The Kuriotates: A Tale of Centaurs, Hubris, and Unbridled Enthusiasm

[HidingKneel]

Ah, I misunderstood the mane mechanics. Anyway, it looks like it's moot: we get to duke it out with Hyborem first. Got to think about this carefully. One thing's for sure: this is not the time to build libraries .

[HidingKneel]

Played turn 56. According to the event log, Bob already killed one of my centaurs . But there's plenty more on the way.

First note: the arrival of Hyborem bumped up the AC. It's now at 20/134. Which means that Selrahc only needs to build 10 warriors to send us into blight. Less if he has help from Bob or Thoth. We can't afford to let up on him. So all the centaurs that were presently on route to Selrahc's lands are still on the way. Here's the force assembled so far:



There are two more on the way. It's decently sized, but many are wounded. Still, I think seven centaurs ought to be able to keep Selrahc in check. Lowest mfg number is still 9: if that's still Selrahc, we only have to kill a marked warrior each turn to break even.

For the time being, all the rest of the military goes to fight Bob. I've got two centaurs south of him right now. One I promoted to mobility II: I want to use that one as a scout, so that I know where he is at all times (also, might want to use that to snatch up his worker if possible):



Some thoughts on the Infernal territory:

1) Bob declared on Selrahc this turn. Must have found Selrahc the same way I did: by stepping on the mirror of heaven. That could be an important tile: whoever controls it has a good view of all other troop movements in the area.

2) Dis has nightmares. Do centaurs get the bonus from nightmares? If so, .

3) Dis also has copper and incense. I'd like to prevent him from working those, if I can.

Questions: I can't remember how mobile Hyborem's starting units are. Are those champions move 1? If so, we're in great shape, since surely Bob didn't stop to research HBR on his Hyborem beeline. Hyborem I know has two moves. Does he count as a melee unit?

I stopped working sages in Naggardond and Avelorn to maximize production.
Got them to 34 and 33, respectively. So we're pretty much looking at 3 centaurs a turn. Also, I'll hold of on spreading Kilmorph to Kwythellar: I can use that thane as a field medic right now, in the war against Bob.

Another thought: if I were Bob and/or Thoth, I might be building Rosier right now. That's something to watch out for, since we're running 1-warrior garrisons in each super-city.

[Notintheface]

All his starting units (at least the champs and LBs for sure, can't confirm for the imp but i think so) are 2-move. They come pre-promoted with Mob1.

I think it's a high chance both are building Rosier since it is a race to get him first, and he's much cheaper to build than Grimoire.

[Mardoc]

I think the name of the game with Bob is going to have to be divide and conquer. It would take a truly ridiculous stack of Centaurs to kill him when he's got everything stacked up - but of course everything stacked is also giving us time, or letting us run in and raze Dis.

Therefore, we probably want to have most of our Centaurs unpromoted, and promote them at the last second to whatever's appropriate. +40% is enough to make things possible.

You may want to play around with Sareln's Combat Calculator, trying various scenarios. I currently have it set up for simulating 5 Cover I/CombatI centaurs vs. 1 fully fortified Longbow in Dis. Result:

That is - 1 Centaur alone has 3% odds to win, the 2nd Centaur has 32% odds to win, the third 69%, etc. Really we want 4 Centaurs/Longbow to be sure of razing Dis while Hyborem's away.

For everyone else - it depends on the situation, and the promos, above all. CombatI/Shock Centaurs attacking unpromoted Champs on flatland, for example, need only 2 for comfortable odds (~90%).

We do have one main advantage - Centaurs are darn good units. +40% vs archery, immune to first strikes, get defensive bonuses, have a withdrawal chance, and are fast - it adds up to odds not as stacked against us as it first appears. So long as we're careful to fight on our own terms, that is.

But, yes, we need a million Centaurs yesterday. 20 would not be overkill.

[HidingKneel]

So, I can see Bob doing two things:

a) Hole everyone up in his capital until he's got a stronger force (aiming to build Rosier and/or the grimoire). If he does this, I say we spend a few turns building a reserve force, then resume building and plan to out-tech him. A direct assault with centaurs would be too costly, but we can harry him in the meanwhile.

b) Leave a garrison in his capital and send the remains of his stack toward us. If he does this, our response should depend on how he divides his forces. If he leaves one longbow as garrison, we aim to take the city before his stack can reach us. Anything more, and we try to kill the attacking stack itself.

We've got seven centaurs in/near our territory at present (two are wounded and healing in Kwythellar).

My guess would be that Thoth wins the race to Rosier. That's bad news for the AC and also bad news because it forces us to defend another front.

