serdoa's switch to scooter helped Catwalk the most, and the Serdoa Cat began the attack in earnest on zakalwe when he put his vote on TT. I don't know, I think that's starting to look like a suspicious little troika.

I'm not finding any of those dots connecting, and wild theories like this are always common in WW (at least around here) - and rarely ever right.

My vote goes to Twinkletoes for this round because it creates a situation where either the double-voter will need to vote to lynch me or interesting vote movements will have to take place to lynch me and will prove good for analysis later (after I'm a proven dead innocent).

My first reaction here was to vote for you, but I'm not going to let brash impulses get the better of me. I'm switching to a No Vote until such time as I see a better lynch candidate, and I can trust myself not to simply vote for someone who's going after someone I feel is innocent. Right now, though, you're my most likely suspect - so don't be surprised if at the end of the day my vote is squarely on you.

Roland: As far as I can see, your only reason for voting TT today was to put pressure on him (even though you wrote another overly verbose treatise to justify it). What are your thoughts about TT now that we've heard from him? And why are you so certain that I am innocent?

Call it my own hubris, or call it following my instincts, but I don't think you've grown as a player enough to still act like Villager zakalwe (I'm sorry, but uberfish + Erebus have shown me you haven't learned your lesson about blindly lynching Villagers for the wrong reasons) while being 'Wolf zakalwe. If that's me not wanting to admit defeat to the likes of you, so be it. I'm not so proud I can't admit that, character flaw though it may be. Also, the tone I get from you is one of more... restraint. It's caution, but not in a 'Wolf way. It's almost like someone else said (no idea who): you've actually started to take to heart some of the sharper criticisms about you, and you're honestly trying to take a look at yourself and adjust your personality / behavior to improve that. You're still in the first stages of that, but that's what I read.

I could be completely off base (in a variety of ways, for a variety of reasons), and you're free to correct me if you see fit, but you asked and I'm answering. I do agree very sharply that your Day 1 stance on uberfish was inconsistent, but I think I've seen enough of you to know you're not so full of yourself to believe you're always right, right from the start. I think uberfish's gambit, combined with everyone's reactions threw you for a bit of a loop, and it brought you a rare moment of having to truly question yourself, your motives, and your actions. That you ultimately came to the same conclusion I'd expect of you - as a Villager - made it easier to understand and accept your inconsistencies on Day 1.

As for my thoughts on Twinkletoes, you can find those in this post, but to recap: I think he's probably a Villager. It's a similar vibe as I got from Erebus, just not nearly as strong - the emotional input from him is much more subdued, but the overall vibe is the same.

Once again it's almost 2 AM, but I wanted to get this all out there. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Tonight, I intend to sleep like the dead.

[zakalwe]

So, what you say is that when scooter is innocent then you are innocent?

Yes. If he is innocent, and I were a wolf, I would have seized the opportunity to lynch him and strike two birds with one stone.

[Serdoa]

Guys, one point I want to make about my suspicion for zak:

Most of you are not dismissing my theory or the observations I've presented. I've seen one or two comments about slightly biased view, but even then it was stated that zak was indeed several times inconsistent. Not only the uberfish thing, not just the scooter exchange.

You are not dismissing my theory. You are solely disappointed by the idea that zak could really be a wolf. I remember one comment: "it would be a shame to lose villager-zak". Thats exactly the feeling I get from several of you: Not the believe that I am wrong but the fear that I could be right. I don't think you dismiss me, I think you just don't want it to be true.