WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[Lewwyn]

Couple things. The run on Molach seems a litle undeserved. I think that it is very plausible that the wolves killed catwalk in order to frame Molach and save thestick. Instead of saying, "Oh Catwalk was voting for thestick." We get people saying, "Oh Catwalk suspected Molach." I think that's a setup and those who started the Molach wagon using that reasoning are suspect.

Second, I guess there are three nappers among the named players because thats how I would set it up. I would write out my name list assign roles and faction to the names then roll the players and assign them a role/name. This way I can assure a balance of non-named to named NAPpers. But again thats from my perspective and in the end we should forget about all of that and instead go after people we think our suspicious. Wolf hunting based on post analysis always trumps meta hunting.

[Injera]

I'm not trying to shut down discussion or anything, but I don't really see where all this is really leading us to a useful strategy to hunt NAPs. Even if we could comfortably say, "Yes, there is definitely a named NAP hiding amongst the nameless" (and plenty would disagree with that) how would we even use that information? Lynch the most suspicious nameless person each day? That doesn't seem like it's going to work out very well.

I guess, I'm feeling pretty numb to a lot of the discussion today. There's been some well-reasoned stuff (and some not), but it just feels way too premature to be worrying about it. Sure, if we have a name seer and the name seer catches someone, this is relevant. Or if it's closer to the endgame and our picture is more clear, sure. But now?

[Injera]

The run on Molach seems a litle undeserved. I think that it is very plausible that the wolves killed catwalk in order to frame Molach and save thestick. Instead of saying, "Oh Catwalk was voting for thestick." We get people saying, "Oh Catwalk suspected Molach." I think that's a setup and those who started the Molach wagon using that reasoning are suspect.

I agree that's a bad reason to vote for someone, but I don't think anyone voting for Molach now used that rationale, unless I missed something.

[Qgqqqqq]

I'm personally suspecting Novice because of some suspicious posts.
i.e You are not by process of elimination X leader, which sounds very dodgy considering the number without a leadership role.
What is the U.N Charter?

[Molach]

I wake up to this?

First off, I have to work more diligently today so less time to post. And workforce is going out for drinks tonight so only phone access then, meaning not so much quoting and I can't go back & forth and check who said what as much.

Right.

I'm sorry, but this is terrible reasoning. First of all, Bigger made it clear at the start that everybody could claim a name safely for role-play purposes. That makes it extremely unlikely that anybody would have to invent a fake role on the spot because everything else was "taken"- surely any play with a bad guy role will have a special cover identity, as was the case in the FFH game.

Read my posts again if you are a villager. This is precicely what I think as well. I went over other possible cases, and stated why they were unlikely. So read again. I have terrible reasoning yet still believe the same as you do? What the hell would that make YOUR reasoning then? Read again if you are a villager.

Second, your logic for why Marr would be more likely to be a "no-name" than one of the faction leaders is incredibly thin. Bigger wouldn't make Marr or any other double-identity Wolf one of the faction heads because he wouldn't want their name to be "fake" or whatever? Nonsense. I'm voting for you Molach, because I think you are trying to divert suspicion from the faction leaders (in like the most clumsy way possible).

Ill actually reply to this one. If Bigger gives a person a faction leader's name as cover, well that faction leader will not be in the game. I think it more likely that the cover role provided was a generic noname one. Like 'thinker'. You say my logic for why this is more likely is thin. You actually think it is more likely that Bigger "wasted" a perfectly good faction name to provide a cover when there already were 7 unnamed roles out there? Really? Anyway this is not 100 % thing but I say more likely. I also stated earlier that were talking about 1 ENEMY among 7 NONAMES. You should expect to find a NAP among any 4 players.
"I think you are trying to divert suspicion from the faction leaders "
I am NOT a faction leader.
I am VOTING for a faction leader
There are probably 4 other NAPs in addition to the mystery alien.
I also say that this is to help narrow it down for a name-scry, or to keep in name to the endgame, not that we should suspect&lynch unnamed guys.
So instead of getting more worked up now I'll instead just suggest you read my posts a bit better. Again.

I don't think Selrahc is a member of the NAP- although we all know that "a wolf would never do this" is an often poor reason to not suspect somebody, I seriously do have difficulty seeing any wolf spending so much energy pushing the 3rd party theory. What would the point even be, it's not really distracting anybody & it's just earning him lynch votes. Wouldn't surprise me if he was a 3rd party player tho, as part of some sort of refuge-in-audacity play Not going to vote for him just on the basis of plausible dramatic irony however.

Here you might have said "Like Molach said" or "Agree with Molach's reasoning here" because I have posted something very similar. Except the "a wolf would never do that" bit because I posted before Lewwyn commented that Selrahc was known for doing unorthodox plays as wolf. Why not give me cred on that reasoning? Hopefully because you just didn't read well enough and missed it.
So that last bit is why I think you are not really evil and purposely going for my mislynch, but that you just didn't read my posts well enough.

[Molach]

I'm not trying to shut down discussion or anything, but I don't really see where all this is really leading us to a useful strategy to hunt NAPs. Even if we could comfortably say, "Yes, there is definitely a named NAP hiding amongst the nameless" (and plenty would disagree with that) how would we even use that information? Lynch the most suspicious nameless person each day? That doesn't seem like it's going to work out very well.

