WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[novice]

I had some time after all, so I took a look on one player who has been bugging me - Rowain:

This is a subset of his posts, the ones I've omitted are mostly irrelevant IMO - joke posts and questioning Brick's vote tallies.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post292719
Tries to descredit my case on Thestick, saying I'm quoting him selectively (which happened to be true) and also saying I'm just following Zak (which happened to be false).

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post292843
Votes Bigger after I've said Bigger's posts don't feel right. Trying to get me off Thestick?

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293025
Responds to Pindicator calling him less energetic than normal with "You are quite right but sometimes the leopard tries to change his spots". Doesn't explain why being less energetic is something a leopard would want. Also elaborates on why he's voting Bigger by saying he jumps on bandwagons.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293028
To his credit he is not fixated on Bigger, still debating with JKaen.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293069
Response to Bigger referencing WW13. Rowain says: "In WW13 you were a wolf. More to the point you were the wolf who convinced the village to lynch somebody else but you although it had been clear that you were lying. Interesting that the victim you got lynched was wolf thestick then."
I don't really see what's interesting about Bigger getting Thestick lynched in WW13.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293136
Nearing deadline, Rowain wants to push an Uberfish-wagon.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293156
Responds to Thestick's role claim with a triple banghead. I guess he believed Thestick's claim then.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293175
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293198
Says Thestick plays like a villager with a power role, at the same time admitting he could be a wolf.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293235
Jokingly says Gaspar's late Thestick vote was scummy - interestingly before Thestick's alignment has been revealed.

Regarding Uberfish:
He had a strange attack on me yesterday, which I couldn't quite figure out. Seemed a very unsubtle attempt to discredit me. But maybe he was hoping I'd OMGUS vote him back, getting me off Thestick, and getting everybody else to ignore me and Uberfish, since we were obviously just villagers infighting.

I find Rowain more suspicious than Uberfish, though. And there are others with some 'splaining to do too.

[Rowain]

Thirdly, if I were a wolf and there were 6 or 7 of us, I would have immediately put one wolf voting on Thestick. The reason being, he could either do a late jump for extra saving effort, or stay there if the situation was lost and gain some cover. I guess Bigger and Merovech are the ones fitting this bill, but Bigger is unlikely to be wolf IMO due to the late swing of votes on him.

Merovech did a last minuteswitch (well 10 minutes before) to Bigger to 'press him'.
OTOH the wolves did have a great opening to pile on Bigger instead of Mattimeo when (5 hours before lynch) Lewwyn switched to Bigger making it 4:3 (thestick:Bigger) with everybody else only having 2 votes.

Instead they used the opening Serdoa gave them with thispost:

thestick
I'd rather lynch Mattimeo tbh, but I don't expect to get much help with that, so back to thestick.

which was followed by:

I'd vote Matt over thestick, I really didn't like his post where he voted tasunke either.

and

I'll vote Mattimeo. I would like him to explain his reasoning with his change of heart.

and

I could get behind a Mattimeo lynch. I agree w/ Uberfish and Mattimeo's original observation (I think it was Uber, might be Novice, net too flaky to check) that Tasunke claiming Vanilla Villager isn't an observation that slides the probability distribution at all.

Then Serdoa switches back and TT jumps on the waggon too (+uberfish) pushing Mattimeo in the lead.

After the claim people choose different targets with 2 exceptions: Both pindicator and TT go to unvote.
Only after thestick gained alot of votes we get a gem from pindictor defending uberfish and voting thestick (at that time it doesn't matter as thestick has a comfortable lead.

Uberfish has read like someone who is genuinely busy IRL. His misunderstanding a lot of posts that are directed at him look like someone who is trying to keep up by skimming since they don't have a lot of time, and he's missing because of that.

I think a wolf would try to be a little more careful, so I'm leaning village for uberfish. I'll have a better read after day 2, i think.
thestick's silence is the most suspicious thing i can spot right now. Why the disappearance?

Also at this time TT decides that thestick is scummy. 20 mins before lynch the stick leads 11:5 vs Bigger.

After Catwalk left Bigger (making it 11:4) Sareln moves to Bigger and Merovech moves from thestick to Bigger with an absolute ridicolous claim (putting pressure 10 minutes before lynch ) And now with 10:6 pindicator decides to switch to Merovech (leaving thestick) bringing Bigger another step closer to the gallow (9:6). uberfishs vote and catwalks return brings us the final result (9:8).

[Rowain]

I find it interesting that the Bigger BW only started after Catwalk made thesticks lead a bit greater. I also find pindicators voting pattern strange and Merovechs swing is screaming wolf so loud that I queston if a wolf could be that obvious.

[novice]

Wow i'm impressed!
I honestly thought all the piles were just paranoia, still we got one!!
What role did thestick/merovech claim? I think I missed it somewhere?

Maybe I'm just bad at this tasunke, but I don't see any "obvwolfs" yet.

There's plenty of information now to analyze to find wolves. Finding out what people claimed, for example, is quite doable.

Thestick claimed 2-shot watcher, which was his actual role except he had unlimited shots. He could watch a target and see who else performs night actions on that target.

Mattimeo claimed 3-shot cloaker. He can render his target immune to all night actions, including kills.

[novice]

I find it interesting that the Bigger BW only started after Catwalk made thesticks lead a bit greater. I also find pindicators voting pattern strange and Merovechs swing is screaming wolf so loud that I queston if a wolf could be that obvious.

