Werewolf 7 game thread

[scooter]

Heck of a crosspost with Roland there. I don't have many comments to make - I'm not sure how to convince everyone that TT is guilty and I'm not - as I won't even lie, roland's theory makes some sense. I'll try to say more later though I'm in a hurry-ish now.

I'm off for bed, should have enough time tomorrow. scooter, do you believe that we had 3 innocents on the block yesterday? I think the vote changes were too dramatic for that to be likely. Your only viable defense is accusing me IMO.

Honestly I do believe it's more likely we had a wolf in there... But honestly, if that's the case, it certainly doesn't make sense for me. I was never really on the block until the last 60 mins when a bunch jumped on me. If I'm the one wolf in three there, how does that make any sense?? Catwalk - if you truly ARE innocent, does it make sense to you at all that wolves would jump on "scooter the wolf" when 1) I was way behind in votes and 2) they had two villagers they could've killed easily instead without nearly as much attention. Honestly, I think that alone should clear me in some respects. I think it's possible we had 3 innocents and everyone was jumping at shadows, but I think it's a bit more likely we had a wolf (I'd call the odds 65-35 or so), which is the biggest reason I do suspect you. However, I feel better than 65% on TT, so I'm not voting for you today unless Injera tells us to.

[Injera]

TT, are you there? I'd love to hear something from you.

[Injera]

I'm going to be out for a bit, though I'll check in before I head to bed. I plan to decide on my final vote tomorrow morning after I wake up and get caught up on the thread, so probably 7-8 hours before the vote time depending how much there is to catch up on. Is that enough time for everyone? If you're not going to be able make that window please speak up.

At this point I'm leaning heavily towards voting TT, though I'd like to give him an attempt to say at least something when he's up and about again. I went back and read all of his posts, and well, there's just nothing there. There's the post count discussion, the vote to lynch uberfish, a commentary on Serdoa's suspicions of zakalwe, an attempt to get us to focus on what uberfish's gambit could show us (that he never gave his own thoughts on), a little back and forth between zakalwe and him, and that's really about it of any substance. There's nothing there that screams "wolf" but neither is there anything that provides much evidence of being a villager, either. There's not enough there to get a read, at least for me.

We can try to get more looking at his votes, but once again there just is much to see. Day 1 was uberfish with somewhat suspect reasoning, riding down the landslide. Mildly suspicious, but lots of people were with him. Day 2 he shows up right before the vote, joined the landslide but then switched to Catwalk and explicitly followed Serdoa. Legitimately convinced of Erebus's innocence? Or just trying to stay out of the pack two votes in a row? Day 3 he voted for zakalwe, who was the next highest vote person at the time with TT at top, so a logical vote for self-preservation... there's just not a lot here.

We can look as well as how he benefited from the swings. You can read scooter's post back a page for the breakdown, though I think that the Day 3 swing was more the group think of innocent villagers worrying they were being played by the wolves (at least it was for me.)

It's not the world's most compelling case, but it gets stronger when you consider the lack of negative evidence against it. For every other player in this game I can think of at least a couple of things where they've done something that struck my as demonstrating some innocence. Obviously, they're not all innocent, but they've all been able to at least position themselves to appear innocent for a bit. I haven't gotten that from TT at all, just scattered feelings of mild suspicion.

The wolves have done this the entire game. Stay quiet, let the villagers lynch themselves. At some point there has to be a reckoning.

What do you all think?

[scooter]

Fwiw everyone - I'll be busy all morning and much of the afternoon (lynch is 6pm my time), but I'll try to be around a few hours before-hand if there's any questions you'd like me to answer. Whatever Injera decides tomorrow I'll vote with.

[Gaspar]

I think the odds are with us to not screw up yet again, and can't argue its compelling how many times TT's gotten himself off the hook. Also, while I will vote with the majority - let's make a decision together rather than making it sound like we're abdicating our responsibility to Injera. That's not really fair to him, and if we screw up, we do it together, its not all him.

That said, short of an extraordinarily compelling argument - nobody seems to really believe TT is innocent. So any arguments anyone wants to make in favor of someone else, I think now's the time, because its pretty clear TT's not checking in much if at all over the next day.

[Injera]

Okay, checking in again before bed... I really would appreciate everyone's opinion. I'll be looking to cast my vote 9-10 hours from now to give everyone plenty of time.

