WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[Molach]

Have some other thoughts on other people as well, just so we don't forget 60% of the populace here.
I was suspecting slowcheetah first day, then on second he follows me on my supposed wolf pindicator I put him back to base. But now that pindicator was village I am getting suspicious again. You followed catwalk on me, you then followed me on pindicator. I know both of these were followings on to a villager, both cases using their arguments.

And then qgqqqq's vision. Chance of it being genuine is pretty tiny, so either did qgqqqq craft it himself or it was sent by a NAP. If he crafted it himself he is lying, and therefore a NAP. If it was sent to him by a NAP...he is village. I mean why go through with the actual sending when they could just craft it in the NAP-forum. Might be discovered by a tracker/watcher too.

So, it was (barring that tiny chance) made by NAP. What did they want? Mislynch village maniac - possible. Qgqqqq voted maniac off the bat. So if he's village at least 1 guy bought it. I'll admit that I also thought that we just mislynch and test the claim, before realizing that there is noone to hold responsible for it, and also before counting the number of village seers we would suddenly have. So it could also be crafted to gain deep cover for maniac. Or even a mislynch because they figured we would reason our way to deep-cover. Possibly just spreading some chaos too, as they target a new player and mention a new player, perhaps casting suspicion on both of them. In fact that looks actually probable, two new players being put in the limelight.

Before all that I felt qgqqqq leaning village so far, and maniac leaning ...the other direction. But not too far, either way.

[Injera]

The only Injera comment addressing Sareln (that I could find in the area) was discussing Sareln's vote on Pindicator.

He's referring to an earlier post where I explained why he was my first vote, namely that I thought he was a good villager who would be better if he got engaged earlier in the game (and conversely dangerous if he's a wolf that's allowed to lurk around.)

[zakalwe]

The thread grew by over 20 pages since I left on Friday, so I had to resort to some skimming to make it through in time for actually posting something tonight. I should have time for a more thorough reread tomorrow, but if someone slipped in "I'm scum" somewhere in the middle of a long paragraph it's entirely possible I have missed it, for now. Also, if I plagiarize someone else's argument, it's unintentional.

Anyway, I've been thinking in particular about what happened on day 1 and day 2 before Serdoa's reveal. Why was Novice so reluctant to name claim? His name wasn't particularly scummy. In fact, it really had some strong investigator connotations, which were only amplified by his reluctance to claim. (In hindsight, this should have been enough to lynch him; Novice would not be so obvious as a village investigator.) So I really think he was being deliberate about this, preparing some kind of investigator claim down the line.

Which makes me wonder if Q could be in on it. Q cast the second vote of the day for Novice, following Serdoa. His reason for voting Novice isn't very convincing, so maybe it was a forced vote, designed to elicit the following exchange:

I'm personally suspecting Novice because of some suspicious posts.
i.e You are not by process of elimination X leader, which sounds very dodgy considering the number without a leadership role.
What is the U.N Charter?

Er what?

Novice for your name claim you said:

And by elimination I'm Sinder Roze of the Data Angels.

Which is where my response comes from.
This feels suspicious because you wait until the end, not everyione has names etc.

You (literally) have to spell this out...

Everybody except me had claimed their name, against my advice, and the only unclaimed faction leader name was Sinder Roze. You don't have to be Lassie to figure that one out.

At any rate, I think Novice was working on some kind of ploy here, with Q willingly or unwillingly playing the part of naive questioner.

Now the other context where Q's name comes up is of course as the recipient of the "Datajack" message. Looking carefully at that, it really does look like Q got a message from the GM, in addition to something else, which I assume relates to his own role.

This is what Q posted:

On another note:

You had a very vivid dream last night. When you awoke you could remember every detail, and it appears someone communicated to you telepathically in your sleep. This is what you heard in your sleep:

Hello. I'm a villager whose role is "Datajack". I'm allowed to determine player roles, and to send messages to other players, but Bigger has forbidden me to tell anybody in either messages or in the game thread about my identity. I'm messaging you because probe teams have revealed Maniac is a "NAP Role-blocker". I'm telling this to you because I'm pretty sure you're a villager, and will reveal it. If you *aren't* a villager, then a suppose we both get to learn a lesson. Please make sure this information isn't wasted.

