WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Serdoa]

Safety in numbers, right?

Bigger

Injera, please explain that to me. You suspect Bigger because he asked someone to vote for his preferred target? Heck why don't you vote for me, I certainly did do the same in regards to Mattimeo.

Anyhow, with his reveal he is no longer a valid target imo. He could lie of course, but no way to tell that now and it certainly doesn't make sense to waste a day1-lynch on a claimed PR. Therefore

thestick

@merovech

I actually think because we have so little knowledge small things can make a difference. I remember (hopefully correctly) that Mattimeo is often talking about game-theory. I would expect him to see his faulty logic for his Tasunke vote, and obviously others expected that as well from him. That he did not was making it look like he tried to just re-incenerate the Tasunke-votes to get him lynched after all.

[zakalwe]

What's with the (L-12) and (L-13) entries in the vote count. An unintended artifact of your program, Brick, or something else?

[BRickAstley]

What's with the (L-12) and (L-13) entries in the vote count. An unintended artifact of your program, Brick, or something else?

Yup. Those are counts of votes needed to get to halfway point. Irrelevant to our steup, so if any more show up just ignore them.

[pindicator]

Injera - you've said a lot about thestick in previous games. What makes you think he's villager in this game?

[Rowain]

I guess it is too late to push for an uberfish-BW?

[Tasunke]

BW?

Uberfish-Bronzeworking?

[Injera]

Injera, please explain that to me. You suspect Bigger because he asked someone to vote for his preferred target? Heck why don't you vote for me, I certainly did do the same in regards to Mattimeo.

No, it's because he's not really making his own case. I asked him state to thestick case in his own words and here was his response:

agree +10 with this post. not with the catwalk part, but with thestick and uberfish parts.

Injera - about my thestick vote.

originally, it was 18 hours in and I'm not looking for a concrete argument (there aren't any). I don't think his original post was damning, but it was suspicious and there wasn't much to go on - also I feel like thestick gives off his tells best when he is under pressure, so he's a decent person to start a dogpile on. At that point I was looking more for his response than I was to lynch him. I was ready to hop off as soon as he made a townie post defending himself. His eventual response is more damning, though. I was expecting a village thestick to respond like he did in ww15 for being the top vote-getter - confused, a little panicky, "oh no, I don't understand why everyone is voting for me again." Instead I see ww13 thestick (when he was a wolf) - cool, calm, very sparse in his words, almost unaware that anyone is even voting for him. Also agree with Zak - thestick comes off as trying hard not to react to the votes against him, hoping if he stays mostly silent the village will get bored and pick a new candidate. That's a scum strategy, imo.

The +10 was referring to a Zak post. He brings some new insights, but I don't necessarily like them- it seems overstated. As someone who was reading the Neighbor thread in addition to the main thread last game he knows as well as anyone that thestick was legitimately absent for a while because he was busy. More importantly, though, he keeps falling back on Zak. Seriously, go take a look back at his posts and how many mention him.

I find the fact that he later tried to elicit whether Mattimeo could protect himself fishy as well.

[zakalwe]

Uberfish-Bronzeworking?

It's the ultimate worker tech!

I think Uberfish is scummy, but I prefer to lynch thestick first.

[Injera]

Injera - you've said a lot about thestick in previous games. What makes you think he's villager in this game?

I don't think he's a villager necessarily this game (basically a null read at this point with how little he's said) but it took the efforts of the wolves last game to not have him mislynched. The argument against him seems to be people piling on based on others' reads. You looked back at the posts and realized that the "20 questions" style was something he did last game- did anyone who was voting for him seem to care about that new information? novice acted interested at first, but it didn't materially change his view in any way.

[pindicator]

Uberfish has read like someone who is genuinely busy IRL. His misunderstanding a lot of posts that are directed at him look like someone who is trying to keep up by skimming since they don't have a lot of time, and he's missing because of that.

I think a wolf would try to be a little more careful, so I'm leaning village for uberfish. I'll have a better read after day 2, i think.

@Injera - that's exactly why I think novice is village. Wolf novice seemed to be a lot more dancing around, looking for the easy target. When he'd get push back on one target he'd more often than not move on to the next. This latching on to one person doesn't match his play in recent games as scum.

thestick's silence is the most suspicious thing i can spot right now. Why the disappearance?