Yeah I think you make some good points and observations here, Rowain. We have too many leads.

[Rowain]

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post292719
Tries to descredit my case on Thestick, saying I'm quoting him selectively (which happened to be true) and also saying I'm just following Zak (which happened to be false).

Are you kidding me?? zak posted his accussation of thestick here. Your interpretation of zaks reasons happened 40 Mins later here while you were still voting Tasunke!!!
Your switch to thestick needed 5 more hours to happen. So please don't try to paint yourself as comming to thesticks scummyness all of yourself.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293025
Responds to Pindicator calling him less energetic than normal with "You are quite right but sometimes the leopard tries to change his spots". Doesn't explain why being less energetic is something a leopard would want. Also elaborates on why he's voting Bigger by saying he jumps on bandwagons.

I read abit like beeing a little less all over the thread than else.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293069
Response to Bigger referencing WW13. Rowain says: "In WW13 you were a wolf. More to the point you were the wolf who convinced the village to lynch somebody else but you although it had been clear that you were lying. Interesting that the victim you got lynched was wolf thestick then."
I don't really see what's interesting about Bigger getting Thestick lynched in WW13.

Bigger briought up WW13 as his defense. Imo it is another reason why I'm not so sure we should clear him.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293156
Responds to Thestick's role claim with a triple banghead. I guess he believed Thestick's claim then.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293175
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293198
Says Thestick plays like a villager with a power role, at the same time admitting he could be a wolf.

Yes I did believe him and it fits with my expactation how thestick would play with a PR.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post293235
Jokingly says Gaspar's late Thestick vote was scummy - interestingly before Thestick's alignment has been revealed.

Had it not been Gaspar I would not have made this comment.

[Serdoa]

... it seems obvious that thestick was thrown under the bus. He had obvious activity problems (in PBEM42 as well), so they may have decided to do a sacrifice gambit and try to gain deep cover in the process.

Interesting idea catwalk. Care to explain why you wrote this

I think thestick has been voted up too easily for him to be mafia. He's been around (based on PBEM42), just hasn't had time to read and think. If he was mafia, I think he'd have been fed some lines to put out to avoid suspicion. Same goes for Mattimeo.

earlier in the thread? First you tell us not to go for thestick because he got voted up too easily. And that he has been around (based on PBEM42). And now you tell us that it is obvious that thestick was thrown under the bus because he had activity issues (based on PBEM42). Maybe it is me, but how can the same reasoning (PBEM42) be used for his activity and his non-activity?

I think you are just a wolf who tries to make himself look better.

[Rowain]

We have too many leads.

True and a lot of new players where we have no read at all. BTW what happened with waterbat? He voted thestick early on then switched to Injera because he preffered you over zak as mayor and then vanished.

[novice]

Are you kidding me?? zak posted his accussation of thestick here. Your interpretation of zaks reasons happened 40 Mins later here while you were still voting Tasunke!!!
Your switch to thestick needed 5 more hours to happen. So please don't try to paint yourself as comming to thesticks scummyness all of yourself.

I'm not kidding, and I think I deserve major village cred for nailing Thestick. But I'm not going to hammer the point, at least not until you guys try to policy lynch me later on.

My post 40 minutes after Zakalwe's was written on a cellphone while doing other stuff and was in fact a crosspost, as I've already said once before. I don't really care if you believe me, but if you want som "evidence", during those 40 minutes Zak and Gaspar had a nice little discussion on policy lynching me which I didn't comment on at all in my post because I had in fact not read it.

The reason it took 5 hours from stating my Thestick suspicion until voting him was because I was waiting for Tasunke to answer my questions before I moved my vote. I was always intending to vote Thestick.

[Catwalk]

... it seems obvious that thestick was thrown under the bus. He had obvious activity problems (in PBEM42 as well), so they may have decided to do a sacrifice gambit and try to gain deep cover in the process.

Interesting idea catwalk. Care to explain why you wrote this

I think thestick has been voted up too easily for him to be mafia. He's been around (based on PBEM42), just hasn't had time to read and think. If he was mafia, I think he'd have been fed some lines to put out to avoid suspicion. Same goes for Mattimeo.

earlier in the thread? First you tell us not to go for thestick because he got voted up too easily. And that he has been around (based on PBEM42). And now you tell us that it is obvious that thestick was thrown under the bus because he had activity issues (based on PBEM42). Maybe it is me, but how can the same reasoning (PBEM42) be used for his activity and his non-activity?

I think you are just a wolf who tries to make himself look better.

I wrote that he's been around but busy based on his posts in the WW thread and in PBEM42. He's not been completely gone. I was arguing that wolves would have tossed him some life savers long ago rather than let him sink this fast, and I still can't believe they didn't. That was my main argument for thestick being innocent. I didn't believe that the wolves A) allowed votes to accumulate on him that easily, and B) didn't help him post something more meaningful than the death wishes.

The second post was made with new knowledge, namely that thestick was a wolf and I looked like a fool. The only explanation for these events that I can see is that the wolves didn't really care to save him, possibly because he was busy and possibly trying to gain town credibility.

I said both places that he had activity issues. The first post said that he was around, but without much time. The second post said he wasn't very active. I can see how it can be misunderstood, but I don't think I'm contradicting myself.