Leader / Civ selection

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Ah, I see your logic there.

At the very least, at least we can take Pacal before someone else takes Pacal of freaking India.

Though I can see someone taking Bismarck of India. Though I don't know if Sommer is good enough at wonder spam.

[darrelljs]

I think that may well be the first time I've ever agreed with a post from darrell. Shock doesn't even begin to describe it.

Next thing you know you'll be arguing for the mod .

Darrell

[Lord Parkin]

LP, that's a consensus. Let's move the game along, or set a deadline that's in like a few hours.

Okay... let's say a deadline of 6 hours from this post for any changes to leader votes - or any new ones. (That'd be approximately the end of the day for those of you in the US, I believe, and early morning for the Europeans.) In other words, 08:00 UTC.

Though I can see someone taking Bismarck of India. Though I don't know if Sommer is good enough at wonder spam.

His #1 priority will be the Great Wall. Guaranteed.

[sunrise089]

(all IMHO)

But you get ahead by taking risks, right?

With all due respect, no. The key concept is variance. Say I have to race an Olympic sprinter, a daunting task. What's my best strategy if it's winner take all? Cheating. I should try to trip him, or false start, or cut a corner, or anything. I have zero chance at beating him fairly because I'm outclassed, so I need to take some major risks.

Now what's his best strategy? It's the opposite - make sure above all else he doesn't false start and be disqualified. As long as he runs a conservative race he's guaranteed victory.

Civ equivalent - In RBP7 SevenSpirits, who is even a very strong player, intuited his starting position played conservatively was unwinnable. He enacted an all-in rush. In the Aployton demogame we realized our land was poor so we made an aggressive land grab. In either case with amazing land or higher skill one is better off expanding peacefully. If your chances of victory are good you want to minimize risks and if they're bad you want to maximize them.

In this demogame we (we hope) have an advantage in skill, time commitment, attractiveness (zing!), etc. While a team like WePlayCiv may only be able to win by blindly rushing axes somewhere or attacking a warrior with their own warrior to try and raze a cap at 10% odds, we shouldn't do such things.*

* - This is only an example. I respect and fear all of the other teams. The point is we can all envision that some teams will be stronger than others.

[Dantski]

In this demogame we (we hope) have an advantage in skill, time commitment, attractiveness

I'm a little worried if you think Pacal is more attractive that Boudica :neenernee

[sunrise089]

I'm a little worried if you think Pacal is more attractive that Boudica :neenernee

I meant us. After all with 75 members we're sure to have...two...please... females

[scooter]

I do think this is much closer than some of you are realizing - for THESE settings, there's a lot of reasons IND is way more attractive than normal - the maintenance, the barbs, the espionage settings, etc. IND is easily better than CRE here IMO. I do think we're still slightly better off taking Pacal, but pretending like it's not close is crazy.

Also, that spreadsheet is way too massive now for me to dig through it and vote that way. I'm thinking there's more productive way to do votes on some of these things - pretty sure there are plugins you can do to poll via google docs with results tabulated in an excel sheet or something. I'll look into it.

[Lord Parkin]

Congratulations Mortius for picking round 6 exactly right.

Round 1:
Amelia (#4)
Bobchillingworth (#5)
Lord Parkin (#3)
Luddite (#6)
Shoot The Moon (#6)

Round 2:
SevenSpirits (#6)
Sunrise089 (#6)

Round 3:
Mortius (#5)
Nabaxo (#4)
SevenSpirits (#5)
slowcheetah (#5)

Round 4:


Round 5:
Amelia (#3)
Bobchillingworth (#6)
Cyneheard (#5!)
Luddite (#3)
Nabaxo (#5!)
Pindicator (#3)
Regoarrarr (#3)
Shoot The Moon (#3)
Slowcheetah (#3)
Sunrise089 (#4)

Round 6:
Azza (#5)
Bobchillingworth (#2)
Cyneheard (#3)
Kyan (#5)
Lord Parkin (#5)
Luddite (#1)
Mortius (#6!)
Regoarrarr (#4)
SevenSpirits (#3)
Shoot The Moon (#5)
Slowcheetah (#4)

So we have five equal winners - Bob, Luddite, SevenSpirits, Shoot The Moon, and Slowcheetah.

Final Standings:
1. Bobchillingworth - 3
1. Luddite - 3
1. SevenSpirits - 3
1. Shoot The Moon - 3
1. Slowcheetah - 3
2. Cyneheard - 2 (1 exact)
2. Mortius - 2 (1 exact)
2. Nabaxo - 2 (1 exact)
3. Amelia - 2
3. Lord Parkin - 2
3. Regoarrarr - 2
3. Sunrise089 - 2
4. Azza - 1
4. Kyan - 1
4. Pindicator - 1

[pindicator]

I do think this is much closer than some of you are realizing - for THESE settings, there's a lot of reasons IND is way more attractive than normal - the maintenance, the barbs, the espionage settings, etc. IND is easily better than CRE here IMO. I do think we're still slightly better off taking Pacal, but pretending like it's not close is crazy.

Definitely agree with this. If we ended up taking Huayna or Bismark or Ramesses I wouldn't be worried about our prospects at all. We have the talent to make those picks work.

[sunrise089]

:2dance:Ok, the epic news you've been waiting for, the minigame results: :2dance:

Players who correctly guessed one pick:

*Azza
*Kyan
*pindicator

Players who correctly guessed two picks:

*Amelia
*Cyneheard
*Lord Parkin
*Mortius
*Nabaxo
*Regoarrarr
*sunrise089

Players who correctly guessed three picks:

*Bob
*Luddite
*SevenSpirits
*ShootTheMoon
*Slowcheetah

(Reality Show Style Interlude Before Announcing the Winner)

Number of correct guesses per pick:

*Ragnar - 5
*Inca - 2
*Elizabeth - 4
*Boudica - 0 (if you're the meaner sort pretend there's a "lol" emoticon here)
*India - 10
*Darius - 11

Final results:

*Luddite - 0 "order points"
*SevenSpirits - 0 order points
*Bob - 1 order point
*ShootTheMoon - 1 order point
*Slowcheetah - 1 order point

*Second tiebreaker - Average predicated position to actual:

*Bob - 3 spots off
*ShootTheMoon - 2.66 spots off
*SlowCheetah - 2 spots off and the winner!