Werewolf 7 game thread

[Meiz]

The way I see it. Who do I feel has tried to help the village most? Ichabod, Injera, Gaspar. I'm left with 4 wolves from: Catwalk, scooter, Sareln, Twinkletoes89, Roland

I honestly think Catwalk's play is still in tone with his last game and he has simply been too crazy and visible for a wolf.

Injera. Just have to convince you of Roland, seeing that you have listed him as your second mayor candidate

So I'm guessing it should be best to start with: TT, scooter, Sareln (order doesn't matter) and as the game progresses, convince you guys on Roland's guilt

[Gaspar]

At the moment, since we don't have to have made this decision yet, I'll go with the person I'm surest on:

Meiz

I'm not diametrically opposed to Injera, but if I were to rank my innocent list, it would look something like this (I suggested everyone do this, may as well myself):

1. Me
   
2. Meiz
   
3. Ichabod
   
4. Sareln
   
5. Roland
   
6. Injera
   
7. Catwalk
   
8. scooter
   
9. TT
   

I feel most certain of the top 3. Sareln has looked like the Sareln at the end of WW2 of late, and that bodes well I think. I guess I feel pretty good that the bottom 3 are probably wolves, which just leaves Injera or Roland, and I guess I'm just going off being able to read Roland better. We don't need to split hairs about the 4th wolf though anytime soon, just a consensus on an innocent mayor for now, and a candidate at the bottom of everyone's list to lynch.

[Gaspar]

AFTER POST EDIT: I should mention when I say I'm not diametrically opposed to Injera, I say that because I believe these things should reveal themselves before the lynch vote.

[Catwalk]

My innocence list:

Catwalk (obviously)
Meiz
Ichabod
Injera
---
Sareln
Gaspar
Roland
---
scooter
TT

I'm fine with either of the top 4 candidates. It's not that important to me how good the mayor's judgement is, but it does matter to me a fair bit how his innocence list looks. scooter and TT seem to have folded at this point, knowing nothing they say will be trusted anyway. I do expect them to drop by and taunt us with tactical misinformation, though

[Catwalk]

Actually, scratch that. All that matters is for the mayor to be innocent, regardless of who he suspects. He doesn't have more say in the votes than others as we all need to agree. I don't like Gaspar's and Injera's suspicions of me, but that won't make any difference in my vote as I'll have to face those suspicions sooner or later.

[Meiz]

Gaspar, I appreciate the trust. I'm guessing we will get multiple opportunities to pick a mayor in the following days, eh? . But we need unity, so I'd suggest you vote Injera as well. If I haven't read him totally incorrectly, TT and scooter are now also on his suspects list (as well as mine, yours and Catwalk's). I think we have to start with these two and then see who are left.

Injera, am I wrong or would you be willing to lynch scooter and TT next?

[Injera]

Injera, am I wrong or would you be willing to lynch scooter and TT next?

Yes, those two are definitely towards the top of my list, though if we lynch one and he's guilty I would want to take a fresh look at everything.

[Catwalk]

I agree with lynching scooter or TT first, either is fine with me. We need to start pondering where the double voter wolf is hiding, though. I'm not sure if we really have anything to go on, but it's critical to our survival. Unless I did my math wrong, the wolves have a staggering 50% chance each day of winning outright through a random roll on the mayor. But once they grab that chance they'll all have to expose themselves, and then it'll come down to rolls. Frankly, it pretty much is over for us unless we get way lucky. Is anyone math savvy enough to calculate our chances, assuming we pick wolves correctly and have a completely random chance of hitting the right wolf?

[Catwalk]

I'm inclined to suggest lynching Twinkletoes first, because Roland suggested waiting with him. That could be an attempt at covering for the voter wolf. I'll put my mayor vote on Injera. I believe both him and Meiz are innocent, and it seems we'll be able to elect Injera fastest. Either works, though.

[Gaspar]

Don't disagree we need unity, but I thought we might get a bit more conversation on who we trusted. Not least of which because it might help us sort out who we shouldn't be listening to today. So for that reason I'd like to see what everyone else has to say before piling all the mayor votes on one person. I will move to Injera if that's the majority decision - I've trusted him most of the game save a bit of an erratic feel I got towards the end of the day yesterday, but I suppose that could be a lot of things.

Re: the lynch, I think its pretty straightforward, Catwalk. If we hit a wolf today there's an excellent chance we win the game. The way these things work when there are so few players it gets very hard for there to be a place to hide. I'm not a big fan of "odds" posts, but really its about getting an innocent mayor and picking a guilty target today. If we do that, it should be much easier each subsequent day. The only caveat is that the wolves might feel like they have to sacrifice someone today. In that case we could end up with the whole village on one mayor and one player even with that person being a wolf. The only way that isn't the case is if we get the double-voter on the block, I think in any other instance the wolves would sacrifice someone today to retain cover for the remaining pack.

Regardless, that still ends up with another day and a dead wolf. Not such a terrible outcome.