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Injera · September 16th, 2011, 15:29

Catwalk Wrote:I suggest that we discuss this scenario ahead of time, as it's highly likely to occur. If we discuss it now, Injera and Meiz will have the chance to chip in before they get eaten.

If we manage to catch a wolf I'll definitely talk about it during the night phase. It will depend anyway on if the wolves decide to make a move tonight. For now let's focus on today.

Here are the compiled list of lists so far:

We don't have lists from scooter, TT, Roland, or Meiz, if y'all would like to contribute one.

Catwalk · September 16th, 2011, 15:36

I believe Meiz is using the following list (from a previous post shortly after the last lynch):

Meiz
Ichabod
Gaspar
Catwalk
Injera
Roland
Sareln
scooter
TT

scooter · September 16th, 2011, 15:46

Catwalk Wrote:With that said, my vote is scooter for now. He seems to want more badly to live than TT, and I think he laid low for activity reasons rather than tactical reasons.

Ok, I knew I said I was going to sit back a bit and let the mayor decide on who to kill, but I can't help but respond to this weird thing that keeps happening. Why exactly am I still being accused of "laying low"?? I thought this seemed odd, so I checked postcounts... Of the 9 players left, I'm actually 4th in posts, ahead of Injera, Gaspar, Ichabod, Twinkletoes, and Sareln.

Obviously post count is by no means the end-all, but this claim that I've been laying low feels like another example of what I mentioned earlier - repeat something enough and it becomes true to everyone.

If anyone is genuinely interested in a defense by me, let me know, and I'll do my best. I particularly think there are some TT oddities that bother me. Really, I'm not especially motivated since I'm a dead man walking anyways and once that happens we lose, but I do think TT makes a much better lynch target than me for a variety of reasons. There's also some pretty pertinent reasons why I'm a bad lynch bet. Again, I'll outline it all for you guys if you'd like... Or if you're dead-set, that's fine, I'll vote with the majority and get the game over with - as I'm a bit burnout honestly.

scooter · September 16th, 2011, 15:48

Honestly, as long as I'm on the chopping block (whether it's today or tomorrow), this game is unwinnable. However I'd at LEAST like to not be the first village to get clean-swept.

Injera · September 16th, 2011, 15:51

scooter Wrote:If anyone is genuinely interested in a defense by me, let me know, and I'll do my best. I particularly think there are some TT oddities that bother me. Really, I'm not especially motivated since I'm a dead man walking anyways and once that happens we lose, but I do think TT makes a much better lynch target than me for a variety of reasons. There's also some pretty pertinent reasons why I'm a bad lynch bet.

I would love to hear all of the things you mentioned here.

Catwalk · September 16th, 2011, 15:58

scooter Wrote:Ok, I knew I said I was going to sit back a bit and let the mayor decide on who to kill, but I can't help but respond to this weird thing that keeps happening. Why exactly am I still being accused of "laying low"?? I thought this seemed odd, so I checked postcounts... Of the 9 players left, I'm actually 4th in posts, ahead of Injera, Gaspar, Ichabod, Twinkletoes, and Sareln.

Obviously post count is by no means the end-all, but this claim that I've been laying low feels like another example of what I mentioned earlier - repeat something enough and it becomes true to everyone.

But you did lie low, and you talked a lot about it. You also had a pretty good reason for laying low. You then changed later, yes. I'll certainly let you try to change my mind, doubt it will happen.

scooter · September 16th, 2011, 16:08

Alright, I'll write up a summary. I can't be around a lot tonight unfortunately, but I've got about 30-40 mins now.