I guess, I'm feeling pretty numb to a lot of the discussion today. There's been some well-reasoned stuff (and some not), but it just feels way too premature to be worrying about it. Sure, if we have a name seer and the name seer catches someone, this is relevant. Or if it's closer to the endgame and our picture is more clear, sure. But now?

Hey you.
I made those exact same points. This is useful for name seer or in endgame. We are probably after 5 NAPs, about 1 in 4. So 1 Alien NAP among 7 nonamed...nothing to do about that.

You are voting for me still. Did you check my earlier postings? Am I acting like the wolf last game or villager game before that? Or are they too close to tell, because I did try to appear villagerish as a wolf? These are not rhetorical questions, I do not know how I appear to others. But you are voting because you say I'm acting like a wolf so you should take the effort to substansiate your vote.

[Molach]

I'm voting Molach.

He seems too certain, and a lot of his assumptions are implied rather than explicit. Are they buried because he isn't assuming, but rather knows, and so forgets to include them? That's my thought for now.

Got some homework for you too. See the first multi-faction wolf game, hosted by noblehelium (ww12 I think). I remember being absolutely certain that Tasunke had to be evil. This would be perhaps a bit over halfway through. See me argue for his lynch, based on how I perceived noblehelium would have set up the game. I'm very certain then. (Also wrong, but that is beside the point).

After that, check out last game, ww 14. Am I really stubbornly certain about anything there? (Too busy lurking probably)

I actually think I explained most of my assumptions, I know I did not state one and Bob asked about it, so please say which other 'lot' I make. For what it is worth I think that if I had known a lot about setup because I were a wolf I would have had to be more careful. Just my thought about that.

[Molach]

Last thought before work. Realized from reading Bobs post. Again. Bigger did say it was safe to roleplay. So a guy starting to post as Marr suddenly getting jumped on by Lewwyn would find that rightfully unfair. So obvious that if Lewwyn is for real then it means that Marr must have been warned in pm about not claiming his true name. This also means the two late nameless claimers are no more suspicious than the rest.
Right.

[Meiz]

I think that's a reasonable use of a first page vote, and his response didn't leave me enthused.

Sure, but you kept it pointlessly there almost the whole day.

Except I did- you just mentioned it above. I thought Bob had made himself an easy target and I preemptively jumped in to try prevent a bandwagon starting on him. I tried to keep Tasunke off the block as well. I didn't put anyone up myself because I didn't have any strong wolf leads.

You chose Tas in the end, despite defending him originally. Clearly you seemed to think thestick was more innocent than Tas. So from your point of view, two likely villagers were being pushed on top, and you did nothing to bring alternative options to the table.

Seriously, nothing original? Sure, slowcheetah got my eyes open, but I called out his Post 282 as scummy as soon as I read it. Does no one else think that "Heh"- as part of a general, paternal tone to the post- is significant?

I don't see how it is. What, you think he was so happy Napper that he couldn't stop himself from writing "Heh" in his theory? It seems to me that it comes from the fact that he repeated the same argument for both voting groups.

Keep in mind, being a wolf the last two games has taught me some village tricks, too. Asking Lewwyn for a list of names might seem like fluff, but I didn't want to see a list, I wanted to see his reaction.

What kind of reaction were you trying to get?

If Bigger gives a person a faction leader's name as cover, well that faction leader will not be in the game. I think it more likely that the cover role provided was a generic noname one. Like 'thinker'. You say my logic for why this is more likely is thin. You actually think it is more likely that Bigger "wasted" a perfectly good faction name to provide a cover when there already were 7 unnamed roles out there? Really? Anyway this is not 100 % thing but I say more likely.

I don't see any reason to assume this. More like 50/50.

[Injera]

xposting with Meiz

You are voting for me still. Did you check my earlier postings? Am I acting like the wolf last game or villager game before that? Or are they too close to tell, because I did try to appear villagerish as a wolf? These are not rhetorical questions, I do not know how I appear to others. But you are voting because you say I'm acting like a wolf so you should take the effort to substansiate your vote.

Yeah, I burnt the midnight oil to read through all of your posts from the last three games. No offense, but after reading about 50 of your long-form posts back to back out of context...

The posts I was thinking of from last game where ones like these two, where you were throwing a lot of dirt around:
WW14 Link #1 and WW14 Link #2.

Those are much scummier than I remembered them being at the time, and not really similar to the post I called out. You didn't have much of a post record in 13 due to your early death (sorry about that) and in 12 you were very quiet but quite keen on meta issues. The real takeaway is that your play this game is unprecedented relative to those other games in terms of activity. I think that's a village tell.

I still find the "Heh" out of place, but judging a non-native English speaker solely on an interjection isn't a smart way to catch scum.

I'm also not sold on Waterbat's coming in with a nice big long post full of various little tidbits of interest that seem to want to distract people from any of the NAP-finding progress that we're actually getting today.

BRickAstley, I hope the check-up on the offspring went well. I have to ask, why such a strong reaction to waterbat's post?