waterbat Wrote:Another stupefying kill selection. First impression it is an obvious selrahc frame job.
That makes sense if there is 1 NAP left - but if there are 2 left, we are at LyLo. Meiz' kill may be purely for voting tactics. Meiz would have kicked voting off against selrahc and probably would have stuck there. The other odd thing I joined selrahc yesterday and no one joined or flipped off of maniac. I would have thought the NAPs would jump on chance to mislynch our baner, if he really is one.
Agreed, in that meizs death had to be for some sort of voting tactics.
Molach Wrote:Bob I must agree about your selrahc analysis. IF you are village then so is he. And then, by elimination, BRick and waterbat are the last nap..
Or maybe you're one of the last ones too Molach
Bobchillingworth Wrote:I am not sure why Meiz died in the night- I'm also not sure how Meiz died in the night. Protection vs. Mindworms, but his death write-up implies Planet involvement (the random words quote), and there's no death note.
Let's not get distracted by what bigger might or might not have included as flavor.
Quote:I also scanned Selrahc last night- he's a doctor. This doesn't leave many suspects left for who might be a worm, if there is one. I am also wondering whether the "mindworm" really is just a form of NAP night-attack, like an atrocity. I think I suggested that earlier, actually. Selrahc being a doctor does lead (some) credence to his baner claim, since the names are often interchangeable roles.
yeah, I'm not sold on suspecting Selrahc anymore.
Quote:I think today we have to focus on resolving the Drone Saga, something which we honestly should have done two lynches ago, and I fully admit to bearing direct responsibility for getting us off-track with my running after Jkaen and Maniac. We have been over this a thousand times already, but here is an up-to-date & brief accounting of suspicions against both Molach and BRick:
Note- a lot of this is based on the metagame. I'm sorry, I wish I had something better to go off of for a lot of these entries.
Brick
* If we have three village drones, his power is pure anti-village and makes no sense for anyone not NAP.
* His vote on Injera came too late to matter (although he claims RL justification).
* It makes sense for one of the wolves to have an atrocity unlocked, and so far only the village has had any.
Molach
* Three villagers all with the exact same power seems unlikely- and his drone power would pair well with a more substantial wolf role-blocker role.
* The diary, which initially gave him significant village cred, upon further reflection seems more and more to me like the result of a wolf-cover operation. Remember that the wolves had a day or so to coordinate before the game began, due to roles being sent out early. Including the throw-away first day, the wolves would have had plenty of time to create a false diary document which could be handed off to any wolf in danger for cover. Indeed, there's no reason to believe that it was ever even written in a quicktopic- the formatting could easily have been faked in notepad or Word.
* One bit of new evidence- Molach voted to save Brick during the Jkaen lynch. Okay, not so strange at first blush. But consider- Molach himself noted that if Brick hung & was innocent, he'd be likely to go next, and couldn't allow that risk were he a wolf. I think he may have been telling the truth.
Now, Molach did vote to lynch Injera, and the vote he cast was an important one too. This is to his distinct credit. But I wonder now if that was all wolf cover. It makes sense that one wolf would have been voting for Injera, just probably not more than one. And that lynch came late at night for Europe- Molach may not have even been online in time to save his buddy, even if he had wanted to.
I keep going back & forth on this mentally, but for now I'm going to have to vote for Molach.
Again, watch out with using the diary as a main piece of evidence one way or another. It can tell a very good deal, but since it is something that could theoretically be edited, I wouldn't give it any credit above what any normal posts receive.
That said, I strongly feel that Molach has to be the NAP in our midst. I agree with bobs point about his vote switch when I was doomed, I was gonna bring that up before I saw it was already posted. It keeps Molach under cover as long as I'm alive. And it doesn't matter for him today if I die and turn village as I'm almost certain this is LyLo now and if I die they win. What better way to ensure that by holding off an "obvious" lynch til the last day when it's harder to stay hidden?
One other point: think why the heck are you still alive bob? You're obviously the strongest one of us when it comes to both credit and posting logic. How would you be anything but a threat to the wolves? I think here it's because Molach thinks he can pull you over to his side in a swing vote. You've only expressed interest in Molach being nap twice now, once with a quick switch off and now you say you're open to switching again. Also keep in mind that you and him have been voting together on mislynches for the last few days, as well as me and waterbat. (I mention myself to acknowledge that i'm in that group too, but i've been doing my best to read and apologize for my failures too. I mention waterbat cause i'm pretty sure he's Molach's partner in crime, but more on that later.)