Catwalk · September 16th, 2011, 16:18

I'm off for bed, should have enough time tomorrow. scooter, do you believe that we had 3 innocents on the block yesterday? I think the vote changes were too dramatic for that to be likely. Your only viable defense is accusing me IMO.

scooter · September 16th, 2011, 16:43

(note: v in parenthesis means confirmed dead villager, ? means alive therefore unknown for sure)

Alright, the big thing that I've noticed multiple times so far is how Twinkletoes has been magically saved 2/3 days now. The first time was Day1. We saw everyone jump on the Uberfish bandwagon, which saved Twinkletoes who had quite a bit of heat on him prior to the late bandwagon. When I voted Uberfish, I joined Zakalwe(vill), Catwalk(?), and Erebus(v) to make myself the 4th vote on Uberfish. At the time of that vote, Roland(?), Jkaen(v), Erebus(v), Sareln(?), and Meiz(?) were all on TT, giving a couple of:

TT: 5 (Roland(?), Jkaen(v), Erebus(v), Sareln(?), and Meiz(?))
Uberfish: 4 (scooter(?), Zakalwe(vill), Catwalk(?), and Erebus(v))

After my vote came the avalanche. Here's the list of people who jumped on Uberfish and made the "deciding votes" to dump things onto him:

Meiz(?)
Jkaen(v)
MNG(v)
Sareln(?)
TT(?)
Serdoa(v)

So Meiz, TT, and Sareln all jumped onto Uberfish (lump me into that if you'd like - I'll understand). I'll throw out TT for a second, because duh he's going to vote for Uberfish... But Meiz and Sareln are interesting here because BOTH of them had also voted for TT, and thus jumped from TT to Uberfish. This day in a vacuum is not quite as meaningful, especially given the Uberfish craziness, but this is not the only time that TT is seemingly "saved". Day2 he showed up on absolutely nobody's radar. Side-note: This is an interesting werewolf phenomenon - it seems that the 2nd place lynch votee tends to get almost no votes the next day, for reasons I don't understand. Maybe it's just me, but this seems to happen 75% of the time. Odd.) Day 3 however, yesterday, he gets saved again. I won't use the "?" marks this time, since all but Zakalwe/Serdoa are still alive obviously, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

Day 3 is much simpler to parse - only 29 votes were recorded - check here: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=913

Look at votes 20-22. This was cast a few hours before the lynch, where myself, Meiz, and Ichabod all voted Twinkletoes. The score at that point stood:

Twinkletoes: 7 - Zakalwe(v), Injera, Sareln, Gaspar, scooter, Meiz, Ichabod (note: would be 8, but Roland went TT->no vote briefly before these votes)
Zakalwe: 3 - Serdoa(v), Catwalk, Twinkletoes

So what happened? This was after 40 hours of discussion + a lot of nightphase discussion - so it seems pretty obvious that the bulk of the village thinks TT is the better lynch target, while villager Zak is going to survive. So what happened? Votes 23-29 happened

23. Catwalk votes zakalwe (note: history records him voting Zak twice and no one else, so the above is not a typo)
24. Gaspar votes scooter
25. Injera votes zakalwe
26. zakalwe votes scooter
27. Roland votes zakalwe
28. Sareln votes scooter
29. zakalwe votes Twinkletoes

Gaspar, Sareln, and Injera all jump OFF of Twinkletoes, while Roland jumps onto Zakalwe. Boom, bye-bye villager.

-------

So let's take everyone's assumption here. Let's assume TT is a werewolf. Why on earth then would he get saved like that TWICE, unless he was somehow valuable? Day1 is hard to really draw conclusions from because Uberfish's behavior was a big factor, but this Day3 data is pretty glaring - in the flashing neon sign variety. Why was TT saved??

Also - the only two times I've ever been on the block were last-minute bandwagons - seriously so in Day2, and less seriously here in Day3. In fact, on Day2, Twinkletoes nearly killed me by casting a vote on me in the final minutes that nearly got me lynched. Now, if TT and I are both wolves as most are assuming, why would TT nearly kill me at the buzzer when he knew a villager was about to die? And if you assume that one of us is guilty and one is innocent, the results speak for themselves - you think TT is really just that lucky? He was totally silent at the end of both of those days, and yet he magically got saved due to no work of his own. The irony here is that it's about to happen yet again - he's on the block with me (pretty much everyone agrees one of our heads should roll today) - and here he is, about to narrowly escape again. In a village that is basically 50% wolves, you really think that isn't suspicious? I think it's eerily similar to what's happened pretty much all the other days.

