WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[Ichabod]

Sorry everyone for being away on day 1. I had some unexpected things happening. I won't be mod-killed, no one should worry.

[Bigger]

Sorry everyone for being away on day 1. I had some unexpected things happening. I won't be mod-killed, no one should worry.

yes please vote tomorrow.

Unless you're scum. Then please fill free to stay away for the next few days and forget to place a vote day 2.

[zakalwe]

Waterbat, have you set up that thread scraper thingy of yours? It would be very useful.

[Lewwyn]

Checking up on this during my lunch break. Eagles win while I sleep, we lynch a wolf. Makes my day a bit brighter.

[Catwalk]

Merovech, who is scummier: Someone who sticks his neck out to defend a wolf who looks very likely to hang, or someone who jumps on the switch later when it looks safer?

[Mattimeo]

The bandwagon on thestick has been building for a long time now, I don't believe the mafia is incompetent enough to not A) instruct him on not setting himself up to hang B) put enough suspicion on at least two other candidates.

Mattimeo seems to have disappeared.

Pretty much exact sequence of thoughts/actions:

• Notice it's 4am, quick check of Werewolf before sleep.
  
• See that half a dozen people have suddenly jumped on me.
  
• Claim to try to keep myself alive.
  
• Get ready to sleep.
  
• Realise that it might be an idea to actually vote the other people in the race at the time, just for that slight boost to my chances.
  
• Additionally respond to a post that had been made between the claim and the vote.
  
• Go to sleep.
  

ok, this just occured to me after seeing Catwalk's quote of Brick's sign-up post.

Matt, how is your role-claim NOT a baner role, which Brick specifically said would not be in this setup?

Am I misunderstanding Matt's claim?

Partially this:

I believe the stated roles could plausibly be in the game. A cloaker is not necessarily superior to a baner. It also blocks town investigative actions on the target such as the claimed watcher

But also, I'm thinking the limited uses factor in as well - it becomes much more a case of "should I actually use this tonight?" rather than "who seems the best target tonight?"
At least, that's how I rationalised it when I saw I'd been basically given a limited use doctor.

[Mattimeo]

I also find the similarities between the list of people who jumped on my wagon, and the list of people who jumped on the Bigger wagon immediately afterwards, somewhat interesting...

[novice]

I'll have to do some actual work today so I probably won't be able to reread the thread until later - but here are some thoughts on what I would look for when rereading:

When Zakalwe and I simultaneously jumped on Thestick early on, I'm pretty sure the wolves had an "oh shit" moment. Especially Zakalwe is known for biting on and not letting go, and with me and him on Thestick things were already getting critical even if he didn't actually have many votes yet. In fact, the village waffled around for the longest time, with Thestick stuck on 4 votes. It wasn't until close to the deadline, with no other candidates really gaining traction, that the result of the wolves' failed efforts showed. But I think they lost the battle earlier on that day, by failing to sabotage the Thestick case and failing to launch other lynch candidates. So I would look at the people who worked against a Thestick lynch in those early hours.

Additionally, the people doing late jumping are also suspicious of course, but some of those are bound to be jittery villagers.

Thirdly, if I were a wolf and there were 6 or 7 of us, I would have immediately put one wolf voting on Thestick. The reason being, he could either do a late jump for extra saving effort, or stay there if the situation was lost and gain some cover. I guess Bigger and Merovech are the ones fitting this bill, but Bigger is unlikely to be wolf IMO due to the late swing of votes on him.

Fourthly, I suppose there might be some information to be gained from the mayor votes. With me and Zakalwe firmly on Thestick, we might expect an overabundance of wolves on the other mayor candidates.

Those are the things I would look for, in decreasing order of importance.

[Qgqqqqq]

Wow i'm impressed!
I honestly thought all the piles were just paranoia, still we got one!!
What role did thestick/merovech claim? I think I missed it somewhere?

Maybe I'm just bad at this tasunke, but I don't see any "obvwolfs" yet.

[Catwalk]

Mattimeo, given that thestick was guilty that's just about enough to clear you. I did find your role claim very suspicious, but given thestick's guilt I'm going to assume there was a reason for that. If there is anything you didn't say about your power yet, don't reveal anymore.

Unless I am a wolf (which I am not, hope you won't need dead solid proof of that), it seems obvious that thestick was thrown under the bus. He had obvious activity problems (in PBEM42 as well), so they may have decided to do a sacrifice gambit and try to gain deep cover in the process. The only players I think the lynch clears are Bigger and Mattimeo. I agree with novice that they probably didn't set out to sacrifice him right away, so I'm also willing to acknowledge town cred for novice and zakalwe who went after him first (I think?).