Note the first two paragraphs. "On another note:", and some more text which looks very much like it came from Bigger. The third paragraph contains the actual message from the "Datajack". So either this is very cleverly faked, or Q really did get a message. I don't think it's out of the question for one NAP to actually send a message to another NAP, but it is rather convoluted.

At any rate, the "obvious" way to decode all of this is that some baddie sent this message to Q, hoping to get first Maniac and then Q mislynched. It's just a little bit too obvious, though. In short, this is deep WIFOM territory. I'm kind of tempted to just toss that glass of wine into the fireplace and lynch Maniac.

Back to day 1. Remember the asymmetry between Meiz and Tasunke, where Tasunke knew Meiz's name, but not vice versa? Why would he do that, both Meiz and I asked. Well, maybe it was in fact designed to grant Meiz some credibility? The point is that the asymmetry of their relationship still stands, and maybe the asymmetry extends to alignment. As far as I recall, Meiz didn't push to lynch Tasunke, and Tasunke was the one who decided to claim, not Meiz. If I were a wolf with a village neighbor I wouldn't really want him lynched on day 1. Better to string him along, for my own nefarious purposes. (I mean, some people are really really gullible like that...)

(The "I thought he was my evil counterpart" thing also pinged as suspicious to me when I first read it, but Meiz's explanation for that makes sense.)

I had the above thoughts about Meiz before Injera and Thestick revealed. But the argument about asymmetry seems to apply equally to them, from what I can gather. At any rate, I think lynching one of the three neighbors is a decent idea if we generally lack scum reads. They are expendible, in terms of powers.

Moving on, BRickAstley claims the ability to prevent what Mattimeo can cause to happen, but neither knows what it (a drone riot) actually does. If someone actually does know what a drone riot does, I think it might be a good idea to speak up about it. It seems a little strange if both of them are innocent, when they cancel each other out like this. So knowing if a drone riot is good or bad would be helpful.

So yeah... in summary, I see a bunch of links, but I'm not sure exactly where to begin in order to unravel this. I guess we just need to pick a thread and start pulling. And we don't necessarily have to start with any of the players I mentioned here. But I'm going to start with reciprocating for this:

Of those anywhere near the block, of which there seem to be rather a few at this stage, the ones that (to me) seem acting possibly out of character are Selrahc and zakalwe, and Selrahc is making an argument that I agree with for the most part.

Therefore, zakalwe.

With this, he pushed me up as the fourth candidate to be tied at three votes, while Novice had two votes. So a couple of points here: 1) Everybody was "near the block" at this point, so he wasn't really as restricted in his choice as he claims, and 2) the accusation against me is extremely generic and essentially irrefutable.

Mattimeo

[Sareln]

I had a very pleasant Saturday and Sunday morning, but I hear there's a werewolf game on?

I may be able to help with this Zakalwe.

I am a drone, and my ability is to instigate a drone riot during the night. As a result of the riot, I will be thrown in prison rendering me immune to night actions (triggerable night-kill immune).

I have not triggered this ability.

I was hoping to draw the night kill with quiet play later in the game, but for some reason I doubt that's going to happen now.

Another possibility is that rioting has knock-on effects beyond what I've been told, but I hadn't considered that at all until today (I just thought it was a flavorful night-kill-immune role).

This puts me into an interesting position with both Mattimeo (Domai) and BrickAstley (Yang). Mattimeo has claimed the ability to riot, but doesn't say what it does, though instigating it will throw him in prison. Based on that, I expect that it's a mirror of mine. Perhaps he has more abilities to go with it? BrickAstley has claimed the ability to stop any drones from rioting for the night (countering myself and Mattimeo at least).

(Assumption) I find it exceedingly unlikely that Bigger gave BrickAstley a power that could only ever hurt the village if it was used if BrickAstley is a villager.

Follow on assumption: I know that I'm a villager, so if there are no other drones in the game, then one of BrickAstley or Mattimeo is NAP.

Mattimeo

[Mattimeo]

I still like the part where we have fairly solid evidence against thestick, in that he had information that he should have had no way of obtaining at that point without communication with some kind of role scanner (like the wolf one we found the existence of yesterday), yet everyone decides to run off and get distracted by random tangents.