[Meiz]

I said this earlier and I'll say it again. TT and scooter are in the bottom of most peoples suspect list. Doesn't anyone wonder why TT does not fight back while scooter throws a theory why TT has to be the double voter wolf?

Also scooter says:

In fact, on Day2, Twinkletoes nearly killed me by casting a vote on me in the final minutes that nearly got me lynched. Now, if TT and I are both wolves as most are assuming, why would TT nearly kill me at the buzzer when he knew a villager was about to die? And if you assume that one of us is guilty and one is innocent, the results speak for themselves

And here's my take on it:

Day 2 and 15 minutes before the deadline the situation was:

Erebus (7): Zak, Catwalk, Gaspar, scooter, Sareln, Ichabod
Catwalk(4): Roland, Injera, MNG, TT
scooter(3): Meiz, Erebus, Serdoa

TT made changed his vote 4 minutes before deadline and Roland 1 minute before the deadline, making it:

Erebus (7): Zak, Catwalk, Gaspar, scooter, Sareln, Ichabod
scooter(5): Meiz, Erebus, Serdoa, TT, Roland
Catwalk(2): Injera, MNG

Not possible to get scooter lynched, but looks so damn good if/when we find scooter guilty. Especially Roland's last minute vote without any chance to change the outcome is so out of character.

Injera, I'm seriously urging you to vote scooter today.

[Catwalk]

Honestly I do believe it's more likely we had a wolf in there... But honestly, if that's the case, it certainly doesn't make sense for me. I was never really on the block until the last 60 mins when a bunch jumped on me. If I'm the one wolf in three there, how does that make any sense?? Catwalk - if you truly ARE innocent, does it make sense to you at all that wolves would jump on "scooter the wolf" when 1) I was way behind in votes and 2) they had two villagers they could've killed easily instead without nearly as much attention. Honestly, I think that alone should clear me in some respects. I think it's possible we had 3 innocents and everyone was jumping at shadows, but I think it's a bit more likely we had a wolf (I'd call the odds 65-35 or so), which is the biggest reason I do suspect you. However, I feel better than 65% on TT, so I'm not voting for you today unless Injera tells us to.

I'm with Meiz, it's highly believably that wolves would vote for each other at the end of day ALMOST lynching a wolf.

Again, it's not enough that we vote a wolf today. If we don't do everything we can to strike at the voter wolf, our chances look dire. I'm still convinced we have amazing odds of both TT and scooter being wolves, with some attempts being made at saving scooter. I think that's as much of a lead as we're going to get that maybe scooter is the voter wolf, so I'm sticking with that.

[Injera]

I'm going to wait an hour and 15 minutes more than then post my vote. If anyone has any final thoughts, please share.

[Ichabod]

Well, I don't have any ideas to add about who is more likely to be the double-vote wolf. And I think much of the analysis of the whole game would take different scenarios into account while watching them through a similar point of view: I don't think the wolves would play from the beggining to save the double-vote wolf. The role-blocker was probably more important to them in the beggining, because the double-vote power is very risky. So, i find it pretty hard for us to logically come up with a theory of who's more likely to be the double-vote wolf that actually is right.

That being said, I agree that lynching the double-voter would be a really good outcome. But even if we do it, I don't think we should change the strategy we are using now. Even without a double-voter, the wolves will always have just one less player then the villagers, making it pretty easy to do last minute votes to kill an innocent, if we aren't voting in consensus. The only break we really get by killing the double-vote wolf is taking the chance of the wolves going for the 50% roll with the mayor vote, which is not that much, in my opinion. Or am I not seeing something?

So, I prefer to vote for my most suspicious target, rather than try to guess the voter-wolf. If we finally lynch a wolf today, we can look at the previous days with this info. And while everybody is probably trying to take into account that TT and scooter are wolves already when they loofkback at the days, confirming it would help a lot, especially since we will now the wolf role of the player too.

Since my most suspicious target is catwalk, I'd like to vote for him. But the consensus will only form between TT and scooter, from what I'm seeing, so I'd prefer to lynch TT, since I suspect him more. Like I said before, I can't make connections between the thoughts TT explained in his posts of the last two days. The posts seem to be a fresh start every time, not thoughts that went from A to B during the time that passed. But I'd also like to hear something from TT before the deadline. Hopefully he will show up.

But I'm ok with lynching scooter too, if that's what the majority wants. I just think TT is more suspicious than him.