By the by, once everyone has weighed in with their innocent list, perhaps someone can compile the numbers (probably not me, as I work tonight) and we can have a master list to debate a bit before settling on a lynch target?
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
I'm posting this from work, so I'll have to be brief. At least I'm caught up on the thread.
Sorry for not posting anything for so long. I was going to post some thoughts yesterday, but some of the posts made me very disappointed and I decided to take some time to cool my head.
First, I want to adress this:
Sareln Wrote:Whenever I was trying to evaluate Ichabod/Injera the biggest thing that stuck in my mind was Ichabod praising Injera as thinking in a similar manner to himself, (I think he did it twice) and yet Injera and Ichabod have never voted together. Not once in 4 total votes.
Did I really ready you upside down then Serdoa? That's hilarious.
This has no grounds, because here's what I stated about Injera:
Ichabod Wrote:A
Injera has had some suspicion against based on lack of content. I find this totally unfair and it further leads me to beleive that some people aren't really reading all the thread (the same thing about my unanswered questions). I find myself constantly agreeing with Injera (not much on his suspects, but with his thoughts about the game). I already quoted his day 1 analysis and his thoughts on Uberfish. I also liked his own post about disliking the "liekly innocent" posts. Maybe he has a similar way of thinking then me, so that's why I like what he posts. But things like "he's a newbie villager" or "he's being commanded by wolves" doesn't make any sense to me.
I think you stated in something like 5 posts in a row that I read your post wrong, Sareln, and how unfair that was. Now you did the same thing to me.
I have no problems voting for Injera as mayor, because of the things I stated about him previously.
My list of would be this (from innocent to suspect):
Meiz
Injera
Gaspar
Roland
Sareln
Scooter
Twinkletoes89
Catwalk
I haven't read the thread with the due dilligence yesterday, so my mind hasn't changed much from the day before. But I felt like Meiz discussion with Roland really made Meiz stand out as a villager.
I'll try to give more thoughts tonight, but it has been hard to find the proper time to do it. If you have any questions, just ask and I'll answer when I can.
Injera Wrote:In the event you're not comfortable with me for Mayor, please list who you would be comfortable with. Like I said, we must be unanimous in this as a village. My next choice would be Roland. I don't know, with how things have played out the last day and night, if I would be comfortable with anyone else. That being said, if rest of you wanted to vote for anyone, from Catwalk to Ichabod, I would go along. We must have unity.
I'm touched that you feel strongly enough about my innocence that you'd be willing to vote me Mayor. After making the same mistake as you on zakalwe, but being more vocal about it, I had pretty much given up on anyone trusting me in this game - especially with Meiz breathing down my neck, and Twinkletoes - being a favorite suspect - voting in line with me 2 Days in a row. While I think Meiz can be a little overconfident at times, I do sense he's a Villager trying to help us, just like you and me.
After taking a break from this game last night (to cool off and simply recover), I thought it through, and I've decided the needs of the Village outweigh my feelings towards any one person. As such, I'm inclined to go with Meiz and Catwalk in their selections. I think Injera would make a fine Mayor, and I think Twinkletoes is our best chance at a consensus. I already promised Meiz I would go along with that, and I feel that's the right course of action. Taking my own blinders off I can't see any reason why everyone trusts Sareln but me, while I'm the only one who trusts Twinkletoes. I'm not arrogant enough to believe I'm right and the whole Village is wrong - especially after yesterday's grueling mistake. I think the events of the last couple days have proven that there's just too many suspicious things going on for there not to be a 'Wolf in the mix. Serdoa pushed for zakalwe when Injera was backing off. We know Serdoa is innocent, and I don't think many here would question Injera's innocence, so that leaves me, Twinkletoes and Catwalk. I think it's impossible that there's not a 'Wolf in that group, and since Twinkletoes came in a very close second when we lynched zakalwe that makes him the most suspect of the three, followed by me, and then Catwalk. Seeing as how emotion can be faked, especially given Twinkletoes and zakalwe's previous history, and how it's not in any way foolproof trying to read emotion through text on a screen, if we look at the hard evidence there's just too much suspicion to ignore. Meiz is right to point that out, and thus he's right to point his finger at me, as well - no Villager can argue the there's sufficient evidence for suspicion, not even me, only whether or not that suspicion is correct or incorrect. If/when Twinkletoes shows up as a 'Wolf, it should give us a bit more insight into who the others are. It will then be up to each of those players to prove their innocence once and for all - regardless of how much they may or may not have done so in the past.