Sareln - nice way to disincentivise any other possible drones from claiming.
Also, if you're going to use the logic that only one of BRickAstley and me is town, I'd much rather the assumption be that I'm town, since I know for a fact that's true.

Still on thestick for now, pretty much the only reason I'd consider changing it today is self preservation, which I'd really rather not be forced into...

[Molach]

Follow on assumption: I know that I'm a villager, so if there are no other drones in the game, then one of BrickAstley or Mattimeo is NAP.

Mattimeo

Why mattimeo? BRick is the one who stops drone riots?

[Bobchillingworth]

Sareln - nice way to disincentivise any other possible drones from claiming.

Why do you think there are other possible drones? We haven't seen any duplicate roles so far.

[thestick]

I still like the part where we have fairly solid evidence against thestick, in that he had information that he should have had no way of obtaining at that point without communication with some kind of role scanner (like the wolf one we found the existence of yesterday), yet everyone decides to run off and get distracted by random tangents.

You mean me thinking that Serdoa couldn't determine roles? I think this is the third time I've said this, but I'll say it again: if Serdoa knew novice's role, why wouldn't he reveal it? To make himself less dangerous to the wolves? I thought that since Serdoa didn't reveal novice's role, Serdoa didn't know what novice's role was.

At any rate, I think lynching one of the three neighbors is a decent idea if we generally lack scum reads. They are expendible, in terms of powers.

Didn't Injera and Meiz claim an anti-mindworm role?

About the whole drone thing, it's weird how BRick and Mattimeo don't know what a drone riot does, but Sareln knows. Getting rid of night-kill immunity (Brick) sounds like a wolf ability, since if it's village it needs the coordination of a vigilante or crazy luck. Not going to hold this metagame speculation against Brick, though.

Sareln and Mattimeo: do your abilities have a limited number of charges?

As for wolf-hunting, I thought my argument is solid IF you turn up NAP. That's a big 'if', especially for you as its your life on the line.

You mean 'If thestick is a wolf, then Injera has a higher-then-normal chance of being a wolf'? Or the whole 'thestick and Tasunke are both mindworms'? Both of which I disagree with.

I don't think we should go on a wild mindworm hunt, given we don't know if they're actually players. Is it just me, or has there practically been no wolf-hunting today? I was writing up thoughts on most of the players, but I stopped after I realized most of them said 'talked about mindworms, hasn't accused anyone yet.'

Current things that strike me as suspicious:
Lewwyn: Seems to be acting a bit impulsively. His posts are short but numerous, and he has a habit of throwing votes with little to no explanation. Jumping on what might have been the beginnings of the Meiz train looks suspicious to me.
Maniac: This sticks out for some reason:

I'll wait and read the discussion by others before finalizing my vote, and also see who of my top 3 gets the most votes from others. But for now I'll target thestick.

Self-admitted lurking? Not sure whether to chalk it up to inexperience. Again, post 678 looks suspicious to me.
Qgqqqqqq: Like Serdoa said, jumping onto the Meiz wagon without much evidence.

Other things of note:
Jkaen: Hasn't shown up yet.
slowcheetah: Seems to be in a similar boat with me, he summarizes other's posts, then adds his own thoughts. I don't necessarily think he's a lurker wolf anymore.
Mattimeo: Hasn't accused anyone yet, just asked questions on the seer stuff and drone revolts.
Selrahc: Hasn't shown up since the Serdoa reveal. Still weird with that 'Lewwyn is an alien, we can't trust him' line of reasoning Day 2.
Sareln: His only post today is a semi-metagaming post that says 'either Brick or Mattimeo are NAPs, but not both or neither.'
Molach: Am I the only one who has trouble understanding what he's saying?

[thestick]

Why do you think there are other possible drones? We haven't seen any duplicate roles so far.

About the duplicate roles thing, Injera and Meiz are suspected of having the same anti-mindworm power. And Mattimeo and Sareln both claimed to be drones, and they think their powers are identical.

[Bigger]

thestick(5) - Sareln, , maniac, bobchillingsworth, mattimeo, waterbat
sareln (3) - BrickAstley, Meiz, slowcheetah
meiz (2) - Lewwyn, Qgqqq
mattimeo (2) - zakalwe, sareln
Qgqqqq - Serdoa
jkaen - Molach
maniac - thestick

Not voting - jkaen, Selrahc