WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[pindicator]

I'm still not sure why I am suspected. Because I said the same thing as novice? Or because what I said is bad reasoning? I'm a newbie here. How the hell do I know what you guys consider bad reasoning?

Yeah, this really does remind me of my first game

The honest answer to your last question is that it varies for everybody. What one person sees as a good argument another person won't buy. One person will catch a scum tell that others won't. Some people will have extra info that others don't get. The key is to present your thinking behind your choices - it can help convince others to see your line of thinking as well as gives people insight into how you are thinking.

I think he'll die. You're proposing we vote for who we think deserves to be cleaned by Serdoa?

Why so pessimsitic? And yeah, that's kind of what I was thinking. You get to have your night lynch, in a sense. Except if we're wrong then a villager doesn't die.

[pindicator]

Don't do that. I don't want the Baner to believe you and switch off me. I really don't wanna die if we can help it.

Cross-posted here (because I left the screen up too long before finishing). If you don't want us to then we shouldn't. I may have gotten what I wanted out of it anyway.

[Lewwyn]

Cross-posted here (because I left the screen up too long before finishing). If you don't want us to then we shouldn't. I may have gotten what I wanted out of it anyway.

You mean like thestick jumping at the opportunity?

[Molach]

Ow.

I actually think Serdoa will survive this night too. Wolves know that any&all disruptive/protective/informative power will be centered on serdoa. Trying a nightkill now will likely both be foiled and if we have a watcher or similar will give away the killer too.
However I do not suggest that people gamble, diplomacy style, and leave him uncovered. His scans are just too valuable.
But wolves will probably gun for the baner/watcher/disruptor(like jailer) tonight and eat serdoa when they judge he could be safely killed.
Vote for who to scan is a terrible idea in my opinion.
If you pick an innocent wolves will just eat him tonight. So Serdoa needs to make his secret choice alone. He did well enough last night.

Why am I suspect again? I said day 1 that lurking was bad wolf play, but going into day 3 wolves will find it increasingly difficult to talk about others. They have to worry about being found out and giving away packmates.

[pindicator]

You mean like thestick jumping at the opportunity?

I just can't sneak anything past you, can I?

[Lewwyn]

I just can't sneak anything past you, can I?

I got moves like Jagger or Jaws.

[Meiz]

I knew Bob had an argument going against thestick, but did not fully understand why. Thanks for summarizing it Pindicator (http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=593)

Why would villager thestick would find the Tasunke bandwagon more suspicious than his own? His explanation did not make much sense originally, but I noticed he had talked about the "easy wolf votes on Tasunke" previously as well, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post282065

So I can kind of understand where that comment could have came from. Thestick would probably not be my top pick for next day's lynch.

Meiz's case against Brick, to me, reads as if he assumes Brick's guilty then looks for clues from there.

More like getting a gut feeling and then looking the clues from there.

Why couldn't Brick have made a timestamp accusation? For the 'distance from NAPers' thing, another explanation is that he really isn't an NAPer and found a 4 minute update delay a cause for concern.

He could have, but I was doubting if total newbie would use "3 minutes over deadline" accusation. Because newbie would probably be unsure how strictly we play here in RB and just assume that it's not that strict. The guiding thought was encouraged by the fact that it took almost an hour before he mentioned this. Second part was just minor detail.

[Mattimeo]

Sane seer and sane doctor (baner) are so powerful in combination that the scum actively *need* a strongman type role (kill goes through protection, generally comes with limitations on use) to make any game involving both a seer and a full doctor even remotely balanced. Or some other way of ensuring that a known seer isn't an invulnerable source in information each night 'til the scum get lucky and blindly hit the doctor.

For that reason, I really don't think we can make any assumptions about a claimed seer surviving for any length of time...

[Molach]

There have been many games where protecting/watching roles have a finite number of uses. 3 charges typical. That is what I meant about waiting till they judge the kill is safe

[Meiz]

I knew Bob had an argument going against thestick, but did not fully understand why. Thanks for summarizing it Pindicator

Slowcheetah that is