[SPOILERS] Can't we all just get along? (lurker thread)

[Mardoc]

Surely these nice people can work out a way to live together in harmony

[Mardoc]

First piece of lurker information: people's picks, and luck.

scooter: FRTEGAI
Twinkletoes: TAIREFG
Rowain: REFGTAI
Tatan: ARTIGFE
Mattimeo: TEARGFI
Bigger: RFETGAI
Tasunke: EGAFT


First choices, unique:

Tasunke: England
scooter: France
Tatan: Austria

Remaining people:
Twinkletoes: TIRG
Rowain: RGTI
Mattimeo: TRGI
Bigger: RTGI


1st choices, coinflip winners:
Mattimeo: Turkey
Rowain: Russia

Remaining people:
Twinkletoes: IG
Bigger: GI

Twinkletoes: Italy
Bigger Germany

To sum up:

Tasunke: England
scooter: France
Tatan: Austria
Mattimeo: Turkey
Rowain: Russia
Twinkletoes: Italy
Bigger Germany

Well, Bigger, it looks like you got unlucky. We have five people who got their first choice, one who got his third, but you're stuck with choice #5.

[Amelia]

Should we just post a link to Richard's Sharp game of Diplomacy help for the new people? Seeing stuff like England must be friends with Russia just hurts my soul =( (yeah yeah, mostly true, but 5% of games you need to go the other way).

[Mardoc]

Should we just post a link to Richard's Sharp game of Diplomacy help for the new people? Seeing stuff like England must be friends with Russia just hurts my soul =( (yeah yeah, mostly true, but 5% of games you need to go the other way).

Sounds like a good idea. The main plan is for everyone involved to enjoy themselves, and that means them having a clue what they're doing. Can't give them direct advice, of course, but a general guide for everyone should be kosher. Just post it in the general thread.

[uberfish]

Opening comments (I didn't really delve into the actual diplomacy):

England and France: These are the standard moves for both countries to attack each other when they expect to get into the English Channel as the armies in Wales/Picardy present a convoy threat. So this is almost certainly a double stab and both countries will be trying to lobby for a German alliance.

Germany: This is a standard, flexible and noncommittal set of opening moves. He gets two builds and controls whether France gets Belgium and whether Russia gets Sweden. From a purely tactical point of view, this makes an English alliance look attractive in the short term as he would then be able to bounce both moves and set back the growth of two neighbours with a high likelihood of England helping him pick up one of the contested neutrals himself next year. If he allies with France and sends the fleet to North Sea, he gives up both Belgium and Sweden and it will be at least 1903 before they manage to invade Britain.

Austria: This is the most pro-Turkish opening imaginable. By not occupying Serbia he doesn't have a guaranteed build in the event that Turkey backstabs him. If opening to Romania, Austria should really insist that Turkey also unambiguously declare anti-Russian intentions himself by moving to Armenia. This would also remove the temptation for Turkey to stab for 2 builds in Serbia. The fleet in Trieste is also badly placed. In my opinion moving it to Albania and threatening to play scorched earth against Italy if he goes for the first turn backstab is most of the time better than resorting to the Hedgehog - although the attraction of this strategy to new players is very understandable.

Italy: Venice being forced to do nothing when it could be gaining influence in Tyrolia or Piedmont is an unfortunate consequence of the Austrian Hedgehog. The Lepanto attack is pretty ineffective with Austria's fleet not occupying Greece. Right now he should probably just take a small risk and convoy his Apulia army into Greece, as Turkey's most likely moves are either to screw Austria over by taking Serbia, or support the Austrian army to screw Russia. Tunis can wait until 1902 - Greece will be critical to next year's action no matter how the politics play out.

Turkey: Completely in the driver's seat in the Balkans as already explained. If Germany can be relied on to bounce Russia in Sweden, a simple move to Black Sea and supporting Austria in Romania would deny Russia any builds and he'd be toast. Alternatively, he can ally with Russia and take two builds now by stabbing into Serbia. In this case he has to be careful not to end up sandwiched by Russia and Italy in the aftermath.

Russia: Nothing unexpected from the opening. He has an advantage in negotiations with Turkey because he can say "hey you get two builds in 1901." The other difficulty he faces is negotiating with Germany regarding Sweden. Really, for now what he wants to see is an F/G alliance against England where England takes a while to die, but if Germany is sharp he should ask Russia for Norway in 1902 or a 1/1 trade of Sweden for Norway in this scenario.

[Amelia]

What do you guys think of Austria allying with Turkey? In my opinion it's a horrible move and should never be done, because Turkey needs to eat your centres in the end, but then in my mind allying with Turkey is probably the worse move ever because Turkey needs to eat you to win (for I,R and A).

Of course Turkey will love this though.

[uberfish]

What do you guys think of Austria allying with Turkey? In my opinion it's a horrible move and should never be done, because Turkey needs to eat your centres in the end, but then in my mind allying with Turkey is probably the worse move ever because Turkey needs to eat you to win (for I,R and A).

Well, to be honest it doesn't matter that much whom you ally with in the opening - if you want a solo win you're almost certainly going to end up stabbing them at some point, and there is no reason Austria can't be the one to stab Turkey.

[Mardoc]

Thanks, uber, for the summary. I'm curious - if Italy had wanted to show good intentions toward Turkey, what should he have done? Invaded Tyrolia, moved Rom to Ven instead of moving it south?

What do you guys think of Austria allying with Turkey?

Agreed with uberfish. Are there *any* alliances possible at this stage that can last? The only way someone is useful to you as an ally is if they're close enough that you have to eat them en route to a solo. We've seen both scooter and Bigger already looking at how to kill each other, for example, when they haven't even guaranteed a dead England yet .

[Mardoc]

So, anyone think that Tasunke might be able to recover his position now that people have his actual e-mail address?

My gut feel is no. The fact that it took this long for him to notice and comment means that people won't want to rely on him, so they won't ally.

I suppose the way he might manage is to become attractive as a junior partner. Both scooter and Bigger are more afraid of the other than they are of Tasunke, and might be willing to switch allegiances now rather than trying to set up for a later stab.

[uberfish]

So, anyone think that Tasunke might be able to recover his position now that people have his actual e-mail address?

I don't see why not, I think people will be relieved that it was just a silly mistake that made him look like he wasn't talking. It would probably be fair to extend the deadline to give him time to negotiate.

Regarding the Italy-Turkey question, the two countries don't threaten each other in the first year so there isn't really a "pro-Turkish Italian opening" unless you count attacking Austria.