Anyway, that's where I stand right now. I'm not going to be following this last day cycle as religiously as I have been up until now (I only got about 2 hours of sleep last night, so I'm pretty beat), but I'll check in at least once tonight, and be more active near the end of Saturday (probably from about noon onwards). I'm sure that's going to set off a red flag in someone's eyes (Meiz), but I'm not willing to jeapordize my health for a game. I've been pushing myself too hard this last month, while ill and working 55+ hours a week amidst a big move to a new home, so my "free time" is going to have to be taken up by a bit more rest, and a bit less time in front of the computer. I'm still dedicated to the Village, and to giving it our best shot at winning this, though, so don't doubt me on that, please.
Gaspar Wrote:Re: voter wolf - I think we can't get bogged down in permutations there. Ultimately, we need to vote wolves and we need a consensus - no last minute switching shenanigans, etc. I mean ultimately, at this point, so long as the villagers take solidarity there's no way the wolves can win themselves, they have to wait for us to screw up, either by putting a vote on an innocent or putting a mayoral vote on a wolf.
This is incorrect, though. The wolves have a better than 75% chance of winning outright on their own, on the assumption that we target a random wolf. The flip side is that the wolves have to out themselves in order to grab this chance. I hope the wolves are not gamblers and that they feel confident they'll be able to fool us, if not we're facing some very tough dice rolls.
I suppose what we should discuss now is whether to hang scooter or TT. Everybody seems to be convinced these are the suspects to look at. IMO the only thing we should be trying to find out is who of them is more likely to be the voter wolf. I know we don't have much to go on.
One implication of this is that the wolves will likely choose plans depending on who we vote for. If we pick the voter wolf, the gambit only has a 50% chance of winning. If we pick any other wolf, the gambit has a very high probability of winning. All this means is that we really need to pray we hit the voter wolf, that would give us a 50% chance on dice rolls (if wolves try to get mayor and out themselves) or we resume to a normal game state with the remaining wolves unknown.
Catwalk Wrote:This is incorrect, though. The wolves have a better than 75% chance of winning outright on their own, on the assumption that we target a random wolf. The flip side is that the wolves have to out themselves in order to grab this chance. I hope the wolves are not gamblers and that they feel confident they'll be able to fool us, if not we're facing some very tough dice rolls.
I suppose what we should discuss now is whether to hang scooter or TT. Everybody seems to be convinced these are the suspects to look at. IMO the only thing we should be trying to find out is who of them is more likely to be the voter wolf. I know we don't have much to go on.
One implication of this is that the wolves will likely choose plans depending on who we vote for. If we pick the voter wolf, the gambit only has a 50% chance of winning. If we pick any other wolf, the gambit has a very high probability of winning. All this means is that we really need to pray we hit the voter wolf, that would give us a 50% chance on dice rolls (if wolves try to get mayor and out themselves) or we resume to a normal game state with the remaining wolves unknown.
To be honest, when I see someone start quoting statistics in a Werewolf game I just zone out. None of these variables are truly random, and they all assume behavior we cannot automatically assume to be correct. So, ultimately, to me the game boils down to only 2 factors being relevant:
1. Pick an innocent for mayor
2. Pick a wolf to lynch
If/When we nail the voter wolf, then the calculus changes. But there's no flipping way the wolves are going to try any gambits now unless they're assured of winning. Trust me, wolfpacks are by nature cautious - they only go for home run when they're in danger of striking out. And nothing we can do today will be an autowin for the village so they're just going to stay quiet and do their thing unless we pick a wolf as mayor. If Injera is a wolf, its game over. If he's a villager, then we pick the most likely wolf and reassess tomorrow. The likelihood that the double voter left tells that they're the double voter is next to none.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
Alright Ichabod, I can see how that's a misread on my part with thinking similar but not voting together sort of thing. The most recent one where you expressed such a sentiment is below and that's why I thought you meant that your votes should be in accord.
Ichabod Wrote:Injera: I said it previously that I think Injera has a similar way of thinking and playing than me. I agreed with a lot of what Injera said during the game and I feel we have similar voting styles too (I can understand why he didn't vote for Scooter on the end of day 2). I tend to think he's a villager, but I want to hear his take on the other players. If you could say some things about each player, i'd be thankful, Injera. Of course, it'd be good if every player made such a list, but I think I have a specific interest in Injera because of my thinking that we have similar opinions.
Regardless, I'm not gunning for you today and when we see what falls out today I'll go back and reconsider again. I think we both trust Injera enough to push him as mayor and that's good enough for what needs to be done today.
