Werewolf 7 game thread

[Ichabod]

Just adding: if people think is more likely that scooter is the double-vote wolf and want to lynch him instead of TT, I'd vote for scooter. But if there's no consensus (or a high majority) about it, I prefer to stick with the player I suspect more, TT.

[Injera]

Thanks for speaking up Ichabod, this is agonizing. Having spent the last four hours looking at this from every conceivable angle at this point I don't think I trust anyone.

I've made my decision, though. I'll post it in 5-10 minutes once I finish tidying it up.

[Sareln]

Thanks for speaking up Ichabod, this is agonizing. Having spent the last four hours looking at this from every conceivable angle at this point I don't think I trust anyone.

I've made my decision, though. I'll post it in 5-10 minutes once I finish tidying it up.

That's the spirit

[Injera]

Like I said, this has been quite the agonizing decision, and I really can see a host of possibilities where I'm getting played by the wolves one last time, and I just hope I've made the right choice this time.

It seems everyone (except for the "guilty" parties) is pretty much agreed that, for today, this is a two-horse race between scooter and TT. In the end I agree with the idea that, given a choice between the two, TT is more likely to be the double voter.

There's a real possibility that TT won't be able to chime in today; he's been missing over a full day now, and in one of his previous posts he mentioned having a "90%" chance of having internet access. I've been thinking about this possibility a lot; if TT is innocent but can't contribue we're toast. There's nothing we can do. So if he can't make the vote then in a sense we're bascially working with the assumption that TT is guilty anyway. This made we think that maybe we should try to press the advantage and go for scooter, since if TT is a no show, and we live, then we'd have a guaranteed second wolf for tomorrow. Ultimately I rejected this, though, since in all likelihood scooter will be on the block tomorrow (his 75% rule notwithstanding ), and going for TT first has the highest chance of taking the double voter off the table in my mind.

Also, I know I advised Catwalk earlier not to look ahead, but I couldn't help doing it myself. I guess the way I look at it that if we keep punting on TT, eventually it will be him against the deepest of the deep wolves. I don't think Ichabod is a wolf, but it's plausible, and would any of us (innocents) really vote Ichabod before TT? I just don't see it happening. We're going to test TT's innocence one way or another. Maybe I'm wrong here, but this test has to happen. If TT is innocent, voting now is a mercy killing for a village that probably never had much of a chance with two mostly absent villagers...

So, my vote is on Twinkletoes89.

Just to reiterate the game theory here, because it's very important: all of the innocents need to stay unified. It's possible the wolves will try to play some games between now and the deadline. It's mandatory that everyone who is innocent keep both votes in place on Injera and Twinkletoes89. Remember: "Stay on target."

Now it's time for me to second guess myself for 6 hours.

[Sareln]

TT hasn't said a single word since Day 3, going on 3 real-time days.

If you're a villager, say something, anything, please? I know that you're busy, but even just a word saying: "Hey guys, I'm here, please don't lynch me it would be a mistake" would be better than just this silence.

[Sareln]

To reconfirm:

Injera

Twinkletoes89

[Meiz]

Twinkletoes

[Catwalk]

If we don't lynch the voter wolf tonight, the wolves have a straight 85% chance of winning through dice rolls (assuming we're guessing blindly who the voter wolf is, after being told who the wolves are). If we do lynch the voter wolf, that chance goes down to 50%. It's crucial that we at least try to find the voter wolf. I don't see anyone not thinking that both scooter and TT are wolves.

What is the argument that TT is more likely to be the double voting wolf? I'll keep my vote on scooter for now, I'll change it at day end if everybody is still set on Twinkletoes. I highly doubt that TT won't be on to vote, if that's what you're counting on.

[Injera]

What is the argument that TT is more likely to be the double voting wolf? I'll keep my vote on scooter for now, I'll change it at day end if everybody is still set on Twinkletoes.

Assuming it's a choice between a wolf TT and a wolf scooter, and the only question is who is the double voter: I think that TT is much more likely to be the voter wolf because of how exposed scooter was on Day 2. If both scooter and TT are wolves, if any one of MNG, zakalwe, Sareln, Ichabod, Gaspar, you, or I had moved on to scooter they would have had to either have a wolf switch back, use their double vote, or let scooter get lynched.
If TT is the double voter and scooter is a normal wolf, a lynched scooter, while still a dead wolf, would have given TT some deep cover throughout the rest of the game.

Now, if you want to posit an innocent TT and a wolf scooter that's a different story, but no one arguing for scooter suggested that.

I highly doubt that TT won't be on to vote, if that's what you're counting on.

I'm not counting on that, no. I was just thinking through what the ramifications would be.

Also, so I'm clear, I'm not moving my vote at this point. Since we all need to vote together, and some people can't stay up right until the end of the vote while others have things to do during the day it would be too risky to do anything fancy; if even one innocent person doesn't stay in line we will definitely lose.

[Ichabod]

Twinkletoes89

Injera

I won't be avaiable until 1 hour - 30 minutes before the end of the day, most likely. I hope that I'll be able to be here to see if there was some change in the votes, but I can't promise 100%.