[SPOILERS] scooter's thread: The Honorable French

[scooter]

It's probably too late to change my orders but Bigger is weirdly trying to convince me to HLD in Spain (????) instead of order Spa-Mar like I am doing currently. His argument is odd and feels forced. I'm either A) just not understanding him or B) he's about to move into BUrgundy and wants as little in the way as possible . Yay paranoia? Whatever, I'm committed. If he stabs now it'd be foolish and he couldn't do much against me this year anyways. It'd seal up a Turkey solo anyways.

[scooter]

Well that turn went flawlessly . And my paranoia was probably unfounded.

[Gaspar]

FWIW, I don't really like the possibility of Bigger stabbing Rowain right now. Far more worried about Turkey getting too strong and in my mind better to wait until England is closer to the mop-up phase. But just my two cents.

[scooter]

Yeah. I'm mulling over some kind of stab. A 2-way FG is just not possible. Problem is it's just not possible this turn.

[Gaspar]

Pretty sure the Rosetta Stone is required to figure out what precisely TT and Tatan were trying to do in the east. My head hurts. Also and still think German stab was dumb.

That is all.

[scooter]

Pretty sure the Rosetta Stone is required to figure out what precisely TT and Tatan were trying to do in the east. My head hurts. Also and still think German stab was dumb.

That is all.

Yeah coordination for them has appeared to be really bad lately.

As for Bigger, the problem is he was just bent on getting a center. I don't know if it was a keep up with France thing or what, but he was very much set on getting a center no matter what. I ended up deciding against trying to talk him out of it, so I just went with it. I probably should have tried to convince him otherwise, but I didn't want him to get all suspicious of me trying to talk him out of a center or something.

[scooter]

My moves that I submitted:








(Seriously, for when you read this, very sorry Bigger and Waterbat... I wanted a more interesting game than an inevitable slog towards an FGT. Giant explanation and back-story is forthcoming - it's done, just need to finish editing it.)

[scooter]

Also, this giant explanation that's coming... I don't actually know that somebody won't screw me, so if I look really silly, it's because I wrote this up in the hour before the deadline (it seriously took a whole hour), so if I am talking like it was a success and it wasn't, well that's why .

[scooter]

OK, I have some SEEERRRIOUS catching up to do. I want to detail what led up to all this. Nearly all my conversations have taken place by chat, and I try to avoid chatlogs as people rarely read them, so I'll try to summarize everything as best I can. I'll break it down into theaters to make it easier to follow.

Planning the stab

I actually talked to Cyneheard at least a week ago about this - he wasn't really following this game but he had read up on my thread (and mine only). So I outlined the situation. Germany wants an FG 2-way with me, but I pointed out to Cyneheard that this is actually crazy it's just not really possible. More realistically, it was going to be an FGT draw. I expressed to him that I didn't like the idea of a 3-way draw, ESPECIALLY since I was France with an absent England and a friendly Italy. That just seems like a completely wasted opportunity. So I asked him his opinion on a stab of Germany and what he thought. He liked the idea, but it wasn't quite time yet. Then the previous fall turns happened, and things looked like this:



I knew I was getting a build, and Germany was REALLY out of position. The build/disband phase was on, and England needed to disband as well - most likely army. So that morning I had a chat with Gaspar. I cut it down to the essentials and removed a lot of stuff, and if even THAT is too long, I underlined all the key points of the chat.

