WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[Selrahc]

I was attempting through Day 1 to have people give up their names of their own accord so Marr might implicate themselves.

Eh. Hmm. You weren't really doing it... for some reason or another that I can't really work out. You made 2 posts about general name claims. One of them bringing up the idea in post 24(with no opinion attached, either for or against), one of them asking for a synthesis of the results in post 308. Is that it? This studiedly disaffected mentioning of the concept?

Your only other discussion of names throughout the entirety of day and night 1 was to ask Tasunke about his name. So it kind of looks like it is. But that doesn't really seem like you're doing anything at all to make people(plural) give up their names or encourage the idea of a mass name claim.

It doesn't really fit with my general theory of you as a lyncher who doesn't know target. But it also doesn't fit with your presentation of yourself as someone who was out to expose names so that he could catch a NAPper. Something is missing from the picture...

Its weird how earlier you said that you weren't pressing to lynch me but that my claim could not stand? Pretty contradictory.

How so? I am applying as much pressure as I can muster on you because I don't believe you for a second. That isn't the same as expecting that you will be lynched as a result. People can not be allowed to react to an announcement like you made with complacency. Going forward, people have to realize that an alien is inherently suspicious. I trust I've made things a big enough issue that people will think about what you're saying more than they otherwise would. If I'm lucky maybe you'll actually let us in on what your real goals are.

My main point is, and has been, that you aren't telling us everything and that I don't trust what you are telling us.

[Molach]

(After 472) I don't think you can make the assumption that all 14 faction leaders are in the game.*

On a slight tangent, I hate how we nameless are being discriminated against. All the faction leaders are truth-tellers and those who posted nameless before Lewwyn's call are lying?**

* This is correct, guess I used assume wrong here. Used it like norwegian "anta" which has a broader meaning. "Believe strongly" or even "most likely", there is room for doubt in this statement.

** What, 1 out of 7 (or rather 6) is NAP? We should expect 1 out of 4. So what that one nameless is lying about name. Nothing we can really do about it now anyway.
Likely 4 others are lying and appearing to be helpful and killing us at night. 4 faction leaders for all I know. Indeed, why would we generic dudes form a NAP, we don't run these nations, our leaders do that [last sentence not to be taken seriously]

[waterbat]

Ok, I was afraid I'd come back to 200 posts. I guess half that isn't too bad.

so recapping the day's items so far that I wanted to comment on:

Prokhor Zakharov (catwalk) was assassinated.
- Isn't meiz always supposed to be nightkilled first?

catwalk was immune to other night actions

catwalk had a vig shot
- there has been speculation as to who catwalk suspected, but maybe he was killed because of his vig shot? The NAP just got lucky?


We get clued in about the UN charter.
- Does any villager have more info on the charter? Perhaps Bigger will revoke the charter on his own and this is just another way of saying "you cannot use your power until after day 3/4/whatever"
- atrocities seem like evil things - if we have the chance, do we want the charter revoked? I fear the NAP might have their own atrocities to unleash.

The Nap supreme leader left us a note.
- I immediately took this as one of the NAPs (the leader?) using a power to communicate anonymously. Noone else seems to have picked that up - am I crazy? I know it was a pointless message.

Llewyn claimed to be H'minee
- Llewyn drops the H'minee bomb on us - I initially didn't believe Selrahc's suspicions - just like BRick, it seemed too much a flavor reason to convict Llewyn. But... it is hard to ignore the "threats to humanity" part of the role PM. The only way I think Llewyn fakes this if he is actually H'minee's counterpart and is claiming to bring H'minee out from hiding. I think we will find out tonight (end of day2) - as the real H'minee probably wouldn't claim until deadline of the night phase. This seems so far-fetched, but hell, I'll put it out there.....

Selrahc jumped on him for claiming alien
- continuing to be strong on the third faction theme - first mindworms, now aliens. I have to agree that this looks designed to sow confusion, but again - the PM is clear that there are threats to humanity.

Bob shares similar sentiments about the UN charter
- I'd stress "if you can do so without bringing serious danger to the village" part

Jkaen and Injera's push onto Molach
-Im a little suspicious of - it looks coordinated - like the start of a wagon

Serdoa, not content with name claiming only - pushes to collect powers as well?
- I dont see how this would help us - I fall into the Jkaen camp - rather not give out that info at this time.

Serdoa votes novice
I would think that novice wouldn't be that obvious as to object to a name reveal. later though, novice claims Sinder Rose... so... either Marr claimed no name OR Marr was provided a safe name from one of his NAP buddies - and that NAPpie claimed no name. This second scenario is less likely and more risky as it exposes 2 people to the name seer (if there is one).

Meiz' wall of text
- Very good identification and posting of villager vibes. casts some dirt on me - I know that day 1, Selrahc's argument and Mattimeo's follow up were the best arguments I had seen all day for stringing someone up. Yeah, I didn't have my own ideas on that - well I had one that I knew wouldnt stick... more on that next.