Furthermore - it's a smart move for wolves to sacrifice wolves in favor of gaining credibility... but I can't help but wonder if their double-voter was also the guy constantly in the most trouble (and also not around to defend himself much) - Twinkletoes. So they gambled a bit, caught a few breaks, and managed to keep him alive. They can absolutely win without him, but it's much easier to just keep him alive, especially in a floundering village that is down because of the vig AND the fact that a villager disappeared.

That's way too many "coincidences" for me to believe frankly. Anyways, I've got to go... I'll try to dump more later, but I'm not sure I'll be able to tonight.

Note: FWIW - I'm not at ALL saying all those people who helped "save" TT are werewolves. In fact, several are probably villagers. Just saying that it was WAY too convenient to me - all it takes is one wolf to create enough momentum for it to happen. My suggestion is lynch TT, see that he's a WW (he better freaking be one, and then take a long, hard look at who is left that may have helped save him. Especially if he's the double-voter (meh, or even devil for that matter), it could be especially valuable.

Alright, gotta run.

Roland · September 16th, 2011, 16:47

Alright, I know I said I was going to take a bit of time off, but today's been a reasonably slow work day, so I've had a bit more time to piece together a comprehensive post on some of the things bouncing around in my head. Besides, Injera's vote of confidence and Meiz's comments about me not trying as hard as I should made me realized I needed to step things up - rather than slink away in shame - after my mistake yesterday. So, here's some of my thoughts.

Looking over the last few days, a couple things stand out to me. First off, Twinkletoes voted to lynch scooter with very little time left in the day (at Serdoa's urging, along with Erebus and myself). Erebus's vote can be explained by wanting to save himself from being mislynched, and my vote has already been explained (again, trying to avoid mislynching Erebus). Twinkletoes didn't give much of an explanation, though. All he said was:

Twinkletoes89 Wrote:I'm setting myself up big time if this goes wrong Serdoa, but right now you're the player who's judgement I trust most (intriguing given our history lol!) and I want Erebus saved.

scooter

The way I see it, if I was the Double Voter I'd want to keep as much cover on myself as possible. Given that Twinkletoes had already been feeling heat over the last couple days, it makes sense that he would 1) try to stay on Serdoa's - the Mayor - good side, and 2) try to do something to avert further suspicion - like sacrifice a 'Wolf. Saving a Villager and killing a 'Wolf in a single blow, while taking a "leap of faith" on Serdoa's request alone - with Twinkletoes' and Serdoa's "history" mind you - seems like a perfect way to shred suspicion, and guarantee your existence well into the late game. That Erebus died and scooter lived was, at the time, of no consequence, as what was important was the appearance of trying to be a good Villager. I think it's also important to remember that just before that he had placed a "safe" vote on Catwalk - another person I suspect. Now, personally I think it would be too risky voting to kill one of your fellow 'Wolves that early in the game, but I'm not often a risk taker. Moreover, the Village had already lost their Role Blocker and used up their Vigilante shot, and with the Baner dying that night it's entirely possible they knew who would be "safe" to kill off and who wouldn't be.

Moving forward to Day 3, Twinkletoes posts one single lynch vote - zakalwe - and only after he had been under a significant threat of being lynched himself. Serdoa, Injera and Catwalk had led that charge, with Twinkletoes jumping on afterwards and me tying up the last vote. As I said already, between those last three names there has to be at least one 'Wolf, and possibly two, although suspicion will fall on all three of us. Catwalk raised the point that our best bet in winning this is to kill the Double Voter - I agree (although I haven't done the math; it just seems logical to me). He then puts his vote on scooter - the same person Twinkletoes tried to kill 2 Days ago, and the same person Meiz chose. It seems awfully suspicious to me that one of the same people who voted to kill zakalwe is now shifting focus away from Twinkletoes and onto scooter (whom Catwalk did not vote to lynch on Day 2). I suspected both scooter and Catwalk early on in the game, but for various reasons let them fall by the wayside. With few options left, I'm taking a much closer look at them (and others). It appears to me that scooter is the most likely candidate for being the plain 'Wolf, which means he's going to be the fall guy for the pack. With Meiz obsessed with killing scooter, and scooter being on just about everyone's list anyway, it makes the 'Wolves job of protecting the double voter even easier.

