The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[mostly_harmless]

T19 - 3240 BC

I had expected rival worst in life expectancy to decrease to 57, but it has stayed put at 62. Maybe either the Spanish or the CFC has both received forests growth, or there is something else that has happened.

Maybe a team finished a tile improvement = food resource on river to give extra health?

mh

[kjn]

@sullla

The Turn analysis sheet in the C&D document contains a lot of my current guesses and various notes. My current estimates from GNP changes are:

1) Wheel/Pottery: our team, German team
2) Mining/Bronze Working: Spanish Apolyton, probably CFC
3) Animal Husbandry: We Play Civ, Univers, Apolyton, maybe CFC

CFC are either on the BW or the AH path, but at a guess they're on the BW path. They settled in place, so are probably a bit away from their cow.

We will have to check for GNP changes when CivFr finishes their turn. No discount means going Wheel->Pottery, single discount means BW, double discount AH.

Pottery is interesting for the Germans since they're EXP, and I've also noted them doing sims in some of their demo games, so they might have pegged to the need for early commerce (ich kann ein bisschen Deutsch verstehen, aber ich bin sehr schlecht).

@m_h

That's of course a possibility, and would fit with the theory I have that some have riverside food resources instead of lakeside.

[kjn]

I decided to do a quick demos check after Apolyton, Univers, CivPlayers, and the Spanish ended turn (and WPC have been logged in a bunch of times), but got some very interesting results:

WPC have switched off their old commerce-heavy configuration. But the GNP check gave some surpises:

GNP / Our ranking:

19: 9 (1 team)
17: 8 (2 teams)
20: 6 (2 teams)
21: 4 (3 teams)

Food / Our ranking:

8: 9 (WPC, Univers)
9: 7 (at a guess CivPlayers)
10: 6 (one of Spanish, Apolyton, Germans, CFC)
11: 5 (three of Spanish, Apolyton, Germans, CFC)
12: 2 (CivFr)

Production / Our ranking:

2: 9 (CivFr, CFC, Spanish)
3: 6 (WPC, Apolyton, Germans, CivPlayers, Univers)

Every team but Univers and WPC works an improved food tile now. I believe CivPlayers are on a farmed banana or other 4F-tile.

But the real oddity are the GNP values.

I had CivFr for an undiscounted tech after Hunting, but there is no team in the 18-19 range. We also know they work improved wet corn and deer, so no room for a high-commerce tile. Thus they are probably going for BW right now, in spite of my earlier note about them going for an undiscounted tech after Hunting. Or they are having a counter-C&D department. Will have to check later in the turn. They're at 20 or 21.

Spanish and CFC might be able to pick up 2C from food tiles. Spanish is definitely going for BW, while CFC might be going either AH or BW (both a single-discounted techs for them), but I strongly suspect BW there too. Or maybe CFC is the 17-civ, and goes for The Wheel right now.

I have Univers, WPC, and Apolyton for AH, and high-commerce Spanish and a CRE CivFr on BW would fit the data.

Then the Germans are on 16 or 17 since they haven't decided on a tech, together with CFC and CivPlayers.

[kjn]

T20 - 3200 BC

Demos:

Cliff's Notes: CFC researched Wheel, CFC, Spanish, CivFr, and us received land points, and there were a total of three warriors built (by WPC, Spanish, and CFC) and one lost (likely for Univers [STRIKE]or CivPlayers[/STRIKE]).

Note the change from food to hammers from one civ compared to T19. This happened late during T19, and probably from WPC, Univers, or maybe CivPlayers (who I suspect started with farming their banana), but I've decided to stick with the start-of-turn demos from now on.

Several changes in score and soldier points (up 8000 globally). Thanks to the new nifty turn-and-land tracking I've managed to set up in the C&D sheets, this was quite easy to make sense of.

The Spanish, CivFr, and we received only land points. CFC gained a tech (in 10t from Agriculture on T10) and land points. Assuming they've researched at 11bpt, that only leaves The Wheel as the possible new tech. GNP values also tells us that their 6F tile isn't riverside, since then we'd have had a team with 18 GNP last turn.

The only alternative from a beaker perspective would be Masonry, in which case they had received 15bpt, but that would make little sense, and make the power changes much harder to reach.

The Power rating also gives a few clues. Rival worst or best haven't moved, but we've fallen from #4 to #6 in the rankings. The only civs with 7000 rankings on T19 were WPC and Univers, but Univers built a warrior on T18. This strengthens a gain of 4000 power or more for CFC.

This means I have to assign a gain of 2000 power (ie a warrior) to WPC. This is earlier than I had assumed they'd have their second warrior, but not outside the realm of possibility.