My biggest Day 1 disappointment

My biggest suspicion on day 1 was on Zakalwe

Again, maybe its bitterness from last game seeping over, but where is the villager Zak from that game? He latched onto my innocent ass and wouldnt let go! I was kind of looking forward to him doing that to someone else this game..... and nothing. I didn't even get that satisfaction. Even look at his accusation this time - its half-cooked.

Also - did he follow up my silence with scathing words? No - he asked the group "for some company" ! His heart just isn't into it. If he was on the hunt, things would be different.

I knew it wouldnt stick day 1, also i wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt - thinking he would use the day 1 info to nail someone hard! But no, its me again. This time he isn't even doing me right.



Apparently this is a huge cross post as I started it hours ago. (20:30 GMT-ish). Catching up now.

[waterbat]

dontcha know? He always gets a free pass on lurking. Everyone tried to explain this to me last game, how he was always a lurker so it was cool. Can't say i still understand it, but i don't agree with it. Might as well put my vote back on novice since he's always a wolf, if i'm going to agree with that kind of thinking...

I hate this idea. Not because we let a possible wolf get to the endgame! After last game, I'll argue that its worse for us to allow a villager who is clueless get to the end game.

If you are lurking, you probably aren't paying attention to the game. And if you aren't paying attention to the game, you are just going to vote randomly at the end when people that are invested in the game need your damn help.

In the absence of other 'evidence', count me in on the lynch of any lurker.

[Molach]

Votecount dammit.
I know at least that-
Molach (2) Injera, Jkaen
Pindicator (2) Molach Slowcheetah

Selrahc has mabye 3? Some guys with 1.

So not in my best interest atm, but I think Selrahc's actions here are unlikely to imply he is NAP. And like I said earlier, I think it's typically a villager (that, or brave/foolhardy wolf ) who will come out forcefully like this on the issue.

Do folks voting for him think Selrahc is the missing alien? If so he did claim no name before Lewwyn's claim, so he was kinda safe for a good while. He then draws this attention to himself right away? Mabye not?

So if not missing alien, you think he is NAPster. He could be protecting his fellow NAPster, mabye because this person hasn't claimed anything yet and is in danger. Or mabye he just sees this as a good way to get a mislynch. After my 3 total games of being wolf I would not go about a mislynch this way, I would raise the thought, see if anyone else picks it up. He has gotten 3 votes (I think, going on memory here) because of this and is leading (I think) lynch. So turned out quite bad for a wolf.

So silly wolf or sincere but possibly misguided villager.

Could still be other reasons why people vote, just looking at the alien crossfire thing here.

And I think more people could join the discussion soon.

Now really to bed.

[Lewwyn]

I don't think Selrahc is Marr. I think there's a possibility he's running with the NAPpers running interference. And before you start calling a play like that silly, its something that Selrahc usually does. Make a slightly off play "that a wolf wouldn't do". Somehow though Selrahc is always killed when he's scum. And often early. He's not my final vote yet, but according to him I'm not his.

[Bobchillingworth]

Sure.
I have made some assumptions. I assume that all 14 faction leaders are in the game. This means 7 are non-faction leaders. First day showed these to have no name, and over the course of the day several people said they had no name, just a title, i.e. one of these magnificent se7en.

[...]

Next bit I did not explain. But I assume that the alien did not claim a name out of the blue. It would be very likely that the name was ...taken already. 'no name' claim is only thing that makes sense.


Only other possibility is that the GM left out one leader from the game and instead gave this name as a safe identity to the evil alien. But I assumed that Bigger wanted all his 14 childhood friends in the game, so instead gave the alien a safe noname claim. Like in FFH game 'you know there is not a thinker in the game'.

I'm sorry, but this is terrible reasoning. First of all, Bigger made it clear at the start that everybody could claim a name safely for role-play purposes. That makes it extremely unlikely that anybody would have to invent a fake role on the spot because everything else was "taken"- surely any play with a bad guy role will have a special cover identity, as was the case in the FFH game.

Second, your logic for why Marr would be more likely to be a "no-name" than one of the faction leaders is incredibly thin. Bigger wouldn't make Marr or any other double-identity Wolf one of the faction heads because he wouldn't want their name to be "fake" or whatever? Nonsense. I'm voting for you Molach, because I think you are trying to divert suspicion from the faction leaders (in like the most clumsy way possible).

I don't think Selrahc is Marr. I think there's a possibility he's running with the NAPpers running interference.

I don't think Selrahc is a member of the NAP- although we all know that "a wolf would never do this" is an often poor reason to not suspect somebody, I seriously do have difficulty seeing any wolf spending so much energy pushing the 3rd party theory. What would the point even be, it's not really distracting anybody & it's just earning him lynch votes. Wouldn't surprise me if he was a 3rd party player tho, as part of some sort of refuge-in-audacity play Not going to vote for him just on the basis of plausible dramatic irony however.

[Sareln]

Apologies in advance for the large wall of text. Everything is in chronological order except the last two past the "----", since there's on the same topic. Final thoughts at the bottom. Mostly reacting to Molach, Serdoa, and Lewwyn.

If you have time please be more specific about why me.
I am not happy with 'reasons mentioned by others' from a new guy and neither should you be. A few reasons pertain to 'others' previous experiences playing with me - no good for you. So why do YOU suspect me, I can reply to that.