Looking at one of my other top suspects, I see on Day 2 Sareln first voted for JKaen, and then ultimately voted for Erebus. Both of these targets were Villagers, and Sareln's justification for voting Erebus never sat well with me. For that matter, I always found it odd he started the day off voting JKaen, when he made it clear on Day 1 he wouldn't be around much (if at all). Thus my comment about not getting blood from a stone, which caused Sareln to (once again, I might add) smack his head and laugh at himself, before parking his vote on Erebus. This behavior was reminiscent of Day 1, when he voted randomly to elect the Mayor and to lynch me - with the excuse that he didn't factor in how important the Mayor would be in a game with no Seer. Later on, when questioned on that, he changed his Mayor vote to Gaspar - who at the time was voting to lynch him. I know he's explained this already, stating that he knew Gaspar was just pressuring him, and that he'd move on eventually. Once again, I found this a bit odd, but let it slide. I know everyone here is convinced Sareln is a Villager, and I'm probably the lone holdout, but his play this game just hasn't convinced me of his innocence. He's put in some posts that I'm sure took a fair bit of effort to generate, but that was mostly long after he had been criticized for posting to little content, and too few overall. It's only been lately that he's stepped up his game, when there were fewer targets to cast suspicion on.

Now, I'm not usually a fan of wild theories or tying groups of people together, but when I look at the odd behaviors of certain people, and the way they voted, it forms a picture in my mind. I'm beginning to believe that scooter is the plain 'Wolf, and that he's been set up from Day 1 to be the fall guy for the rest of the team. So far, it seems to have worked - he's had the most suspicion towards him of anyone else I suspect, and yet he still lives, which is VERY reminiscent of WW2 (everyone "knew" he was a 'Wolf, but no one voted to lynch him until very late in the game). That leaves my top three suspects as Catwalk, Twinkletoes, and Sareln. Seeing as Twinkletoes seems to be the one that has garnered the most protection (by himself, and with others), I'd guess he's the Double 'Wolf. I know it sounds like a longshot, crazy theory, and I know I'm just as suspect if not moreso as each of these people in certain players' eyes, but I wouldn't be posting this if I didn't believe it and want to help the Village. So far I haven't seen anyone living who stands out as much as scooter and Twinkletoes, and the more I think about it the more likely it seems scooter has been playing us all - much better than we've given him credit for. Yes, we could lynch him today, and we'll probably find a 'Wolf, but that will still leave the Double Voter alive for tomorrow, and Injera dying tonight, giving the 'Wolves another chance to get the Mayor spot. Remember, too, that the Double Voter can use his power for both the Mayor AND lynch votes - thus the need for us to elect an innocent for Mayor and kill the Double Voter as soon as possible.

I'm sorry for the long novel, but I knew I wouldn't be able to get this out until tomorrow if I didn't do it today (and it's taken me about half the day to type all this as it is). I didn't want to wait that long to get my thoughts out, especially since if I did wait we wouldn't have the time to discuss things properly. So I'm posting all this now. I'm going to try to check in at least once tonight, even if I have to do it rather late like I did last night. (I had a bad headache for half the day yesterday that grew progressively worse as the day wore on, so I went straight to bed after work. I got up a few hours later, and checked on the thread then, but there wasn't really anything new, and I didn't have anything to contribute at that point. Of course, because of my nap I couldn't sleep when I went back to bed, so I just tossed and turned until it was time to get up for work - thus my comment earlier about only getting a couple hours sleep, and why I probably won't be around until midday tomorrow as I intend to catch up on lost sleep.)

Before I forget (and rather than leave it to the last minute) I'll throw out my Mayor vote for Injera, although if I would be willing to vote for Gaspar or Meiz as a secondary choice. Also before I forget, thanks again for vote of trust Injera. It's equally felt, and it's a big reason why I decided to spend the time to gather all my thoughts and get them out there (the other half being I want to prove my innocence while I still have a chance). At any rate, it's almost time for me to go home and I'm practically falling asleep at the keyboard, so I'm going to end this here. Goodnight. :zzz:

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