I think that's also why Meiz was the one killed last night, in order to focus votes on this one last mislynch. Now, Bob's clear, Selrahc's clear, Waterbat's clear, and Molach is clear enough to swing the vote towards me. It makes the final stage nice and simple and an easy win that you don't even have to think about if you don't wanna! If you wanna bring in metagame speculation too then you have all those ridiculous pictures and dreams featuring me in them, as well as the fact that my power sounds evil and scary so it must be. How awfully convenient that I have to be completely bad and am the perfect lynch this late and obvious in the game. And Molach is so sure of it that he's parked his vote on me for good so you can be sure of it going through.
All that the wolves have to do here is get one person to vote alongside them, and both of you, Selrahc and Bob, either have already been fooled or are in the process of having Molach work on trying to fool you, don't let that happen.
Quote:Now, there is also both waterbat and Selrahc. Neither is above suspicion, although I think our best bet is to resolve the festering Drone Saga. But I'll do summaries for both anyway.
Waterbat has read village to me for a long time now. His voting record isn't actually all that great- he voted for Selrahc instead of Injera, and indeed never voted for any known wolf except one placed on Novice after Serdoa outed him. But he kept quiet about the on-coming Zakalwe kill, and his often incredibly strange theories just aren't the kind of stuff I've ever heard of any wolf doing. I guess I could see it if he was a wolf, and I def. could if he was third party (it fits his power), and I'll scan him next if the village doesn't win or lose by next day (and if I'm still alive obviously). If we lynch a wolf today and then I die in the night, he's a good lynch target for whoever remains. He was trying to get a band-wagon secret voting system going in his private conversation w/ me on day three, which could be interpreted either way. I didn't find it particularly suspicious at the time.
Essentially, he could be a bad guy, but I'd rather focus elsewhere given the option between the obviously strange metagame situation with the drones, and vague suppositions vs. waterbat.
Selrahc does not read village. Hell, he's the only person here who doesn't. He has bizarre vendettas, he will not shut the hell up about how crap from SMAC relates to our WW game, probably at least a third of his total posts are just attacking Lewwyn and another third are spent defending himself.
That said, I think he's village. Not a helpful villager, but village regardless. I base this on a few grounds. First, I now know that he's a doctor, which as I mentioned above does fit the baner claim. Second, this isn't an argument for innocence, but it is worth noting that the last two people to hang didn't sound like villagers, and both were, while if we have two hostiles left in this game (very likely), at least one of them does sound like a villager.
Third, I wrote this during the previous day, but his behavior (plus the known wolves') during the Injera lynch makes no sense if he's a wolf. Why would he go to such lengths to spare himself over another wolf, when the wolves could very conceivably have banded together to kill Lewwyn?
Think about it. If Selrahc is a wolf, then there's him, Zak, Injera all online at the same time up until the lynch deadline (they were all actively posting), and Lewwyn already had two votes on him from villagers who were not longer online for the day. With Zak being able to double-vote Lew, and with the margin of votes involved to get a lynch (selrahc was leading before his role-claim with 6, but that was with Injera voting against him- something else which makes no sense if they're both wolves), it would have been simple for the wolves to marshal the votes Lewwyn swingeing. Sure it would have looked odd, but the way it played out Injera died and Zak ended up seeming strange and got immediately killed by Lewwyn (who they could have voted to death, were Selrahc wolf) anyway. It just doesn't make sense at all to me.
Okay, that was a bit of text spent defending Selrahc, who up until this point I honestly have not cared much about. But at this point we almost certainly cannot afford a mislynch. I'm not the biggest fan of the way he has played this game, but I think that if we lynch him today, we've lost, so out comes the wall of text.
Yeah..... Waterbat seems much worse here. Bad voting record, All of those ridiculous theories which i've been saying for quite a while are only focusing to confuse the village, and letting Zak die pretty much guarantees him cover until the end of the game even through his scummy tells here and there. Barring another ridiculous revelation he's got to be the second wolf after Molach dies.
