Werewolf 7 game thread

[Sareln]

I only deserve "closer scrutiny"? *waits for Roland to jump at him, fangs bared*

I find it highly suspicious that you don't want to put anyone forth as a candidate. We have a wealth of information by now and not very many villagers left, take a random shot and you'll have really good accuracy.

About 50/50 actually if you assume Serdoa's innocence and know your own role to be innocent.

[Catwalk]

Btw can we even win anymore? Tomorrow it'll be a 5/5 tie for mayor with the voter wolf. If the roll doesn't fall our way, we're doomed. If it does fall our way, we have a chance if everybody votes correctly.

[Catwalk]

Another btw: If Serdoa doesn't die tonight, he has to be wolf. The wolves have a straight 50% chance of winning right away with Serdoa dead, plus a chance of the village screwing up even if we regain mayorship.

[Meiz]

Well, not a whole lot as he's only posted, what, 33 times? It's not like we've had a ton of information to work with in determining his alignment. There are a couple posts that stood out to me, though, that both made me feel he was innocent, and later reaffirmed that. this post and this post both stuck out in my mind, and are what really swung me towards his innocence. Really though, go look at just about any of his most recent posts - they just don't feel 'Wolfish to me.

So let's take a closer look:

I am (once again) unsurprised to see that zak resorts to going after me now his other favourite targets Rowain and MNG have met their unfortunate demises. Once again he has tunnelled in on me and I have not seen one good reason from him to suspect me any more than his other suspects. Also he says I'm playing differently than WW1 and to an extent he's right. I grew to hate WW1 and I am doing as much as I can to avoid being so emotionally invested in this game and I am trying to stick to my own logic or gut feeling if logic is failing me.

Paints Zakalwe in bad light while ignoring the rest who have accused him.

I stand my decision to switch to scooter as I became really convinced that Erebus' emotion was real and that he was screaming villager at me.

I sympathised with him and pushed for catwalk to save him. Once catwalk was off the table, I took a risk to trust Serdoa and his arguments. I may still be proven wrong and scooter is innocent too, but I was determined to keep Erebus alive.

Was so convinced of Erebus's innocence that was willing to lynch anyone else. One might suspect he knew Erebus is a villager.

I almost feel like zak is trying to goad me into voting for him and it is becoming awfully tempting. I also think that with my reading of his posts that I am more and more uncertain of his innocence. Something isn't quite right and with someone posting in the quantity that zak does, that is much more noticeable to me.

Again concentrating fully on Zak, because "something wasn't quite right"

I don't have the time to fully explain it now, but if I was to punt right now on the four wolves I would guess thus:

1) Zak - see reasons above

Did he ever find time to fully explain anything? Funny how the reference on suspecting Zak is seen above. That is, "something isn't right"

However, I do also have the feeling that the right 'synergy' of the four wolves from my perspective would be 2 out of the Zak/Meiz/Catwalk trio trying to be prominent and shape the debate and then have the silent but deadly Sareln in the shadows and a scooter who does contribute, but on a different way of thinking than the main two to avoid tying too many of them together if one went down.

Thinks Zak(innocent)/Meiz(innocent)/Catwalk and then Sareln and scooter is the wolf pack. Anyone else thinks that me and scooter are both wolves?

Bullshit. I have been pissed off no end by people's early aspersions that I was using my busy-ness as some kind of cover and being a 'martyr'. I could stay angry with quite a few people who keep going on about my silence as if its tactical, but I've got a million better things to do and this game is one of the least important things that make up my day.

Completely ignores other arguments brought against him and takes the martyr attitude once more.

You're last line has made my mind up though zakalwe. You are twisting my words yet again. My only implication of you being responsible for those deaths is by calling you a wolf. I mentioned them because you do have 'favourites' that you always seem to suspect regardless and with them both dead, I was having some 'gallows humour' that your vote was inevitably falling on me.

Every single post you seem to be making just seems off and its becoming more and more pronounced. I would be stunned if you are innocent.

Overreacting way too much (finds an excuse to attack Zak). I wouldn't find it hard to fake this kind of anger, personally.

So I still find it extremely odd that Roland has TT listed in his "sure innocents". More fuel to my previous theory

Whoever is killed next night, the villagers need desperately to recognize each other and form a team. I think we will lose with next mislynch if we don't kill the double voter? And if Serdoa is killed, it's essential to find villager mayor.

[Meiz]

So in other words, it's getting desperate, and this means desperate actions. I'm probably going to put my full trust in: Serdoa, Ichabod, Gaspar, Injera, Catwalk

Then pray that they agree and that I have picked the right team

[Roland]

I only deserve "closer scrutiny"? *waits for Roland to jump at him, fangs bared*

I find it highly suspicious that you don't want to put anyone forth as a candidate. We have a wealth of information by now and not very many villagers left, take a random shot and you'll have really good accuracy.

