The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

Zulu

[kjn]

The life expectancy and approval rates also tells us something on T25.

Rival worst in approval is 50, ie it is a size 4 city without a military unit stationed in it. Since Apolyton probably has three warriors, I think it's more likely that it's CFC or CivPlayers who has their capital unprotected right now.

Rival worst in life expectancy is 54. This fits with 6 health and 5 unhealth.

5 unhealth is 4 from pop, and 1 from flood plains.

6 health would be:

2 difficulty level
2 fresh water
2 unknown

This means that CFC got a second forest in their BFC, and that they have also connected their corn, which further confirms that they researched The Wheel on T20.

[kjn]

The Mystery of the Missing Warriors

One thing that bugs me with following the demos right now is that there are too few increases in power, and some of them are timed wrong. We have five teams that at minimum produces 3hpt (2 from city tile and one from camped deer), meaning they will build a warrior every five turns even on max growth, and two of them (Apolyton and CivPlayers) are at size 4 right now.

Thus, here's a table with the total total turns from settling to last growth, how many turns I estimate each team has spent growing, and minimum hammers per turn:

WPC: 24 / 15 / 3
Apolyton: 22 / 12 / 3
Germans: 21 / 11 / 3
CivPlayers: 24 / 14 / 3
CFC: 25 / 13 / 2

I have only included the teams that have grown recently. Spanish, CivFr, and Univers are probably on settler or worker builds right now, or have just finished one.

For WPC, I'd have expected three warrior builds by now, but I only have notes of two, on T8 and T20. I'd have expected another warrior build this turn.

For Apolyton I have notes of two warrior builds, on T17 and T23. In their case, however, the timing is off. I have notes of them building warriors on T17 and T23, but I would have expected T17 and T22, so I think they have spent one turn on a scout or a barracks. Their growth from 2 on T17 to 3 on T21 to 4 on T23 implies that they got +7F from T17 (farmed corn + deer), 6F surplus on T21, and 10F on T21 and T22 to grown on T23. 10F would mean a farmed corn, camped deer, and a 3F tile.

For the Germans, I have notes of a warrior build on T17, and I'd have expected another one on T22.

For CivPlayers, I only have note of a warrior build on T16. Again, I have a missing warrior build, somewhere between T21 and T24, depending on if they've spent time off their deer.

CFC is where they should be, with one warrior build, and another one expected on T28.

That makes for a total of three missing warriors, or 6000 in power.

The first option is that the teams are building scouts or barracks instead. But all of them, and with huts off?

The second option is that we have losses that have masked the increases in power from warrior builds. It's unlikely to be inter-team warfare, since that would've shown up during the turns, so it's probably barb activity. This is apart from the earlier inferred warrior loss on T20.

So who may have lost a warrior after T20?

Apolyton is rival best in power at 16000 with three warriors, so they haven't lost one. CivPlayers is rival worst at 8000, but they might have built a replacement warrior.

CivFr and Univers would be below us in the Power rankings if they lost a warrior, so they haven't had any losses.

So WPC, the Spanish, the Germans, CivPlayers, and CFC might have lost a warrior each. We have earlier evidence of a warrior loss on T20, and I've narrowed that down to the Germans and CFC. I also think it's unlikely that the Spanish would be taking risks with their lone warrior, if they are going with an early settler.

Baaed on this, and that rival worst power was stuck at 5000 for a long time, I think it's very likely that CivPlayers has lost a warrior.

And I also conclude that if I am to do this, I need to take better account of power tracking over time. But that's for another game.

[kjn]

T26 - 2960 BC

Cliff's Notes:

8 land points for all the T1 settling teams. We have a warrior build, tentatively assigned to CivPlayers.

5 teams received 8 points each: WPC, Apolyton, the Germans, CivPlayers, and Univers. That corresponds to 11 or 12 new tiles. Since rival worst in land area is 20k, everyone has 20 land tiles in score now, except for the Spanish who has 21.

We increased our power to 12000, and from #6 to #4. Rival average rose 2000, and rival worst from 8000 to 9000. Since CivPlayers used to be rival worst at 8000, that implies that it was they who built the warrior.

Note that I'm currently reviewing the accumulated power data, cross-checking it with the demos, so these assignments might change.

[kjn]

I did some tile-swapping with the top cities screen, and can confirm that Apolyton has got a 6-strength tile online. Since they researched AH on T22, they probably got their cow pastured on T25, which also would fit with top production going from 7 to 9 that turn.

[waterbat]

I did some tile-swapping with the top cities screen, and can confirm that Apolyton has got a 6-strength tile online. Since they researched AH on T22, they probably got their cow pastured on T25, which also would fit with top production going from 7 to 9 that turn.

So the civ with 9 is Apoly and they did not build a mine to get there?

[kjn]

Yup. They likely have a cow or a horse, but they don't have Mining, so no mines for them. And the teams that do have Mining can't get the required production and food values.

It's also only a single high-production team, ie it's quite likely that the team that had 7 on T23 and T24 is the team with 9 now.

[kalin]

Do exp or imp bonuses show in the demos? That is, can that be an imp's civ settler? I thought no, but I am not sure.

Kalin

[Sullla]

They do not show up in the Demographics. We registered as 4 Production when we were building our first worker, even though we were technically getting 5 Production from Expansive bonus.

I'm pretty sure it works the same way for Imperialistic, although it's a moot point because there are no Imp teams in this game.

[kjn]

T27 - 2920 BC

Cliff's Notes: The big news is that CivFr are the first to found a second city. We have one warrior build, the Germans teched Mining, and CFC grew their capital to size 5.

Screen shots:

CivFr founded their second city 1t earlier than I had expected (though I didn't hold T27 as impossible) and it's located 3 steps away in one cardinal direction from their capital, and 2 steps in the other. (For us, it'd eg be on the plains hill 1NE of our deer.) We know this since they added 6 tiles to their land value, they added 3 to their score, and the pop values doesn't add up with a size 3 city for them.

CFC grew their capital to size 5, 2 turns after they grew to size 4. That pretty much implies they had 18F the last two turns, for +10F. It'd also require a 8F surplus from when they grew to size 4.

Their food would come from city centre (2F), corn (6F), 2 * farmed banana/FP (4F) on size 3 for 16F, and probably a grass forest once they grew to size 4.

The Germans gained a tech, in 8t since they rsearched The Wheel. With a increase in power of 4000 total, that fits well with Mining. They get at least +1C per turn, and some overflow from The Wheel should be enough to reach 90 beakers in 8t.

That leaves a warrior build. Since we dropped from #4 to #5 in the power ranking, there are plenty of possible candidates. Apolyton, the Germans, CFC, and Univers are all candidates.