Gaspar Wrote:To be honest, when I see someone start quoting statistics in a Werewolf game I just zone out. None of these variables are truly random, and they all assume behavior we cannot automatically assume to be correct.
I had a feeling that was the case. And generally, I'd agree with you. This is different because the wolves have a strong chance of winning on their own at this point. They can simply stop posting now and let us guess who's the voter wolf, while trying to get a wolf elected mayor every day. There's no disputing this IMO. Only reason I can see for the wolves not choosing this play are 1) if we correctly pick out the voter wolf to lynch, lowering their chances of a succesful dice run to exactly 50%, and 2) if they feel more than 80% confident of winning the game without this play. We need to target the voter wolf tonight. If we look through available information, maybe we'll get a few leads at who's likely to be the best protected wolf as they'll want to keep him alive to the end.
Quote:So, ultimately, to me the game boils down to only 2 factors being relevant:
1. Pick an innocent for mayor
2. Pick a wolf to lynch
I agree with this. It's certainly top priority to pick a villager to be the mayor. I'm confident enough that Injera and Meiz are both good choices that this doesn't concern me much. I'm glad we'll have plenty time to discuss who to hang, and I hope I can convince you all that our objective should be looking for leads on the voter wolf. It makes a huge difference for our chances.
Quote:But there's no flipping way the wolves are going to try any gambits now unless they're assured of winning. Trust me, wolfpacks are by nature cautious - they only go for home run when they're in danger of striking out. And nothing we can do today will be an autowin for the village so they're just going to stay quiet and do their thing unless we pick a wolf as mayor. If Injera is a wolf, its game over. If he's a villager, then we pick the most likely wolf and reassess tomorrow. The likelihood that the double voter ft tells that they're the double voter is next to none.
The wolves have a straight chance of exactly 76.5625% if they decide to expose themselves and we guess at random about the voter wolf each day. If you want to assume that we have a better than random chance of guessing the voter wolf, that chance will go down a bit, but no lower than 65%. Those are excellent odds of winning.
I'll concede that I'm doing this partly for fun, but I fully believe this is useful and accurate. We need to try to figure out who the voter wolf is, it's not enough to be certain of lynching a wolf. I think everybody agrees that scooter and TT are the most likely wolves, but that's not necessarily enough. In fact, given that both tried to lay low and be semi-active all game, I don't find it likely either of them is the voter wolf. scooter cited credible activity reasons right away, so he'd be my guess. TT just seemed to lay low, I don't think that's the strategy a voter wolf would pursue.
With that said, my vote is scooter for now. He seems to want more badly to live than TT, and I think he laid low for activity reasons rather than tactical reasons. I'll consider other suspects as well, but we do run a higher risk of lynching a villager if we vote for someone else. My other suspects are Roland and Sareln.
I swear on my (still living) mother's graves that this is me being a sane villager for a change, and I implore you to consider my arguments.
If any math nerds are around, here's the probability tree I used:
1a: Wolf becomes mayor (50%) LOSS, P = 50%
1b: Villager becomes mayor (50%), P = 50%
--- 2a: We lynch voter wolf (25%) WIN, P = 12.5%
--- 2b: We lynch normal wolf (75%), P = 37.5%
------ 3a: Wolf becomes mayor (50%) LOSS, P = 18.75%
------ 3b: Villager becomes mayor (50%), P = 18.75%
--------- 4a: We lynch voter wolf (33%) WIN, P = 6.25%
--------- 4b: We lynch normal wolf (67%), P = 12.5%
------------ 5a: Wolf becomes mayor (50%) LOSS, P = 6.25%
------------ 5b: Villager becomes mayor (50%), P = 6.25%
--------------- 6a: We lynch voter wolf (50%) WIN, P = 3.125%
--------------- 6b: We lynch other wolf (50%), P = 3.125%
------------------ 7a: Wolf becomes mayor (50%) LOSS, P = 1.5625%
------------------ 7a: Villager becomes mayor (50%) WIN, P = 1.5625%
Well I'm glad we are finding some sort of consensus, TT and scooter. Like said, we don't have to pick all wolves today. Catwalk had a good point, scooter has tried to fight back more than TT, so scooter (anyone saw this one coming?)
The wolves probably still have a good chance of winning without the gambit. Meiz and Injera will be eaten first (after we lynch TT and scooter), leaving us with a tough decision among the remaining players as most of us suspect each other. The player list will then look like this:
Ichabod
Sareln
Gaspar
Roland
Catwalk
I suggest that we discuss this scenario ahead of time, as it's highly likely to occur. If we discuss it now, Injera and Meiz will have the chance to chip in before they get eaten.