[Mardoc]

a) Hole everyone up in his capital until he's got a stronger force (aiming to build Rosier and/or the grimoire). If he does this, I say we spend a few turns building a reserve force, then resume building and plan to out-tech him. A direct assault with centaurs would be too costly, but we can harry him in the meanwhile.

I 95% agree. I'd add a curlique to this - finish off Selrahc ASAP, so that we can concentrate our forces.

b) Leave a garrison in his capital and send the remains of his stack toward us. If he does this, our response should depend on how he divides his forces. If he leaves one longbow as garrison, we aim to take the city before his stack can reach us. Anything more, and we try to kill the attacking stack itself.

We've got seven centaurs in/near our territory at present (two are wounded and healing in Kwythellar).

Um. I've got to look at the odds some more; we might still want to kill Dis if he leaves 2 longbows behind. That would just move the line slightly, though, not change the philosophy, which I agree with.

[HidingKneel]

Um. I've got to look at the odds some more; we might still want to kill Dis if he leaves 2 longbows behind. That would just move the line slightly, though, not change the philosophy, which I agree with.

Here's my thinking on the pros and cons:

a) Sacking Dis takes Bob out of the game. Killing an attack stack just sends Hyborem back to the capital, and lets him try again later. With Hyborem and two longbows in the capital, we probably won't want to assault it directly, so he'll have some time to tech and build and be a nuisance later.

b) If Bob's stack is moving straight at us, we'll be able to get units in front of him more quickly than we're able to get them behind him. Your estimate is that we might need 8 or 9 centaurs to handle two longbows in Dis. I'm not sure we can get those in place before Bob reaches Kwythellar.

c) Hyborem's got some nice swag. If we win by fool's mate, we won't get the gela.

d) (And this is the big one) Offensive action against Bob's attack stack doubles as defense. If we get unlucky and our attack on Dis fails, his longbows will heal up long before we have a chance to capitalize on their temporary weakness. But even a failed attack on his attack stack will leave him wounded in our territory, where we can quickly produce and swarm him with our highly mobile uits.

Anyways, this could all be irrelevant. I think in Bob's shoes, I'd probably try to lie low for a while. Starting next to the Kuriotates was bad luck for him. We're probably too strong for him to conquer. And he can't very well go off and conquer someone else with us at his back.

[HidingKneel]

Starting next to the Kuriotates was bad luck for him. We're probably too strong for him to conquer. And he can't very well go off and conquer someone else with us at his back.

Saves should go from Illios -> Thoth -> Me -> HK. Although I suspect I'll be exiting the game soon enough anyway

It appears that Bob concurs with my analysis .

Alright, turn 57 played. Bob has offered me the following deal:



It's tempting, but I was forced to decline.

In economic news, we got a tech:



Unfortunately, we're in no position to take advantage of that now. Tech set to trade, though. That at least will give passive benefits when it comes in.

The event log is eventful:



Plako's out of his golden age, and is ready to start swinging. Hopefully he doesn't come for us. Though I suspect that by the time he's done with his military buildup and ready to mobilize, we'll be finished with either Bob or Selrahc, possibly both.

So, the first thing I did this turn was send my very mobile centaur in the direction of the mirror of heaven. I didn't need to go that far north, because Bob is right here:



I assume he's using that settler as a scout, and not planning on planting a city he can't defend near our territory.

Anyways, that stack has movement two. Meaning it will be able to hit Naggarond on turn 60, or Kwythellar on turn 61. I'll be able to muster twelve or fourteen centaurs to defend at that point, depending on whether it's Naggarond or Kwthellar. Definitely no time to assault the two longbows in Dis.

I'm thinking I should let him hit whatever city he's targetting, and strike back the turn after. Centaurs will do more damage by benefitting from cultural and fortification bonuses. He'll kill three of them at most, and I'll build three more in the extra turn of time that gives me.

Thoughts: Hyborem is aggressive (is that an EitB change?). So all his units are C1 at least. One of those champions has killed a centaur and promoted to C2. Hyborem's a hero, so by the time he attacks he'll probably be C2/formation. Should figure that into the calculation.

Also, there's a forested hill next to Naggarond. If I'm going to let him strike first, I'd better not let him do it from that terrain. Maybe I'll park some centaurs there and some in the city, and let him choose which he wants to attack.

In other news, we're continuing the campaign against Selrahc. I positioned one centaur to hit him next turn, and can hit him with two more the turn after:



The AC went up another four points, so I'm assuming he built some more marked warriors. Assuming Thoth is building Rosier, we don't have a lot of breathing room if we want to avoid blight.