About Selrahc, I think it unlikely wolf play in general to get so worked up and stubborn about what Lewwyn did. He is trying to get Lewwyn lynched, so if you think Selrahc is a wolf then Lewwyn is innocent - so Selrahc makes a very noticable attack on a villager. So I think Selrahc is leaning village on this issue. Just how I see this recent development.

This presupposes 2 factions, no lynchers. I'm not sold that that's true.

Being reactive is easy, because both Wolf and Villager play it from the same mental place.

Again I'm not pushing the rest here to claim, I suppose it is most likely that the 4 are HUMAN faction leaders and that the evil alien has indeed claimed no name. I think no real need to state which leader, faction could be indicative of power, so the remaining 4 might as well not say which they are. Name-seer going after the nameless 8 seems like a good idea.

Suppose Bigger might purposely have left out a name to mess with our counting too.

And if Maar has another faction leader name instead of a specialist? That would send a nameseer way out of bounds now wouldn't it?

Yes, basically what I believe is simple: Lewwyn's counterpart is a wolf. And that wolf is novice. Do I have any more then the above? No, because novice didn't state much on Day 1 and already stated that he won't be around much Day 2. But do I have any better leads? No, none. Everything else seems for me right now even less likely to hit a wolf. Therefore I'll rather take chances on someone I at least believe has higher then average chances to be a wolf.

I read Novice that way initially as well, got an alien role, so mention/ask about aliens early in the game to point to later when he's accused and can say: "nope, wouldn't I have not mentioned it at all if I had an alien role?" His excuse makes sense though (Played only original Alpha Centauri, so didn't know about the Alien factions).

I am not sure at all, just mentioning the possibility. But my conclusion was pretty clear, wasn't it? Have no specifics about aliens, gave my best analysis about what is going on about this. Call it stupid, what I was outlining happened in an earlier game. As an example, if you wish. See some of Selrahc's earlier posts, he talks more about a possible alien conspiracy.

If no third faction, Lewwyn is either NAP, who is trying to mislynch Marr, or villager who is trying to lynch Marr. Marr has claimed no name (in my opinion beyond reasonable doubt). Think Marr is an innocent villager after a fake nameclaim?

Disagree with your beyond reasonable doubt thought. Also, if Lewwyn and Maar are gunning for the other, neither needs to be NAP. Could just be a straight-up chaos addition.

Also thestick, I think we have 3 NAP members among the named people.

I don't follow Lewwyn. Why?

I don't think Selrahc is Marr. I think there's a possibility he's running with the NAPpers running interference. And before you start calling a play like that silly, its something that Selrahc usually does. Make a slightly off play "that a wolf wouldn't do". Somehow though Selrahc is always killed when he's scum. And often early. He's not my final vote yet, but according to him I'm not his.

Selrahc is always open to unconventional wolf plays. I played wolf with him before and that's pretty much how he opened our wolf-thread if I recall correctly. Nothing really came of it that game, but that was because I think events overtook us. Remember that the wolves got prep time for this game, so wolves had more time to develop and deploy day 1 gambits as well.

----

dontcha know? He always gets a free pass on lurking. Everyone tried to explain this to me last game, how he was always a lurker so it was cool. Can't say i still understand it, but i don't agree with it. Might as well put my vote back on novice since he's always a wolf, if i'm going to agree with that kind of thinking...

I hate this idea. Not because we let a possible wolf get to the endgame! After last game, I'll argue that its worse for us to allow a villager who is clueless get to the end game.

If you are lurking, you probably aren't paying attention to the game. And if you aren't paying attention to the game, you are just going to vote randomly at the end when people that are invested in the game need your damn help.

In the absence of other 'evidence', count me in on the lynch of any lurker.

I may lurk, but I do my damn homework, and I think that's largely why folks seem to be okay with it in the first few days. At least that's my theory.

----

I'm voting Molach.

He seems too certain, and a lot of his assumptions are implied rather than explicit. Are they buried because he isn't assuming, but rather knows, and so forgets to include them? That's my thought for now.

[BRickAstley]

Sorry I haven't posted much today, I've been gone for the last 7 hours for the first checkup for an upcoming offspring, which is somewhat important.

I'll have to make sure I re-read through all of the posts before I vote to make sure I'm not putting my foot in my mouth and have to retract my vote again, but from this first skimming I agree that Molach is very shady, though that is a very easy opinion to hold. I'm also not sold on Waterbat's coming in with a nice big long post full of various little tidbits of interest that seem to want to distract people from any of the NAP-finding progress that we're actually getting today.

[Bigger]

Current vote Tally:

Molach (4): Injera, Jkaen, bobchillingsworth, Sareln
Selrahc (3): Pindicator, Maniac, Lewwyn
slowcheetah (2): Qgqqqq, mattimeo
pindicator (2): molach, slowcheetah
Lewwyn: Selrahc
novice: Serdoa
waterbat: zakalwe
maniac: novice
zakalwe - waterbat

Not voting: BrickAstley, thestick, meiz

As usual, check your own vote to make sure I'm not mistaken.