Bobchillingworth Wrote:I'd be willing to change my vote to Brick, but I'm sure that if he looks like he's going to lynch he'll also write another big defense post that makes me think "oh, he sounds so much like a villager, it can't be him!". Like I said in my overlong post above (or meant to say, my wording wasn't great), I think everyone except Selrahc sounds like a villager, and yet I see less justification to vote for Selrahc than the rest based on the facts of the game
Well sorry but I seem to be fulfilling your prophecy here. :P I've honestly been busy and sick for the last day so I haven't been able to post any of my thoughts on the previous posts yet, and I'm sorry for waiting til a big post, but that's how life rolls. I do agree here that the wolves left here have been crafty to get it this far, and small village tells cannot be completely trusted.
Quote:Arghh. I kind of want this game to be over already now
I know, it's frustrating me too.
But we're so close to the end, and even though it looks dire we only have to get two correct lynches in this smaller field of people, and then we still win. Don't give up yet! Selrahc Wrote:I think Brick is a wolf.
Waterbat could have roleblocked and killed lewwyn if he was a wolf. Rules him out totally. Bob is definitely the name seer, and we can be sure that is a village ability due to Marr. I protected him last night, to apparently no effect.
Molach or Brick then? The answer is easily Brick. Molach's diary may be fakeable but it is easily a more compelling bit of evidence than anything Brick has conjured up in his defence. Coupled with a clearly anti-village power use by Brick and we have a clear favorite. Brick has been dancing in the gallows for half the game, but escaped each time. I feel his next dance should be his last.
So if something is fakeable but probably isn't that isn't worth any more than any of the myriad of other pieces of dirt Molach has on him? And again, oh my power sounds scary so I must be evil? What if Molach does have an evil ability, and it's been stopped by my nerve staple.
Come ot think of it, has anything been blocked since I did use my nerve staple? Bob's name reads, Selrahc's banes, and Waterbat's neighborizers have all gone through the last two nights, ever since I used my staple on Molach. Has anyone else thought that could be because his power might be the role-blocking, but I was able to shut him down so nothing has been stopped since then? Another piece of evidence based on gameplay that I think really damns Molach.
waterbat Wrote:Molach,
I'm not sure we have 2 NAP, you seem convinced. I'm not bricks NAP buddy, but I came in ready to vote selrahc or brick.
That might just be the reason for the Meiz kill. I think it was pretty clear that you would vote brick if Meiz was dead. If there are indeed 2 NAP, they only would need your vote. Killing Brick wraps it up, right?
Bob came in with a molach or brick mindset. If Bob is innocent and the Meiz kill was meant to direct votes at bigger, that doesn't leave room for 2 NAP
In any event, I'm leaning toward the 1 nap + 1 possible sk role.
Also - you have 1 vote on you. I don't think that makes you 'mislynch of the day'!
Wow Waterbat, so now you're trying to make it seem like there might only be one wolf and we're not at LyLo. Nice job trying to make everyone feel safer. This is probably the most ridiculous claim made this game in regards to meta. out of 21 people only 4 are wolves? Seriously? If I wasn't so sure of Molach I'd be voting you today, but I'll be content to out him today and you tomorrow.
Molach Wrote:EDIT: Waterbat. Yes mabye just 1 NAP and 1 'other'. Hopefully a 'survivor'. Not sure about SK, only 1 kill most nights, alternate killing? Also the dream implicating maniac has been proved false, it was a set up. I did an analysis early on that sort of proved that there would be 5 evil guys. No more time atm, there is more info revealed by latest batch of villagers we should look into.
Aaaanyway, I'll lynch BRick today, not gonna change that vote. And then let tomorrow come, if it may.
So earlier you proved 5 wolves but aren't wanting to completely bust that theory out of the water, leaving it with some credence. And laying your vote on the obvious last (mis)lynch and leaving it to sit there.
Waterbat tomorrow, and Molach today. Or vice-versa if anyone is particular about it. I don't care which order cause i'm almost certain that at this point, we've got them. So Selrahc and Bob, both of you have to vote with me on one of them in order to keep us from losing today. Just know the gravity of this situation and vote the right way.