Pardon me for having my confidence knocked down a peg after yesterday's events. Also, please do enlighten me as to this "wealth of information". I'd wager if you asked each Villager who their top suspect was, you wouldn't get a uniform consensus. Twinkletoes appears to be a prime suspect for many people, but I'm not one of them. On the other hand, I'm sure most people wouldn't suspect Meiz, but there may be one person out there who's not convinced. As for you, yes I feel you deserve close scrutiny. Your behavior this game has been difficult to read, to say the least, and it trips a number of alarm bells for some of our more seasoned players. Really, the only thing that's kept you from the block for the last day or two is that no one can believe you'd pull the kind of stunts you do if you're a 'Wolf - but seeing as this is only your second game, how well do we really know you?

I'm not going after you Catwalk. If you're a 'Wolf, I'm not confident of it enough to put you up on the block. I do have my suspects, as I've said. I'm just not in the mood for sticking my neck out again when there are people who's opinions I value who may have stronger leads than I do. That's all. If that makes you suspicious of me, so be it - not the first time this game I've done that, and vice versa. I'd almost be content to chalk it up to a personality clash, as that's what it feels like to me, but we don't have that luxury anymore - thus the "closer scrutiny" comment. You're welcome to feel the same about me - thus discussion is born.

[Sareln]

Another btw: If Serdoa doesn't die tonight, he has to be wolf. The wolves have a straight 50% chance of winning right away with Serdoa dead, plus a chance of the village screwing up even if we regain mayorship.

Mardoc, I need a rules clarification on how the double-voter works. Can he vote for a candidate that he's not voting for at the end of the day?

Serdoa can't be a wolf or the game would already be over. We'd have 9 left after the night, the wolves would all vote to lynch a villager, use the double voter, and with Serdoa as wolf and voting with them would win the lynch on a 5.1 to 5 score.

If they do kill Serdoa, then they're left with a mayor vote that can go either way if they band together, but it will mean taking a game hugely in their favor and turning it into a 50/50 coin toss, give or take a little either way.

If the wolves attempt to go for all the marbles and vote one of their own mayor, then either they'll have villager cover or they won't. If they don't have any villagers with them and lose the coin flip, then they stand exposed with the village still having enough firepower to take them out (Provided a friendly lynch). If they win the coin flip then that's game.

If the wolves instead try to do something clever and split the village on the mayor vote, a lot of tactical voting takes place and we have an opening to turn the game around in a dramatic fashion. But this situation would be very uncertain, probably worse than 50/50 in the wolves favor IMO.

So the big conundrum the wolves are facing right now is whether or not they 'ought to eat Serdoa. If they do then they face the situation that I've outlined above, not pleasant, and it brings the village back to a ~50/50 chance to win the game undoing most of their work.

[Roland]

So let's take a closer look:

I don't have time to do that right now, but I'll take the time sometime tonight or tomorrow night to do so.

Thinks Zak(innocent)/Meiz(innocent)/Catwalk and then Sareln and scooter is the wolf pack. Anyone else thinks that me and scooter are both wolves?

I don't, but I'll say if you are a 'Wolf it's already "Game over, man. Game over!" for the Village. :neenernee

Overreacting way too much (finds an excuse to attack Zak). I wouldn't find it hard to fake this kind of anger, personally.

Really? I find that hard to believe, especially since I don't think I've ever seen you angry. I'm not even sure you're capable of it.

So I still find it extremely odd that Roland has TT listed in his "sure innocents". More fuel to my previous theory

Funny how theories build upon themselves. Thus far that hasn't helped us one bit, but you never know. Sooner or later we have to get it right, right? As I said, I'll take another look at Twinkletoes.

Whoever is killed next night, the villagers need desperately to recognize each other and form a team. I think we will lose with next mislynch if we don't kill the double voter? And if Serdoa is killed, it's essential to find villager mayor.

I agree we'll need a consensus, so if it comes down to everyone voting for Twinkletoes and I'm the lone hold out, I'll go along with the Village.

[Meiz]

Funny how theories build upon themselves. Thus far that hasn't helped us one bit, but you never know.

I don't see if we have any choise. Tomorrow the wolves can do last minute vote changes and win the game, if all villagers are not voting for the same target. The problem is recognizing the villagers. That's why I had to find the most likely wolf team and try to form my own team. Sorry, you didn't get in

[Mardoc]

Mardoc, I need a rules clarification on how the double-voter works. Can he vote for a candidate that he's not voting for at the end of the day?

No. The doublevote adds one to his public vote.