[Mardoc]

Anyways, that stack has movement two. Meaning it will be able to hit Naggarond on turn 60, or Kwythellar on turn 61. I'll be able to muster twelve or fourteen centaurs to defend at that point, depending on whether it's Naggarond or Kwthellar. Definitely no time to assault the two longbows in Dis.

I'm thinking I should let him hit whatever city he's targetting, and strike back the turn after. Centaurs will do more damage by benefitting from cultural and fortification bonuses. He'll kill three of them at most, and I'll build three more in the extra turn of time that gives me.

Thoughts: Hyborem is aggressive (is that an EitB change?). So all his units are C1 at least. One of those champions has killed a centaur and promoted to C2. Hyborem's a hero, so by the time he attacks he'll probably be C2/formation. Should figure that into the calculation.

Ok, we know enough to start doing some analysis!

First things first, every unit in that stack is Melee, except the Imp, who we can't get better odds on anyway. So I recommend CI/Shock all around.

Second - Hyborem has existed two turns now, and has 2 XP, and his first promo. It would sure be nice to hit him before he makes it to 5 and his second. Which would mean planning the battle for T59.

Let's look at that question first, shall we?
Hyborem at CII

Hyborem at CII/Formation


We need three more centaurs to get the same odds against Hyborem if we let him promote to Formation. That's probably worth hitting him a turn early. If we can muster the force to clear his stack, that is.


Now, what will it take to clear each of the remaining units from his stack?
[SIZE="3"]Carl Stucky (Wounded Champ):[/SIZE]

[SIZE="3"]Rusty (Unwounded Champ):[/SIZE]

[SIZE="3"]HOTDOGS (Imp)[/SIZE]:


So, looking at the number of centaurs needed to get better than 90% odds on killing each Infernal units, independently, on T59, we have:

Hyborem:
5
2 Champs:
3 apiece, total of 6
Imp:
2

Total of 13 CI/Shock Centaurs needed.

T60: 3 extra for Hyborem, equals 16 CI/Shock Centaurs

You just said we won't have that many. 10 CI/Shock Centaurs would give us 50% odds to kill each of his units, but that doesn't sound like wiping his stack, to me.

Maybe you're right, maybe we do need to let Bob get three kills for free in order to do somewhat more damage to his stack. If you do it that way, I'd recommend putting 5 centaurs into his target and keep the rest out of sight, so that he risks attacking with all. The possibility that makes me most nervous is him camping with everyone except Hyborem, who kills a centaur a turn and get ridiculous XP right quick.

But, well, I'm also afraid we may not be able to plan our battle yet. We might want to redo this analysis after Bob takes his first damage. It's possible that we need enough numbers that we have to let him hit, promote, and heal, before we can swarm him under . Or, well, it's also possible that the RNG smiles upon us, and we don't need this many.

Still, there's one bit of good news. Worst case, we ought to be able to kill most of his stack and wound the rest, while keeping a garrison intact. We might take huge numbers of casualties and let him promote, but we probably can prevent him from taking any cities or retreating successfully.

[HidingKneel]

Total of 13 CI/Shock Centaurs needed.
T60: 3 extra for Hyborem, equals 16 CI/Shock Centaurs
You just said we won't have that many.

Not that many, but pretty close. If we want to hit on turn 59, we can do it with 12 centaurs. They won't all be C1/Shock, though. We can have 8 C1/Shock centaurs in play. Two have already been promoted to mobility II, one is already C2 (gives better odds vs. the imp), and one would need some combination of sprinting and mobility promotions to arrive in time.

Maybe you're right, maybe we do need to let Bob get three kills for free in order to do somewhat more damage to his stack. If you do it that way, I'd recommend putting 5 centaurs into his target and keep the rest out of sight, so that he risks attacking with all. The possibility that makes me most nervous is him camping with everyone except Hyborem, who kills a centaur a turn and get ridiculous XP right quick.

This seems the safe route. We counterattack immediately after his attack. He has no time to heal or benefit from promotions. It just buys us three more centaurs, plus whatever centaurs he kills (be it one or three) will do more damage than they otherwise would have.

Might be tricky getting the centaurs out of sight, given that he's bringing that extra-move, extra-visibility settler with him. But I suppose it can't hurt. If he goes for Naggarond, though, I'm definitely planting another stack of centaurs on that forest hill. The "fortify champions, attack one-by-one with Hyborem" strategem becomes much more effective if he controls defensive terrain.

Anyway, "strike later" seems like the best strategy for dealing with Bob alone. But if we wipe his stack on turn 59, one of those mobility 2 centaurs could sprint the gela up to Selrahc's territory, to make sure we're not dealing with blight. Tough call.