scooter: got a couple mins?
Gaspar: sure
scooter: for diplomacy
ok, thinking over the merits of stabbing germany.
not crazy about an inevitable FGT draw
Gaspar: Yeah, that's definitely what we're headed towards right now
scooter: he seems set on making short-term decisions frequently. so at minimum i'd like the game to not be dull
anyways, I expect molach to disband his army.
map here btw: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/16549110/RBDipl...etreat.jpg
Gaspar: The have to get a center thing is definitely a new player thing
scooter: yeah
he's expecting me to build Mar, I can build an army there with no suspicion. should be easy to get him to build A Ber
and he'll move against Russia most likely
my position would look non-threatening to him... but in the spring, I could get armies into Tyr, Bur, Ruh, and Bel
this would depend on talking down italy, but given how non-threatening he's been, that should be doable
but basically, bel-ruh, pie-tyr, mar-bur, and wal-bel convoy
england could likely bounce him out of Nth. and Rowain sure isn't friendly to G
I think that's a situation where Munich is a lock to fall, and a 2nd is possible with some luck
Gaspar: Yeah, I would think both TT and Rowain have too many of their own problems to really get involved
Only question really is can you make sure to avoid that stalemating and just further improving T's position
scooter: Yeah. I look at the move this way longterm. it's riskier and decreases my overall chances of any kind of win, but increases my chance at solo
Gaspar: I think Bigger definitely needs to be stabbed at some point - FG just isn't a game winner. My only question would be if there will be a better opportunity later
not entirely sure there will be, though
scooter: yeah that's what I can figure. I just fear every year it gets harder
and I could go gunboat on everyone and cruise to an FGT so that's just not real interesting
i'm trying to imagine a way to set it up for the following year, but to sell Bigger, I'd NEED to attack Italy this year
Gaspar: Yeah, though I suppose you could always flip TT back if you had to
scooter: possibly yeah. Just going to be a much easier sell this year than next.
I'd think
as I can take an Italy center this year I'm pretty sure
Gaspar: Yeah, if the year plays out with you still with FG, Biggers going to mostly just head in and try and pick up an English center?
scooter: he wants both centers taken this year
Gaspar: so if we wait, the main advantage is he has more units out of position in england, main disadvantage is he has another center
or 2 centers lol
might be easier if he hadn't left nth
scooter: yeah
no kidding. now he wants my support on both counts
since he NEEDED that center this year
Gaspar: lol
scooter: so yeah. units would probably be more out of position next year... but his army would be much stronger probably
Gaspar: yeah, thats a definite downside
other option is suppose is to stab in fall
so his units are out of position
scooter: and for germany standards, his A is not strong now
Gaspar: but he gets no centers
10:38 AM
but that leaves you less well positioned to attack than your spring orders would
scooter: yeah. not sure I can snipe a center without a spring setup
so it'd be about setting up for the following year
and he'd be in Nth + Nwg, which is real good for him
Gaspar: yeah, more I think about it more I think just go for it

Basic reasons:

1) FGT is boring, and it's especially uninspiring given I am France and have had a top position all game.
2) Make the game more exciting
3) If I'm ever going to stab, this is probably the best time as he's very light on armies right now
4) Rowain and Molach aren't best buds with Bigger, so it's not hard to get them on my side for this
5) Germany has made quite a few very short-termist decisions, which makes me wary of a longterm alliance with him. His stab of Russia gained him just 1 center, and not only that it slowed him down against England, which meant I had to do most of the work to get him into England. So I feel like he may very well stab me eventually (TG vs F makes a ton of sense), so why not be the one on top?

The Molach theater

But that means I have a lot of work to do to actually make it happen. First, I needed to make sure Molach disbanded his army. If he keeps the army, I can't afford to convoy out, and therefore I need to abort the plan. However, Molach previously offered to vassalize to Germany. My understanding was that G led him on and ultimately dropped him, and Molach didn't appreciate it too much. So let's see if I can't capitalize on that. However, Molach may not be interested in survival. So let's see:

Hey Molach. In continuing with our emails being pretty straight to the point - here's a weird but serious question for you. Would you rather just be eliminated quickly given your position where you can't really win, or would you be receptive to proposals that meant you got to survive for longer? Completely serious question - I really don't know what you would prefer.

If the proposal came jointly from France/Germany: I don't really need to survive that bad, I will harbor no bitterness if just taken out. I can always blame ...the cabinet. On a side note, I'm willing to (passively) help england become more french rather than german, if that is of interest to you and if you think you could seize edi without germany getting mad. I'm losing london, so might as well abandon it.

If France (and russia), on the other hand, want/need my help stabbing Germany, My countrymen would be delighted to help, and be thrilled at the chance of seeing them off to an early grave before us. We'll then live happily at thine mercy as long as thou wish.

Good. Not laying TOO many cards on the table yet.

The proposal is only coming from me. I'd like to make the game interesting so to speak rather than a dull trudge towards an FGT which is our current path. I'll have more to say about this, but here's my first proposal. If you agree to it, we can explore this further.

If you will disband your army rather than one of your fleets, I will convoy out of the isles this spring.

Let me know if that's acceptable to you. You may have been planning to disband the army anyways, but I just thought I would check on this first as it's the most important part IMO.

Army disband is the order sent in, yes.