However, I had the conjecture of both the Spanish and CFC finishing warriors this turn, for a total of 4000 in tech and 6000 warriors. Thus, it wouldn't surprise me if one civ lost a warrior to a barb on the interturn.

The final piece of the puzzle is that rival worst in power is stuck on 5000. On the previous turn only Spanish and CFC had 5000 in power.

I think there are two possibilities here:

1. CivPlayers or Univers (the ones with 7000 power on T19) lost a warrior on the interturn,
   
2. CFC used the fact that they grew on T18 instead of T19 (as the Spanish did) to pick up an extra hammer or two, so they could finish a warrior this turn but CFC didn't. However, then CFC would've likely built their warrior on T19, not T20.
   

However, I think option 1 is more likely.

ETA: I found I did a data entry error, and put an extra warrior for CivPlayers on T20 instead of CFC in the Unit tracking sheet. This means that it was Univers that lost a warrior.

[Sullla]

This is very impressive work. Don't feel the need to log in after every other team plays. I mean, it's great and all, but you don't have to do so.

[kjn]

The note on the start-of-turn demos is more on what is recorded in the Demos sheet. I will continue to try to log in after teams that have researched a new tech for a while.

I also realised my data entry error in the last write-up had other ramifications. Since CivPlayers had 5000 power, it's not necessarily Univers that lost a warrior. Apolyton, the Germans and CFC are also possible candidates.

[kjn]

C&D - the first 800 years

So, what can we tell with reasonable certainty about our opponents openings?

• WPC settled on T1 towards their animal resource, went warrior first until size 2, and then started their worker. They have researched Hunting, and will in all likelihood tech Animal Husbandry soon. I think they have engaged in quite a bit of tile-swapping, and that they've just finished building a second warrior.
  
• The Spanish settled in place, and went worker first. Their first tech was Mining, and they are in all likelihood researching Bronze Working right now.
  
• Apolyton settled on T1 towards their animal resource, and went worker first. After Hunting they are in all likelihood researching Animal Husbandry right now.
  
• The Germans settled on T1, and went worker first. They have researched Hunting and The Wheel. They are probably aiming for Pottery, but I have seen no evidence of increased GNP from them yet.
  
• CivFr settled on T0, on a minor food resource, and went worker first. They used their CRE trait to finish their worker 1t after us. They have researched Agriculture and Hunting, and are probably researching Bronze Working right now. It is possible they underestimate the maintenance costs on this map - with plenty of MP experience they have very good instincts but maybe not much simming experience. I think they are either building a second worker or a settler right now.
  
• CivPlayers settled on T1, and went worker first. They might have chosen to farm their minor food resource before their major one. They have researched Agriculture, and are probably researching an undiscounted tech right now.
  
• CFC settled in place, and went worker first. They have researched Agriculture and The Wheel.
  
• Univers settled on T1 towards their animal resource, and went warrior first. They built their worker at size 2. They have researched Agriculture, and and in all likelihood researching Animal Husbandry right now.
  

Using Sulla's handy classification of openings, we get:

Wheel-Pottery: Us, the Germans, CFC
Hunting-AH: WPC, Apolyton, Univers
Mining-BW: Spanish, CivFr

CivPlayers are either on the Wheel-Pottery path (in which case they will get their next tech T22) or the Mining-BW path (T20 for the next tech).

[kjn]

One team has increased their GNP to 19 now. We are #7 in GNP at 18 and 19.

It should be the Germans (since they finished an undiscounted tech this turn), but they haven't logged in yet...

[kjn]

Another option for the mysteriously lost warrior on T20 would be that the Spanish didn't build a warrior but a scout instead.

CFC haven't researched Hunting, and WPC, who has Hunting, needed to build a warrior to reach 9000 in power.

But even if it's possible, building a second scout before even having a warrior would be extremely weedy, so I'm going to assume a team lost a warrior.

[kjn]

T21 - 3160 BC

Demos and cities:

(Note how the size of the cities dominates the rating here. Later on, culture will become a dominant factor, since that is the only one that accumulates every turn.)

Cliff's Notes: Apolyton reached size 3, and CivPlayers researched Mining.

Once I had fed the demos data into the C&D sheet and updated the turn number, the score changes were easy to figure out: Apolyton gained a population point (size 3 now), and CivPlayers gained a tech in nine turns.

Total power increased with 2000.

That makes it pretty clear that CivPlayers researched Mining.

With no other population increases this turn, I'm pretty confident CivFr and the Germans are building settlers or workers. I also thought that WPC would research AH this turn, but it appears they are delayed somehow, despite running several turns with a 2F3C tile.

ETA: Another tidbit from demos is that Apolyton is using their newly built (T17) warrior outside their capital.