And I can support the avoiding dullness, was one of my selling points to Bigger. He didn't buyinto that though.

Great. Sure enough, he disbands the army, then sends this:

your command is my wish...

Time to lay the cards down on the table.

Basically, I'm pretty sure you can keep Germany out of Nth by supporting yourself into Nth. He's wanting my support to get into there, and I'm not going to give it to him this time. I'd recommend Lon-Nth with Edi's support, as I'm pretty sure he wants to move Nwy-Nwg and then get me to help him into Nth so he can take Edi in the fall. So in this case you'd have Edi covered and you'd bounce the Nth. So yeah, basically support yourself into Nth. You'll see that I'll convoy Wales into Belgium and leave you alone.

I will do all I can to ensure you outlive Germany in return for your continued help. I won't promise more than I can deliver so I can't promise more than that, but assuming things go as planned on my front with him, there's no way he'll be taking your centers anytime soon... Specifically, I mostly want a buffer in the northern water from Germany (where he can match me) while I significantly hurt him on land where he can't match me. Once I do that, he'll have to delete some of those fleets, and things will get much easier in the north.

Fair deal, and moves are expected as well. Order sent.

I would be dead after fall regardless of defense (I think...) so going along with this. Down with germany. He had his chance, after all.

Understand about no promises about a long-lived and merry future, but I'll have a slightly higher chance now than dead, anyway. We'll see.

-M

Beautiful. Next, Italy.

Calming Italy

I then had a chat with Italy. See, the one problem here is I HAD to build in Marseilles in the winter. Paris would be a telegraph to Germany that I was coming, and there's no reason at all to build in Brest. However, building an army in Marseilles was defensible since it could be sold as combining with Piedmont to get Venice. The problem is, this would FREAK Italy out. Twinkletoes then came out and said if I didn't leave him alone, he'd throw things to Turkey. I didn't really buy this, and I did discover later that he made the same threat to Mattimeo about me. So I told him I'd like to work with him, and I would explain my plans, but he needed to keep them confidential. He agreed. So I took a risk and explained to him my plans, and promised him I would leave him alone. I offered to help, but there wasn't really a good way. I did tell him I'd be building in Marseilles which he did not like, but I reiterated to him several times I would not be attacking him. Hopefully he believed me and just defended against Mattimeo as best as he can.

Russia

Not much here, mostly just making sure Rowain was very anti-German. He was. This was the easy part.

Setting up Germany

Ok, a lot went into this. First off, they wanted to build an army in Munich. This was really NOT what I wanted, so I pushed for Berlin. He sent me a message recapping the previous year, so I'll cut most of that, but his last sentence was this:

I haven't decided whether to build in MUN or BER yet. Do you have any thoughts?

Again, other things in these emails (trying to unravel the east mainly), but I'll just keep the pertinent parts in so this is easy to process.

As for builds - yeah, I'll probably build something in Mar - either army or fleet. Obviously I'd prefer a Berlin build from you over Munich since Munich is better for handling Russia and I'd like to take Italy myself and secure my position down there. Plus the obvious of "Berlin is further away from me" .

Was also doing some simple counting... If you take just 1 italian core, we've secured half the centers (assuming England finally succumbs). We need to make sure we get all 4 of them to definitively take the lead. A munich build seemed more flexible in that regard. If we get stymied in the west and TT turtles up, we might be in for some trouble.

We had a couple random chats and stuff and Bigger sent an email consenting to build in Berlin, but this comment from me was my primary defense to push him to build Berlin:

But yeah, I still prefer a build in Berlin over Munich just to give breathing space, even if it means a slight slowdown on Italy (not expecting it to slow me down though). I can actually guarantee Venice by myself with an A Mar build. You have a slight window now to move on Russia before Russia is fully back on his feet, so I suggest you take advantage of it. Pretty soon he'll either be back to full strength or Turkey will swoop in, but for now he's still a bit vulnerable.

He built Berlin, so that was done. You know the rest. I did do some pushing on this season's moves (I'll detail that in another post probably as this is massive), but the above was the bulk of the work. I've been very busy!

[scooter]

Ok, that went fine. I tried to get him to order Berlin-Prussia, but unfortunately he didn't do that or else I'd be in even better shape. It'll take VERY bad luck to prevent me from gaining a center from Germany, and if I get some good luck I could take two. It'll be a slight guessing game.